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Volumn 33, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 307-329

Targeted killings in Afghanistan: Measuring coercion and deterrence in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency

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EID: 77949326512     PISSN: 1057610X     EISSN: 15210731     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10576100903582543     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (68)

References (164)
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    • Note
    • Terrorism, for the purpose of this article, is the use of indiscriminate violence against non- combatants by non-state actors with the purpose of generating fear in order to "signal," communicate, and advance particular sociopolitical objectives. This definition implies that terrorism, as Bruce Hoff- man notes, creates "psychological repercussions beyond the immediate victim." Non-state terrorist organizations act independently from states and lack sovereign territorial control. Concise definitions are muddied due to the considerable overlap that exists between terrorism and other forms of political violence, like insurgency, guerrilla warfare, and civil war. Daniel Byman, for instance, finds parallels between "insurgency" and "terrorism," noting that nearly all insurgent groups rely on terrorism at some point. Austin Long divides "regional armed groups" (militias, guerrillas, and civil-war belligerents) from "transnational" groups and "spontaneous terror cells." And John Arquilla, among others, utilizes the concept of "networks" to describe some, but not all, of these violent non-state groups. Recent research even equates the Global War on Terrorism as a "global counterinsurgency" against an international assemblage of like-minded, jihad-inspired groups and individuals. Furthermore, violent non-state organizations diverge greatly in terms of coercive strength, decision-making structures, financing mechanisms, ideological constructions, and state association.
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    • John Arquilla, "The End of War as We Knew it?" Third World Quarterly 28(2) (2007);
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    • Do Targeted Killings Work? A Multivariate Analysis of Israel's Controversial Tactic during Al-Aqsa Uprising
    • Mohammed Hafez and Joseph Hatfield, "Do Targeted Killings Work? A Multivariate Analysis of Israel's Controversial Tactic during Al-Aqsa Uprising," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 29 (2006);
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    • Honig, "Explaining Israel's Misuse of Strategic Assassinations," Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 30 (2007);
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    • For theoretical research on deterring terrorism, see, among others, Forthcoming
    • For theoretical research on deterring terrorism, see, among others: Alex S. Wilner, "Deterring the Undeterrable: Coercion, Denial, and Delegitimization in Counterterrorism," Journal of Strategic Studies (Forthcoming, 2010).
    • (2010) Journal of Strategic Studies
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  • 33
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    • Steve Simon and Jeff Martini, "Terrorism: Denying Al Qaeda its Popular Support," Washington Quarterly 28(1) (2004);
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    • Complex Deterrence in the Asymmetric- Warfare Era
    • in T. V. Paul, Patrick Morgan, James Wirtz, eds, (Chicago, Chicago University Press). For the literature testing deterrence in counterterrorism
    • Emmanuel Adler, "Complex Deterrence in the Asymmetric- Warfare Era," in T. V. Paul, Patrick Morgan, James Wirtz, eds., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age (Chicago, Chicago University Press, 2009). For the literature testing deterrence in counterterrorism,
    • (2009) Complex Deterrence: Strategy In the Global Age
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    • Deterring Nonstate Terrorist Groups: The Case of Hizballah
    • see
    • see Shmuel Bar, "Deterring Nonstate Terrorist Groups: The Case of Hizballah," Comparative Strategy 26(5) (2007);
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    • Deterring Terrorists: What Israel has Learned
    • June/July
    • Shmuel Bar, "Deterring Terrorists: What Israel has Learned," Policy Review no. 149 (June/July 2008);
    • (2008) Policy Review , Issue.149
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    • Israel and Asymmetrical Deterrence
    • Amos Malka, "Israel and Asymmetrical Deterrence," Comparative Strategy 27(1) (2008);
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    • Urban Terrorists in Continental Europe after 1970: Implications for Deterrence and Defeat of Violent Nonstate Actors
    • Gary Geipel, "Urban Terrorists in Continental Europe after 1970: Implications for Deterrence and Defeat of Violent Nonstate Actors," Comparative Strategy 26(5) (2007);
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    • Brian Jenkins, Assassination: Should We Stay the Good Guys?
    • Note
    • Jenkins does conclude, however, that "being at war. would make a difference." See, Brian Jenkins, "Assassination: Should We Stay the Good Guys?" Los Angeles Times, 16 November 1986 (emphasis added).
    • (1986) Los Angeles Times , vol.16
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    • Reviving the Assassination Option
    • December
    • David Silverstein, "Reviving the Assassination Option," The American Enterprise, December 2002, p. 36.
