Modelling Reintroduced Populations: The State of the Art and Future Directions

Reintroduction Biology: Integrating Science and Management

Volumn , Issue , 2012, Pages 165-222

  Armstrong, Doug P ^a   Reynolds, Michelle H ^b  

^a MASSEY UNIVERSITY   (New Zealand)

^b U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

Allee effects; Bayesian updating, in WinBUGS; Declining population paradigm; Meta population models; Model building principles; Modeling, reintroduced populations; Population models, population size prediction; Reintroduction biology; Small population paradigm; Structured decision making

Indexed keywords

EID: 84862245858     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1002/9781444355833.ch6     Document Type: Chapter

References (172)

1. Akaike, H. (1973) Information theory as an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In Second International Symposium on Information Theory, eds B.N. Petrov & F. Csaki, pp. 267-281. Akademiai Kiado, Budapest, Hungary.
2. Akçakaya, H.R. & Root, W. (2002a) RAMAS GIS: linking spatial data with population viability analysis (version 4.0). Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York, USA.
3. Akçakaya, H.R. & Root, W. (2002b) RAMAS Metapop: viability analysis for stagestructured metapopulations (version 4.0). Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York, USA.
4. Akçakaya, H.R., Burgman, M.A. & Ginzburg, L.V. (1999) Applied population Ecology, 2nd edition. Sinauer, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA.
5. Akçakaya, H.R., McCarthy, M.A. & Pearce, J.L. (1995) Linking landscape data with population viability analysis - management options for the helmeted honeyeater Lichenostomus melanops cassidix. Biological Conservation, 73, 169-176.
6. Angulo, E, Roemer, G.W., Berec, L. et al. (2007) Double Allee effects and extinction in the island fox. Conservation Biology, 21, 567-577.
7. Armstrong, D.P. & Davidson, R.S. (2006) Developing population models for guiding reintroductions of extirpated bird species back to the New Zealand mainland. New Zealand Journal of Ecology, 30, 73-85.
8. Armstrong, D.P. & Ewen, J.G. (2001a) Assessing the value of follow-up translocations: a case study using New Zealand robins. Biological Conservation, 101, 239-247.
9. Armstrong, D.P. & Ewen, J.G. (2001b) Estimating impacts of poison operations using mark-recapture analysis and population viability analysis: an example with New Zealand robins (Petroica australis). New Zealand Journal of Ecology, 25, 29-38.
10. Armstrong, D.P. & Ewen, J.G. (2002) Dynamics and viability of a New Zealand robin population reintroduced to regenerating fragmented habitat. Conservation Biology, 16, 1074-1085.
11. Armstrong, D.P. & Seddon, P.J. (2008) Directions in reintroduction biology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 23, 20-25.
12. Armstrong, D.P. & Wittmer, H.U. (2011) Incorporating Allee effects into reintroduction strategies. Ecological Research, 26, 687-695.
13. Armstrong, D.P., Castro, I. & Griffiths, R. (2007) Using adaptive management to determine requirements of re-introduced populations: the case of the New Zealand hihi. Journal of Applied Ecology, 44, 953-962.
14. Armstrong, D.P., Davidson, R.S., Dimond, W.J. et al. (2002) Population dynamics of reintroduced forest birds on New Zealand islands. Journal of Biogeography, 29, 609-621.
15. Armstrong, D.P., Davidson, R.S., Perrott, J.K. et al. (2005) Density-dependent population growth in a reintroduced population of North Island saddlebacks. Journal of Animal Ecology, 74, 160-170.
16. Armstrong, D.P., Raeburn, E.H., Lewis, R.M. et al. (2006) Estimating the viability of a reintroduced New Zealand robin population as a function of predator control. Journal of Wildlife Management, 70, 1020-1027.
17. Bach, L.A., Pedersen, R.B.F., Hayward, M.W. et al. (2010) Assessing re-introductions of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) in the Limpopo Valley Conservancy, South Africa, using the stochastic simulation program VORTEX. Journal for Nature Conservation, 18, 237-246.
18. Bakker, V.J., Doak, D.F., Roemer, G.W. et al. (2009) Incorporating ecological drivers and uncertainty into a demographic population viability analysis for the island fox. Ecological Monographs, 79, 77-108.
