메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 102, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 243-262

Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review

Author keywords

Bayesian analysis; Change point; Extreme events; Tropical cyclone path clustering; Tropical cyclone prediction

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CHANGE-POINTS; EXTREME EVENTS; TROPICAL CYCLONE; TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTIONS;

EID: 80054787920     PISSN: 01698095     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.07.001     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (22)

References (60)
  • 1
    • 84916537550 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian analysis of binary and polychotomous response data
    • Albert J., Chib S. Bayesian analysis of binary and polychotomous response data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1993, 88:669-679.
    • (1993) J. Am. Stat. Assoc. , vol.88 , pp. 669-679
    • Albert, J.1    Chib, S.2
  • 3
    • 45249118445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian design and analysis for super-ensemble based climate forecasting
    • Berliner L.M., Kim Y. Bayesian design and analysis for super-ensemble based climate forecasting. J. Climate 2008, 21:1891-1910.
    • (2008) J. Climate , vol.21 , pp. 1891-1910
    • Berliner, L.M.1    Kim, Y.2
  • 4
    • 44349173744 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the changes in number and intensity of North Atlantic tropical cyclones
    • Briggs W.M. On the changes in number and intensity of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. J. Climate 2008, 21:1387-1402.
    • (2008) J. Climate , vol.21 , pp. 1387-1402
    • Briggs, W.M.1
  • 6
    • 79956325243 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting tropical cyclone formation in the Fiji region: A probit regression approach using Bayesian fitting
    • Chand S.S., Walsh K.J.E. Forecasting tropical cyclone formation in the Fiji region: A probit regression approach using Bayesian fitting. Wea. Forecast 2011, 26(2):150-165.
    • (2011) Wea. Forecast , vol.26 , Issue.2 , pp. 150-165
    • Chand, S.S.1    Walsh, K.J.E.2
  • 7
    • 77955508187 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian regression approach to seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones affecting the Fiji region
    • Chand S.S., Walsh K.J.E., Chan J.C.L. A Bayesian regression approach to seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones affecting the Fiji region. J. Climate 2010, 23:3425-3445.
    • (2010) J. Climate , vol.23 , pp. 3425-3445
    • Chand, S.S.1    Walsh, K.J.E.2    Chan, J.C.L.3
  • 8
    • 0037106797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Large-scale circulation features associated with decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific
    • Chu P.-S. Large-scale circulation features associated with decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate 2002, 15:2678-2689.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 2678-2689
    • Chu, P.-S.1
  • 9
    • 12344325020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian change-point analysis of tropical cyclone activity: the central North Pacific Case
    • Chu P.-S., Zhao X. Bayesian change-point analysis of tropical cyclone activity: the central North Pacific Case. J. Climate 2004, 17:4893-4901.
    • (2004) J. Climate , vol.17 , pp. 4893-4901
    • Chu, P.-S.1    Zhao, X.2
  • 10
    • 34548126118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific
    • Chu P.-S., Zhao X. A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate 2007, 20:4002-4013.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.20 , pp. 4002-4013
    • Chu, P.-S.1    Zhao, X.2
  • 11
    • 36849065743 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method
    • Chu P.-S., Zhao X., Lee C.-T., Lu M.-M. Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. 2007, 18:805-825.
    • (2007) Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. , vol.18 , pp. 805-825
    • Chu, P.-S.1    Zhao, X.2    Lee, C.-T.3    Lu, M.-M.4
  • 12
    • 84995294325 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional typhoon activity as revealed by track patterns and climate change
    • Springer, (Chapter 8), J. Elsner (Ed.)
    • Chu P.-S., Zhao X., Kim J.-H. Regional typhoon activity as revealed by track patterns and climate change. Hurricanes and Climate Change 2010, vol. 2:137-148. Springer, (Chapter 8). J. Elsner (Ed.).
    • (2010) Hurricanes and Climate Change , vol.2 , pp. 137-148
    • Chu, P.-S.1    Zhao, X.2    Kim, J.-H.3
  • 13
    • 79251577391 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian forecasting of seasonal typhoon activity: a track-pattern-oriented categorization approach
    • Chu P.-S., Zhao X., Ho C.-H., Kim H.-S., Lu M.-M., Kim J.-H. Bayesian forecasting of seasonal typhoon activity: a track-pattern-oriented categorization approach. J. Climate 2010, 23:6654-6668.
    • (2010) J. Climate , vol.23 , pp. 6654-6668
    • Chu, P.-S.1    Zhao, X.2    Ho, C.-H.3    Kim, H.-S.4    Lu, M.-M.5    Kim, J.-H.6
  • 14
    • 0034477713 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Local environmental conditions related to seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the northeastern Pacific basin
    • Collins J.M., Mason I.M. Local environmental conditions related to seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the northeastern Pacific basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2000, 27:3881-3884.
