Selection and sanctioning in european parliamentary elections

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 41, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 477-498

  Hobolt, Sara B ^a   Hoøyland, Bjoørn ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH OSLO CICERO   (Norway)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 79959311962     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: 14692112     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123411000081     Document Type: Article

References (108)

1. Timothy Besley, 'Political Selection', Journal of Economic Perspectives in Politics, 19, no. 3 (2005), 43-60. (Pubitemid 41634737)
2. Gerald H. Kramer, 'Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964', American Political Science Review, 65 (1971), 131-43;
3. James D. Fearon, 'Electoral Accountability and Control of Politicians: Selecting Good Types versus Sanctioning Poor Performance'.
4. in Adam Przeworski, Susan C. Stokes and Bernard Manin, eds, Democracy, Accountability, and Representation (Cambridge: Cambridge (F'note continued) University Press, 1999), pp. 55-97;
5. Raymond M. Duch and Randolph Stevenson, The Economic Vote: How Political And Economic Institutions Condition Election Results (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008).
6. E.g., Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1983);
7. Peverill Squire, 'Candidates, Money, and Voters: Assessing the State of Congressional Election Research', Politics Research Quarterly, 48 (1995), 891-917;
8. Jamie Carson, Jeffery A. Jenkins, David W. Rohde and Mark A. Souva, 'The Impact of National Tides and District-Level Effects on Electoral Outcomes: The U.S. Congressional Elections of 1962-63', American Journal of Political Science, 45 (2001), 887-98.
9. Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt, 'Nine Second-Order National Elections - A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results', European Journal of Political Research, 8 (1980), 3-44;
10. Cees van der Eijk and Mark Franklin, Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of the Union (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996);
11. Michael Marsh, 'Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections', British Journal of Political Science, 28 (1998), 591-607; (Pubitemid 128384870)
12. Simon Hix and Michael Marsh, 'Punishment or Protest? Understanding European Parliament Elections', Journal of Politics, 69 (2007), 495-510;
13. Wouter van der Brug and Cees van der Eijk, European Elections and Domestic Politics: Lessons from the Past and Scenarios for the Future (Notre Dame, Ind.: University of Notre Dame Press, 2007).
14. Jeffrey Banks and Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 'Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard in a Repeated Elections Model', in W. A. Barnett, Melvin J. Hinich and Norman Schofield, eds, Political Economy: Institutions, Competition, and Representation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993).
15. V. O. Key, The Responsible Electorate (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1966);
16. Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981);
17. Bernard Manin, The Principles of Representative Government (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997);
18. G. Bingham Powell, Elections as Instruments of Democracy: Majoritarian and Proportional Visions (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2000).
19. Besley, 'Political Selection';
20. Fearon, 'Electoral Accountability and Control of Politicians';
21. Francisco Herreros, 'Screening before Sanctioning: Elections and the Republican Tradition', European Journal of Political Theory, 5 (2006), 415-35; (Pubitemid 44507647)
22. Duch and Stevenson, The Economic Vote.
23. Jane Mansbridge, 'Rethinking Representation', American Political Science Review, 97 (2003), 515-28, p. 521. (Pubitemid 37537547)
24. John Ferejohn, 'The Spatial Model and Elections', in B. Grofman, ed., Information, Participation and Choice. An Economic Theory of Democracy in Perspective (Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1993).
25. Fearon, 'Electoral Accountability and Control of Politicians: Selecting Good Types versus Sanctioning Poor Performance'.
26. Kenneth A. Shepsle and Mark S. Bonchek, Analyzing Politics: Rationality, Behavior and Institutions (London: W. W. Norton, 1997), p. 361.