19. Bar-David, S., Saltz, D., Dayan, T. et al. (2008) Using spatially expanding populations as a tool for evaluating landscape planning: the reintroduced Persian fallow deer as a case study. Journal for Nature Conservation, 16, 164-174.
20. Barker, R.J., Schofield, M.R., Armstrong, D.P. et al. (2009) Bayesian hierarchical models for inference about population growth. In Modelling Demographic Processes in Marked Populations, eds D.L. Thomson, E.G. Cooch & M.J. Conroy, pp. 3-17. Springer, New York, USA.
21. Baveco, J.M. & Smeulders, A.M.W. (1994) Objects for simulation: smalltalk and ecology. Simulation, 62, 42-57.
22. Beissinger, S.R. & Westphal, M.I. (1998) On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management. Journal of Wildlife Management, 62, 821-841.
23. Boukal, D.S. & Berec, L. (2002) Single-species models of the Allee effect: extinction boundaries, sex ratios and mate encounters. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 218, 375-394.
24. Box, G.E.P. (1976) Science and statistics. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 71, 791-799.
25. Bretagnolle, V. & Inchausti, P. (2005) Modelling population reinforcement at a large spatial scale as a conservation strategy for the declining little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) in agricultural habitats. Animal Conservation, 8, 59-68.
26. Brook, B.W., Cannon, J.R., Lacy, R.C. et al. (1999) Comparison of the population viability packages GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS and VORTEX for the whooping crane (Grus americana). Animal Conservation, 2, 23-32.
27. Brook, B.W., Griffiths, A.D. & Puckey, H.L. (2002) Modelling strategies for the management of the critically endangered Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) of northern Australia. Journal of Environmental Management, 65, 355-368.
28. Brook, B.W., Lim, L., Harden, R. et al. (1997) Does population viability analysis software predict the behaviour of real populations? A retrospective study on the Lord Howe Island woodhen. Biological Conservation, 82, 119-128.
29. Brooks, S. P., King, R. & Morgan, B.J.T. (2004) A Bayesian approach to combining animal abundance and demographic data. Animal Biodiversity and Conservation, 27, 515-529.
30. Burnham, K.P. & Anderson, D.R. (2002) Model Selection and Multimodal Inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edition. Springer-Verlag, New York, USA.
31. Bustmante, J. (1996) Population viability analysis of captive and released bearded vulture populations. Conservation Biology, 10, 822-831.
32. Cade, T.J. (2007) Exposure of California condors to lead from spent ammunition. Journal of Wildlife Management, 71, 2125-2133.
33. Carroll, C., Phillips, M.K., Schumaker, N.H. et al. (2003) Impacts of landscape change on wolf restoration success: planning a reintroduction program based on static and dynamic spatial models. Conservation Biology, 17, 536-548.
34. Caughley, G. (1994) Directions in conservation biology. Journal of Animal Ecology, 63, 215-244.
35. Chapron, G., Wielgus, R., Quenette, P.Y. et al. (2009) Diagnosing mechanisms of decline and planning for recovery of an endangered brown bear (Ursus arctos) population. PLOS ONE, 4 (10), article e7568.
36. Clark, J.D. & Eastridge, R. (2006) Growth and sustainability of black bears at White River National Wildlife Refuge, Arkansas. Journal of Wildlife Management, 70, 1094-1101.
37. Conroy, M.J. & Carroll, J.P. (2009) Quantitative Conservation of Vertebrates. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK.
38. Courchamp. F., Berec, L. & Gascoigne, J. (2008) Allee Effects in Ecology and Conservation. Oxford University Press, New York, USA.
39. Cramer, P.C.&Portier, K.M. (2001) Modeling Florida panther movements in response to human attributes of the landscape and ecological settings. Ecological Modelling, 140, 51-80.
40. Crone, E.E., Pickering, D.&Schultz, C.B. (2007) Can captive rearing promote recovery of endangered butterflies? An assessment in the face of uncertainty. Biological Conservation, 139, 103-112.
41. Curtis, J.M.R. & Naujokaitis-Lewis, I. (2008) Sensitivity of population viability to spatial and nonspatial parameters using grip. Ecological Applications, 18, 1002-1013.
42. Dawson, T.P., Jackson, S.T., House, J.I. et al. (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science, 332, 53-58.
