메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 125, Issue 10, 1997, Pages 2427-2459

Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 0001193751     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2427:SREFOQ>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (164)

References (67)
  • 1
    • 0000472263 scopus 로고
    • A cumulus parameterization scheme utilizing a one-dimensional cloud model
    • Anthes, R. A., 1977: A cumulus parameterization scheme utilizing a one-dimensional cloud model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 270-286.
    • (1977) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.105 , pp. 270-286
    • Anthes, R.A.1
  • 2
    • 0020860204 scopus 로고
    • Regional models of the atmosphere in middle latitudes
    • _, 1983: Regional models of the atmosphere in middle latitudes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1306-1335.
    • (1983) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.111 , pp. 1306-1335
  • 3
    • 0002028408 scopus 로고
    • The general question of predictability
    • P. S. Ray, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • _, 1986: The general question of predictability. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting. P. S. Ray, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 636-656.
    • (1986) Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting , pp. 636-656
  • 4
    • 0001728647 scopus 로고
    • Development of hydrostatic models suitable for air pollution and other mesometeorological studies
    • _, and T. T. Warner, 1978: Development of hydrostatic models suitable for air pollution and other mesometeorological studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 1045-1078.
    • (1978) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.106 , pp. 1045-1078
    • Warner, T.T.1
  • 6
    • 0001241791 scopus 로고
    • Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. Part I
    • Arakawa, A., and W. H. Schubert, 1974: Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. Part I. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 674-701.
    • (1974) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.31 , pp. 674-701
    • Arakawa, A.1    Schubert, W.H.2
  • 7
    • 0000094119 scopus 로고
    • Computational design of the basic dynamical process of the UCLA general circulation model
    • _, and V. R. Lamb, 1977: Computational design of the basic dynamical process of the UCLA general circulation model. Methods Comput. Phys., 17, 173-265.
    • (1977) Methods Comput. Phys. , vol.17 , pp. 173-265
    • Lamb, V.R.1
  • 8
    • 0001781778 scopus 로고
    • Examination of actual analysis differences for use in Monte Carlo forecasting
    • Preprints, Los Angeles, CA, NOAA/NWS/NMC/CAC
    • Augustine S. J., S. L. Mullen, and D. P. Baumhefner, 1991: Examination of actual analysis differences for use in Monte Carlo forecasting. Preprints, 16th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Los Angeles, CA, NOAA/NWS/NMC/CAC, 375-378.
    • (1991) 16th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop , pp. 375-378
    • Augustine, S.J.1    Mullen, S.L.2    Baumhefner, D.P.3
  • 9
    • 0000085181 scopus 로고
    • A technique for maximizing details in numerical weather map analyses
    • Barnes, S. L., 1964: A technique for maximizing details in numerical weather map analyses. J. Appl. Meteor., 3, 396-409.
    • (1964) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.3 , pp. 396-409
    • Barnes, S.L.1
  • 11
  • 12
    • 0020343029 scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of lateral boundary errors in a limited-domain model
    • _, and D. J. Perkey, 1982: Evaluation of lateral boundary errors in a limited-domain model. Tellus, 34, 409-428.
    • (1982) Tellus , vol.34 , pp. 409-428
    • Perkey, D.J.1
  • 13
    • 0002736912 scopus 로고
    • High resolution models of the planetary boundary layer
    • Blackadar, A. K., 1979: High resolution models of the planetary boundary layer. Adv. Environ. Sci. Eng., 1(1), 50-85.
    • (1979) Adv. Environ. Sci. Eng. , vol.1 , Issue.1 , pp. 50-85
    • Blackadar, A.K.1
  • 14
    • 0003010182 scopus 로고
    • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
    • Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
    • (1950) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.78 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.W.1
  • 15
    • 84977706563 scopus 로고
    • New technology and numerical weather prediction wasted opportunity?
    • Brooks, H. E., and C. A. Doswell III, 1993: New technology and numerical weather prediction wasted opportunity? Weather, 48, 173-177.
    • (1993) Weather , vol.48 , pp. 173-177
    • Brooks, H.E.1    Doswell III, C.A.2
  • 17
    • 0022830561 scopus 로고
    • Estimates of global analysis error from the global weather experiment observational network
    • Daley, R., and T. Mayer, 1986: Estimates of global analysis error from the global weather experiment observational network. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1642-1653.
    • (1986) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.114 , pp. 1642-1653
    • Daley, R.1    Mayer, T.2
  • 19
    • 0000165587 scopus 로고
    • A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories
    • Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 985-987.