    • (2002) The American Enterprise , pp. 36
    • Silverstein, D.1
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    • Honig contends otherwise, suggesting that targeted individuals may have political aspirations that might help foster future negotiation. See
    • Honig contends otherwise, suggesting that targeted individuals may have political aspirations that might help foster future negotiation. See Honig, "Explaining Israel's Misuse of Strategic Assassinations," pp. 564-565.
    • Explaining Israel's Misuse of Strategic Assassinations
  • 61
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    • The Year in Ideas: A to Z; Announced Assassinations
    • December
    • Samantha Shapiro, "The Year in Ideas: A to Z; Announced Assassinations," The New York Times Magazine, 9 December 2001.
    • (2001) The New York Times Magazine , vol.9
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    • Is Assassination an Option?
    • Bruce Berkowtiz, "Is Assassination an Option?" Hoover Digest no. 1 (2002).
    • (2002) Hoover Digest , pp. 1
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    • The Logic of Israel's Targeted Killing
    • Gal Luft, "The Logic of Israel's Targeted Killing, The Middle East Quarterly 10(1) (2003)
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    • The Nation: Terminator; Making Rules in the World Between War and Peace
    • August
    • Tim Weiner, "The Nation: Terminator; Making Rules in the World Between War and Peace," The New York Times, 19 August 2001.
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    • Note
    • Extrajudicial, Summary, or Arbitrary Executions: Report of the Special Rapporteur, UN Doc. E/CN.4/2003/3 (13 January 2003), p. 16.
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    • Passive Sponsors of Terrorism
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    • Fighting Barbarians
    • David Tucker
    • David Tucker, "Fighting Barbarians," Parameters 28 (1998).
    • (1998) Parameters , pp. 28
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    • License to Kill
    • November, Quoted in
    • Quoted in Uri Blau, "License to Kill," Haaretz, 27 November 2008.
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    • Military Ethics of Fighting Terror: Principles
    • For research on the normative and philosophical aspects concerning targeted killings, see
    • For research on the normative and philosophical aspects concerning targeted killings, see Asa Kasher and Amos Yadlin, "Military Ethics of Fighting Terror: Principles," Philosophia 34 (2006);
    • (2006) Philosophia , vol.34
    • Kasher, A.1    Yadlin, A.2
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    • Assassination and Preventive Killing
    • Asa Kasher and Amos Yadlin, "Assassination and Preventive Killing," SAIS Review 25(1) (2005);
    • (2005) Sais Review , vol.25 , Issue.1
    • Kasher, A.1    Yadlin, A.2
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    • Paul Robinson, "The Ethics of the Strong against the Tactics of the Weak," Philosophia 36 (2008);
    • (2008) Philosophia , vol.36
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    • By Any Name Illegal and Immoral: Response to 'Israel's Policy of Targeted Killing
    • Yael Stein, "By Any Name Illegal and Immoral: Response to 'Israel's Policy of Targeted Killing,'" Ethics and International Affairs 17(1) (2003);
    • (2003) Ethics and International Affairs , vol.17 , Issue.1
    • Stein, Y.1
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    • Note
    • It is important to note that targeted captures are also effective. Indeed, many states are quick to point out that they would rather capture than eliminate individual terrorist adversaries. The apprehension of leaders provides the state with invaluable operational, tactical, and strategic intelligence that can lead to further detentions and other successes. Pictures and videos of captured leaders also retain propaganda value. Think of the unflattering pictures associated with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed's (KSM) 2003 capture (see George Tenet's enlightening account in At the Center of the Storm, pp. 250-253) or the embarrassing tirade Abimael Guzman, onetime leader of Peru's Shining Path, shouted from his prison cell. Captured leaders can also be put on trial, providing their victims with some form of justice. The obvious drawback is that targeted captures are difficult to carry out successfully. As Tamil Tiger leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran recently illustrated in his desperate bid to escape encroaching Sri Lankan forces, few leaders willingly give themselves up. That they often fight to the death suggests that targeted captures place military personnel in positions of unwarranted danger. Finally, there is the related risk of operational failure; a wanted individual is more likely to elude his/her captors than survive a pinpoint precision strike.
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    • The Best Defence is a Terrific Offence: Four Approaches to Countering Modern Terrorism
    • See
    • See Alex Wilner, "The Best Defence is a Terrific Offence: Four Approaches to Countering Modern Terrorism," AIMS Commentary (2007), pp. 5-7;
    • (2007) Aims Commentary , pp. 5-7
    • Wilner, A.1
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    • The Role of Targeted Killing in the Campaign against Terror
    • Peter Cullen, "The Role of Targeted Killing in the Campaign against Terror," Joint Force Quarterly 48 (2008).
