The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain

Hydrological Processes

Volumn 22, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 73-86

  Herrera Pantoja, M ^a   Hiscock, K M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change scenarios; Evapotranspiration; Extreme events; Groundwater resources; Potential groundwater recharge; Stochastic weather generator

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; GAS EMISSIONS; GREENHOUSE GASES; RANDOM PROCESSES; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS; GROUNDWATER RECHARGE; STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATOR;

GROUNDWATER RESOURCES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; GAS EMISSIONS; GREENHOUSE GASES; GROUNDWATER RESOURCES; RANDOM PROCESSES; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE CHANGE; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; EXTREME EVENT; GROUNDWATER; GROUNDWATER RESOURCE; RECHARGE; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER SUPPLY;

EAST ANGLIA; ENGLAND; EURASIA; EUROPE; PAISLEY; RENFREWSHIRE; SCOTLAND; UNITED KINGDOM; WESTERN EUROPE;

EID: 38549094260     PISSN: 08856087     EISSN: 10991085     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6620     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M. 1998. Crop Evapotranspiration-Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: Rome.
2. Arnell NW, Reynard NS. 1996. The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology 183: 397-424.
3. Barnett C, Hossell J, Perry M, Procter C, Hughes G. 2006. A handbook of climate trends across Scotland. SNIFFER project CC03, Scotland & Northern Ireland Forum for Environment Research.
4. Bloomfield JP, Williams RJ, Gooddy DC, Cape IN, Guha P. 2006. Impacts of climate change on the fate and behaviour of pesticides in surface and groundwater - a UK perspective. Science of the Total Environment 369: 163-177.
5. Boorman DB, Hollis J, Lilly A. 1995. Hydrology of soil types: a hydrologically-based classification of the soils of the United Kingdom. Institute of Hydrology Report No.126. Institute of Hydrology: Wallingford.
6. Bouma J, Droogers P. 1999. Comparing different methods for estimating the soil moisture supply capacity of a soil series subjected to different types of management. Geoderma 92: 185-197.
7. Bradbury CG, Rushton KR. 1998. Estimating runoff-recharge in the Southern Lincolnshire Limestone catchment, UK. Journal of Hydrology 211: 86-99.
8. British Geological Survey. 1988. 1:625 000 hydrogeological map of Scotland. Natural Environment Research Council.
9. Brouyère S, Carabin G, Dassargues A. 2004. Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium. Hydrogeology Journal 12: 123-134.
10. Chen M, Soulsby C, Younger PL. 1999. Modelling the evolution of mine water pollution at Polkemmet Colliery, Almond catchment, Scotland. The Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology 32: 351-362.
11. Chen Z, Grasby SE, Osadetz KG. 2004. Relation between climate variability and groundwater levels in the upper carbonate aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. Journal of Hydrology, 290: 43-62.
12. Church R. 2005. A groundwater recharge methodology for Water Framework Directive initial characterization in Scotland. Scottish Journal of Geology 41: 31-37.
13. Collison A, Wade S, Griffiths J, Dehn M. 2000. Modelling the impact of predicted climate change on landslide frequency and magnitude in SE England. Engineering Geology 55: 205-218.
14. Cross GA, Rushton KR, Tomlinson LM. 1995. The East Kent Chalk Aquifer during the 1988-92 drought. Journal of Water and Environmental Management 9: 1-37.
15. Dibike YB, Coulibaly P. 2005. Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. Journal of Hydrology 307: 145-163.
16. Eckhardt K, Ulbrich U. 2003. Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range. Journal of Hydrology 284: 244-252.
17. Elshamy ME, Wheater HS, Gedney N, Huntingford C. 2006. Evaluation of the rainfall component of a weather generator for climate impact studies. Journal of Hydrology 326: 1-24.
18. Environment Agency. 2001. Water resources for the future: a strategy for the Anglian Region. Environment Agency, Peterborough.
19. Finch JW, Bradford RB, Hudson JA. 2004. The spatial distribution of groundwater flooding in a chalk catchment in southern England. Hydrological Processes 18: 959-971.
20. Flint AL, Childs SW. 1991. Use of the Priestley-Taylor evaporation equation for soil water limited conditions in a small forest clearcut. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 56: 247-260.
21. Fcjt WJ. 1994. Dehydration and the threat to East Anglian fens, England. Biological Conservation 69: 163-175.
22. Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, O'Connell PE, Burton A. 2005. A weather-type conditioned multi-site stochastic rainfall model for the generation of scenarios of climatic variability and change. Journal of Hydrology 308: 50-66.
