A stochastic, evolutionary model for range shifts and richness on tropical elevational gradients under Quaternary glacial cycles

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 365, Issue 1558, 2010, Pages 3695-3707

  Colwell, Robert K ^a,b   Rangel, Thiago F ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^c FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF GOIÁS   (Brazil)

Author keywords

Biogeography; Extinction; Mid domain effect; Simulation; Speciation; Stochastic model

Indexed keywords

BIOGEOGRAPHY; ELEVATION; EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY; GLACIAL-INTERGLACIAL CYCLE; PHYLOGENY; QUATERNARY; RANGE EXPANSION; SPECIES RICHNESS; STOCHASTICITY; SURVIVAL;

COSTA RICA;

EID: 78650366363     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0293     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Ahrens, C. D. 2006 Meteorology today, 8th edn. Brooks/Cole Publishing.
2. Alley, R. B. et al. 2003 Abrupt climate change. Science 299, 2005. (doi:10.1126/science.1081056) (Pubitemid 36383717)
3. Arita, H. & Vazquez-Dominguez, E. 2008 The tropics: cradle, museum or casino? A dynamic null model for latitudinal gradients of species diversity. Ecol. Lett. 11, 653-663. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01197.x) (Pubitemid 351782865)
4. Ashcroft, M. 2010 Identifying refugia from climate change. J. Biogeogr. 37, 1407-1413. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02300.x)
5. Blois, J. L., McGuire, J. L. & Hadly, E. A. 2010 Small mammal diversity loss in response to late-Pleistocene climatic change. Nature 465, 771-774. (doi:10.1038/nature09077)
6. Bokma, F., Bokma, J. & Mönkkönen, M. 2001 Random processes and geographic species richness patterns: why so few species in the north. Ecography 24, 43-49. (doi:10.1034/j.1600-0587.2001.240106.x)
7. Brehm, G., Colwell, R. K. & Kluge, J. 2007 The role of environment and mid-domain effect on moth species richness along a tropical elevational gradient. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 205-219.
8. Bush, M. B. & Flenley, J. R. 2007 Tropical rainforest responses to climatic change. Berlin, Germany: Springer.
9. Bush, M. B. & Silman, M. R. 2004 Observations on Late Pleistocene cooling and precipitation in the lowland Neotropics. J. Quaternary Sci. 19, 677-684. (doi:10.1002/jqs.883)
10. Bush, M. B., Silman, M. R. & Urrego, D. H. 2004 48 000 years of climate and forest change in a biodiversity hot spot. Science 303, 827-829. (doi:10.1126/science.1090795) (Pubitemid 38174658)
11. Cardelús, C. L., Colwell, R. K. & Watkins, J. E. 2006 Vascular epiphyte distribution patterns: explaining the mid-elevation richness peak. J. Ecol. 94, 144-156. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2005.01052.x)
12. Chen, I.-C., Shiu, H.-J., Benedick, S., Holloway, J. D., Chey, V. K., Barlow, H. S., Hill, J. K. & Thomas, C. D. 2009 Elevation increases in moth assemblages over 42 years on a tropical mountain. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 1479-1483. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0809320106)
13. Clark, D. A., Piper, S. C., Keeling, C. D. & Clark, D. B. 2003 Tropical rain forest tree growth and atmospheric carbon dynamics linked to interannual temperature variation during 1984-2000. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 5852-5857. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0935903100) (Pubitemid 36581859)
14. Colinvaux, P., De Oliveira, P., Moreno, J., Miller, M. & Bush, M. 1996 A long pollen record from lowland Amazonia: forest and cooling in glacial times. Science 274, 85. (doi:10.1126/science.274.5284.85) (Pubitemid 26332728)
15. Colwell, R. K. & Hurtt, G. C. 1994 Nonbiological gradients in species richness and a spurious Rapoport effect. Am. Nat. 144, 570-595.
16. Colwell, R. K. & Lees, D. C. 2000 The mid-domain effect: geometric constraints on the geography of species richness. Trends Ecol. Evol. 15, 70-76. (doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(99)01767-X) (Pubitemid 30349806)
17. Colwell, R. K. & Rangel, T. F. 2009 Hutchinson's duality: the once and future niche. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 19 651-19 658. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0901650106)
18. Colwell, R. K., Brehm, G., Cardelús, C., Gilman, A. C. & Longino, J. T. 2008 Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science 322, 258-261. (doi:10.1126/science. 1162547)
19. Connolly, S. R. 2009 Macroecological theory and the analysis of species richness gradients. In Marine macroecology (eds J. D. Witman & K. Roy), pp. 279-309. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