43. Deredec, A.&Courchamp, F. (2007) Importance of the Allee effect for reintroductions. Ecoscience, 4, 440-451.
44. Dickens, M.J., Delehanty, D.J. & Romero, L.M. (2010) Stress: an inevitable component of animal translocation. Biological Conservation, 143, 1329-1341.
45. Dimond, W.J. & Armstrong, D.P. (2007) Adaptive harvesting of source populations for translocation: a case study with New Zealand robins. Conservation Biology, 21, 114-124.
46. Eastridge, R. & Clark, J.D. (2001) Evaluation of two soft-release techniques to reintroduce black bears. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 29, 1163-1174.
47. Evans, R.J., Wilson, J.D., Amar, A. et al. (2009) Growth and demography of a re-introduced population of white-tailed Eagles Haliaeetus albicilla. Ibis, 151, 244-254.
48. Ewen, J.G., Acevedo-Whitehouse, K., Alley, M. et al. (2011) Empirical consideration of parasites and health in reintroduction. In Reintroduction Biology: integrating science and management, eds J.G. Ewen, D.P. Armstrong, K.A. Parker & P.J. Seddon, Chapter 9. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
49. Fernandez, N., Kramer-Schadt, S. & Thulke, H.H. (2006) Viability and risk assessment in species restoration: planning reintroductions for the wild boar, a potential disease reservoir. Ecology and Society, 11, 6.
50. Ferriere, R., Sarrazin, F., Legendre, S. et al. (1996) Matrix population models applied to viability analysis and conservation: theory and practice using the ULM software. Acta Oecologica - International Journal of Ecology, 17, 629-656.
51. Ferson, S. & Akçakaya, H.R. (1991) RAMAS/age User Manual: modelling fluctuations in age-structured populations. Exeter Software/Applied Biomathematics, New York, USA.
52. Fieberg, J. & Ellner, S.P. (2000) When is it meaningful to estimate an extinction probability? Ecology, 81, 2040-2047.
53. Gilad, O., Grant, W.E.&Saltz, D. (2008) Simulated dynamics of Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) in the Israeli Negev: effects of migration corridors and post-reintroduction changes in natality on population viability. Ecological Modelling, 210, 169-178.
54. Green, R.E., Pienkowski, M.W. & Love, J.A. (1996) Long-term viability of the reintroduced population of the white-tailed eagle Haliaeetus albicilla in Scotland. Journal of Applied Ecology, 33, 357-368.
55. Griffith, B., Scott, J.M., Carpenter, J.W. et al. (1989) Translocation as a species conservation tool - status and strategy. Science, 245, 477-480.
56. Groombridge, J.J., Raisin, C., Bristol, R. et al. (2011) Genetic consequences of reintroductions and insights from population history. In Reintroduction Biology: integrating science and management, eds J.G. Ewen, D.P. Armstrong, K.A. Parker & P.J. Seddon, Chapter 12. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
57. Gusset, M., Jakoby, O., Muller, M.S. et al. (2009) Dogs on the catwalk: modelling re-introduction and translocation of endangered wild dogs in South Africa. Biological Conservation, 142, 2774-2781.
58. Haig, S.M., Belthoff, J.R. & Allen, D.H. (1993) Population viability analysis for a small population of red-cockaded woodpeckers and an evaluation of enhancement strategies. Conservation Biology, 7, 289-301.
59. Haines, A.M., Tewes, M.E., Laack, L.L. et al. (2006) A habitat-based population viability analysis for ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) in the United States. Biological Conservation, 132, 424-436.
60. Hamilton, L.P., Kelly, P.A., Williams, D.F. et al. (2010) Factors associated with survival of reintroduced riparian brush rabbits in California. Biological Conservation, 143, 999-1007.
61. Hardman, B. &Moro, D. (2006) Optimising reintroduction success by delayed dispersal: is the release protocol important for hare-wallabies? Biological Conservation, 128, 403-411.
62. Haydon, D.T., Morales, J.M., Yott, A. et al. (2008) Socially informed random walks: incorporating group dynamics into models of population spread and growth. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, 275, 1101-1109.
