Climate change, variability and conservation impacts in Australia

Pacific Conservation Biology

Volumn 17, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 168-178

  Prowse, Thomas A A ^a   Brook, Barry W ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE   (Australia)

Author keywords

Carbon market; Conservation management; Drought; El Ni o Southern Oscillation; Reserve system; Review; Southern Annular Mode

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION; ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BIOME; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE CYCLE; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EMISSIONS TRADING; ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS; EROSION; EXPLOITATION; FLOODING; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HABITAT LOSS; HADLEY CELL; HOLOCENE; INCENTIVE; INVASIVE SPECIES; NATURE RESERVE; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD; REFORESTATION; SALINIZATION; STORM; VEGETATION DYNAMICS;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 83155177923     PISSN: 10382097     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1071/PC110168     Document Type: Article

References (100)

1. Akçakaya, H. R., Butchart, S., Mace, G. M., Stuart, S. N. and Hilton-Taylor, C., 2006. Use and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity. Global Change Biology 12:2037-2043. (Pubitemid 44560717)
2. Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H., Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J. H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A. and Cobb, N., 2010. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259:660-684.
3. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). http://www.amap. no, accessed August 4 2011.
4. Bottrill, M. C., Joseph, L. N., Carwardine, J., Bode, M., Cook, C. N., Game, E. T., Grantham, H., Kark, S., Linke, S., McDonald-Madden, E., Pressey, R. L., Walker, S., Wilson, K. A. and Possingham, H. P., 2008. Is conservation triage just smart decision making? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23:649-654.
5. Brook, B. W., 2008. Synergies between climate change, extinctions and invasive vertebrates. Wildlife Research 35:249-252. (Pubitemid 351704900)
6. Cai, W., Cowan, T. and Sullivan, A., in press. Are anthropogenic aerosols reponsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications. Journal of Climate.
7. Catterall, C. P., Kanowski, J., Wardell-Johnson, G., Proctor, H. and Reis, T., 2004. Quantifying the biodiversity values of reforestation: design issues and outcomes in Australian forest landscapes. Pp. 465-501 in Conservation of Australia's Forest Fauna, Royal Zoological Society of New South Wales, Mosman.
8. Chen, M., Xie, P. and Janowiak, J. E., 2002. Global land precipitation: a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 3:249-266.
9. Chiew, F. H. S., Piechota, T. C., Dracup, J. A. and McMahon, T. A., 1998. El Niño Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall, streamflow and drought: links and potential for forecasting. Journal of Hydrology 204:138-149. (Pubitemid 28159056)
10. Church, J. A., White, N. J., Hunter, J. R. and Lambeck, K., 2008. A post-IPCC AR4 update on sea level rise. Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC.
11. Collins, M., An, S.-I., Cai, W., Ganachaud, A., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Jochum, M., Lengaigne, M., Power, S., Timmermann, A., Vecchi, G. and Wittenberg, A., 2010. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nature Geoscience 3:391-397.
12. Commonwealth of Australia, 2005. Directions for the national reserve system - a partnership approach. National Reserve System Task Force of the NRM Ministerial Council's Land, Water and Biodiversity Committee, Canberra.
13. Commonwealth of Australia, 2011. www.cleanenergyfuture.gov. au, accessed August 11 2011.
14. CSIRO, 2007. Climate Change in Australia: Technical Report 2007. CSIRO, Australia.
15. Donders, T. H., Haberle, S. G., Hope, G., Wagner, F. and Visscher, H., 2007. Pollen evidence for the transition of the eastern Australian climate system from the postglacial to the present-day ENSO mode. Quaternary Science Reviews 26:1621-1637. (Pubitemid 46899315)
16. Donders, T. H., Wagner-Cremer, F. and Visscher, H., 2008. Integration of proxy data and model scenarios for the mid-Holocene onset of modern ENSO variability. Quaternary Science Reviews 27:571-579. (Pubitemid 351381565)
17. Driscoll, D. A., Lindenmayer, D. B., Bennett, A. F., Bode, M., Bradstock, R. A., Cary, G. J., Clarke, M. F., Dexter, N., Fensham, R., Friend, G., Gill, M., James, S., Kay, G., Keith, D. A., MacGregor, C., Russell-Smith, J., Salt, D., Watson, J. E. M., Williams, R. J. and York, A., 2010. Fire management for biodiversity conservation: Key research questions and our capacity to answer them. Biological Conservation 143:1928-1939.
