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Volumn 20, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 73-104

Proliferation implications of civil nuclear cooperation: Theory and a case study of Tito's Yugoslavia

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EID: 79952805435     PISSN: 09636412     EISSN: 15561852     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2011.549013     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (11)

References (152)
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    • For a similar verdict, see also Leonard Weiss, "Atoms for Peace," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 6 (November/December 2003): 34.
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    • Joseph Cirincione quoted in Laura Myers, "Nuke Rivalry Fuels Pakistan, India," Associated Press report reprinted in Nautilus Institute Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network Daily Report, May 28, 1998, at http://www.nautilus.org/archives/pub/ftp/napsnet/daily reports/1998/05-98-May/MAY28.txt.
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    • Alisa Carrigan, "A Peripheral Threat? Addressing Dissemination of Human Capital in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime" (paper presented at the International Studies Association annual meeting, March 2005), at http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p mla apa research citation/0/6/9/8/5/pages69859/p69859-1.php.
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    • Joseph F. Pilat, ed., with foreword by Mohammed ElBaradei, Atoms for Peace: A Future After Fifty Years? (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2007).
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    • For a broadly parallel view see Peter R. Lavoy, "The Enduring Effects of Atoms for Peace," Arms Control Today (December 2003), at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003 12/Lavoy.
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    • Philipp C. Bleek, "Why Do States Proliferate? Quantitative Analysis of the Exploration, Pursuit, and Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons," in Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century, Vol. 1: The Role of Theory, eds., William C. Potter and Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2010), 173 and 272-73, n49.
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    • Alexander Montgomery gets a similar result and is more receptive to it. See Alexander Montgomery, "Stop Helping Me: Why Nuclear Assistance Impedes Nuclear Programs," unpublished manuscript, Reed College, Portland, OR, February 2010. I discuss Montgomery's work more fully in the next section of the article.
    • (2010) Stop Helping Me: Why Nuclear Assistance Impedes Nuclear Programs
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    • Nuclear historians have demonstrated much better intuitions. See, for example, John Lewis and Xue Litai, China Builds the Bomb (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1991), esp. 232-36.
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    • Jim Walsh, "Learning from Past Success: The NPT and the Future of Non-Proliferation" (paper prepared for the Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, Stockholm, Sweden, October 2005);
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    • A more nuanced but as-yet undeveloped bureaucratic politics hypothesis is broached in Steven E. Miller and Scott D. Sagan, "Alternative Nuclear Futures," Daedalus 139, no. 1 (Winter 2010): 132-33.
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    • Alexander Montgomery, "Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb Network," International Security 30, no. 2 (Fall 2005): 153-87;
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    • Montgomery, "Ringing in Proliferation," 175-79. Kroenig accepts Montgomery's point about the importance of tacit knowledge but retorts that this is yet another reason to fear sensitive nuclear assistance.
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    • Here I am thinking primarily of the effects of Western states' Atoms for Peace programs. It would be interesting to explore the hypothesis that the Atoms for Peace program of the totalitarian Soviet Union generated less brain drain.
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    • and Jacques Gaillard, "Measuring Research and Development in Developing Countries: Main Characteristics and Implications for the Frascati Manual," Science, Technology and Society 15, no. 1 (March 2010): 77-111.
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    • Hirschman himself elaborates on the linkage between his theory and the brain drain literature in his "Exit, Voice, and the Fate of the German Democratic Republic," World Politics 45, no. 2 (January 1993): 173-202.
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    • Since Hirschman's original formulation an enormous literature has grown up around it: for a critical review, see Keith Dowding et al., "Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Analytic and Empirical Developments," European Journal of Political Research 37, no. 4 (June 2000): 469-95.
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    • The tendency to distrust even loyal agents has been amply explored in rational choice signaling models of delegation. See J. Bendor, A. Glazer, and T. Hammond, "Theories of Delegation," Annual Review of Political Science 4 (2001): 249-51.
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    • Admittedly a scientist's "exit" should not be seen as absolutely definitive. The most spectacular example of "exit" followed by dangerous "return" in the realm of proliferation is the career path of the Pakistani metallurgist Abdul Qadeer Khan. To say that Khan's activities encouraged proliferation is an understatement, but at the same time it is clear that if his Dutch employers had simply followed the rudimentary security precautions they already had on the books circa 1975, his career as a nuclear spy would have ended almost as soon as it began. See David Albright, Peddling Peril: How The Secret Nuclear Trade Arms America's Enemies (New York: Free Press, 2010), esp. 16-24.
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    • In principle, a quantitative social network analysis of the international ties of nuclear program scientists and engineers might provide a more systematic test than the qualitative approach employed here, but the data requirements for such a study would be prodigious.