63. High Performance Systems (2001) An introduction to systems thinking; http://www.hpsinc.com.
64. Hilborn, R. & Mangel, M. (1997) The Ecological Detective: confronting models with data. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
65. Holland, E.P., Burrow, J.F., Dythama, C. et al. (2009) Modelling with uncertainty: introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics. Ecological Modelling, 220, 1203-1217.
66. Holling, C.S. (1978) Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK.
67. Hood, G. M. (2010) PopTools version 3.2.3; http://www.poptools.org.
68. Howells, O. & Edwards-Jones, G. (1997) A feasibility study of reintroducing wild boar Sus scrofa to Scotland: are existing woodlands large enough to support minimum viable populations? Biological Conservation, 81, 77-89.
69. Jamieson, I.G. & Lacy, R.C. (2011) Managing genetic issues in reintroduction biology. In Reintroduction biology: integrating science and management, eds J.G. Ewen, D.P. Armstrong, K.A. Parker & P.J. Seddon, Chapter 13. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
70. Johnson, J.B.&Ormland, K.S. (2004) Model selection in ecology and evolution. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 19, 101-108.
71. Kauffman, M.J., Frick, W.F. & Linthicum, J. (2003) Estimation of habitat-specific demography and population growth for peregrine falcons in California. Ecological Applications, 13, 1802-1816.
72. Kauffman, M.J., Pollock, J.F. & Walton, B. (2004) Spatial structure, dispersal, and management of a recovering raptor population. American Naturalist, 164, 582-597.
73. Keedwell, R.J. (2004) Use of population viability analysis in conservation management in New Zealand. In Science for Conservation 243. New Zealand Department of Conservation, Wellington, New Zealand.
74. Keller, L.K., Biebach, I., Ewing, S.R. et al. (2011) The genetics of reintroductions: inbreeding and genetic drift. In Reintroduction Biology: integrating science and management, eds J.G. Ewen, D.P. Armstrong, K.A. Parker & P.J. Seddon, Chapter 11. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
75. King, R., Morgan, B.J., Gimenez, O. et al. (2010) Bayesian Analysis for Population Ecology. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
76. Kinley, T.A. & Newhouse, N.J. (2008) Ecology and translocation-aided recovery of an endangered badger population. Journal of Wildife Management, 72, 113-122.
77. Kohlmann, S.G., Schmidt, G.A.&Garcelon, D.K. (2005)Apopulation viability analysis for the Island Fox on Santa Catalina Island, California. Ecological Modelling, 183, 77-94.
78. Kramer-Schadt, S., Revilla, E. & Wiegand, T. (2005) Lynx reintroductions in fragmented landscapes of Germany: projects with a future or misunderstood wildlife conservation. Biological Conservation, 125, 169-182.
79. Lacy, R.C., Borbat, M. & Pollak, J.P. (2005) VORTEX: a stochastic simulation of the extinction process. Chicago Zoological Society, Brookfield, Illinois, USA.
80. Leaper, R., Massei, G., Gorman, M.L. et al. (1999) The feasibility of reintroducing wild boar (Sus scrofa) to Scotland. Mammal Review, 29, 239-259.
81. Leech, T.J., Craig, E., Beaven, B. et al. (2007) Reintroduction of rifleman Acanthisitta chloris to Ulva Island, New Zealand: evaluation of techniques and population persistence. Oryx, 41, 369-375.
82. Legendre, S. & Clobert, J. (1995) ULM, a software for conservation and evolutionary biologists. Journal of Applied Statistics, 22, 817-834.
83. Le Gouar, P., Mihoub, J.-B. & Sarrazin, F. (2011) Dispersal and habitat selection: behavioural and spatial constraints for animal translocations. In Reintroduction Biology: integrating science and management, eds J.G. Ewen, D.P. Armstrong, K.A. Parker & P.J. Seddon, Chapter 5. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
84. Lennartsson, T. (2002) Extinction thresholds and disrupted plant-pollinator interactions in fragmented plant populations. Ecology, 83, 3060-3072.
85. Léon-Cortés, J.L., Lennon, J.J. & Thomas, C.D. (2003) Ecological dynamics of extinct species in empty habitat networks. 1. The role of habitat pattern and quantity, stochasticity and dispersal. Oikos, 102, 449-464.