18. Evans, A. D., Bennett, J. M. and Ewenz, C. M., 2009. South Australian rainfall variability and climate extremes. Climate Dynamics 33:477-493.
19. Fuller, R. A., McDonald-Madden, E., Wilson, K. A., Carwardine, J., Grantham, H. S., Watson, J. E. M., Klein, C. J., Green, D. C. and Possingham, H. P., 2010. Replacing underperforming protected areas achieves better conservation outcomes. Nature 466:365-367.
20. Garnaut, R., 2011. Update paper six: carbon pricing and reducing Australia's emissions. http://www.garnautreview.org.au/index.html.
21. Gergis, J. L. and Fowler, A. M., 2009. A history of ENSO events since AD 1525: implications for future climate change. Climatic Change 92:343-387.
22. Gilman, E. L., Ellison, J., Duke, N. C. and Field, C., 2008. Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review. Aquatic Botany 89:237-250.
23. Greaver, T. L. and Sternberg, L. S. L., 2010. Decreased precipitation exacerbates the effects of sea level on coastal dune ecosystems in open ocean islands. Global Change Biology 16:1860-1869.
24. Hadley, D., 2009. Land use and the coastal zone. Land Use Policy 26: S198-S203.
25. Hagerman, S., Dowlatabadi, H., Satterfield, T. and McDaniels, T., 2010. Expert views on biodiversity conservation in an era of climate change. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 20:192-207.
26. Harle, K., Etheridge, D., Barbetti, M., Jones, R., Brooke, B., Whetton, P., van Ommen, T., Goodwin, I., Fink, D. and Haberle, S., 2007. Building a future on knowledge from the past: what palaeo-science can reveal about climate change and its potential impacts in Australia. Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources, Canberra, Australia.
27. Harper, R. J., Beck, A. C., Ritson, P., Hill, M. J., Mitchell, C. D., Barrett, D. J., Smettem, K. R. J. and Mann, S. S., 2007. The potential of greenhouse sinks to underwrite improved land management. Ecological Engineering 29:329-341. (Pubitemid 46371378)
28. Harvey, N., 2006. Holocene coastal evolution: Barriers, beach ridges, and tidal flats of South Australia. Journal of Coastal Research 22:90-99. (Pubitemid 43130904)
29. Harvey, N. and Woodroffe, C. D., 2008. Australian approaches to coastal vulnerability assessment. Sustainability Science 3:67-87.
30. Hellmann, J. J., Byers, J. E., Bierwagen, B. G. and Dukes, J. S., 2008. Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species. Conservation Biology 22:534-543. (Pubitemid 351813451)
31. Hendon, H. H., Thompson, D. W. J. and Wheeler, M. C., 2007. Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. Journal of Climate 20:2452-2467. (Pubitemid 46979756)
32. Hennessy, K. J., Whetton, P. H., Walsh, K., Smith, I. N., Bathols, J. M., Hutchinson, M. and Sharples, J., 2008. Climate change effects on snow conditions in mainland Australia and adaptation at ski resorts through snowmaking. Climate Research 35:255-270. (Pubitemid 351721165)
33. Hobbs, T. J., 2009. Regional industry potential for woody biomass crops in lower rainfall southern Australia. RIRDC Publication No 09/045, RIRDC.
34. Hobbs, T. J., Bennell, M. and Bartle, J., 2009. Developing species for woody biomass crops in lower rainfall southern Australia - FloraSearch 3a. RIRDC Publication No 09/043, RIRDC.
35. Hobbs, T. J., Neumann, C. R. and Tucker, M., 2010. Carbon sequestration from revegetation: southern Murray-Darling Basin Region, DWBLC Report 2010/02, Government of South Australia.
36. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Hughes, L., McIntyre, S., Lindenmayer, D. B., Parmesan, C., Possingham, H. P. and Thomas, C. D., 2008. Assisted colonization and rapid climate change. Science 321:345-346. (Pubitemid 352029958)
37. Hu, Y. Y., Zhou, C. and Liu, J. P., 2011. Observational evidence for poleward expansion of the Hadley Circulation. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 28:33-44.
38. Hughes, L., 2003. Climate change and Australia: trends, projections and impacts. Austral Ecology 28:423-443. (Pubitemid 37073880)
39. IOCI, 2002. Climate variability and change in south west Western Australia. Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Panel, Perth, Western Australia.
40. IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
41. Johanson, C. M. and Fu, Q., 2009. Hadley cell widening: model simulations versus observations. Journal of Climate 22:2713-2725.
42. Jones, R. N., Bowler, J. M. and MacMahon, T. A., 1998. A high resolution Holocene record of P/E ratio from closed lakes in Western Victoria. Palaeoclimates 3:51-82.
43. Jones, R. N. and Pittock, A. B., 2002. Climate change and water resources in an arid continent: managing uncertainty and risk in Australia. Pp. 465-501 in Climatic Change: Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water management, Advances in Global Change Research ed by M. Beniston. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht and Boston.
44. Kanowski, J., Catterall, C. P., and Wardell-Johnson, G. W., 2005. Consequences of broadscale timber plantations for biodiversity in cleared rainforest landscapes of eastern Australia. Forest Ecology and Management 208:359-372. (Pubitemid 40328570)
45. Karoly, D. J. and Braganza, K., 2005. A new approach to detection of anthropogenic temperature changes in the Australian region. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89:57-67. (Pubitemid 40959183)
46. 2 on global-scale leaf area index and evapotranspiration: conflicting stomatal conductance and LAI responses. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 107:4808.
47. Kiem, A. S. and Verdon-Kidd, D. C., 2010. Towards understanding hydroclimatic change in Victoria, Australia - preliminary insights into the 'Big Dry'. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14:433-445.
48. Kingsford, R. T., Watson, J. E. M., Lundquist, C. J., Venter, O., Hughes, L., Johnston, E. L., Atherton, J., Gawel, M., Keith, D. A., Mackey, B. G., Morley, C., Possingham, H. P., Raynor, B., Recher, H. F. & Wilson, K. A., 2009. Major conservation policy issues for biodiversity in Oceania. Conservation Biology 23:834-840.
49. 2 responses: an issue of definition, time and resource supply. New Phytologist 172:393-411. (Pubitemid 44571070)
50. Larsen, S. H. and Nicholls, N., 2009. Southern Australian rainfall and the subtropical ridge: variations, interrelationships, and trends. Geophysical Research Letters 36: L08708.
51. Lawler, J. J., 2009. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Resource Management and Conservation Planning. Pp. 79-98 in Year in Ecology and Conservation Biology 2009 ed by R. S. Ostfeld and W. H. Schlesinger. Blackwell Publishing, Oxford.
52. Liu, S. L., Liu, R. G. and Liu, Y., 2010. Spatial and temporal variation of global LAI during 1981-2006. Journal of Geographical Sciences 20:323-332.
53. Lockwood, J. L., Hoopes, M. F., and Marchetti, M. P. (2007) Invasion Ecology. Blackwell, Oxford.
54. Loss, S. R., Terwilliger, L. A. and Peterson, A. C., 2011. Assisted colonization: Integrating conservation strategies in the face of climate change. Biological Conservation 144:92-100.
55. Mackey, B. G., Watson, J. E. M., Hope, G. and Gilmore, S., 2008. Climate change, biodiversity conservation, and the role of protected areas: an Australian perspective. Biodiversity 9:11-18.
56. Marris, E., 2007. What to let go. Nature 450:152-155.
57. McVicar, T. R., Van Niel, T. G., Li, L. T., Roderick, M. L., Rayner, D. P., Ricciardulli, L. and Donohue, R. J., 2008. Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia, 1975-2006: capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output. Geophysical Research Letters 35: L20403.
