메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 23, Issue 13, 2010, Pages 3425-3445

A bayesian regression approach to seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones affecting the Fiji region

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATOLOGY; HURRICANES; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

EID: 77955508187     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3521.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (19)

References (63)
  • 2
    • 0029478387 scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclonesinthe southwest Pacific: Spatial patterns and relationships to Southern Oscillation and sea surface temperature
    • Basher, R.E., and X. Zheng, 1995: Tropical cyclonesinthe southwest Pacific: Spatial patterns and relationships to Southern Oscillation and sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 8, 1249-1260.
    • (1995) J. Climate , vol.8 , pp. 1249-1260
    • Basher, R.E.1    Zheng, X.2
  • 4
    • 0019172049 scopus 로고
    • The computation of equivalent potential temperature
    • Bolton, D., 1980: The computation of equivalent potential temperature. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1046-1053.
    • (1980) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.108 , pp. 1046-1053
    • Bolton, D.1
  • 5
    • 0001463968 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Large-scale influences on tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific
    • Briegel, L. M., and W. M. Frank, 1997: Large-scale influences on tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1397-1413.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 1397-1413
    • Briegel, L.M.1    Frank, W.M.2
  • 6
    • 21844464958 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO
    • Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel, 2005: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J. Climate, 18, 2996-3006.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 2996-3006
    • Camargo, S.J.1    Sobel, A.H.2
  • 8
    • 0022190472 scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon
    • Chan, J. C. L., 1985: Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 599-606.
    • (1985) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.113 , pp. 599-606
    • Chan, J.C.L.1
  • 9
    • 0034253145 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events
    • Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960-2972.
    • (2000) J. Climate , vol.13 , pp. 2960-2972
    • Chan, J.C.L.1
  • 10
    • 34547399580 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual variations of intense typhoon activity
    • Chan, J. C. L., 2007: Interannual variations of intense typhoon activity. Tellus, 59A, 455-460.
    • (2007) Tellus , vol.59 A , pp. 455-460
    • Chan, J.C.L.1
  • 11
    • 0020220528 scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone movement and surrounding flow relationships
    • Chan, J. C. L., and W. M. Gray, 1982: Tropical cyclone movement and surrounding flow relationships. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 1354-1374.
    • (1982) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.110 , pp. 1354-1374
    • Chan, J.C.L.1    Gray, W.M.2
  • 12
    • 0032419396 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea
    • Chan, J. C. L., J. Shi, and C. M. Lam, 1998: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 997-1004.
    • (1998) Wea. Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 997-1004
    • Chan, J.C.L.1    Shi, J.2    Lam, C.M.3
  • 13
    • 0035414793 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific
    • Chan, J. C. L., J. E. Shi, and C. M. Liu, 2001: Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 491-498.
    • (2001) Wea. Forecasting , vol.16 , pp. 491-498
    • Chan, J.C.L.1    Shi, J.E.2    Liu, C.M.3
  • 14
    • 68749108376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone activity in the Fiji region: Spatial patterns and relationship to large-scale circulation
    • Chand, S. S., and K. J. E. Walsh, 2009: Tropical cyclone activity in the Fiji region: Spatial patterns and relationship to large-scale circulation. J. Climate, 22, 3877-3893.
    • (2009) J. Climate , vol.22 , pp. 3877-3893
    • Chand, S.S.1    Walsh, K.J.E.2
  • 15
    • 0037109320 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific
    • Chia, H. H., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2934-2944.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 2934-2944
    • Chia, H.H.1    Ropelewski, C.F.2
  • 16
    • 34548126118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian regression approach for predicting tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific
    • Chu, P.-S., and X. Zhao, 2007: A Bayesian regression approach for predicting tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate, 20, 4002-4013.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.20 , pp. 4002-4013
    • Chu, P.-S.1    Zhao, X.2
  • 17
    • 72549114209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adapting the Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure relationship for operational use in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres
    • Courtney, J., and J. A. Knaff, 2009: Adapting the Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure relationship for operational use in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 58, 167-179.