    • (1969) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.8 , pp. 985-987
    • Epstein, E.S.1
  • 21
    • 0023512287 scopus 로고
    • Predictability experiments using a high-resolution and limited-area model
    • _, and D. P. Baumhefner, 1987: Predictability experiments using a high-resolution and limited-area model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 488-504.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 488-504
    • Baumhefner, D.P.1
  • 22
    • 0026295986 scopus 로고
    • Semiprognostic tests of cumulus parameterization schemes in the middle latitudes
    • Grell, G., Y.-H. Kuo, and R. Pasch, 1991: Semiprognostic tests of cumulus parameterization schemes in the middle latitudes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 5-31.
    • (1991) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.119 , pp. 5-31
    • Grell, G.1    Kuo, Y.-H.2    Pasch, R.3
  • 23
    • 0027835303 scopus 로고
    • Characteristics of surface cyclone forecasts in the aviation run of the global spectral model
    • Grumm, R. H., 1993: Characteristics of surface cyclone forecasts in the aviation run of the global spectral model. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 87-112.
    • (1993) Wea. Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 87-112
    • Grumm, R.H.1
  • 24
    • 0002752295 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Random and systematic error in NMC's ETA short-range ETA ensembles
    • Preprints, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1996: Random and systematic error in NMC's ETA short-range ETA ensembles. Preprints, 13th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences. San Francisco, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 51-56.
    • (1996) 13th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences , pp. 51-56
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Colucci, S.J.2
  • 25
    • 0002897679 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts
    • _, and _, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312-1327.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 1312-1327
  • 26
    • 0021050794 scopus 로고
    • Lagged-average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting
    • Hoffman, R. N., and E. Kalnay. 1983: Lagged-average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting. Tellus, 35, 100-118.
    • (1983) Tellus , vol.35 , pp. 100-118
    • Hoffman, R.N.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 27
    • 0000166579 scopus 로고
    • The regional analysis and forecast system of the National Meterological Center
    • Hoke, J. E. N. A. Phillips, G. J. DiMego, J. J. Tucillo, and J. G. Sela, 1989: The regional analysis and forecast system of the National Meterological Center. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 323-334.
    • (1989) Wea. Forecasting , vol.4 , pp. 323-334
    • Hoke, J.E.1    Phillips, N.A.2    DiMego, G.J.3    Tucillo, J.J.4    Sela, J.G.5
  • 28
    • 0000078604 scopus 로고
    • Smoothing and filtering of time series and space fields
    • Academic Press
    • Holloway, J. L., Jr., 1958: Smoothing and filtering of time series and space fields. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 4, Academic Press, 351-389.
    • (1958) Advances in Geophysics , vol.4 , pp. 351-389
    • Holloway Jr., J.L.1
  • 29
    • 0021489824 scopus 로고
    • Numerical simulation of frontogenesis in a moist atmosphere
    • Hsie, E.-Y., R. A. Anthes, and D. Keyser, 1984: Numerical simulation of frontogenesis in a moist atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 2581-2594.
    • (1984) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.41 , pp. 2581-2594
    • Hsie, E.-Y.1    Anthes, R.A.2    Keyser, D.3
  • 30
    • 0024189601 scopus 로고
    • The influence of isolated observations on short-range numerical weather forecasts
    • Kallen, E., and X.-Y. Huang, 1988: The influence of isolated observations on short-range numerical weather forecasts. Tellus, 40A, 324-336.
    • (1988) Tellus , vol.40 A , pp. 324-336
    • Kallen, E.1    Huang, X.-Y.2
  • 31
    • 0001545604 scopus 로고
    • Further studies of the parameterization of the effect of cumulus convection on large-scale flow
    • Kuo, H. L., 1974: Further studies of the parameterization of the effect of cumulus convection on large-scale flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1232-1240.
    • (1974) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.31 , pp. 1232-1240
    • Kuo, H.L.1
  • 32
    • 0025655455 scopus 로고
    • Prediction of nine explosive cyclones over the western Atlantic with a regional model
    • Kuo, Y.-H., and S. Low-Nam, 1990: Prediction of nine explosive cyclones over the western Atlantic with a regional model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 3-25.
    • (1990) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.118 , pp. 3-25
    • Kuo, Y.-H.1    Low-Nam, S.2
  • 33
    • 0000630257 scopus 로고
    • Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
    • Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
    • (1974) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.102 , pp. 409-418
    • Leith, C.E.1
  • 34
    • 0024907895 scopus 로고
    • Consistent vertical and horizontal resolution
    • Lindzen, R. S., and M. Fox-Rabinowitz, 1989: Consistent vertical and horizontal resolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 2575-2583.