    • (2008) Joint Force Quarterly , pp. 48
    • Cullen, P.1
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    • Sharon is Sharon is Sharon
    • April
    • Ari Shavit, "Sharon is Sharon is Sharon," Haaretz, 12 April 2001.
    • (2001) Haaretz , pp. 12
    • Shavit, A.1
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    • The Myth of the Invincible Terrorist and Yossi Melman, Targeted Killings-A Retro Fashion very much in Vogue
    • Note, March
    • Consider the regression of the Shinning Path following the 1992 capture of Guzman, the PKK's demise, from a 30,000 strong army under Abdullah Ocalan to today's much less formidable organization after his arrest in Kenya in 1999, the decade long setback for Palestinian Islamic Jihad following Israel's 1995 strike against its leader, Fathi Shikaki, in Malta, and the complete collapse of a-Saika, a Syrian controlled faction of the PLO, after the mysterious death of its leader Zuheir Mohsein in France in 1979. See Harmon, "The Myth of the Invincible Terrorist" and Yossi Melman, "Targeted Killings-A Retro Fashion very much in Vogue," Haaretz, 24 March 2004.
    • (2004) Haaretz , pp. 24
    • Harmon1
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    • See, Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania
    • See Marc Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania, 2004), pp. 137-139;
    • (2004) Understanding Terror Networks , pp. 137-139
    • Sageman, M.1
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    • The Post-Madrid Face of Al Qaeda
    • Rohan Gunaratna, "The Post-Madrid Face of Al Qaeda," The Washington Quarterly 27(3) (2004), pp. 92-94;
    • (2004) The Washington Quarterly , vol.27 , Issue.3 , pp. 92-94
    • Gunaratna, R.1
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    • Fighting Networked Terrorist Groups: Lessons from Israel
    • Seth Jones, "Fighting Networked Terrorist Groups: Lessons from Israel," Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 30 (2007), pp. 282-283, 294-298.
    • (2007) Studies In Conflict & Terrorism , vol.30 , pp. 282-283
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    • Zarkawi's Cry, 12 February
    • National Review Online, "Zarkawi's Cry," 12 February 2004.
    • (2004) National Review Online
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    • Note
    • For a discussion of the Taliban's use of "mentally unsound" and physically disabled individuals, drug addicts, and children in suicide operations
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    • Mullah Omar's Missiles: A Field Report On Suicide Bombers In Afghanistan
    • see
    • see Brian Glyn Williams, Mullah Omar's Missiles: A Field Report on Suicide Bombers in Afghanistan," Middle East Policy 15(4) (2008), pp. 38-42.
    • (2008) Middle East Policy , vol.15 , Issue.4 , pp. 38-42
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    • When to Target Leaders
    • Catherine Lotrionte, "When to Target Leaders," The Washington Quarterly 26(3) (2003), p. 81.
    • (2003) The Washington Quarterly , vol.26 , Issue.3 , pp. 81
    • Lotrionte, C.1
  • 102
    • 77949327488 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Note
    • The Japanese Red Army in the 1970s, the Abu Nidal Organization in the 1980s, and the Tamil Tigers today are but a few examples. See Harmon, "The Myth of the Invincible Terrorist."
  • 104
    • 77949312231 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Al-Qaida: The Unwanted Guests
    • Trans. Donald Hounam, July
    • Syed Saleem Shahzad (Trans. Donald Hounam), "Al-Qaida: The Unwanted Guests," Le Monde Diplomatique, July 2007.
    • (2007) Le Monde Diplomatique
    • Shahzad, S.S.1
  • 106
    • 78649971462 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • For overviews of deterrence theory, see Austin Long, Santa Monica, CA: RAND, chapters 5 and 7
    • For overviews of deterrence theory, see Austin Long, Deterrence: From Cold War to Long War (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2008), chapters 5 and 7;
    • (2008) Deterrence: From Cold War to Long War
  • 108
    • 77949317300 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Complex Deterrence: An Introduction
    • in T. V. Paul, Patrick Morgan, James Wirtz, eds., (Chicago, Chicago University Press
    • T. V. Paul, "Complex Deterrence: An Introduction," in T. V. Paul, Patrick Morgan, James Wirtz, eds., Complex Deterrence: Strategy in the Global Age (Chicago, Chicago University Press, 2009).
    • (2009) Complex Deterrence: Strategy In the Global Age
    • Paul, T.V.1
  • 109
    • 0004076633 scopus 로고
    • Alexander George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy, New York: Columbia University Press
    • Alexander George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), pp. 11-13.
