메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 45, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 45-54

Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone frequency over the East China Sea through a Bayesian poisson-regression method

Author keywords

Bayesian regression; East China Sea; Seasonal prediction; Tropical cyclone

Indexed keywords


EID: 64049100817     PISSN: 19767633     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (8)

References (25)
  • 1
    • 0032419396 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea
    • Chan, J. C. L., J.-E. Shi, and C.-M. Lam, 1998: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 997-1004.
    • (1998) Wea. Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 997-1004
    • Chan, J.C.L.1    Shi, J.-E.2    Lam, C.-M.3
  • 2
    • 0035414793 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific
    • Chan, J. C. L., J.-E. Shi, and K. S. Liu, 2001: Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 491-498.
    • (2001) Wea. Forecasting , vol.16 , pp. 491-498
    • Chan, J.C.L.1    Shi, J.-E.2    Liu, K.S.3
  • 3
    • 0032467927 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling return periods of tropical cyclone intensities in the vicinity of Hawaii
    • Chu, P.-S. and J. X. Wang, 1998: Modeling return periods of tropical cyclone intensities in the vicinity of Hawaii. J. Appl. Meteor., 37, 951-960.
    • (1998) J. Appl. Meteor , vol.37 , pp. 951-960
    • Chu, P.-S.1    Wang, J.X.2
  • 4
    • 19144368731 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ENSO and tropical cyclone activity
    • Eds. R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, Columbia Univ. Press: New York, 462 pp
    • Chu, P.-S., 2004: ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. In Hurricane and Typhoon: Past, Present, and Future, Eds. R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, Columbia Univ. Press: New York, 462 pp.
    • (2004) Hurricane and Typhoon: Past, Present, and Future
    • Chu, P.-S.1
  • 5
    • 36849065743 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method
    • Chu, P.-S., X. Zhao, C.-T. Lee, and M.-M. Lu, 2007: Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method. Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 18, 805-825.
    • (2007) Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci , vol.18 , pp. 805-825
    • Chu, P.-S.1    Zhao, X.2    Lee, C.-T.3    Lu, M.-M.4
  • 6
    • 34548126118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific
    • Chu, P.-S., and X. Zhao, 2007: A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate, 20, 4002-4012.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.20 , pp. 4002-4012
    • Chu, P.-S.1    Zhao, X.2
  • 7
    • 33745833419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts
    • Elsner, J. B., and T. H. Jagger, 2006: Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts. J. Climate, 19, 2935-2952.
    • (2006) J. Climate , vol.19 , pp. 2935-2952
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Jagger, T.H.2
  • 8
    • 64049085122 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epstein, E.-S., 1985: Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology: A Bayesian Approach. Meteor. Monogr., No. 42, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 199 pp.
    • Epstein, E.-S., 1985: Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology: A Bayesian Approach. Meteor. Monogr., No. 42, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 199 pp.
  • 9
    • 0027072715 scopus 로고
    • Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance
    • Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke, and K. J. Berry, 1992: Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 440-455.
    • (1992) Wea. Forecasting , vol.7 , pp. 440-455
    • Gray, W.M.1    Landsea, C.W.2    Mielke, P.W.3    Berry, K.J.4
  • 10
    • 0031732262 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • El Nino-Southern Ocsillation sea surface temperature and wind anomalies 1946-1993
    • Harrison, D. E. and N. K. Larkin, 1998: El Nino-Southern Ocsillation sea surface temperature and wind anomalies 1946-1993. Rev. Geophys., 36, 353-399.
    • (1998) Rev. Geophys , vol.36 , pp. 353-399
    • Harrison, D.E.1    Larkin, N.K.2
  • 12
    • 28044448104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Possible influence of the Antarctic Oscillation on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific
    • Ho, C.-H., J.-H. Kim, H.-S. Kim, C.-H. Sui, and D.-Y. Gong, 2005; Possible influence of the Antarctic Oscillation on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D19104.
    • (2005) J. Geophys. Res , vol.110
    • Ho, C.-H.1    Kim, J.-H.2    Kim, H.-S.3    Sui, C.-H.4    Gong, D.-Y.5
  • 14