    • (1989) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.117 , pp. 2575-2583
    • Lindzen, R.S.1    Fox-Rabinowitz, M.2
  • 35
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 37
    • 0027801068 scopus 로고
    • The structure and evolution of a simulated midlatitude cyclone over land
    • Mass, C. F., and D. M. Schultz, 1993: The structure and evolution of a simulated midlatitude cyclone over land. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 889-917.
    • (1993) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.121 , pp. 889-917
    • Mass, C.F.1    Schultz, D.M.2
  • 39
    • 0024920840 scopus 로고
    • The impact of initial condition uncertainty on numerical simulations of large scale explosive cyclogenesis
    • Mullen, S. L., and D. P. Baumhefner, 1989: The impact of initial condition uncertainty on numerical simulations of large scale explosive cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 2289-2329.
    • (1989) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.117 , pp. 2289-2329
    • Mullen, S.L.1    Baumhefner, D.P.2
  • 40
    • 7044257941 scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo simulations of explosive cyclogenesis using a low-resolution, global spectral model
    • Preprints, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • _, and _, 1991: Monte Carlo simulations of explosive cyclogenesis using a low-resolution, global spectral model. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 750-751.
    • (1991) Ninth Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction , pp. 750-751
  • 41
    • 0028573983 scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo simulations of explosive cyclogenesis
    • _, and _, 1994: Monte Carlo simulations of explosive cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 1548-1567.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 1548-1567
  • 42
    • 0344702591 scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis with a limited-area, mesoscale model
    • Preprints, Portland, OR, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
    • _, and J. Du, 1994: Monte Carlo forecasts of explosive cyclogenesis with a limited-area, mesoscale model. Preprints, 10th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Portland, OR, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 638-640.
    • (1994) 10th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction , pp. 638-640
    • Du, J.1
  • 43
    • 0027430506 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations
    • Mureau, R., F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned perturbations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 299-323.
    • (1993) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.119 , pp. 299-323
    • Mureau, R.1    Molteni, F.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 44
    • 0000904064 scopus 로고
    • A note on the ranked probability score
    • Murphy, A. H., 1971: A note on the ranked probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 10, 155-156.
    • (1971) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.10 , pp. 155-156
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 45
    • 0024256681 scopus 로고
    • The impact of ensemble forecasts on predictability
    • Murphy, J. M., 1988: The impact of ensemble forecasts on predictability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114, 463-494.
    • (1988) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.114 , pp. 463-494
    • Murphy, J.M.1
  • 46
    • 3643105808 scopus 로고
    • Monthly relative frequencies of precipitation for the United States for 6-, 12-, and 24-h periods
    • NWS/NOAA/US Department of Commerce
    • NOAA, 1987: Monthly relative frequencies of precipitation for the United States for 6-, 12-, and 24-h periods. NOAA Tech. Rep. No. 39, NWS/NOAA/US Department of Commerce, 262 pp.
    • (1987) NOAA Tech. Rep. No. 39
  • 47
    • 85033286081 scopus 로고
    • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Climate Data Center
    • NOAA/NCDC, 1987: Storm Data. Vol. 29, No. 12, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Climate Data Center. 47 pp.
    • (1987) Storm Data , vol.29 , Issue.12
  • 48
    • 0025583770 scopus 로고
    • The Monte Carlo forecast
    • Palmer, T. N., R. Mureau, and F. Molteni, 1990: The Monte Carlo forecast. Weather, 45, 198-207.
    • (1990) Weather , vol.45 , pp. 198-207
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Mureau, R.2    Molteni, F.3
  • 49
    • 0026298560 scopus 로고
    • Model generation of spurious gravity waves due to inconsistency of the vertical and horizontal resolution
    • Persson, P. O. G., and T. T. Warner, 1991: Model generation of spurious gravity waves due to inconsistency of the vertical and horizontal resolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 917-935.
    • (1991) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.119 , pp. 917-935
    • Persson, P.O.G.1    Warner, T.T.2
  • 50
    • 0027837178 scopus 로고
    • Numerical simulation of the large-amplitude mesoscale gravity-wave event of 15 December 1987 in central United states
    • Powers, J. G., and R. J. Reed, 1993: Numerical simulation of the large-amplitude mesoscale gravity-wave event of 15 December 1987 in central United states. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121,2285-2308.
