Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic calculation of ecological soil screening levels

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry

Volumn 21, Issue 4, 2002, Pages 882-890

  Regan, Helen M ^a   Sample, Brad E ^b   Ferson, Scott ^a  

^a APPLIED BIOMATHEMATICS   (United States)

^b CH2M HILL   (United States)

Author keywords

Back calculation; Ecological soil screening levels; Probabilistic risk assessment; Soil contamination; Superfund sites

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CONSERVATION; FOOD ADDITIVES; IMPURITIES; MONTE CARLO METHODS; SOIL MECHANICS;

TERRESTRIAL WILDLIFE;

ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING;

CHLORPHENOTANE; LEAD;

RISK ASSESSMENT; SOIL POLLUTION;

ARTICLE; CALCULATION; CHEMICAL ANALYSIS; COMPARATIVE STUDY; ECOLOGY; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE; FOOD INTAKE; INSECTIVORE; MODEL; MONTE CARLO METHOD; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SCREENING; SOIL ANALYSIS; SOIL POLLUTION; WILDLIFE;

ANIMALS; ARVICOLINAE; DEET; ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE; FORECASTING; LEAD; MODELS, THEORETICAL; MONTE CARLO METHOD; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; SHREWS; SOIL POLLUTANTS;

ANIMALIA; BLARINA; BLARINA BREVICAUDA; MICROTUS; MICROTUS PENNSYLVANICUS; MURIDAE; SORICIDAE;

EID: 0346665897     PISSN: 07307268     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1897/1551-5028(2002)021<0882:CODAPC>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2000. Ecological soil screening level guidance. Draft. Office of Emergency and Remedial Response, Washington, DC.
2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1997. Ecological risk assessment guidance for Superfund: Process for designing and conducting ecological risk assessments. EPA 540/R-97/006. Interim Final. Emergency Response Team, Washington, DC.
3. Burmaster DE, Harris RH. 1993. The magnitude of compounding conservatisms in Superfund risk assessments. Risk Anal 15:215-219.
4. Ferson S. 1994. Naive Monte Carlo methods yield dangerous underestimates of tail probabilities. Proceedings, High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA, July 12-14, pp 507-514.
5. Ferson S. 1995. Quality assurance for Monte Carlo risk assessments. Proceedings, ISUMA/NAFIPS Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, Los Alamitos, CA, USA, September 17-20, pp 14-19.
6. Ferson S. 1996. What Monte Carlo methods cannot do. Human Ecol Risk Assess 2:990-1007.
7. Williamson RC, Downs T. 1990. Probabilistic arithmetic I: Numerical methods for calculating convolutions and dependency bounds. Int J Approximate Reasoning 4:89-158.
8. Dempster AP. 1967. Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping. Ann Math Stat 38:325-339.
9. Shafer G. 1976. A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, USA.
10. Walley P. 1991. Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities. Chapman & Hall, London, UK.
11. Nagy KA, Girard IA, Brown TK. 1999. Energetics of free-ranging mammals, reptiles and birds. Ann Rev Nutr 19:247-277.
12. Nagy KA. 1987. Field metabolic rate and food requirement scaling in mammals and birds. Ecol Monogr 57:111-128.
13. Innes DGL, Millar JS. 1981. Body weight, litter size, and energetics of reproduction in Clethrionomys gapperi and Microtus pennsylvanicus. Can J Zool 59:785-789.
14. Reich LM. 1981. Microtus pennsylvanicus. Mamm Species 159:1-8.
15. Silva M, Downing JA. 1995. CRC Handbook of Mammalian Body Masses. CRC, Boca Raton, FL, USA.
16. Barrett GW, Stueck KL. 1976. Caloric ingestion rate and assimilation efficiency of the short-tailed shrew, Blarina brevicauda. Ohio J Sci 76:25-26.
17. van Zyll de Jong CG. 1983. Handbook of Canadian Mammals. National Museum of Natural Sciences, National Museums of Canada, Ottawa, ON.
18. Merritt JF. 1986. Winter survival adaptations of the short-tailed shrew (Blarina brevicauda) in an Appalachian montane forest. J Mamm 67:450-464.
19. Beyer WN, Conner E, Gerould S. 1994. Estimates of soil ingestion by wildlife. J Wildl Manag 58:375-382.
20. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1993. Wildlife Exposures Handbook, Vol I. EPA/600/R-93/187a. Office of Research and Development, Washington, DC.
21. Randolph JC. 1973. Ecological energetics of a homeothermic predator, the short-tailed shrew. Ecology 54:1166-1187.
22. Bechtel Jacobs. 1998. Empirical models for the uptake of inorganic chemicals from soil by plants. BJC/OR-133. Final/Technical Report. Bechtel Jacobs, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
23. Travis CC, Arms AD. 1988. Bioconcentration of organics in beef, milk and vegetation. Environ Sci Technol 22:271-274.
24. MacKay D, Shiu WY, Ma KC. 1992. Illustrated Handbook of Physical- Chemical Properties and Environmental Fate for Organic Chemicals, Vol I - Monoaromatic Hydrocarbons, Chlorobenzenes, and PCBs. Lewis, Boca Raton, FL, USA, pp 585-586.
25. Sample BE, Beauchamp JJ, Efroymson RA, Suter GW II, Ashwood TL. 1998. Development and Validation of Bioaccumulation Models for Earthworms. ES/ER/TM-220. Oak Ridge National Laboratories, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
26. Connell DW, Markwell RD. 1990. Bioaccumulation in the soil to earthworm system. Chemosphere 20:91-100.
27. Decisioneering. 2000. Crystal Ball 2000, Standard Ver 5.0. Decisioneering, Denver, CO, USA.
28. Ferson S, Root WT, Kuhn R. 1999. RAMAS Risk Calc: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY, USA.
29. Burmaster DE, Thompson KM. 1995. Backcalculating cleanup targets in probabilistic risk assessments when the acceptability of cancer risk is defined under different risk management policies. Hum Ecol Risk Assess 1:101-120.
30. Bowers TS, Shifrin NS, Murphy BL. 1996. Statistical approach to meeting soil cleanup goals. Environ Sci Technol 30:1437-1444.
31. Ferson S, Long TE 1998. Deconvolution can reduce uncertainty in risk analyses. In Newman M, Strojan C, eds, Risk Assessment: Measurement and Logic. Ann Arbor Press, Chelsea, MI, USA, pp 325-336.