86. Leslie, P.H. (1945) On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika, 33, 183-212.
87. Liu, G.H., Zhou, J., Huang, D.S. et al. (2004) Spatial and temporal dynamics of a restored population of Oryza rufipogon in Huli Marsh, South China. Restoration Ecology, 12, 456-463.
88. Lloyd, B.D. & Powlesland, R.G. (1994) The decline of kakapo Strigops habroptilus and attempts at conservation by translocation. Biological Conservation, 69,75-85.
89. Lloyd, J.D., Slater, G.L. & Snow, S. (2009) Demography of reintroduced eastern bluebirds and brown-headed nuthatches. Journal of Wildife Management, 73, 955-964.
90. Macdonald, D.W., Tattersall, F.H., Rushton, S. (2000) Reintroducing the beaver (Castor fiber) to Scotland: a protocol for identifying and assessing suitable release sites. Animal Conservation, 3, 125-133.
91. Mackey, R.L., Page, B.R., Grobler, D. et al. (2009) Modelling the effectiveness of contraception for controlling introduced populations of elephant in South Africa. African Journal of Ecology, 47, 747-755.
92. Marshall, K. & Edwards-Jones, G. (1998) Reintroducing capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) into southern Scotland: identification of minimum viable populations at potential release sites. Biodiversity and Conservation, 7, 275-296.
93. MathWorks (1992) MATLAB Reference Guide. MathWorks, Natick, Massachussets, USA.
94. Matson T., Goldizen, A.W. & Jarman, P.J. (2004) Factors affecting the success of translocations of the black-faced impala in Namibia. Biological Conservation, 116, 359-365.
95. Maunder, M.N. (2004) Population viability analysis based on combining Bayesian, integrated, and hierarchical analyses. Acta Oecologica, 26, 85-94.
96. McCallum, H., Timmers, P. & Hoyle, S. (1995) Modelling the impact of predation on reintroductions of bridled nailtail wallabies. Wildlife Research, 22, 163-171.
97. McCarthy, M.A. (2007) Bayesian Methods for Ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
98. McCarthy, M.A., Andelman, S.A. & Possingham, H.P. (2003) Reliability of relative predictions in population viability analysis. Conservation Biology, 17, 982-989.
99. McCarthy, M.A., Armstrong, D.P. & Runge, M.C. (2011) Adaptive management of reintroduction. In Reintroduction Biology: integrating science and management, eds J.G. Ewen, D.P. Armstrong, K.A. Parker&P.J. Seddon, Chapter 8. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
100. McCarthy, M.A., Franklin, D.C. & Burgman, M.A. (1994) The importance of demographic uncertainty: an example from the helmeted honeyeater Lichenostomus melanops cassidix. Conservation Biology, 67, 135-142.
101. MCleery, R.A., Lopez, R.R., Silvy, N.J. et al. (2005) Effectiveness of supplemental stockings for the endangered Key Largo woodrat. Biological Conservation, 124, 27-33.
102. McCullough, B.D. & Wilson, B. (2005) On the accuracy of statistical procedures in Microsoft Excel 2003. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 49, 1244-1252.
103. Menges, E.S. (2008) Restoration demography and genetics of plants: when is a translocation successful? Australian Journal of Botany, 56, 187-196.
104. Meriggi, A., Della Stella, R.M., Brangi, A. et al. (2007) The reintroduction of grey and red-legged partridges (Perdix perdix and Alectoris rufa) in central Italy: a metapopulation approach. Italian Journal of Zoology, 74, 215-237.
105. Mihoub, J.B., Le Gouar, P. & Sarrazin, F. (2009) Breeding habitat selection behaviors in heterogeneous environments: implications for modeling reintroduction. Oikos, 118, 663-674.
106. Mitchell, N.J., Allendorf, F.W., Keall, S.N. et al. (2010) Demographic effects of temperature-dependent sex determination: will tuatara survive global warming? Global Change Biology, 16, 60-72.
107. Morgan, J.W. (1999) Have tubestock plantings successfully established populations of rare grassland species into reintroduction sites in western Victoria? Biological Conservation, 89, 235-243.
108. Münzbergová, Z., Milden, M., Ehrlen, J. et al. (2005) Population viability and reintroduction strategies: a spatially explicit landscape-level approach. Ecological Applications, 15, 1377-1386.
109. Muths, E. & Dreitz, V. (2008) Monitoring programs to assess reintroduction efforts: a critical component in recovery. Animal Biodiversity and Conservation, 31, 47-56.