27. Squire, 'Candidates, Money, and Voters'.
28. An exception to this is Duch and Stevenson, The Economic Vote.
29. This cross-national study of economic voting presents a selection rather than a sanctioning model to explain the economic vote. Key, The Responsible Electorate;
30. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections;
31. John Ferejohn, 'Incumbent Performance and Electoral Control', Public Choice, 50 (1986), 5-25;
32. Michael Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1988).
33. Timothy Besley and Stephen Coate, 'An Economic Model of Representative Democracy', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112 (1997), 85-114;
34. Besley, 'Political Selection';
35. Francesco Caselli and Massimo Morelli, 'Bad Politicians', Journal of Public Economics, 88 (2004), 759-82. (Pubitemid 37501337)
36. Timothy Besley, Rohini Pande and Vijayendra Rao, 'Selection and the Quality of Government: Evidence from South India' (Yale University Economic Growth Center, Discussion Paper 21, 2005), p. 2.
37. See Jacobson and Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections;
38. David Ian Lublin, 'Quality, Not Quantity: Strategic Politicians in U.S. Senate Elections, 1952-1990', Journal of Politics, 56 (1994), 228-41;
39. Squire, 'Candidates, Money, and Voters';
40. Carson et al., 'The Impact of National Tides and District-Level Effects on Electoral Outcomes';
41. Walter Stone, Sandy Mausel and Cherie D. Maestas, 'Counts: Extending the Strategic Politician Model of Incumbent Deterrence', American Journal of Political Science, 48 (2004), 478-95;
42. Adam M. Brown, 'Strategic Politicians in Gubernational Elections' (doctoral dissertation, University of California, San Diego, 2008).
43. Squire, 'Candidates, Money, and Voters', p. 893.
44. E.g., Jacobson and Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections;
45. Lublin, 'Quality, Not Quantity'.
46. E.g., Jonathan S. Krasno and Donald P. Green, 'Preempting Quality Challengers in House Elections', Journal of Politics 50 (1988), 920-36;
47. Brown, 'Strategic Politicians in Gubernational Elections'.
48. Stone, Mausel and Maestas, 'Counts: Extending the Strategic Politician Model of Incumbent Deterrence'.
49. Squire, 'Candidates, Money, and Voters'.
50. Van der Eijk and Franklin, Choosing Europe?;
51. Claes H. de Vreese, Susan Banducci and Holli A. Semetko, 'The News Coverage of the 2004 European Parliamentary Election Campaign in 25 Countries', European Union Politics 7 (2006), 477-504. (Pubitemid 44697522)
52. Marsh, 'Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections';
53. Karlheinz Reif, 'National Election Cycles and European Elections, 1979 and 1984', Electoral Studies, 3 (1984), 244-55;
54. Reif and Schmitt, 'Nine Second-Order National Elections';
55. Van der Eijk and Franklin, Choosing Europe?;
56. Cliff Carrubba and Richard J. Timpone, 'Explaining Vote Switching Across First- and Second-Order Elections: Evidence From Europe', Comparative Political Studies, 38 (2005), 260-81; (Pubitemid 40465753)
57. Van der Brug and van der Eijk, European Elections and Domestic Politics;
58. Hix and Marsh, 'Punishment or Protest?'
59. Angus Campbell, 'Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change', Public Opinion Quarterly, 24 (1960), 397-418.
60. Marsh, 'Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections';
61. Reif, 'National Election Cycles and European Elections, 1979 and 1984'.
62. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections;
63. Thaddeus Kousser, 'Retrospective Voting and Strategic Behaviour in European Parliament Elections', Electoral Studies, 23 (2004), 1-21; (Pubitemid 38062687)
64. Edward Tufte, 'Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 812-26.
65. Andreas Føllesdal and Simon Hix, 'Why There is a Democratic Deficit in the EU: A Response to Majone and Moravcsik', Journal of Common Market Studies, 44 (2006), 533-62. (Pubitemid 44244881)
66. De Vreese, Banducci and Semetko, 'The News Coverage of the 2004 European Parliamentary Election Campaign in 25 Countries';
67. Van der Brug and van der Eijk, European Elections and Domestic Politics.
68. Reif, 'National Election Cycles and European Elections, 1979 and 1984';
69. Van der Eijk and Franklin, Choosing Europe?;
70. Hix and Marsh, 'Punishment or Protest?';
71. Federico Ferrara and J. Timo Weishaupt, 'Get Your Act Together: Party Performance in European Parliament Elections', European Union Politics, 5 (2004), 283-306; (Pubitemid 43298405)
