Hierarchical Bayesian Models to Assess Between- and Within-Batch Variability of Pathogen Contamination in Food

Risk Analysis

Volumn 32, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 395-415

  Commeau, Natalie ^a,b,c   Cornu, Marie ^b   Albert, Isabelle ^d   Denis, Jean Baptiste ^e   Parent, Eric ^a  

^a AgroParisTech   (France)

^b AGROPARISTECH   (France)

^c FRENCH AGENCY FOR FOOD   (France)

^d Unité Metarisk INRA   (France)

^e UR341 National Agronomical Research Institute (INRA)   (France)

Author keywords

Bayesian modeling; Detection and enumeration; Hierarchical models; Microbiological contamination; Predictive approach

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN MODELING; COLD-SMOKED SALMON; HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN MODELS; HIERARCHICAL MODEL; LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES; MODEL COMPARISON; PREDICTIVE APPROACH; RISK MANAGER; SAMPLING PLANS;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; HIERARCHICAL SYSTEMS; PATHOGENS;

CONTAMINATION;

BACTERIUM; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; FOOD POISONING; FOOD SAFETY; HIERARCHICAL SYSTEM; MICROBIAL ACTIVITY; NUMERICAL MODEL; PATHOGEN; RISK ASSESSMENT;

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; FOOD CONTROL; FOOD HANDLING; HUMAN; ISOLATION AND PURIFICATION; LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES; MEAT; MICROBIOLOGY; PATHOGENICITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SALMON; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS; SWINE;

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; ANIMALS; BAYES THEOREM; FOOD HANDLING; FOOD MICROBIOLOGY; HUMANS; LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES; MEAT PRODUCTS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SALMON; SUS SCROFA;

LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES;

