Climate change - An uncertainty factor in risk analysis of contaminated land

Science of the Total Environment

Volumn 409, Issue 22, 2011, Pages 4693-4700

  Augustsson, Anna ^a   Filipsson, Monika ^a   Öberg, Tomas ^a   Bergbäck, Bo ^a  

^a LINNAEUS UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Cadmium; Climate change; Exposure assessment; Probability bounds analysis; Risk analysis; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

BIOCONCENTRATION FACTOR; CLIMATE EFFECTS; CONTAMINATED LANDS; CONTAMINATED SITES; DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES; DISTRIBUTION COEFFICIENT; EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT; EXPOSURE LEVEL; GROUND-WATER INFILTRATION; INPUT DATAS; IRON AND STEEL WORKS; LITERATURE REVIEWS; LONG-TERM CHANGES; MANAGEMENT DECISIONS; MODEL VARIABLES; PROBABILITY BOUND; PROBABILITY BOUNDS ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY FACTORS; UPPER BOUND;

CADMIUM; CLIMATE MODELS; CONTAMINATION; GEOLOGIC MODELS; GROUNDWATER; METAL ANALYSIS; RISK ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK MANAGEMENT; SOIL MOISTURE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CADMIUM; GROUND WATER;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CADMIUM; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CONTAMINATED LAND; LONG-TERM CHANGE; POLLUTION EXPOSURE; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; TOXICITY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ARTICLE; CHILD; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE; HUMAN; HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY; IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOIL MOISTURE; SOIL POLLUTION; SWEDEN; WATER CONTAMINATION;

CADMIUM; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE; ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION; GROUNDWATER; HUMANS; METALLURGY; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOIL; SWEDEN;

SWEDEN;