23. Gregory JM, Wigley TML, Jones PD. 1993. Application of Markov models to area-average daily precipitation series and interannual variability in seasonal totals. Climate Dynamics 8: 299-310.
24. Grindley J. 1967. The estimation of soil moisture deficits. The Meteorological Magazine 96: 97-109.
25. Grindley J. 1969. The calculation of actual evaporation and soil moisture deficits over specified catchment areas. Memoir No. 38. Meteorological Office, Bracknell.
26. Hargreaves GH, Samani ZA. 1982. Estimation of potential evapotranspiration. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Division, Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers 108: 223-230.
27. Hess T. 1996. Evapotranspiration estimates for water balance scheduling in the UK. Irrigation News 25: 31-36.
28. Hiscock KM. 2005. Hydrogeology: Principles and Practice. Blackwell: Oxford.
29. Holman IP. 2006. Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge - uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward? Hydrogeology Journal 14: 637-647.
30. Holman IP, Rounsevell MDA, Shackley S, Harrison PA, Nicholls RJ, Berry PM, Audsley E. 2005. A regional, multi-sectorial and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part i. Methodology. Climatic Change 71: 9-41.
31. Holman IP, Loveland PJ, Nicholls RJ, Shackley S, Berry PM, Rounsevell MDA, Audsley E, Harrison PA, Wood R. 2001. REGIS - Regional Climate Change Impact Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England. Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, London.
32. Hough M, Palmer S, Weir A, Lee M, Barrie I. 1997. The Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System: MORECS version 2.0 (1995). The Meteorological Office, UK.
33. Hough MN, Jones RJA. 1997. The United Kingdom Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System: MORECS version 2.0 - an overview. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 1: 227-239.
34. Houghton JT, Jenkins GJ, Ephraums JJ. 1990. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
35. Houghton JT, Callander BA, Varney SK. 1992. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
36. Howard KWF, Lloyd, JW. 1979. The sensitivity of parameters in the Penman evaporation equations and direct recharge balance. Journal of Hydrology 41: 329-344.
37. Hughes L. 2003. Climate change and Australia: trends, projections and impacts. Austral Ecology 28: 423-443.
38. Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P, McDonald R, Hill S. 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich.
39. Hulme M, Lu X, Turnpenny J. 2002. Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom. The UKCIP02 scientific report. UKCIP02, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich.
40. Hulme P, Rushton, KR, Fletcher, S. 2001. Estimating recharge in UK catchments. In Impact of Human Activities on Groundwater Dynamics, Gehrels H, Peters NE, Hoehn E, Jensen K, Leibundgut C, Griffioen J, Webb B, Zaadnoordijk WJ (eds). IAHS Publication No. 269. IAHS Press: Wallingford; 33-42.
41. Institute of Geological Sciences. 1977. 1:625 000 hydrogeological map of England and Wales. Natural Environment Research Council.
42. IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios - Summary for Policymakers. A Special Report of Working Group III. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
43. IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
44. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat Switzerland.
45. Jackson D, Rushton KR. 1987. Assessment of recharge components for a chalk aquifer unit. Journal of Hydrology 92: 1-15.
46. Jones HK, Robins NS (eds). 1999. The Chalk Aquifer of the South Downs. Hydrogeological Report Series of the British Geological Survey. British Geological Survey: Keyworth, Nottingham.
47. Jones PD, Salmon M. 1995. Development and integration of a stochastic weather generator into a crop growth model for European agriculture. MARS project, final report to Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Agricultural Information Systems (ISPRA), UK.
48. Jones RJA, Bradley RI, Siddons PA. 1994. A land information system for environmental risk assessment. Mapping Awareness 8: 20-23.
49. Kashyap PS, Panda RK, 2001. Evaluation of evaporation estimation methods and development of crop in a sub-humid region. Agricultural Water Management 50: 9-25.
50. Kruger A, Ulbrich U, Speth P. 2001. Groundwater recharge in Northrhine-Westfatia predicted by a statistical model for greenhouse gas scenarios. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere 26: 853-861.
51. Lerner DN, Issar AS, Simmers I. 1990. Groundwater Recharge. A Guide to Understanding and Estimating Natural Recharge. International Contributions to Hydrogeology, vol. 8. Heise: Hannover.
52. Loáiciga HA. 2003. Climate change and ground water. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 93: 30-41.
53. MacDonald AM, Robins NS, Ball DF, Dochartaigh BEO. 2005. An overview of groundwater in Scotland. Scottish Journal of Geology 41: 3-11.
54. Makkink GF. 1957. Testing the Penman formula by means of lysimeters. Journal of the Institution of Water Engineers 11: 277-288.