72. Marsh, 'Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections';
73. Kousser, 'Retrospective Voting and Strategic Behaviour in European Parliament Elections'.
74. Susan E. Scarrow, 'Political Career Paths and the European Parliament', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 22 (1997), 253-63. (Pubitemid 127459089)
75. Pippa Norris and Mark Franklin, 'Social Representation', European Journal of Political Research, 32 (1997), 153-64.
76. Scarrow, 'Political Career Paths and the European Parliament'.
77. Reif and Schmitt, 'Nine Second-Order National Elections';
78. Van der Eijk and Franklin, Choosing Europe?;
79. Marsh, 'Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections';
80. Hix and Marsh, 'Punishment or Protest?';
81. Van der Brug and van der Eijk, European Elections and Domestic Politics;
82. Sara B. Hobolt, Jae-Jae Spoon and James Tilley, 'A Vote Against Europe? Explaining Defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Elections', British Journal of Political Science, 39 (2009), 93-115.
83. David M. Farrell and Roger M. Scully, Representing Europe's Citizens? Electoral Institutions and the Failure of Parliamentary Representation (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007).
84. There may still be a bias in our analyses due to the fact that we only have data on successful candidates. The magnitude of this bias is, however, unlikely to be very large when using this operationalization of experience, since the most experienced candidate of a party will almost always be among the successful candidates. Moreover, as a robustness check, Model 3 in Appendix Table A1 shows a re-estimation of our main results with mean rather than maximum level of experience as the key explanatory variable. See Arthur Lupia and Mathew D. McCubbins, The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Need to Know? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
85. Fearon, 'Electoral Accountability and Control of Politicians'.
86. R. Morgan, Times Guide to the European Parliament 1994 (London: Times Books, 1994);
87. A. Wood, Times Guide to the European Parliament 1979 (London: Times Books, 1979);
88. A. Wood, Times Guide to the European Parliament 1984 (London: Times Books, 1984);
89. A. Wood, Times Guide to the European Parliament 1989 (London: Times Books, 1989).
90. E.g., Mansbridge, 'Rethinking Representation'.
91. Squire, 'Candidates, Money, and Voters', pp. 893-4.
92. fifteen in 1999 and twenty-five in 2004. The curious reader might like to know that there is no significant relationship between the difference in the turnout in national and EP elections and the experience of the top candidates. E.g., Hix and Marsh, 'Punishment or Protest?' We thank one of the Journal's reviewers for pointing this out. We do not estimate the squared and cubed effects of Vote share as initial investigations showed effects of an implausible magnitude under this specification. The substantive results of the key variables of interest for our investigation remained the same.
93. Marsh, 'Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections';
94. Reif, 'National Election Cycles and European Elections, 1979 and 1984'.
95. Hix and Marsh, 'Punishment or Protest?'
96. Van der Eijk and Franklin, Choosing Europe?
97. Carrubba and Timpone, 'Explaining Vote Switching Across First- and Second-Order Elections';
98. Hix and Marsh, 'Punishment or Protest?'
99. Hobolt, Spoon and Tilley, 'A Vote Against Europe?'
100. Hix and Marsh, 'Punishment or Protest?'
101. Farrell and Scully, Representing Europe's Citizens?
102. David Farrell, Simon Hix, Mark Johnson and Roger Scully, 'EPRG 2000 and 2006 MEP Surveys Dataset' (available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/EPRG/, 2006);
103. Farrell and Scully, Representing Europe's Citizens?
104. Farrell and Scully, Representing Europe's Citizens?
105. Farrell and Scully, Representing Europe's Citizens?, p. 77.
106. Farrell and Scully, Representing Europe's Citizens?, p. 77.
107. Simon Hix, Abdul Noury and Gerard Roland, Democracy in the European Parliament (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
108. Van der Eijk and Franklin, Choosing Europe? The Bonferroni outlier test revealed four outliers in the fixed effects model. We removed these observations and reran the analysis. We also reran Models 4 and 5 with a party mean level of political expertise. The substantive results still hold.