58. MEA, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Island Press, Washington, DC.
59. Mueller, J. M. and Hellmann, J. J., 2008. An assessment of invasion risk from assisted migration. Conservation Biology 22:562-567. (Pubitemid 351813452)
60. Murphy, B. F. and Timbal, B., 2008. A review of recent climate variability and climate change in southeastern Australia. International Journal of Climatology 28:859-879. (Pubitemid 351965669)
61. Neelin, J. D., Battisti, D. S., Hirst, A. C., Jin, F. F., Wakata, Y., Yamagata, T. and Zebiak, S. E., 1998. ENSO theory. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 103:14261-14290. (Pubitemid 28497207)
62. Nicholls, N., 2003. Continued anomalous warming in Australia. Geophysical Research Letters 30: article 23.
63. Nicholls, N., 2004. The changing nature of Australian droughts. Climatic Change 63:323-336. (Pubitemid 38448475)
64. Nicholls, N., 2005. Climate variability, climate change and the Australian snow season. Australian Meteorological Magazine 54:177-185. (Pubitemid 41800591)
65. Nicholls, N., 2010. Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumn-winter rainfall decline, 1958-2007. Climate Dynamics 34:835-845.
66. Pollack, H. N., Huang, S. P. and Smerdon, J. E., 2006. Five centuries of climate change in Australia: the view from underground. Journal of Quaternary Science 21:701-706. (Pubitemid 44637358)
67. Pook, M., Lisson, S., Risbey, J., Ummenhofer, C. C., McIntosh, P. and Rebbeck, M., 2009. The autumn break for cropping in southeast Australia: trends, synoptic influences and impacts on wheat yield. International Journal of Climatology 29:2012-2026.
68. Potter, N. J., Chiew, F. H. S. and Frost, A. J., 2010. An assessment of the severity of recent reductions in rainfall and runoff in the Murray-Darling Basin. Journal of Hydrology 381:52-64.
69. Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. and Mehta, V., 1999. Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Climate Dynamics 15:319-324. (Pubitemid 29414087)
70. Previdi, M. and Liepert, B. G., 2007. Annular modes and Hadley cell expansion under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L22701.
71. Quigley, M. C., Horton, T., Hellstrom, J. C., Cupper, M. L. and Sandiford, M., 2010. Holocene climate change in arid Australia from speleothem and alluvial records. Holocene 20:1093-1104.
72. Ragab, R. and Prudhomme, C., 2002. Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions: prospective and challenges for the 21st century. Biosystems Engineering 81:3-34. (Pubitemid 34635109)
73. Risbey, J. S., Pook, M. J., McIntosh, P. C., Wheeler, M. C. and Hendon, H. H., 2009. On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Monthly Weather Review 137:3233-3253.
74. Roderick, M. L. and Farquhar, G. D., 2004. Changes in Australian pan evaporation from 1970 to 2002. International Journal of Climatology 24:1077-1090. (Pubitemid 38991024)
75. Roderick, M. L., Rotstayn, L. D., Farquhar, G. D. and Hobbins, M. T., 2007. On the attribution of changing pan evaporation. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L17403.
76. Roderick, M. L., Hobbins, M. T. and Farquhar, G. D., 2009a. Pan evaporation trends and the terrestrial water balance. I. Principles and observations. Geography Compass 3:746-760.
77. Roderick, M. L., Hobbins, M. T. and Farquhar, G. D., 2009b. Pan evaporation trends and the terrestrial water balance. II. Energy balance and interpretation Geography Compass 3:761-780.
78. Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N., and Yamagata, T. 1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360-363. (Pubitemid 29454955)
79. Sattler, P. S., and Taylor, M., 2008. Building nature's safety net 2008: progress for the directions for the national reserve system. World Wildlife Fund-Australia, Sydney.
80. Seidel, D. J., Fu, Q., Randel, W. J. and Reichler, T. J., 2008. Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nature Geoscience 1:21-24.