EID: 80053328076     PISSN: 00489697     EISSN: 18791026     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.07.051     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Angove M.J., Johnson B.B., Wells J.D. The influence of temperature on the adsorption of cadmium (II) and cobalt (II) on kaolinite. J Colloid Interface Sci 1998, 204:93-103.
2. Angove M.J., Wells J.D., Johnson B.B. The influence of temperature on the adsorption of cadmium (II) and cobalt (II) on goethite. J Colloid Interface Sci 1999, 211:281-290.
3. Andersland O.B., Wiggert D.C., Davies S.H. Frozen soil subsurface barriers: formation and ice erosion. J Contam Hydrol 1996, 23:133-147.
4. Andréasson J., Bergström S., Carlsson B., Graham L.P., Lindström G. Hydrological change - climate change impact simulations for Sweden. Ambio 2004, 33:228-234.
5. Antoniadis V., Alloway B.J. Availability of Cd, Ni and Zn to ryegrass in sewage sludge-treated soils at different temperatures. Water Air Soil Pollut 2001, 132:201-214.
6. Baghour M., Moreno D.A., Hernández J., Castilla N., Romero L. Influence of root temperature on phytoaccumulation of As, Ag, Cr and Sb in potato plants (Solanum tuberosum L. var. Spunta). J Environ Sci Health A 2001, 36:1389-1401.
7. Baker H., Khalili F. Analysis of the removal of lead (II) from aqueous solutions by adsorption onto insolubilized humix acid: temperature and pH dependence. Anal Chim Acta 2004, 516:179-186.
8. Barrow N.J. Effects of time and temperature on the sorption of cadmium, zinc, cobalt, and nickel by a soil. Aust J Soil Res 1998, 36:941-950.
9. Bergström, S. Development and application of a conceptual runoff model for Scandinavian catchments. Ph.D. Thesis. SMHI Reports RHO No. 7, Norrköping; 1976.
10. Bergström S., Carlsson B., Gardelin M., Lindström G., Pettersson A., Rummukainen M. Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden - assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling. Clim Res 2001, 16:101-112.
11. Binkowitz B.S., Wartenberg D. Disparity in quantitative risk assessment: a review of input distributions. Risk Anal 2001, 21:75-90.
12. Bogen K.T. Risk analysis for environmental health triage. Risk Anal 2005, 25:1085-1095.
13. Bogen K.T., Cullen A.C., Frey H.C., Price P.S. Probabilistic exposure analysis for chemical risk characterization. Toxicol Sci 2009, 109:4-17.
14. Brand E., Otte P.F., Lijzen J.P.A. CSOIL 2000: an exposure model for human risk assessment of soil contamination. A model description. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands 2007, [RIVM report 711701054/2007].
15. Chawla G., Singh J., Viswanathan P.N. Effect of pH and temperature on the uptake of cadmium by Lemna minor L. Bull Environ Contam Toxicol 1991, 47:84-90.
16. Constantz J. Temperature dependence of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity of two soils. Soil Sci Soc Am J 1982, 46:466-470.
17. Davison W. Iron and manganese in lakes. Earth Sci Rev 1993, 34:119-163.
18. Degryse F., Smolders E., Parker D.R. Partitioning of metals (Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn) in soils: concepts, methodologies, prediction and applications - a review. Eur J Soil Sci 2009, 60:590-612.
19. ECETOC Exposure factors sourcebook for european populations (with focus on UK data). Brussels: European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals 2001.
20. Eckhardt K., Ulbrich U. Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range. J Hydrol 2003, 284:244-252.
21. Efron B., Tibshirani R.J. An introduction to the bootstrap 1998, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton.
22. Ferson S. RAMAS Risk Calc 4.0 software: risk assessment with uncertain numbers 2002, Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton.
23. Filipsson M., Lindström M., Peltola P., Öberg T. Exposure to contaminated sediments during recreational activities at a public bathing place. J Hazard Mater 2009, 171:200-207.
24. Filipsson M., Öberg T., Bergbäck B. Variability and uncertainty in Swedish exposure factors for use in quantitative risk assessments. Risk Anal 2011, 31:108-119.
25. Green T.R., Taniguchi M., Kooi H. Potential impacts of climate change and human activity on subsurface water resources. Vadose Zone J 2007, 6:531-532.
26. Green T.R., Bates B.C., Charles S.P., Fleming P.M. Physically based simulation of potential effects of carbon dioxide - altered climates on groundwater recharge. Vadose Zone J 2007, 6:597-609.
27. Green-Ruiz C. Effect of salinity and temperature on the adsorption of Hg(II) from aqueous solutions by Ca-montmorillonite. Environ Technol 2009, 30:63-68.
28. Greskowiak J., Prommer H., Massmann G., Johnston C.D., Nützmann G., Pekdeger A. The impact of variably saturated conditions on hydrogeochemical changes during artificial recharge of groundwater. Appl Geochem 2005, 20:1409-1426.
29. Hansson K., Simunek J., Mizoguchi M., Lundin L.-C., van Genuchten M.T. Water flow and heat transport in frozen soil: numerical solution and freeze-thaw applications. Vadose Zone J 2004, 3:693-704.
30. Herrera-Pantoja M., Hiscock K.M. The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain. Hydrol Process 2008, 22:73-86.
31. Hooda P.S., Alloway B.J. Effects of time and temperature on the bioavailability of Cd and Pb from sludge-amended soils. J Soil Sci 1993, 44:97-110.
32. Jager T., Vermeire T.G., Rikken M.G.J., van der Poel P. Opportunities for a probabilistic risk assessment of chemicals in the European Union. Chemosphere 2001, 43:257-264.
33. Johnson B.B. Effect of pH, temperature, and concentration on the adsorption of cadmium on goethite. Environ Sci Technol 1990, 24:112-118.
34. Jyrkama M.I., Sykes J.F. The impact of climate change on spatially varying groundwater recharge in the grand river watershed (Ontario). J Hydrol 2007, 338:237-250.