    • (1974) Theory and Practice , pp. 11-13
  • 110
    • 84952243964 scopus 로고
    • What Makes Deterrence Work? Cases from 1900 to 1980
    • Paul Huth and Bruce Russett, "What Makes Deterrence Work? Cases from 1900 to 1980," World Politics 36(4) (1984), p. 499.
    • (1984) World Politics , vol.36 , Issue.4 , pp. 499
    • Huth, P.1    Russett, B.2
  • 111
    • 0004165120 scopus 로고
    • Cambridge: Harvard University Press
    • Thomas Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960), p. 9.
    • (1960) The Strategy of Conflict , pp. 9
    • Schelling, T.1
  • 112
    • 84925979398 scopus 로고
    • Thinking about Nuclear Terrorism
    • Thomas Schelling, "Thinking about Nuclear Terrorism," International Security 6(4) (1982), p. 72.
    • (1982) International Security , vol.6 , Issue.4 , pp. 72
    • Schelling, T.1
  • 113
    • 84971972462 scopus 로고
    • Testing Deterrence theory: Rigor Makes a Difference
    • July
    • Paul Huth and Bruce Russett, "Testing Deterrence theory: Rigor Makes a Difference," World Politics 42 (July 1990), p. 471.
    • (1990) World Politics , vol.42 , pp. 471
    • Huth, P.1    Russett, B.2
  • 114
    • 0033264263 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Practicing Coercion
    • See, December
    • See Frank Harvey, "Practicing Coercion," Journal of Conflict Resolution 43(6), (December 1999), pp. 840-843;
    • (1999) Journal of Conflict Resolution , vol.43 , Issue.6 , pp. 840-843
    • Harvey, F.1
  • 115
    • 0032464856 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rigor Mortis or Rigor, More Test: Necessity, Sufficiency, and Deterrence
    • Frank P. Harvey, "Rigor Mortis or Rigor, More Test: Necessity, Sufficiency, and Deterrence," International Studies Quarterly 42 (1998).
    • (1998) International Studies Quarterly , pp. 42
    • Harvey, F.P.1
  • 117
    • 5644297173 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
    • Patrick Morgan, Deterrence Now (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003).
    • (2003) Deterrence Now
    • Morgan, P.1
  • 132
    • 77949317541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Deterring Violent Non-State Actors in the New Millennium
    • Note
    • William Casebeer and Troy Thomas, "Deterring Violent Non-State Actors in the New Millennium," Strategic Insight 2(12) (2003), p. 4. Melman argues instead that overusing targeted killings "dissipates" the mystery and fear they produce if used sparingly.
    • (2003) Strategic Insight , vol.2 , Issue.12 , pp. 4
    • Casebeer, W.1    Thomas, T.2
  • 135
    • 77949321406 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • In the West Bank, Wanted Militants are Made to Feel Unwanted
    • November
    • Avi Issacharoff, "In the West Bank, Wanted Militants are Made to Feel Unwanted," Haaretz, 13 November 2007.
    • (2007) Haaretz , vol.13
    • Issacharoff, A.1
  • 136
    • 77949332317 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • James Bennett, "Key Militia Leader Dies in Bomb Blast in the West Bank
    • See also, January
    • See also, James Bennett, "Key Militia Leader Dies in Bomb Blast in the West Bank," New York Times, 15 January 2002.
    • (2002) New York Times , pp. 15
  • 137
    • 77949329471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • While Pakistan Burns
    • See, 9 November
    • See, Sami Yousafzai and Ron Moreau, "While Pakistan Burns," Newsweek, 9 November 2007;
    • (2007) Newsweek
    • Yousafzai, S.1    Moreau, R.2
  • 138
    • 77949312103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Top Taliban Commander Killed In Southern Afghanistan, 30 August
    • Radio Free Europe, "Top Taliban Commander Killed In Southern Afghanistan," 30 August 2007;
    • (2007) Radio Free Europe
  • 139
    • 77949324260 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taliban Commander Says Reports of Death Premature, 14 September
    • The News International," Taliban Commander Says Reports of Death Premature,"14September 2007.
    • (2007) The News International
  • 140
    • 77949321737 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mullah Omar's Son 'was Killed in First Air Strike
    • 22 October
    • Patrick Cockburn, "Mullah Omar's Son 'was Killed in First Air Strike,'" The Independent, 22 October 2001;
    • (2001) The Independent
    • Cockburn, P.1
  • 142
    • 77949317299 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • U.S. Offers $200,000 to Catch "Most Wanted
    • Associated Press, October
    • Associated Press, "U.S. Offers $200,000 to Catch "Most Wanted" Taliban," 1 October 2007.