55. Marsh TJ, Monkhouse RA, Arnell NW, Lees ML, Reynard NS. 1994. The 1988-92 Drought. Hydrological Data UK. Institute of Hydrology and British Geological Survey: Wallingford.
56. McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds). 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
57. Mearns LO. 1999. Comparative response of EPIC and CERES crop models to high and low resolution climate change scenarios. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 6623-6646.
58. Mearns LO, Katz RW, Schneider SH. 1984. Extreme high-temperature events:changes in their probabilities with changes in mean temperature. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23: 1601-1613.
59. Monteith JL. 1965. Evaporation and environment. Symposium of the Society for Experimental Biology 19: 205-233.
60. Murray FW. 1967. On the computation of saturation vapor pressure. Journal of Applied Meteorology 6: 203-204.
61. Oelschlagel B. 1995. A method for downscaling global climate model calculations by a statistical weather generator. Ecological Modelling 82: 199-204.
62. Osborn TJ, Hulme M, Jones PD, Basnett TA. 2000. Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation. International Journal of Climatology 20: 347-364.
63. Penman HL. 1948. Natural evaporation from open water, bare soil and grass. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series A: Mathematical and Physical Sciences 193: 120-145.
64. Penman HL. 1949. The dependence of transpiration on weather and soil condition. Journal of Soil Science 1: 74-89.
65. Penman HL. 1950. The water balance of the Stour catchment area. Journal of the Institution of Water Engineering 4: 457-469.
66. Priestley CHB. 1959. Turbulent Transfer in the Lower Atmosphere. University of Chicago Press: Chicago.
67. Priestley CHB, Taylor RJ. 1972. On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters. Monthly Weather Review 100: 81-92.
68. Ragab R, Finch JW, Harding RJ. 1997. Estimation of groundwater recharge to chalk and sandstone aquifers using simple soil models. Journal of Hydrology 190: 19-41.
69. Ranjan SP, Kazama S, Sawamoto M. 2006. Effects of climate and land use changes on groundwater resources in coastal aquifers. Journal of Environmental Management 80: 25-35.
70. Richardson CW. 1981. Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. Water Resources Research 17: 182-190.
71. Rushton KR, Ward C. 1979. The estimation of groundwater recharge. Journal of Hydrology 41: 345-361.
72. Scibek J, Allen DM. 2006. Comparing modelled responses of two high-permeability, unconfined aquifers to predicted climate change. Global and Planetary Change 50: 50-62.
73. Sherif MM, Singh, VP. 1999. Effect of climate change on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrological Processes 13: 1277-1287.
74. Silito OTN, Tellam J. 2000. Fingering in unsaturated zone flow: a qualitative review with laboratory experiments on heterogeneous systems. Ground Water 38: 864-871.
75. Stamm CH, Fluhler HJ, Leuenberger J, Wenderli H. 1998. Preferential transport of phosphorus in drained grassland soils. Journal of Environmental Quality 27: 515-522.
76. Stouffer RJ, Manabe S, Vinnikov KY. 1994. Model assessment of the role of natural variability in recent global warming. Nature 367: 634-636.
77. Thornthwaite CW. 1948. An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Review 38: 55-94.
78. Trenberth KE, Dai KE, Rasmussen RM, Parsons DB. 2003. The changing character of precipitation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1205-1217.
79. Watts M, Goodess CM, Jones PD. 2004a. The CRU daily weather generator. BETWIXT technical briefing note 1. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich.
80. Watts M, Goodess CM, Jones PD. 2004b. Validation of the CRU daily weather generator. BETWIXT technical briefing note 4. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich.
81. Wilby RL. 1998. Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation using daily airflow and seasonal teleconnection indices. Climate Research 10: 163-178.
82. Wilks DS. 1999. Interannual variability and extreme-value characteristics of several stochastic daily precipitation models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 93: 153-169.
83. Wilks DS, Wilby RL. 1999. The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models. Progress in Physical Geography 23: 329-357.
84. WMO. 2002. World Meteorological Organization Statement on the Status of Global Climate in 2002. World Meteorological Organization: Geneva.
85. Younger PL. 2001. Mine water pollution in Scotland: nature, extent and preventative strategies. The Science of the Total Environment 265: 309-326.
86. Yusoff I, Hiscock KM, Conway D. 2002. Simulation of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in eastern England. In Sustainable Groundwater Development, Hiscock KM, Rivett MO, Davison RM (eds). Geological Society Special Publication No. 193. The Geological Society Publishing House: Bath; 325-343.