    • (2009) Aust. Meteor. Mag. , vol.58 , pp. 167-179
    • Courtney, J.1    Knaff, J.A.2
  • 18
    • 0027786404 scopus 로고
    • Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity
    • Elsner, J. B., and C. P. Schmertmann, 1993: Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 345-351.
    • (1993) Wea. Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 345-351
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Schmertmann, C.P.2
  • 19
    • 0028576687 scopus 로고
    • Assessing forecast skill through cross validation
    • Elsner, J. B., and C. P. Schmertmann, 1994: Assessing forecast skill through cross validation. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 619-624.
    • (1994) Wea. Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 619-624
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Schmertmann, C.P.2
  • 20
    • 4043064161 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling
    • Elsner, J. B., and T. H. Jagger, 2004: A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling. J. Climate, 17, 2813-2827.
    • (2004) J. Climate , vol.17 , pp. 2813-2827
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Jagger, T.H.2
  • 21
    • 33745833419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction models for annual U.S hurricane counts
    • Elsner, J. B., and T. H. Jagger, 2006: Prediction models for annual U.S hurricane counts. J. Climate, 19, 2935-2952.
    • (2006) J. Climate , vol.19 , pp. 2935-2952
    • Elsner, J.B.1    Jagger, T.H.2
  • 22
    • 0027063189 scopus 로고
    • El Niño/Southern Oscillation modification to the structure of the monsoon and tropical cyclone activity in the Australasian region
    • Evans, J. L., and R. L. Allan, 1992: El Niño/Southern Oscillation modification to the structure of the monsoon and tropical cyclone activity in the Australasian region. Int. J. Climatol., 12, 611-623.
    • (1992) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.12 , pp. 611-623
    • Evans, J.L.1    Allan, R.L.2
  • 23
    • 34548030473 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effect of ENSO on Queensland seasonal landfalling tropical cyclone activity
    • Flay, S., and J. Nott, 2007: Effect of ENSO on Queensland seasonal landfalling tropical cyclone activity. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1327-1334.
    • (2007) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.27 , pp. 1327-1334
    • Flay, S.1    Nott, J.2
  • 25
    • 84950453304 scopus 로고
    • Sampling based approaches to calculating marginal densities
    • Gelfand, A. E., and A. F. M. Smith, 1990: Sampling based approaches to calculating marginal densities. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 85, 398-409.
    • (1990) J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. , vol.85 , pp. 398-409
    • Gelfand, A.E.1    Smith, A.F.M.2
  • 26
    • 77951892152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual and inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea
    • Goh, A. Z.-C., and J. C. L. Chan, 2010: Interannual and inter-decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 827-843.
    • (2010) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.30 , pp. 827-843
    • Goh, A.Z.-C.1    Chan, J.C.L.2
  • 27
    • 18844478266 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal and ENSO variations of sea surface salinity and temperature in the South Pacific Convergence Zone during 1976-2000
    • doi:10.1029/2001JC000830
    • Gouriou, Y., and T. Delcroix, 2002: Seasonal and ENSO variations of sea surface salinity and temperature in the South Pacific Convergence Zone during 1976-2000. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 3185, doi:10.1029/2001JC000830.
    • (2002) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.107 , pp. 3185
    • Gouriou, Y.1    Delcroix, T.2
  • 28
    • 0000980508 scopus 로고
    • Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms
    • Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-700.
    • (1968) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.96 , pp. 669-700
    • Gray, W.M.1
  • 29
    • 0004001014 scopus 로고
    • Department of Atmospheric Science Paper 234, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, [Available from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO 80523.]
    • Gray, W. M., 1975: Tropical cyclone genesis. Department of Atmospheric Science Paper 234, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 121 pp. [Available from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO 80523.]
    • (1975) Tropical cyclone genesis , pp. 121
    • Gray, W.M.1
  • 30
    • 0001233080 scopus 로고
    • Hurricanes: Their formation structure, and likely role in the tropical circulation
    • D. B. Shaw, Ed., Royal Meteorological Society
    • Gray, W. M., 1979: Hurricanes: Their formation structure, and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology Over Tropical Oceans, D. B. Shaw, Ed., Royal Meteorological Society, 155-218.