    • (2000) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.27 , pp. 3881-3884
    • Collins, J.M.1    Mason, I.M.2
  • 15
    • 0004214647 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
    • Congdon P. Bayesian Statistical Modeling 2007, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, (596 pp.). 2nd ed.
    • (2007) Bayesian Statistical Modeling , pp. 596
    • Congdon, P.1
  • 16
    • 4444259428 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pacific interdecadal climate variability: linkages between the tropics and the North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900
    • Deser C.A., Phillips S., Hurrell J.W. Pacific interdecadal climate variability: linkages between the tropics and the North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate 2004, 17:3109-3124.
    • (2004) J. Climate , vol.17 , pp. 3109-3124
    • Deser, C.A.1    Phillips, S.2    Hurrell, J.W.3
  • 17
    • 1642488981 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian analysis of climate change impacts in phenology
    • Dose V., Menzel A. Bayesian analysis of climate change impacts in phenology. Glob. Change Bio. 2004, 10:259-272.
    • (2004) Glob. Change Bio. , vol.10 , pp. 259-272
    • Dose, V.1    Menzel, A.2
  • 18
    • 0035676576 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate
    • Elsner J.B., Bossak B.H. Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate. J. Climate 2001, 14:4341-4350.
    • (2001) J. Climate , vol.14 , pp. 4341-4350
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Bossak, B.H.2
  • 19
    • 4043064161 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling
    • Elsner J.B., Jagger T.H. A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling. J. Climate 2004, 17:2813-2827.
    • (2004) J. Climate , vol.17 , pp. 2813-2827
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Jagger, T.H.2
  • 20
    • 33745833419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts
    • Elsner J.B., Jagger T.H. Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts. J. Climate 2006, 19:2813-2827.
    • (2006) J. Climate , vol.19 , pp. 2813-2827
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Jagger, T.H.2
  • 21
    • 3843110240 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detecting shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach
    • Elsner J.B., Niu X., Jagger T.H. Detecting shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. J. Climate 2004, 17:2652-2666.
    • (2004) J. Climate , vol.17 , pp. 2652-2666
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Niu, X.2    Jagger, T.H.3
  • 22
    • 0002818194 scopus 로고
    • Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology: A Bayesian Approach
    • Amer. Meteor. Soc
    • Epstein E.S. Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology: A Bayesian Approach. Meteor. Monogr. 1985, No. 42. Amer. Meteor. Soc, (199 pp.).
    • (1985) Meteor. Monogr. , vol.NO. 42 , pp. 199
    • Epstein, E.S.1
  • 24
    • 0035591051 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the relationship between Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for model uncertainty
    • Godsill S.J. On the relationship between Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for model uncertainty. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 2001, 10:1-19.
    • (2001) J. Comput. Graph. Stat. , vol.10 , pp. 1-19
    • Godsill, S.J.1
  • 25
    • 77956889087 scopus 로고
    • Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo computation and Bayesian model determination
    • Green P. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo computation and Bayesian model determination. Biometrika 1995, 82:711-732.
    • (1995) Biometrika , vol.82 , pp. 711-732
    • Green, P.1
  • 26
    • 77956890234 scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications
    • Hastings W.K. Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika 1970, 57:97-109.
    • (1970) Biometrika , vol.57 , pp. 97-109
    • Hastings, W.K.1
  • 27
    • 64049100817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone frequency over the East China Sea through a Bayesian Poisson-regression method
    • Ho C.-H., Kim H.S., Chu P.-S., Kim J.-H. Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone frequency over the East China Sea through a Bayesian Poisson-regression method. Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci. 2009, 45:45-54.
    • (2009) Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.45 , pp. 45-54
    • Ho, C.-H.1    Kim, H.S.2    Chu, P.-S.3    Kim, J.-H.4
  • 28
    • 78650086381 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A consensus model for seasonal hurricane prediction
    • Jagger T.H., Elsner J.B. A consensus model for seasonal hurricane prediction. J. Climate 2010, 23:6090-6099.
    • (2010) J. Climate , vol.23 , pp. 6090-6099
    • Jagger, T.H.1    Elsner, J.B.2
  • 29
    • 78649241356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multimodel combination by a Bayesian hierarchical model: assessment of ice accumulation over the oceanic Arctic region
    • Kallache M., Maksimovich E., Michelangeli P.-A., Naveau P. Multimodel combination by a Bayesian hierarchical model: assessment of ice accumulation over the oceanic Arctic region. J. Climate 2010, 23:5421-5436.
    • (2010) J. Climate , vol.23 , pp. 5421-5436
    • Kallache, M.1    Maksimovich, E.2    Michelangeli, P.-A.3    Naveau, P.4
  • 31
    • 79251562052 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pattern classification of typhoon tracks using the fuzzy c-means clustering method
    • Kim H.-S., Ho C.-H., Kim J.-H., Chu P.-S. Pattern classification of typhoon tracks using the fuzzy c-means clustering method. J. Climate 2011, 24:488-508.