EID: 84858297941     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01699.x     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Pouillot R, Miconnet N, Afchain AL, Delignette-Muller ML, Beaufort A, Rosso L, Denis J-B, Cornu M. Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French cold smoked salmon: I. Quantitative exposure assessment. Risk Analysis, 2007; 27(3):683-700.
2. Pouillot R, Goullet V, Delignette-Muller ML, Mahé A, Cornu M. Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French cold smoked salmon: II. Risk characterization. Risk Analysis, 2009; 29(6):809-819.
3. Sanaa M, Coroller L, Cerf O. Risk assessment of listeriosis linked to the consumption of two soft cheeses made from raw milk: Camembert of Normandy and Brie of Meaux. Risk Analysis, 2004; 24(2):57-62.
4. Crépet A, Albert I, Dervin C, Carlin F. Estimation of microbial contamination of food from prevalence and concentration data: Application to Listeria monocytogenes in fresh vegetables. Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 2007; 73(1):250-258.
5. Commission Regulation (EC) No 2073/2005. On microbiological criteria for foodstuffs. Official Journal of the European Union, 2005; L338:1-26.
6. ILSI. Impact of microbial distribution on food safety. 2010.
7. Hoffman FO, Hammonds JS. Propagation of uncertainty in risk assessments: The need to distinguish between uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and uncertainty due to variability. Risk Analysis, 1994; 14(5):707-712.
8. Cullen AC, Frey HC. Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure Assessment. New York: Plenum Press, 1999.
9. Spor A, Dillman C, Wang S, de Vienne D, Sicard S, Parent E. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling for Saccharomyces cerevisiae population dynamics. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 2010; 142:25-35.
10. Verdonck FAM, Jaworska J, Thas O, Vanrolleghem PA. Determining environmental standards using bootstrapping, Bayesian and maximum likelihood techniques: A comparative study. Analytica Chimica Acta, 2001; 446(1-2):427-436.
11. Brand KP, Small MJ. Updating uncertainty in an integrated risk assessment: Conceptual framework and methods. Risk Analysis, 1995; 15(6):719-731.
12. Calder C, Lavine M, Muller P, Clark JS. Incorporating multiple sources of stochasticity into dynamic population models. Ecology, 2003; 84(6):1395-1402.
13. Tebaldi C, Smith RL, Nychka D, Mearns LO. Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles. Journal of Climate, 2005; 18(10):1524-1540.
14. Pouillot R, Albert I, Cornu M, Denis JB. Estimation of uncertainty and variability in bacterial growth using Bayesian inference. Application to Listeria monocytogenes. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 2003; 81(2):87-104.
15. Barker GC, Malakar PK, Peck MW. Germination and growth from spores: Variability and uncertainty in the assessment of food borne hazards. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 2005; 100:67-76.
16. Gelfand AE, Ghosh SK. Model choice: A minimum predictive loss approach. Biometrika, 1998; 85(1):1-11.
17. Spiegelhalter DJ, Best NG, Carlin BP, van der Linde A. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistic Society B, 2002; 64(4):583-639.
18. Kass RE, Raftery AE. Bayes factor. Journal of American Statistical Association, 1995; 430:773-795.
19. Raftery AE. Bayesian model selection in social research. Sociological Methodology, 1995; 25:111-163.
20. Dawid AP, Lauritzen SL. Compatible prior distributions. ISBA Proceedings, 2000.
21. Roverato A, Consonni G. Compatible prior distributions for directed acyclic graph models. Journal of the Royal Statistic Society B, 2004; 66(1):47-61.
22. Ryser ET, Marth EH. Listeria, Listeriosis and Food Safety. Food Science and Technology, Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2007.
23. AFSSA. Enquête individuelle et nationale sur les consommations alimentaires 2 (INCA 2). 2009.
24. ISO11290-1. Horizontal method for the detection and enumeration of Listeria monocytogenes-Part 1: Detection method. 1996.
25. ISO11290-2. Horizontal method for the detection and enumeration of Listeria monocytogenes-Part 2: Enumeration method. 1998.
26. van Schothorst M, Zwietering MH, Ross T, Buchanan RL, Cole MB. Relating microbiological criteria to food safety objectives and performance objectives. Food Control, 2009; 20:967-979.
27. Berger JO. Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, 2nd ed. New York: Springer Verlag, 1985.
28. Forster JJ. Bayesian inference for Poisson and multinomial log-linear models. Statistical Methodology, 2010; 7:210-224.
29. Kuhnert PM, Martin TG, Griffiths SP. A guide to eliciting and using expert knowledge in Bayesian ecological models. Ecology Letters, 2010; 13:900-914.
30. Moala F, O'Hagan A. Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 2010; 140:1635-1655.
31. Celeux G, Marin JM, Robert C. Sélection bayésienne de variables en régression linéaire. Journal de la Société Française de Statistique, 2006; 147(1):59-79.
32. R Development Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2009.
33. Gelman A. Comment: Bayesian checking of the second levels of hierarchical models. Statistical Science, 2007; 22(3):349-352.
34. Billoir E, Zuliani V, Commeau N, Cornu M, Denis JB. Probabilistic modeling of the fate of Listeria monocytogenes in diced bacon during the manufacturing process. Risk Analysis, 2011; 31(2):237-254.
35. Thomas A, O'Hara B, Ligges U, Sturtz S. Making BUGS open. R News, 2006; 6:12-17.
36. Brooks SP, Gelman A. Alternative methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 1998; 7:434-455.
37. Beaufort A, Rudelle S, Gnanou-Besse N, Toquin MT, Kerouanton A, Bergis H, Salvat G, Cornu M. Prevalence and growth of Listeria monocytogenes in naturally contaminated cold-smoked salmon. Letters in Applied Microbiology, 2007; 44(4):406-411.
38. Gnanou Besse N, Audinet N, Beaufort A, Colin P, Cornu M, Lombard B. A contribution to the improvement of Listeria monocytogenes enumeration in cold-smoked salmon. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 2004; 91:119-127.
39. Aziza F, Mettler E, Daudin JJ, Sanaa M. Stochastic, compartmental, and dynamic modeling of cross-contamination during mechanical smearing of cheeses. Risk Analysis, 2006; 26(3):731-745.
40. Clough HE, Clancy D, O'Neill PD, Robinson SE, French NP. Quantifying uncertainty associated with microbial count data: A Bayesian approach. Biometrics, 2005; 61:610-616.
41. Aarnisalo K, Vihavainen E, Rantala L, Maijala R, Suihko ML, Hielm S, Tuominen P, Ranta J, Raaska L. Use of results of microbiological analyses for risk-based control of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 2008; 121(3):275-284.
42. O'Hagan A, Buck CE, Daneshkhah A, Eiser R, Garthwaite PH, Jenkinson DJ, Oakley JE, Rakow T. Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2006.
43. Amzal B, Bois F, Parent E, Robert CP. Bayesian optimal design via interacting particle systems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2006; 101(474):773-785.