Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 127, Issue 577, 2001, Pages 2473-2489

  Richardson, D S ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Brier score; Reliability diagram

Indexed keywords

EARTH ATMOSPHERE; PREDICTIVE CONTROL SYSTEMS; PROBABILITY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (EPS); RELIABILITY DIAGRAM;

METEOROLOGICAL PROBLEMS;

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FORECASTING METHOD; PREDICTION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0035473127     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1256/smsqj.57714     Document Type: Article

References (9)

1. A note on the utility of probabilistic predictions and the probability score in the cost-loss ratio decision situation
2. The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation
3. On the relationship between the accuracy and value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation
4. A general framework for forecast verification
5. Skill and economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
6. The complex relationship between forecast skill and forecast value: A real-world analysis
7. Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems
8. Potential economic value of ensemble forecasts