    • (1979) Meteorology Over Tropical Oceans , pp. 155-218
    • Gray, W.M.1
  • 31
    • 0021551998 scopus 로고
    • Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II: Forecasting its variability
    • Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II: Forecasting its variability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1669-1683.
    • (1984) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.112 , pp. 1669-1683
    • Gray, W.M.1
  • 33
    • 77955503613 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Review Topic B3e: Tropical cyclones. Naval Postgraduate School Press
    • Harr, A. P., 2004: Monsoon impacts on tropical cyclone variability. Review Topic B3e: Tropical cyclones. Naval Postgraduate School Press, 31 pp.
    • (2004) Monsoon impacts on tropical cyclone variability , pp. 31
    • Harr, A.P.1
  • 34
    • 0025243118 scopus 로고
    • Southern Oscillation influence on tropical cyclone activity in the Australian/south-west Pacific region
    • Hastings, P. A., 1990: Southern Oscillation influence on tropical cyclone activity in the Australian/south-west Pacific region. Int. J. Climatol., 10, 291-298.
    • (1990) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.10 , pp. 291-298
    • Hastings, P.A.1
  • 35
    • 0029768948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Re-analysis Project
    • Coauthors
    • Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Re-analysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
    • (1996) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , vol.77 , pp. 437-471
    • Kalnay, E.1
  • 36
    • 0141682970 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast
    • Liu, K. S., and J. C. L. Chan, 2003: Climatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1650-1662.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 1650-1662
    • Liu, K.S.1    Chan, J.C.L.2
  • 37
    • 0036275275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Pacific decadal oscillation
    • Mantua, N. J., and S. R. Hare, 2002: The Pacific decadal oscillation. J. Oceanogr., 58, 35-44.
    • (2002) J. Oceanogr. , vol.58 , pp. 35-44
    • Mantua, N.J.1    Hare, S.R.2
  • 38
    • 0035529541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian approach to selecting covariates for prediction
    • Marriott, J. M., N. M. Spencer, and A. N. Pettitt, 2001: A Bayesian approach to selecting covariates for prediction. Scand. J. Stat., 28, 87-97.
    • (2001) Scand. J. Stat. , vol.28 , pp. 87-97
    • Marriott, J.M.1    Spencer, N.M.2    Pettitt, A.N.3
  • 39
    • 1842790078 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Poisson regression model of tropical cyclogenesis for the Australian-southwest Pacific Ocean region
    • McDonnell, K. A., and N. J. Holbrook, 2004: A Poisson regression model of tropical cyclogenesis for the Australian-southwest Pacific Ocean region. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 440-455.
    • (2004) Wea. Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 440-455
    • McDonnell, K.A.1    Holbrook, N.J.2
  • 41
    • 0018727289 scopus 로고
    • A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region
    • Nicholls, N., 1979: A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region. Mon. Wea. Rev., 107, 1221-1224.
    • (1979) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.107 , pp. 1221-1224
    • Nicholls, N.1
  • 42
    • 0021572098 scopus 로고
    • The Southern Oscillation, sea-surface temperature, and interannual fluctuations in Australian tropical cyclone activity
    • Nicholls, N., 1984: The Southern Oscillation, sea-surface temperature, and interannual fluctuations in Australian tropical cyclone activity. Int. J. Climatol., 4, 661-670.
    • (1984) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.4 , pp. 661-670
    • Nicholls, N.1
  • 43
    • 0022264208 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of interannual variations of Australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity
    • Nicholls, N., 1985: Predictability of interannual variations of Australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1144-1149.
    • (1985) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.113 , pp. 1144-1149
    • Nicholls, N.1
  • 44
    • 0027009941 scopus 로고
    • Recent performance of a method for forecasting Australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity
    • Nicholls, N., 1992: Recent performance of a method for forecasting Australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 40, 105-110.