110. Nichols, J.D. & Williams, B.K. (2006) Monitoring for conservation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 21, 668-673.
111. Nichols, J.D.&Armstrong, D.P. (2011) Monitoring for reintroductions. In Reintroduction Biology: integrating science and management, eds J.G. Ewen, D.P. Armstrong, K.A. Parker & P.J. Seddon, Chapter 7. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
112. Nicoll, M.A.C., Jones, C.G. & Norris, K. (2003) Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity. Journal of Animal Ecology, 72, 917-926.
113. Nolet, B.A. & Baveco, J.M. (1996) Development and viability of a translocated beaver Castor fiber population in the Netherlands. Biological Conservation, 75, 125-137.
114. Ortiz-Catedral, L. & Brunton, D.H. (2008) Clutch parameters and reproductive success of a translocated population of red-crowned parakeet (Cyanoramphus novaezelandiae). Australian Journal of Zoology, 56, 389-393.
115. Osborne, P.E. (2005) Key issues in assessing the feasibility of reintroducing the great bustard Otis tarda to Britain. Oryx, 39, 22-29.
116. Osborne, P.E. & Seddon, P.J. (2011) Selecting suitable habitats for reintroductions: variation, change and the role of species distribution modelling. In Reintroduction Biology: integrating science and management, eds J.G. Ewen, D.P. Armstrong, K.A. Parker & P.J. Seddon, Chapter 3. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
117. Palisade (2000) @RISK: advanced risk analysis for spreadsheets. Palisade Corporation, Newfield, New York, USA.
118. Pedrono, M., Smith, L.L., Clobert, J. et al. (2004) Wild-captive metapopulation viability analysis. Biological Conservation, 119, 463-473.
119. Pergams, O.R.W., Lacy, R.C. & Ashley, M.V. (2000) Conservation and management of Anacapa Island deer mice. Conservation Biology, 14, 819-832.
120. Perkins, D.W., Vickery, P.D. & Shriver, W.G. (2008) Population viability analysis of the Florida grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum floridanus): testing recovery goals and management options. Auk, 125, 167-177.
121. Possingham, H. P. & Davies, I. (1995) ALEX: a model for the viability analysis of spatially structured populations. Biological Conservation, 73, 143-150.
122. R Development Core Team (2007) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria; http://www.Rproject. org.
123. Reed, J.M., Fefferman, N. & Averill-Murray, R.C. (2009) Vital rate sensitivity analysis as a tool for assessing management actions for the desert tortoise. Biological Conservation, 142, 2710-2717.
124. Reed, J.M., Mills, L.S., Dunning, J.B. et al. (2002) Emerging issues in population viability analysis. Conservation Biology, 16, 7-19.
125. Reynolds, M.H., Brinck, K.W.&Laniawe, L. (2011) Population estimates and monitoring guidelines for endangered Laysan teal, Anas Laysanensis, at Midway Atoll: pilot study results 2008-2010, Hawaii Cooperative Studies Unit Technical Report HCSU-021. University of Hawaii, Hilo, HawaiI, USA.
126. Reynolds, M.H., Seavy, N.E., Vekasy, M.S. et al. (2008) Translocation and early postrelease demography of endangered Laysan teal. Animal Conservation, 11, 160-168.
127. Robert, A., Sarrazin, F., Couvet, D. et al. (2004) Releasing adults versus young in reintroductions: interactions between demography and genetics. Conservation Biology, 18, 1078-1087.
128. Roth, J.D., Murray, D.L. & Steury, T.D. (2008) Spatial dynamics of sympatric canids: modeling the impact of coyotes on red wolf recovery. Ecological Modelling, 214, 391-403.
129. Rout, T.M., Hauser, C.E. & Possingham, H.P. (2007) Minimise long-term loss or maximise short-term gain? Optimal translocation strategies for threatened species. Ecological Modelling, 201, 67-74.
130. Rout, T.M., Hauser, C.E. & Possingham, H.P. (2009) Optimal adaptive management for the translocation of a threatened species. Ecological Applications, 19, 515-526.
131. Saether, B.E., Engen, S., Filli, F. et al. (2002) Stochastic population dynamics of an introduced Swiss population of the ibex. Ecology, 83, 3457-3465.