20. Davies, T. J., Grenyer, R. & Gittleman, J. L. 2005 Phylogeny can make the mid-domain effect an inappropriate null model. Biol. Lett. 1, 143-146. (doi:10.1098/rsbl.2005.0297) (Pubitemid 41379040)
21. Davis, M. B. & Shaw, R. G. 2001 Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science 292, 673. (doi:10.1126/science.292.5517. 673) (Pubitemid 32385531)
22. Davis,M. B., Shaw, R. G. & Etterson, J. R. 2005 Evolutionary responses to changing climate. Ecology 86, 1704-1714. (doi:10.1890/03-0788)
23. Deutsch, C. A., Tewksbury, J. J., Huey, R. B., Sheldon, K. S., Ghalambor, C. K., Haak, D. C. & Martin, P. R. 2008 Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 6668-6672. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0709472105) (Pubitemid 351754564)
24. Dick, C. W. & Heuertz, M. 2008 The complex biogeographic history of a widespread tropical tree species. Evolution 62, 2760-2774. (doi:10.1111/j.1558- 5646.2008.00506.x)
25. Feeley, K. J. & Silman, M. R. 2010 Biotic attrition from the hot tropics correcting for truncated temperature niches. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1830-1836. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02085.x)
26. Feeley, K. J., Joseph Wright, S., Nur Supardi, M. N., Kassim, A. R. & Davies, S. J. 2007 Decelerating growth in tropical forest trees. Ecol. Lett. 10, 461-469. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01033.x) (Pubitemid 46722534)
27. Fjeldså, J. & Rahbek, C. 2006 Diversification of tanagers, a species rich bird group, from lowlands to montane regions in South America. Integr. Comp. Zool. 46, 72-78. (doi:10.1093/icb/icj009)
28. Flenley, J. R. 1998 Tropical forests under the climates of the last 30 000 years. Clim. Change 39, 177-197. (doi:10.1023/A:1005367822750)
29. Garzione, C. N., Hoke, G. D., Libarkin, J. C., Withers, S., MacFadden, B., Eiler, J., Ghosh, P. & Mulch, A. 2008 Rise of the Andes. Science 320, 1304. (doi:10.1126/science.1148615) (Pubitemid 351929459)
30. Gilman, A. 2007 Tropical plant diversity and species altitudinal range across an elevational gradient in Costa Rica. Los Angeles, CA: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, UCLA.
31. Gotelli, N. et al. 2009 Patterns and causes of species richness: a general simulation model for macroecology. Ecol. Lett. 12, 873-886. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01353.x)
32. Grimm, V. et al. 2005 Pattern-oriented modeling of agentbased complex systems: lessons from ecology. Science 310, 987. (doi:10.1126/science.1116681) (Pubitemid 41611904)
33. Hansen, J., Sato, M., Ruedy, R., Lo, K., Lea, D. W. & Medina-Elizade, M. 2006 Global temperature change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 14 288-14 293. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0606291103) (Pubitemid 44484742)
34. Hickling, R., Roy, D. B., Hill, J. K., Fox, R. & Thomas, C. D. 2006 The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 450-455. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01116.x)
35. Hooghiemstra, H. & Van der Hammen, T. 2004 Quaternary Ice-Age dynamics in the Colombian Andes: developing an understanding of our legacy. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 359, 173. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2003.1420) (Pubitemid 38231470)
36. Jablonski, D., Roy, K. & Valentine, J. W. 2006 Out of the tropics: evolutionary dynamics of the latitudinal diversity gradient. Science 314, 102. (doi:10.1126/science.1130880) (Pubitemid 44547749)
37. Jansson, R. & Dynesius, M. 2002 The fate of clades in a world of recurrent climate change: Milankovitch oscillations and evolution. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 33, 741-777. (doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.33.010802.150520) (Pubitemid 36035156)
38. Jouzel, J. et al. 2007 Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800,000 years. Science 317, 793-797. (doi:10.1126/science.1141038) (Pubitemid 47263433)
39. Kay, K. M., Reeves, P. A., Olmstead, R. G. & Schemske, D. W. 2005 Rapid speciation and the evolution of hummingbird pollination in Neotropical Costus subgenus Costus (Costaceae): evidence from nrDNA ITS and ETS sequences. Am. J. Bot. 92, 1899. (doi:10.3732/ajb.92.11.1899)
40. Kirkpatrick, M. & Barton, N. H. 1997 Evolution of a species' range. Am. Nat. 150, 1-23.
41. Kozak, K. & Wiens, J. 2010 Niche conservatism drives elevational diversity patterns in Appalachian salamanders. Am. Nat. 176.
42. Liu, Z., Cleaveland, L. & Herbert, T. 2008 Early onset and origin of 100-kyr cycles in Pleistocene tropical SST records. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 265, 703-715. (doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.11.016)