    • (1993) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.121 , pp. 2285-2308
    • Powers, J.G.1    Reed, R.J.2
  • 52
    • 0038900717 scopus 로고
    • Variability in successive operational model forecasts of maritime cyclogenesis
    • Roebber, P. J., 1990: Variability in successive operational model forecasts of maritime cyclogenesis. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 586-595.
    • (1990) Wea. Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 586-595
    • Roebber, P.J.1
  • 53
    • 0027798795 scopus 로고
    • A case study of self-development as an antecedent conditioning process in explosive cyclogenesis
    • _, 1993: A case study of self-development as an antecedent conditioning process in explosive cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 976-1006.
    • (1993) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.121 , pp. 976-1006
  • 54
    • 0000394548 scopus 로고
    • Analytic solutions of the non-linear omega and vorticity equations for a structurally simple model of disturbances in the baroclinic westerlies
    • Sanders, F., 1971: Analytic solutions of the non-linear omega and vorticity equations for a structurally simple model of disturbances in the baroclinic westerlies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 393-408.
    • (1971) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.99 , pp. 393-408
    • Sanders, F.1
  • 55
    • 0022876662 scopus 로고
    • Trends in skill of Boston forecasts made at MIT 1966-84
    • _, 1986: Trends in skill of Boston forecasts made at MIT 1966-84. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 67, 170-176.
    • (1986) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.67 , pp. 170-176
  • 56
    • 0001806259 scopus 로고
    • Skill of operational models in cyclone prediction out to five-days during ERICA
    • _, 1992: Skill of operational models in cyclone prediction out to five-days during ERICA. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 3-25.
    • (1992) Wea. Forecasting , vol.7 , pp. 3-25
  • 57
    • 0019172179 scopus 로고
    • Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the "bomb"
    • _, and J. R. Gyakum, 1980: Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the "bomb." Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1589-1606.
    • (1980) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.108 , pp. 1589-1606
    • Gyakum, J.R.1
  • 58
    • 0000322510 scopus 로고
    • The critical success index as an indicator of warning skill
    • Schaefer, J. T., 1990: The critical success index as an indicator of warning skill. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 570-575.
    • (1990) Wea. Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 570-575
    • Schaefer, J.T.1
  • 59
    • 0000320623 scopus 로고
    • Large-amplitude mesoscale wave disturbances with the intense Midwestern extratropical cyclone of 15 December 1987
    • Schneider, R. S., 1990: Large-amplitude mesoscale wave disturbances with the intense Midwestern extratropical cyclone of 15 December 1987. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 533-558.
    • (1990) Wea. Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 533-558
    • Schneider, R.S.1
  • 60
    • 0027838868 scopus 로고
    • An evaluation of sea-level cyclone forecasts produced by NMC's Nested Grid Model and Global Spectral Model
    • Smith, B. B., and S. L. Mullen, 1993: An evaluation of sea-level cyclone forecasts produced by NMC's Nested Grid Model and Global Spectral Model. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 37-56.
    • (1993) Wea. Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 37-56
    • Smith, B.B.1    Mullen, S.L.2
  • 61
    • 0028668507 scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environment. Part II: Generation of a mesoscale initial condition
    • Stensrud, D. J., and J. M. Fritsch, 1994a: Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environment. Part II: Generation of a mesoscale initial condition. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2068-2083.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 2068-2083
    • Stensrud, D.J.1    Fritsch, J.M.2
  • 62
    • 0028668503 scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environment. Part III: Numerical simulations and implications for operational forecasting
    • _, and _, 1994b: Mesoscale convective systems in weakly forced large-scale environment. Part III: Numerical simulations and implications for operational forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2084-2104.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 2084-2104
  • 63
    • 0001509508 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
    • (1993) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.74 , pp. 2317-2330
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 64
    • 0027705108 scopus 로고
    • Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects
    • Tracton, M. S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 378-398.
    • (1993) Wea. Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 378-398
    • Tracton, M.S.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 67
    • 0024189976 scopus 로고
    • A comparison of explicit and implicit prediction of convective and stratiforrn precipitating weather systems with a meso-β scale numerical model
    • Zhang, D.-L., E.-Y. Hsie, and M. W. Moncrieff, 1988: A comparison of explicit and implicit prediction of convective and stratiforrn precipitating weather systems with a meso-β scale numerical model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 114, 31-60.
    • (1988) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.114 , pp. 31-60
    • Zhang, D.-L.1    Hsie, E.-Y.2    Moncrieff, M.W.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.