    • (1992) Aust. Meteor. Mag. , vol.40 , pp. 105-110
    • Nicholls, N.1
  • 45
    • 0001313431 scopus 로고
    • Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions
    • North, G. R., T. L. Bell, and R. F. Chalan, 1982: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 699-706.
    • (1982) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.110 , pp. 699-706
    • North, G.R.1    Bell, T.L.2    Chalan, R.F.3
  • 47
    • 44349171255 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Role of large-scale environment
    • Ramsay, H. A., L. M. Leslie, P. J. Lamb, M. B. Richman, and M. Leplastrier, 2008: Interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Role of large-scale environment. J. Climate, 21, 1083-1103.
    • (2008) J. Climate , vol.21 , pp. 1083-1103
    • Ramsay, H.A.1    Leslie, L.M.2    Lamb, P.J.3    Richman, M.B.4    Leplastrier, M.5
  • 49
    • 0000904281 scopus 로고
    • Lagged relationships between Southern Oscillation and numbers of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region
    • Revell, C. G., and S. W. Goulter, 1986a: Lagged relationships between Southern Oscillation and numbers of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 2669-2670.
    • (1986) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.114 , pp. 2669-2670
    • Revell, C.G.1    Goulter, S.W.2
  • 50
    • 0022923284 scopus 로고
    • South Pacific tropical cyclones and the Southern Oscillation
    • Revell, C. G., and S. W. Goulter, 1986b: South Pacific tropical cyclones and the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1138-1145.
    • (1986) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.114 , pp. 1138-1145
    • Revell, C.G.1    Goulter, S.W.2
  • 52
    • 0036509498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extratropical transition of southwest Pacific tropical cyclones. Part I: Climatology and mean structure changes
    • Sinclair, M. R., 2002: Extratropical transition of southwest Pacific tropical cyclones. Part I: Climatology and mean structure changes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 590-609.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 590-609
    • Sinclair, M.R.1
  • 53
    • 3242698027 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997)
    • Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2004: Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997). J. Climate, 17, 2466-2477.
    • (2004) J. Climate , vol.17 , pp. 2466-2477
    • Smith, T.M.1    Reynolds, R.W.2
  • 54
    • 77955505219 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • cited: StatBox 4.1: A statistics toolbox for Matlab, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, Melbourne, Australia
    • Smyth, G. K., cited 2009: StatBox 4.1: A statistics toolbox for Matlab, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, Melbourne, Australia. [Available online at http://www.statsci.org/matlab/statbox.html.]
    • (2009)
    • Smyth, G.K.1
  • 55
    • 0001182468 scopus 로고
    • The relationship between the Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region
    • Solow, A., and N. Nicholls, 1990: The relationship between the Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region. J. Climate, 3, 1097-1101.
    • (1990) J. Climate , vol.3 , pp. 1097-1101
    • Solow, A.1    Nicholls, N.2
  • 57
  • 59
    • 84952528400 scopus 로고
    • Spatial and temporal variations of the Southern Oscillation
    • Trenberth, K. E., 1976: Spatial and temporal variations of the Southern Oscillation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 102, 639-653.
    • (1976) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.102 , pp. 639-653
    • Trenberth, K.E.1
  • 60
    • 0023554826 scopus 로고
    • On the evolution of the Southern Oscillation
    • Trenberth, K. E., and D. J. Shea, 1987: On the evolution of the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 3078-3096.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 3078-3096
    • Trenberth, K.E.1    Shea, D.J.2
  • 61
    • 0036649106 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific
    • Wang, B., and J. C. L. Chan, 2002: How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 1643-1658.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 1643-1658
    • Wang, B.1    Chan, J.C.L.2
  • 63
    • 23644435616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Madden-Julian oscillation
    • doi:10.1029/2004RG000158
    • Zhang, C., 2005: Madden-Julian oscillation. Rev. Geophys., 43, RG2003, doi:10.1029/2004RG000158.
    • (2005) Rev. Geophys. , vol.43
    • Zhang, C.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.