    • (2011) J. Climate , vol.24 , pp. 488-508
    • Kim, H.-S.1    Ho, C.-H.2    Kim, J.-H.3    Chu, P.-S.4
  • 32
    • 0033530888 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling
    • Lang M., Ouarda T.B.M.J., Bobe'e B. Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling. J. Hydrol. 1999, 225:103-117.
    • (1999) J. Hydrol. , vol.225 , pp. 103-117
    • Lang, M.1    Ouarda, T.B.M.J.2    Bobe'e, B.3
  • 33
    • 0034825384 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An application of MCMC methods for multiple change-points problem
    • Lavielle M., Labarbier M. An application of MCMC methods for multiple change-points problem. Signal Process. 2001, 81:39-53.
    • (2001) Signal Process. , vol.81 , pp. 39-53
    • Lavielle, M.1    Labarbier, M.2
  • 34
    • 0031658619 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detecting climate signals: some Bayesian aspects
    • Leroy S. Detecting climate signals: some Bayesian aspects. J. Climate 1998, 4:640-651.
    • (1998) J. Climate , vol.4 , pp. 640-651
    • Leroy, S.1
  • 35
    • 77649193501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial scaling in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model for non-stationary multi-site annual maximum and monthly streamflow
    • Lima C.H.R., Lall U. Spatial scaling in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model for non-stationary multi-site annual maximum and monthly streamflow. J. Hydrol. 2010, 383:307-318.
    • (2010) J. Hydrol. , vol.383 , pp. 307-318
    • Lima, C.H.R.1    Lall, U.2
  • 36
    • 78650974237 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the Bayesian multivariate regression method
    • Lu M.-M., Chu P.-S., Lin Y.-C. Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the Bayesian multivariate regression method. Wea. Forecasting 2010, 25:1780-1795.
    • (2010) Wea. Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 1780-1795
    • Lu, M.-M.1    Chu, P.-S.2    Lin, Y.-C.3
  • 38
    • 33745459465 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part I: global mean surface temperature
    • Min S.-K., Hense A. A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part I: global mean surface temperature. J. Climate 2006, 19:3237-3256.
    • (2006) J. Climate , vol.19 , pp. 3237-3256
    • Min, S.-K.1    Hense, A.2
  • 40
    • 0034739220 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian change-point analysis in hydrometeorological time series. Part 1. The normal model revisited
    • Perreaulta L., Berniera J., Bobe'e B., Parent E. Bayesian change-point analysis in hydrometeorological time series. Part 1. The normal model revisited. J. Hydrol. 2000, 235:221-241.
    • (2000) J. Hydrol. , vol.235 , pp. 221-241
    • Perreaulta, L.1    Berniera, J.2    Bobe'e, B.3    Parent, E.4
  • 41
    • 0034739257 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian change-point analysis in hydrometeorological time series. Part 2. Comparison of change-point models and forecasting
    • Perreaulta L., Berniera J., Bobe'e B., Parent E. Bayesian change-point analysis in hydrometeorological time series. Part 2. Comparison of change-point models and forecasting. J. Hydrol. 2000, 235:242-263.
    • (2000) J. Hydrol. , vol.235 , pp. 242-263
    • Perreaulta, L.1    Berniera, J.2    Bobe'e, B.3    Parent, E.4
  • 42
    • 0000297493 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in generalized linear models
    • Raftery A.E. Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in generalized linear models. Biometrica 1996, 83:251-266.
    • (1996) Biometrica , vol.83 , pp. 251-266
    • Raftery, A.E.1
  • 43
    • 33751100654 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical analysis of extreme events in a non-stationary context via a Bayesian framework: case study with peak-over-threshold data
    • Renard B., Lang M., Bois P. Statistical analysis of extreme events in a non-stationary context via a Bayesian framework: case study with peak-over-threshold data. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 2006, 21:97-112.
    • (2006) Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess , vol.21 , pp. 97-112
    • Renard, B.1    Lang, M.2    Bois, P.3
  • 44
    • 18244378520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On Bayesian analysis of mixtures with an unknown number of components
    • Richardson S., Green P.J. On Bayesian analysis of mixtures with an unknown number of components. J. Royal Stat. Soc., Ser. B 1997, 59(4):731-792.
    • (1997) J. Royal Stat. Soc., Ser. B , vol.59 , Issue.4 , pp. 731-792
    • Richardson, S.1    Green, P.J.2
  • 46
    • 0030426539 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of regional information in estimation of extreme point rainfalls
    • Rosbjerg D., Madsen H. The role of regional information in estimation of extreme point rainfalls. Atmospheric Research 1996, 42:113-122.