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    • Standard English spellings of Yugoslav names have varied over the years. In this article I generally try to follow today's norms, but I do not "update" the spellings used in documents or publications or those adopted by Yugoslav emigrants to the United States or other countries.
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    • Document also cited in Francis J. Gavin, "Same As It Ever Was: Nuclear Alarmism, Proliferation, and the Cold War," International Security 34, no. 3 (Winter 2009/10): 17.
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    • Harald Müller and Andreas Schmidt, "The Little Known Story of De-Proliferation: Why States Give Up Nuclear Weapon Activities," in Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century, 157;
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    • Dong-Joon Jo and Erik Gartzke, "Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation," Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 1 (February 2007): 189 n17, data and codebook at http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/;
    • (2007) Journal of Conflict Resolution , vol.51 , Issue.1 , pp. 189
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    • and Sonali Singh and Christopher R. Way, "The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation: A Quantitative Test," Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 6 (December 2004): 872 n21, at http://falcon.arts.cornell.edu/crw12/.
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    • Alexander H. Montgomery and Scott D. Sagan, "The Perils of Predicting Proliferation," Journal of Conflict Resolution 53, no. 2 (April 2009): 302-28.
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    • Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, "Nuclear Weapons in the Balkans: Why Yugoslavia Tried and Serbia Will Not," in Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century, vol. 2: A Comparative Perspective, eds., Potter and Mukhatzhanova (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2010), esp. 206-9.
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    • Glenn T. Seaborg, "Discovery of Fission and the Transuranium Elements," in Collection of Papers Devoted to Pavle Savić on the Occasion of his Seventieth Birthday, ed. Academician Milutin Garasanin (Belgrade: Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, 1980), 40.
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    • Walen had Communist leanings, and his wife was Serbian. See "Archives Frédéric Curie," Folder F154, docs. 272 and 273, in Archives Historiques du Musée Curie, Paris, France.
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    • Gunnar Randers, Lysår (Oslo: Gyldendal, 1975), 180-83.
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    • Eisenhower explicitly made this point in his December 1953 "Atoms for Peace" speech at the UN, at http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Deterrence/Atomsforpeace.shtml.
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    • John. A. Hall and Louis H. Roddis, U.S. Army Environmental Command (USAEC), memorandum for the Department of State, "Yugoslavia Atomic Energy Program," June 17, 1957, document provided by William Potter.
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    • A. A. Wells (USAEC), memorandum for Philip J. Farley, Department of State, "Equipment Grant for Yugoslavia," 27 June 1960. Document provided by William Potter.
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    • Interview with Bjørn Gaudernack, Norwegian nuclear engineer who personally instructed the Yugoslavs in fuel reprocessing techniques, Oslo, October 2008.
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    • This is not to ignore the ongoing construction at that time of the turnkey nuclear power plant at Krško, on the Croatia-Slovenia border. This was a major, and ultimately successful, joint undertaking by the republics of Croatia and Slovenia, exercising their greater autonomy under the new constitution. Indeed for this very reason Krško should be seen not as an advance for the "Yugoslav" nuclear program, but rather as a sign of its lack of progress and indeed regional splintering.
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    • Drasko Jovanovic, son of Dragoljub Jovanović, email communication, 10 April 2009.
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    • Though this was not the main reason, which had to do with financing issues. Letter from Victor F. Weisskopf, CERN Director, to Jean Willems, President of the CERN Council, 11 December 1961, CERN/7464, DG-F02, CERN Library and Archives, Geneva, Switzerland.
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    • Interview with Jovan Jovanovich, Toronto, Canada, 7 September 2009.
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    • Schierup, Migration, Socialism, and the International Division of Labour, 264.
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    • Nakićenović, Nuclear Energy in Yugoslavia, 123. Nakićenović notes that another 152 left for specialized training in the year 1960.
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    • note
    • Email communication with Črtomir Zupančič, 14 October 2009. Zupančič himself returned despite having international job opportunities. But he left the nuclear program in 1959, not long after mounting a protest against work conditions in the Jožef Stefan Institute. He left the country permanently in 1966.
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    • Telephone interview with Dragoslav Popović, 25 January 2009.
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    • Potter et al., "Tito's Nuclear Legacy," Nuclear Threat Initiative website, at http://www.nti.org/ e research/profiles/Yugoslavia/Nuclear/chronology.html.
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    • "Yugoslav Scientist in Charge of IAEA's Safeguards Division," IAEA Press Release PR 61/13, 15 March 1961, accessed at IAEA Archives, Vienna, Austria.
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    • "IAEA Appoints First Inspector General," IAEA Press Release PR 64/37, 3 August 1964, accessed at IAEA Archives, Vienna, Austria.
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    • Interview with Popović, 22 January 2009.
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* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.