43. Longino, J., Coddington, J. A. & Colwell, R. K. 2002 The ant fauna of a tropical rainforest: estimating species richness three different ways. Ecology 83, 689-702. (doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[0689:TAFOAT]2.0.CO;2)
44. Losos, J. 2008 Phylogenetic niche conservatism, phylogenetic signal and the relationship between phylogenetic relatedness and ecological similarity among species. Ecol. Lett. 11, 995-1003. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01229.x)
45. MacFadden, B. J., Cerling, T. E., Harris, J. M. & Prado, J. 1999 Ancient latitudinal gradients of C3/C4 grasses interpreted from stable isotopes of New World Pleistocene horse (Equus) teeth. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 8, 137-149.
46. Marchant, R., Boom, A. & Hooghiemstra, H. 2002 Pollenbased biome reconstructions for the past 450 000 yr from the Funza-2 core, Colombia: comparisons with model-based vegetation reconstructions. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 177, 29-45. (doi:10.1016/S0031-0182(01)00350-9) (Pubitemid 34170102)
47. Marchant, R. et al. 2009 Pollen-based biome reconstructions for Latin America at 0, 6000 and 18 000 radiocarbon years ago. Clim. Past 5, 725-767. (doi:10.5194/cp-5-725-2009)
48. Martinez-Meyer, E., Peterson, A. T. & Hargrove, W. W. 2004 Ecological niches as stable distributional constraints on mammal species, with implications for Pleistocene extinctions and climate change projections for biodiversity. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 13, 305-314. (doi:10.1111/j.1466-822X.2004. 00107.x) (Pubitemid 38933538)
49. Moritz, C., Patton, J., Conroy, C., Parra, J., White, G. & Beissinger, S. 2008 Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA. Science 322, 261. (doi:10.1126/science.1163428)
50. Purvis, A., Gittleman, J. L., Cowlishaw, G. & Mace, G. M. 2000 Predicting extinction risk in declining species. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 267, 1947. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2000.1234)
51. Rahbek, C. 2005 The role of spatial scale in the perception of large-scale species-richness patterns. Ecol. Lett. 8, 224-239. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00701.x) (Pubitemid 40218109)
52. Rangel, T. F. L. V. B. & Diniz-Filho, J. A. F. 2005 An evolutionary tolerance model explaining spatial patterns in species richness under environmental gradients and geometric constraints. Ecography 28, 253-263. (doi:10.1111/j.0906-7590.2005.04038.x)
53. Rangel, T. F. L. V. B., Diniz-Filho, J. A. F. & Colwell, R. K. 2007 Species richness and evolutionary niche dynamics: a spatial pattern-oriented simulation experiment. Am. Nat. 170, 602-616. (doi:10.1086/521315) (Pubitemid 47580424)
54. Rangel, T. F., Diniz-Filho, J. A. F. & Bini, L. M. 2010 SAM: a comprehensive application for spatial analysis in macroecology. Ecography 33, 46-50. (doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.06299.x)
55. Richardson, J. E., Pennington, R. T., Pennington, T. D. & Hollingsworth, P. M. 2001 Rapid diversification of a species-rich genus of Neotropical rain forest trees. Science 293, 2242. (doi:10.1126/science.1061421) (Pubitemid 32900231)
56. Rutherford, S. & D'Hondt, S. 2000 Early onset and tropical forcing of 100 000-year Pleistocene glacial cycles. Nature 408, 72-75. (doi:10.1038/35040533)
57. Schluter, D. & Rambaut, A. 1996 Ecological speciation in postglacial fishes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 351, 807-814. (doi:10.1098/rstb.1996.0075)
58. Sinervo, B. et al. 2010 Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science 328, 894. (doi:10.1126/science.1184695)
59. Smith, F. A., Betancourt, J. L. & Brown, J. H. 1995 Evolution of body size in the woodrat over the past 25 000 years of climate change. Science 270, 2012-2014. (doi:10.1126/science.270.5244.2012)
60. Sokal, R. & Rohlf, F. 1995 Biometry: the principles and practice of statistics in biological research. New York, NY: WH Freeman.
61. Voelker, G. 2010 Repeated vicariance of Eurasian songbird lineages since the Late Miocene. J. Biogeogr. 31, 1251-1261. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010. 02313.x)
62. Warwick, R. M. & Clarke, K. R. 1998 Taxonomic distinctness and environmental assessment. J. Appl. Ecol. 35, 532-543. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2664. 1998.3540532.x)
63. Wille, M., Hooghiemstra, H., Behling, H., van der Borg, K. & Negret, A. J. 2001 Environmental change in the Colombian subandean forest belt from 8 pollen records: the last 50 kyr. Veg. Hist. Archaeobot. 10, 61-77. (doi:10.1007/PL00006921) (Pubitemid 33570251)
64. Williams, J. W., Jackson, S. T. & Kutzbach, J. E. 2007 Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 5738-5742. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0606292104) (Pubitemid 47175604)