    • (1996) Atmospheric Research , vol.42 , pp. 113-122
    • Rosbjerg, D.1    Madsen, H.2
  • 47
    • 0037190448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the influence of the proposal distributions on a reversible jump MCMC algorithm applied to the detection of multiple change-points
    • Rotondi R. On the influence of the proposal distributions on a reversible jump MCMC algorithm applied to the detection of multiple change-points. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 2002, 40(3):633-653.
    • (2002) Comput. Stat. Data Anal. , vol.40 , Issue.3 , pp. 633-653
    • Rotondi, R.1
  • 49
    • 0343463010 scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian approach to statistical inference about climate change
    • Solow A.R. A Bayesian approach to statistical inference about climate change. J. Climate 1988, 1:512-521.
    • (1988) J. Climate , vol.1 , pp. 512-521
    • Solow, A.R.1
  • 50
    • 14544276393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional probabilities of precipitation change: a Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations
    • Tebaldi C., Mearns L.O., Nychka D., Smith R.L. Regional probabilities of precipitation change: a Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31:L24213. 10.1029/2004GL021276.
    • (2004) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.31
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Mearns, L.O.2    Nychka, D.3    Smith, R.L.4
  • 51
    • 14544287376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles
    • Tebaldi C., Smith R.L., Nychka D., Mearns L.O. Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles. J. Climate 2005, 18:1524-1540.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 1524-1540
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Smith, R.L.2    Nychka, D.3    Mearns, L.O.4
  • 52
    • 34247544251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis of climate system properties using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods
    • Tomassini L., Reichert P., Knutti R., Stocker T.F., Borsuk M.E. Robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis of climate system properties using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. J. Climate 2007, 20:1239-1254.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.20 , pp. 1239-1254
    • Tomassini, L.1    Reichert, P.2    Knutti, R.3    Stocker, T.F.4    Borsuk, M.E.5
  • 53
    • 46649096427 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayes in the sky: Bayesian inference and model selection in cosmology
    • Trotta R. Bayes in the sky: Bayesian inference and model selection in cosmology. Contemp. Phys. 2008, 49:71-104.
    • (2008) Contemp. Phys. , vol.49 , pp. 71-104
    • Trotta, R.1
  • 54
    • 67749086696 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with Western North Pacific-East Asian climate change
    • Tu J.-Y., Chou C., Chu P.-S. The abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with Western North Pacific-East Asian climate change. J. Climate 2009, 22:3617-3628.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 3617-3628
    • Tu, J.-Y.1    Chou, C.2    Chu, P.-S.3
  • 55
    • 0031429698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The relationship between sea surface temperatures and maximum intensities of tropical cyclones in the eastern North Pacific
    • Whitney L.D., Hobgood J.S. The relationship between sea surface temperatures and maximum intensities of tropical cyclones in the eastern North Pacific. J. Climate 1997, 10:2921-2930.
    • (1997) J. Climate , vol.10 , pp. 2921-2930
    • Whitney, L.D.1    Hobgood, J.S.2
  • 57
    • 33947380080 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Kernel-imbedded Gaussian processes for disease classification using microarray gene expression data
    • Zhao X., Cheung L.W.K. Kernel-imbedded Gaussian processes for disease classification using microarray gene expression data. BMC Bioinforma. 2007, 8:67.
    • (2007) BMC Bioinforma. , vol.8 , pp. 67
    • Zhao, X.1    Cheung, L.W.K.2
  • 58
    • 79957601448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-class kernel-imbedded Gaussian processes for microarray data analysis
    • Zhao X., Cheung L.W.K. Multi-class kernel-imbedded Gaussian processes for microarray data analysis. IEEE/ACM Trans. on Comput. Biol. & Bioinformatics 2011, 8:1041-1053.
    • (2011) IEEE/ACM Trans. on Comput. Biol. & Bioinformatics , vol.8 , pp. 1041-1053
    • Zhao, X.1    Cheung, L.W.K.2
  • 59
    • 33645234893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian multiple changepoint analysis of hurricane activity in the eastern North Pacific: a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach
    • Zhao X., Chu P.-S. Bayesian multiple changepoint analysis of hurricane activity in the eastern North Pacific: a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. J. Climate 2006, 19:564-578.
    • (2006) J. Climate , vol.19 , pp. 564-578
    • Zhao, X.1    Chu, P.-S.2
  • 60
    • 77953665887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian changepoint analysis for extreme events (typhoons, heavy rainfall, and heat waves): a RJMCMC approach
    • Zhao X., Chu P.-S. Bayesian changepoint analysis for extreme events (typhoons, heavy rainfall, and heat waves): a RJMCMC approach. J. Climate 2010, 23:1034-1046.
    • (2010) J. Climate , vol.23 , pp. 1034-1046
    • Zhao, X.1    Chu, P.-S.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.