132. Saether, B.E., Lillegard, M., Grotan, V. et al. (2007) Predicting fluctuations of reintroduced ibex populations: the importance of density dependence, environmental stochasticity and uncertain population estimates. Journal of Animal Ecology, 76, 326-336.
133. Sainsbury, A.W., Armstrong, D.P. & Ewen, J.G. (2011) Methods of disease risk analysis for reintroduction programmes. In Reintroduction Biology: integrating science and management, eds J.G. Ewen, D.P. Armstrong, K.A. Parker & P.J. Seddon, Chapter 10. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK.
134. Saltz, D., Rubenstein, D.I. & White, G.C. (2006) The impact of increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change on the dynamics of asiatic wild ass. Conservation Biology, 20, 1402-1409.
135. SAS Institute (2005) SAS/STAT User's Guide. Release 8.02. SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina, USA.
136. Schadt, S., Revilla, E., Wiegand, T. et al. (2002) Assessing the suitability of central European landscapes for the reintroduction of Eurasian lynx. Journal of Applied Ecology, 39, 189-203.
137. Schaub, M., Pradel, R. & Lebreton, J.D. (2004) Is the reintroduced white stork (Ciconia ciconia) population in Switzerland self-sustainable? Biological Conservation, 119, 105-114.
138. Schaub, M., Zink, R., Beissmann, H. et al. (2009)Whento end releases in reintroduction programmes: demographic rates and population viability analysis of bearded vultures in the Alps. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46 (1), 92-100.
139. Seddon, P.J., Armstrong, D.P. & Maloney, R.F. (2007) Developing the science of reintroduction biology. Conservation Biology, 21, 303-312.
140. Slotta-Bachmayr, L., Boegel, R., Kaczensky, P. et al. (2004) Use of population viability analysis to identify management priorities and success in reintroducing Przewalski's horses to southwestern Mongolia. Journal of Wildlife Management, 68, 790-798.
141. Smart, J., Amar, A., Sim, I.M.W. et al. (2010) Illegal killing slows population recovery of a re-introduced raptor of high conservation concern - the red kite Milvusmilvus. Biological Conservation, 143, 1278-1286.
142. Somers, M.J. (1997) The sustainability of harvesting a warthog population: assessment of management options using simulation modelling. South African Journal of Wildlife Research, 27, 37-43.
143. South, A., Rushton, S.&Macdonald, D. (2000) Simulating the proposed reintroduction of the European beaver (Castor fiber) to Scotland. Biological Conservation, 93, 103-116.
144. South, A.B., Rushton, S.P., Macdonald, D.W. et al. (2001) Reintroduction of the European beaver (Castor fiber) to Norfolk, UK: a preliminary modelling analysis. Journal of Zoology, 254, 473-479.
145. Southgate, R. & Possingham, H. (1995) Modelling the reintroduction of the greater bilgy Macrotis lagotis using the metapopulation model Analysis of the Likelihood of EXtinction (ALEX). Biological Conservation, 73, 151-160.
146. Spiegelhalter, D.J., Best, N.G., Carlin, B.P. et al. (2002) Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistics Society B, 64, 583-640.
147. Spiegelhalter, D., Thomas, A., Best, N. et al. (2003) WinBUGS User Manual, Version 1.4.3; http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs.
148. Steury, T.D. & Murray, D.L. (2004) Modeling the reintroduction of lynx to the southern portion of its range. Biological Conservation, 117, 127-141.
149. Strauss, W.M. (2002) Towards the effective management of the Arabian oryx Oryx leucoryx in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Zeitschrift für Jagdwissenschaft, 48, 7-16.
150. Swart, J. & Lawes, M.J. (1996) The effect of habitat patch connectivity on samango monkey (Cercopithecus mitis) metapopulation persistence. Ecological Modelling, 93, 57-74.
151. Tavecchia, G., Viedma, C., Martinez-Abrain, A. et al. (2009) Maximizing re-introduction success: assessing the immediate cost of release in a threatened waterfowl. Biological Conservation, 142, 3005-3012.
152. Taylor, M.K., Obbard, M., Pond, B. et al. (2006) A Guide to Using RISKMAN: stochastic and deterministic population modeling RISK MANagement decision tool for harvested and unharvested populations, Version 1.9.003. The Queen's Printer for Ontario, Ontario, Canada.