81. Sheridan, S. C. and Lee, C. C., 2010. Synoptic climatology and the general circulation model. Progress in Physical Geography 34:101-109.
82. Shi, G., Cai, W., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J., Rotstayn, L. and Dix, M., 2008. Variability and trend of north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling. Journal of Climate 21:2938-2959.
83. Soares, M. L. G., 2009. A conceptual model for the responses of mangrove forests to sea level rise. Journal of Coastal Research SI 56:267-271.
84. Sodhi, N. S., Lee, T. M., Koh, L. P. and Brook, B. W., 2009. A meta-analysis of the impact of anthropogenic forest disturbance on Southeast Asia's biotas. Biotropica 41:103-109.
85. Steffen, W., Burbridge, A. A., Hughes, L., Kitching, R., Lindenmayer, D., Musgrave, W., Stafford-Smith, M. and Werner, P. A., 2009. Australia's biodiversity and climate change. Technical synthesis of a report to the Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council commissioned by the Australian Government.
86. Stone, R., 2010. Home, home outside the range? Science 329:1592-594.
87. Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A. and Allen, M. R., 2004. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432:610-614.
88. Suppiah, R., Preston, B., Whetton, P. H., McInnes, K. L., Jones, R. N., Macadam, I., Bathols, J. and Kirono, D., 2006. Climate change under enhanced greenhouse conditions in South Australia. CSIRO Climate Impacts and Risk Group, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, a consultancy report for the Government of South Australia.
89. Taylor, M. F. J., Sattler, P. S., Evans, M., Fuller, R. A., Watson, J. E. M. and Possingham, H. P., 2011. What works for threatened species recovery? An empirical evaluation for Australia. Biodiversity and Conservation 20:767-777.
90. Thompson, D. W. J. and Wallace, J. M., 2000. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Monthto-month variability. Journal of Climate 13:1000-1016. (Pubitemid 30448557)
91. Timbal, B., Arblaster, J. M. and Power, S., 2006. Attribution of the late-twentieth-century rainfall decline in southwest Australia. Journal of Climate 19:2046-2062.
92. Trenberth, K. E., Jones, P. D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu, R., Easterling, D., Klein Tank, A., Parker, D., Rahimzadeh, F., Renwick, J. A., Rusticucci, M., Soden, B. and Zhai, P., 2007. Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. Pp. 237-336 in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, N Y, USA.
93. Ummenhofer, C. C., England, M. H., McIntosh, P. C., Meyers, G. A., Pook, M. J., Risbey, J. S., Gupta, A. S. and Taschetto, A. S., 2009. What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts? Geophysical Research Letters 36: L04706.
94. Verdon-Kidd, D. C. and Kiem, A. S., 2009a. Nature and causes of protracted droughts in southeast Australia: comparison between the Federation, WWII, and Big Dry droughts. Geophysical Research Letters 36: L22707
95. Verdon-Kidd, D. C. and Kiem, A. S., 2009b. On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 13:467-479.
96. Vivés, B. and Jones, R., 2005. Detection of abrupt changes in Australian decadal rainfall (1890-1989). CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper no. 73. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia.
97. 2 responses of grassland species. Oecologia 125:380-388.
98. Walsh, M. J., 1999. Maximizing financial support for biodiversity in the emerging Kyoto protocol markets. Science of the Total Environment 240:145-156. (Pubitemid 29469667)
99. Watson, J. E. M., Fuller, R. A., Watson, A. W. T., Mackey, B. G., Wilson, K. A., Grantham, H. S., Turner, M., Klein, C. J., Carwardine, J., Joseph, L. N. and Possingham, H. P., 2009. Wilderness and future conservation priorities in Australia. Diversity and Distributions 15:1028-1036.
100. Watson, J. E. M., Evans, M. C., Carwardine, J., Fuller, R. A., Joseph, L. N., Segan, D. B., Taylor, M. F. J., Fensham, R. J. and Possingham, H. P., 2011. The Capacity of Australia's Protected-Area System to Represent Threatened Species. Conservation Biology 25:324-332.