    • 25444463359 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Circulation features associated with the record-breaking typhoon landfall on Japan in 2004
    • Kim, J.-H., C.-H. Ho, and C.-H. Sui, 2005a: Circulation features associated with the record-breaking typhoon landfall on Japan in 2004. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14713.
    • (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.32
    • Kim, J.-H.1    Ho, C.-H.2    Sui, C.-H.3
  • 15
    • 31544452100 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dipole structure of interannual variations in summertime tropical cyclone activity over East Asia
    • Kim, J.-H., C.-H. Ho, C.-H. Sui, and S.-K. Park, 2005b: Dipole structure of interannual variations in summertime tropical cyclone activity over East Asia. J. Climate, 18, 5344-5356.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 5344-5356
    • Kim, J.-H.1    Ho, C.-H.2    Sui, C.-H.3    Park, S.-K.4
  • 16
    • 39549083470 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical ensemble prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific
    • Kwon H. J., W.-J. Lee, S.-H. Won, and E.-J. Cha, 2007: Statistical ensemble prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L24805.
    • (2007) Geophys. Res. Lett , vol.34
    • Kwon, H.J.1    Lee, W.-J.2    Won, S.-H.3    Cha, E.-J.4
  • 17
    • 39549121160 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A statistical model for prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific
    • Lee, W.-J., J.-S. Park, and H. J. Kwon, 2007: A statistical model for prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J. Korean Meteor. Soc., 43, 175-183.
    • (2007) J. Korean Meteor. Soc , vol.43 , pp. 175-183
    • Lee, W.-J.1    Park, J.-S.2    Kwon, H.J.3
  • 18
    • 0001600664 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset
    • Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1275-1277.
    • (1996) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.77 , pp. 1275-1277
    • Liebmann, B.1    Smith, C.A.2
  • 19
    • 0141682970 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast
    • Liu, K. S., and J. C. L. Chan, 2003: Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1650-1662.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.131 , pp. 1650-1662
    • Liu, K.S.1    Chan, J.C.L.2
  • 20
    • 80155176595 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Madden-Julian oscillation activity and typhoon landfall on Japan in 2004
    • doi: 10.2151/sola.2006-035
    • Nakazawa T., 2006: Madden-Julian oscillation activity and typhoon landfall on Japan in 2004. Sci. Online Lett. Atmos., 2, 136-139, doi: 10.2151/sola.2006-035.
    • (2006) Sci. Online Lett. Atmos , vol.2 , pp. 136-139
    • Nakazawa, T.1
  • 21
    • 64049084791 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2008 Essential Statistics and Data
    • NEMA, 383 pp, Available online at, In Korean
    • NEMA, 2008: 2008 Essential Statistics and Data. National Emergency Management Agency, 383 pp. [Available online at http://www.nema.go.kr/ data/statistic/list.jsp.] (In Korean).
    • (2008) National Emergency Management Agency
  • 22
    • 45349109008 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006)
    • Smith, T. M., R.W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2007: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283-2296.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.21 , pp. 2283-2296
    • Smith, T.M.1    Reynolds, R.W.2    Peterson, T.C.3    Lawrimore, J.4
  • 23
    • 0035888511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual variability of Asian summer monsoon: Contrast between the Indian and western North Pacific-East Asian monsoons
    • Wang, B., R. Wu, and K.-M. Lau, 2001: Interannual variability of Asian summer monsoon: Contrast between the Indian and western North Pacific-East Asian monsoons. J. Climate, 14, 4073-4090.
    • (2001) J. Climate , vol.14 , pp. 4073-4090
    • Wang, B.1    Wu, R.2    Lau, K.-M.3
  • 24
    • 36248980933 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting and warning of tropical cyclone in China
    • doi:10.2481/ dsj.6.S723
    • Wang, B., Y. Xu, and B. Bi, 2007: Forecasting and warning of tropical cyclone in China. Data Sci. J., 6, S723-S737. doi:10.2481/ dsj.6.S723.
    • (2007) Data Sci. J , vol.6
    • Wang, B.1    Xu, Y.2    Bi, B.3
  • 25
    • 64049083842 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WMO, 2002: Standardized verification system for longrange forecasts, New attachment II-9 to the manual on the GDPFS. WMO No. 485, World Meteorological Organization, 22 pp.
    • WMO, 2002: Standardized verification system for longrange forecasts, New attachment II-9 to the manual on the GDPFS. WMO No. 485, World Meteorological Organization, 22 pp.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.