35. Järup L., Åkesson A. Current status of cadmium as an environmental health problem. Toxicol Appl Pharmacol 2009, 238:201-208.
36. Langmuir D. Aqueous environmental chemistry 1997, Prentice-Hall, Inc., New Jersey.
37. Lester R.R., Green L.C., Linkov I. Site-specific applications of probabilistic health risk assessment: review of the literature since 2000. Risk Anal 2007, 27:635-658.
38. 2: temperature dependence. J Colloid Interface Sci 2008, 319:385-391.
39. Lin C.Y., Greenwald D., Banin A. Temperature dependence of infiltration rate during large scale water recharge into soils. Soil Sci Soc Am J 2003, 67:487-493.
40. Macek T., Kotrba P., Suchova M., Skacel F., Demnerova K., Ruml T. Accumulation of cadmium by hairy-root cultures of Solanum nigrum. Biotechnol Lett 1994, 16:621-624.
41. Marscher H. Mineral nutrition of higher plants 1995, Academic Press Limited, London.
42. Meehl G.A., Stocker T.F., Collins W.D., Friedlingstein P., Gaye A.T., Gregory J.M., et al. Global climate projections. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt (Eds.).
43. Moya J., Bearer C.F., Etzel R.A. Children's behavior and physiology and how it affects exposure to environmental contaminants. Pediatrics 2004, 113:996-1006.
44. Otte P.F., Lijzen J.P.A., Otte J.G., Swartjes F.A., Versluijs C.W. Evaluation and revision of the CSOIL parameter set. Bilthoven: RIVM Report 711701021 2001.
45. Regan H.M., Sample B.E., Ferson S. Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic calculation of ecological soil screening levels. Environ Toxicol Chem 2002, 21:882-890.
46. Rodda D.P., Johnson B.B., Wells J.D. The effect of temperature and pH on the adsorption of copper(II), lead(II), and zinc(II) onto goethite. J Colloid Interface Sci 1993, 161:57-62.
47. Rodhe A., Lindström G., Dahnée J. Grundvattennivåer i ett förändrat klimat. Slutrapport från SGU-projektet "Grundvattennivåer i ett förändrat klimat" Proj nr 60-1642/2007 2009, [in Swedish].
48. Sander P., Bergbäck B., Öberg T. Uncertain numbers and uncertainty in the selection of input distributions - consequences for a probabilistic risk assessment of contaminated land. Risk Anal 2006, 26:1363-1375.
49. Sander P., Öberg T. Comparing deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments. A case study at a closed steel mill in southern Sweden. J Soil Sediments 2006, 6:55-61.
50. Sauvé S., Hendershot W., Allen H.E. Solid-solution partitioning of metals in contaminated soils: dependence on pH, total metal burden, and organic matter. Environ Sci Technol 2000, 34:1125-1131.
51. Scibek J., Allen D.M. Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resour Res 2006, 42:W11405.
52. Serrat-Capdevila A., Valdés J.B., Pérez J.G., Baird K., Mata L.J., Maddock T. Modeling climate change impacts - and uncertainty - on the hydrology of a riparian system: the San Pedro Basin (Arizona/Sanora). J Hydrol 2007, 347:48-66.
53. Sheffield J., Wood E.F. Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim Dyn 2008, 31:79-105.
54. Sinegani A.A.S., Araki H.M. The effects of soil properties and temperature on the adsorption isotherms of lead on some temperate and semiarid surface soils of Iran. Environ Chem Lett 2010, 8:129-137.
55. Srivastava A., Srivastava P.C. Adsorption-desorption behaviour of zinc(II) at iron(III) hydroxide-aqueous solution interface as influenced by pH and temperature. Environ Pollut 1990, 68:171-180.
56. Swedish EPA Riktvärden för förorenad mark - modellbeskrivning och vägledning. Stockholm: Naturvårdsverket Rapport 5976 2009, [in Swedish].
57. Swedish EPA [Accessed on Feb 7; 2011]. http://www.naturvardsverket.se/sv/Verksamheter-med-miljopaverkan/Efterbehandling-av-fororenade-omraden/Laget-i-landet--efterbehandling/.
58. Swedish Geotechnical Institute, SGI Studie av metallspridning till Ronnebyån från förorenade områden vid Kallinge Bruk 2001, Statens Geotekniska Institut, Linköping, [in Swedish].
59. US EPA Guiding principles for Monte Carlo Analysis 1997, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, [EPA/630/R-97/001].
60. US EPA Exposure factors handbook 1997, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, [EPA/600/P-95/002F].
61. Wang G.L. Agricultural drought in future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment. Clim Dyn 2005, 25:739-753.
62. Climate change 1995, impacts adaptations, and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses. Contribution of working group II to the second assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change 1996, Cambride Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK. R.T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera, R.H. Moss (Eds.).
63. Xu D., Tan X.L., Chen C.L., Wang X.K. Adsorption of Pb(II) from aqueous solution to MX-80 bentonite: effect of pH, ionic strength, foreign ions and temperature. Appl Clay Sci 2008, 41:37-46.
64. Yadava K.P., Tyagi B.S., Singh V.N. Effect of temperature on the removal of lead(II) by adsorption on China clay and Wollastonite. J Chem Technol Biotechnol 1991, 51:47-60.
65. Yu X.Z., Trapp S., Zhou P.H., Hu H. The effect of temperature on the rate of cyanide metabolism of two woody plants. Chemosphere 2005, 59:1099-1104.
66. Yu X.Z., Peng X.Y., Xing L.Q. Effect of temperature on phytoextraction of hexavalent and trivalent chromium by hybrid willows. Ecotoxicology 2010, 16:61-68.
67. Öberg T., Bergbäck B. A review of probabilistic risk assessment of contaminated land. J Soils Sediments 2005, 5:213-224.
68. Öberg Probabilistisk riskbedömning fas 1. Sannolikhetsbaserad uppskattning av miljö- och hälsorisker i förorenade markområden - en litteraturöversikt. Stockholm: Naturvårdsverket Rapport 5532 2006, [in Swedish].