153. Tenhumberg, B., Tyre, A.J., Shea, K. et al. (2004) Linking wild and captive populations to maximize species persistence: optimal translocation strategies. Conservation Biology, 18, 1304-1314.
154. Tocher, M.D., Fletcher, D. & Bishop, P.J. (2006) Amodelling approach to determine a translocation scenario for the endangered New Zealand frog Leiopelma hamiltoni. Herpetological Journal, 16, 97-106.
155. Todd, C.R., Jenkins, S. & Bearlin, A.R. (2002) Lessons about extinction and translocation: models for eastern barred bandicoots (Perameles gunnii) at Woodlands Historic Park, Victoria, Australia. Biological Conservation, 106, 211-223.
156. Todd, C.R., Nicol, S.J. & Koehn, J.D. (2004) Density-dependence uncertainty in population models for the conservation management of trout cod, Maccullochella macquariensis. Ecological Modelling, 171, 359-380.
157. Towns, D.R. & Ferreira, S.M. (2001) Conservation of New Zealand lizards (Lacertilia: Scincidae) by translocation of small populations. Biological Conservation, 98, 211-222.
158. Towns, D.R., Parrish, G.R. & Westbrooke, I. (2003) Inferring vulnerability to introduced predators without experimental demonstration: case study of Suter's skink in New Zealand. Conservation Biology, 17, 1361-1371.
159. Vandel, J.M., Stahl, P., Herrenschmidt, V. et al. (2006) Reintroduction of the lynx into the Vosges mountain massif: from animal survival and movements to population development. Biological Conservation, 131, 370-385.
160. van Heezik, Y., Seddon, P.J. & Maloney, R.F. (1999) Helping reintroduced houbara bustards avoid predation: effective anti-predator training and the predictive value of pre-release behaviour. Animal Conservation, 2, 155-163.
161. Vincenzi, S., Crivelli, A.J., Jesensek, D. et al. (2008) Potential factors controlling the population viability of newly introduced endangered marble trout populations. Biological Conservation, 141, 198-210.
162. Wakamiya, S.M. & Roy, C.L. (2009) Use of monitoring data and population viability analysis to inform reintroduction decisions: peregrine falcons in the Midwestern United States. Biological Conservation, 142, 1767-1776.
163. Watson, L.H. & Chadwick, P. (2007) Management of Cape Mountain zebra in the Kammanassie Nature Reserve, South Africa. South African Journal of Wildlife Research, 37, 31-39.
164. Wear, B.J., Eastridge, R. & Clark, J.D. (2005) Factors affecting settling, survival, and viability of black bears reintroduced to Felsenthal National Wildlife Refuge, Arkansas. Wildlife Society Bulletin, 33, 1363-1374.
165. White, G.C. (2000a) Modelling population dynamics. In Ecology and Management of Large Mammals in North America, eds S. Demarais & P.R. Krausman, pp. 85-107. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, USA.
166. White, G.C. (2000b) Population viability analysis: data requirements and essential analyses. In Research Techniques in Animal Ecology: controversies and consequences, eds L. Boitani & T.K. Fuller, pp. 287-331. Columbia University Press, New York, USA.
167. White, G.C. & Burnham, K.P. (1999) Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals. Bird Study, 46 (Suppl.), 120-138.
168. Wiegand, T., Knauer, F., Kaczensky, P. et al. (2004a) Expansion of brown bears (Ursus arctos) into the eastern Alps: a spatially explicit population model. Biodiversity and Conservation, 13, 79-114.
169. Wiegand, T., Revilla, E. & Knauer, F. (2004b) Dealing with uncertainty in spatially explicit population models. Biodiversity and Conservation, 13, 53-78.
170. Williams, B.K., Nichols, J.K. & Conroy, M.J. (2002) Analysis and Management of Animal Populations. Academic Press, New York, USA.
171. Wolfram Research (1996) Mathematica, Version 3.0. Wolfram Research, Champaign, Illinois, USA.
172. Wood, D.J.A., Koprowski, J.L. & Lurz, P.W.W. (2007) Tree squirrel introduction: a theoretical approach with population viability analysis. Journal of Mammalogy, 88, 1271-1279.