Nuclear proliferation over the next decade: Causes, warning signs, and policy responses

Nonproliferation Review

Volumn 13, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 433-454

  Lavoy, Peter R ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

Dissuasion; Intelligence; Nuclear proliferation; Nuclear weapons; U.S. nonproliferation policy

Indexed keywords

EID: 67749130201     PISSN: 10736700     EISSN: 17461766     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10736700601071363     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Donald P. Steury,“How the CIA Missed Stalin’s Bomb” Studies in Intelligence 49 (2005), www.cia.gov/csi/studies/vol49no1/html_files/stalins_bomb_3.html.
2. Charles A. Ziegler, Intelligence Assessments of Soviet Atomic Capability, 1945-1949.
3. Charles A. Ziegler, Myths, Monopolies, and Maskirovka Intelligence and National Security 12 (Dec 1997).
4. Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (New York: Random House, 1979), pp. 128, 168.
5. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 2001), pp. 156-157.
6. Jacques Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identify, Emotions, and Foreign Policy (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
7. Paul Bracken, Fire in the East: the Rise of Asian Military Power and the Second Nuclear Age (New York: HarperCollins, 1999).
8. Paul Bracken,“The Structure of the Second Nuclear Age” Nov. 5, 2003, MIT Security Studies Program website, .
9. Peter R. Lavoy,“Pakistan’s Strategic Culture: A Theoretical Excursion” Strategic Insights 4 (Oct. 2005), .
10. J. David Singer,“The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations” World Politics 14 (Oct. 1961), pp. 77-92.
11. William B. Moul,“The Level of Analysis Problem Revisited” Canadian Journal of Political Science 6 (Sept. 1973), pp. 494-513.
12. Peter R. Lavoy,“Nuclear Myths and the Causes of Nuclear Proliferation” Security Studies 2 (Spring/Summer 1993), pp. 192-212.
13. Peter R. Lavoy, Learning to Live with the Bomb: India, the United States, and the Myths of Nuclear Security (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, forthcoming 2007).
14. Scott D. Sagan,“Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb” International Security 21 (Winter 1996/97), pp. 73-85.
15. Stanley Wolpert, Zulfi Bhutto of Pakistan (Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press, 1993).
16. Stephen Burgess,“South Africa’s Nuclear Weapons Policies” in this issue.
17. Wyn Q. Bowen, Libya and Nuclear Proliferation: Stepping Back from the Brink, Adelphi Paper 380 (London: Routledge for International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2006).
18. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Awakening the People (Rawalpindi: Pakistan Publications, 1970), p.21.
19. Peter R. Lavoy,“Pakistan’s Nuclear Doctrine” in Rafiq Dossani and Henry S. Rowen, eds., Prospects for Peace in South Asia (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2005).
20. Michael Slackman and Mona El-Naggar,“Mubarak’s Son Proposes Nuclear Program” New York Times, Sept. 20 2006, p. A14.
21. Bhabha B“We can now manufacture atomic weapons if we mean to.’ Hindustan Times (New Delhi), Dec 16, 1959.
22. Nehru J“India Could Have Bomb by 1963” Manchester Guardian, Oct 23, 1961.
23. Thomas F. Brady,“Pressure Grows for India A-Bomb” New York Times, Oct. 27, 1964.
24. Peter R. Lavoy, Learning to Live with the Bomb.
25. Gordon Corera, Shopping For Bombs: Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and Fall of A.Q. Khan’s Nuclear Network (New York: Oxford University Press, 2006).
26. Lorne J. Kavic, India’s Quest for Security: Defence Policies, 1947-1965 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1967).
27. Central Intelligence Agency,“Indian Test Will Spur Pakistani Effort” National Intelligence Daily, May 24, 1974.
28. Iraq Survey Group, Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraqi WMD, vol. 1,“Regime Strategic Intent” Sept 30, 2004, esp. p. 46, www.foia.cia.gov/duelfer/Iraqs_WMD_Vol1.pdf.
29. Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, Report to the President of the United States, March 31, 2005, p. 156, www.wmd.gov/about.html.
30. Scott D. Sagan“How to Keep the Bomb from Iran” Foreign Affairs 85 (Sept/Oct. 2006).
31. Institute for Science and International Security,“Case Studies of Illicit Procurement Networks: Education and Training” 2003.
32. Iraq Survey Group, Comprehensive Report, Vol. 1,“Regime Finance and Procurement” Sept 30, 2004, esp. pp. 3-5, www.foia.cia.gov/duelfer/Iraqs_WMD_Vol1.pdf.
33. Iraq Survey Group, Comprehensive Report, Vol. 1,“Regime Finance and Procurement” Sept 30, 2004, esp. pp. 116-132, www.foia.cia.gov/duelfer/Iraqs_WMD_Vol1.pdf.
34. Iraq Survey Group, Comprehensive Report, Vol. 1,“Regime Finance and Procurement” Sept 30, 2004, esp. pp. 77-82, www.foia.cia.gov/duelfer/Iraqs_WMD_Vol1.pdf.
35. Ariel Levite,“Never Say Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited” International Security 27 (Winter 2002-2003), p. 66.
36. Jungmin Kang, Peter Hayes, Li Bin, Tatsujiro Suzuki, and Richard Tanter,“South Korea’s Nuclear Surprise” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 61 (Jan/Feb. 2005), pp. 40-49.
37. Chuck Lutes,“The Role of Dissuasion in Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction” Strategic Insights 3 (Oct.2004), .
38. Peter R. Lavoy, Barry Zellen, and Christopher Clary,“Dissuasion in U.S. Defense Strategy” Strategic Insights 3 (Oct. 2004), .
39. Peter R. Lavoy and Gayle D. Meyers,“U.S. Counterproliferation Cooperation with Allies” in Jim A. Davis and Barry R. Schneider, eds., Avoiding the Abyss: Progress, Shortfalls, and the Way Ahead in Combating the WMD Threat (Montgomery, ALA: USAF Counterproliferation Center, 2005), pp. 315-346.
40. Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Features (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2003).
41. Lewis A. Dunn, Peter R. Lavoy, andScott D. Sagan,“Conclusions: Planning theUnthinkable” in Peter R. Lavoy, Scott D. Sagan, and James J. Wirtz, eds., Planning theUnthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2000), pp. 223-57.
42. Peter R. Lavoy,“The Costs of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia” in D.R. SarDesai and Raju G.C. Thomas, eds., Nuclear India in the Twenty-First Century (New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2002).
43. Kevin O’Neill,“Building the Bomb” in Stephen I. Schwartz, ed., Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Since 1940 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 1998), pp. 32-103.
44. UNDP, Human Development Report 1999 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999), pp.134-137.
45. Lt. Gen. R.K. Jasbir Singh,“The Costs of Nuclear Weaponisation” in R.K. Jasbir Singh, ed Indian Defence Yearbook: 1999 (Dehra Dun: Natraj, 1999), pp. 135-36.