    • (2007) Taliban , pp. 1
  • 144
    • 77949318078 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Revolution in the Mountains (Part III): Through the Eyes of the Taliban
    • 5 May
    • Syed Shahzad, "Revolution in the Mountains (Part III): Through the Eyes of the Taliban," Asia Times, 5 May 2004;
    • (2004) Asia Times
    • Shahzad, S.1
  • 145
    • 77949323593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taliban Welcome Back an Old Friend
    • April
    • Syed Saleem Shahzad, "Taliban Welcome Back an Old Friend," Asia Times, 4 April 2008;
    • (2008) Asia Times , vol.4
    • Shahzad, S.S.1
  • 146
    • 77949316932 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Report: Strike Targets Baitullah Mehsud's Hideout in Pakistan
    • June
    • Bill Roggio, "Report: Strike Targets Baitullah Mehsud's Hideout in Pakistan," The Long War Journal, 15 June 2008;
    • (2008) The Long War Journal , vol.15
    • Roggio, B.1
  • 148
    • 84876887692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • US Captures Senior al Qaeda Leader Mohammad Rahim
    • 14 March
    • Bill Roggio, "US Captures Senior al Qaeda Leader Mohammad Rahim," The Long War Journal, 14 March 2008;
    • (2008) The Long War Journal
    • Roggio, B.1
  • 150
    • 77949320527 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Siraj Haqqani's Deputy Killed in Afghanistan
    • 14 December
    • Bill Roggio ";Siraj Haqqani's Deputy Killed in Afghanistan," The Weekly Standard, 14 December 2007;
    • (2007) The Weekly Standard
    • Roggio, B.1
  • 151
    • 77949313620 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Press Release, "Coalition Forces Confirm Darim Sedgai Death,", 26 January
    • Combined Joint Task Force-101, Press Release, "Coalition Forces Confirm Darim Sedgai Death," 26 January 2008.
    • (2008) Combined Joint Task Force-101
  • 152
    • 77949328073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Note
    • These reports are "semi" private in that they are not usually made available to the general public, although the author was able, with a little cajoling and academic pleading, to acquire them, free of charge, for the periods under review.
  • 153
    • 77949330717 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Notes
    • Sudden increases in violence immediately following the eliminations might be based on the Pashtun tribal code of badal (revenge). Badal is the "means of enforcement by which an individual seeks personal justice for wrongs done against him or his kin group." Although a complicated social institution, retaliation does play a prominent role in Afghan society. Other custumary laws related to dispute resolution, like nanwati (forgiveness), melmastia (hospitality), and jirga (consensus building), are also inherent to Pashtun society. The author is indebted to an anonymous reviewer for these suggestions.
  • 156
    • 77949317753 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hafez and Hatfield label a shift in activity the "substitution effect," where less costly activities are carried out in response to counterterrorism campaigns
    • Hafez and Hatfield, "Do Targeted Assassinations Work?", Hafez and Hatfield label a shift in activity the "substitution effect," where less costly activities are carried out in response to counterterrorism campaigns.Ibid., p.365.
    • Do Targeted Assassinations Work? , pp. 365
  • 157
    • 77949330826 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Note
    • Three separate suicide bombers attacked members of the GoA.On 17 May, a suicide bomber wounded cultural minister Karim Khurram.On 18 May, a bomber attempted to assassinate Asadullah Khalid, the governor of Kandahar by ramming his explosive-laden car into the governor's SUV.And on 26 May, a bomber attacked the governor's official residency.
  • 158
    • 77949325100 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taliban a Step Ahead of US assault
    • August
    • Syed Saleem Shahzad, "Taliban a Step Ahead of US assault," Asia Times, 11 August 2007.
    • (2007) Asia Times , pp. 11
    • Shahzad, S.S.1
  • 159
    • 84951315683 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spies in Their Ranks Worry Taliban
    • 18 May
    • Rahimullah Yusufzai ";Spies in Their Ranks Worry Taliban," The News International, 18 May 2007.
    • (2007) The News International
    • Yusufzai, R.1
  • 161
    • 77949328302 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mullah Omar Confirms Firing of Mullah Mansoor Dadullah
    • 2 January
    • Bill Roggio, "Mullah Omar Confirms Firing of Mullah Mansoor Dadullah," The Long War Journal, 2 January 2008;
    • (2008) The Long War Journal
    • Roggio, B.1
  • 162
    • 84951315711 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taliban Dismisses Senior Afghan Commander [Update]
    • December
    • Bill Roggio, "Taliban Dismisses Senior Afghan Commander [Update]," The Long War Journal, 29 December 2007.
    • (2007) The Long War Journal , pp. 29
    • Roggio, B.1
  • 164
    • 77949314788 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sardar Ahmad, "Forces in Afghanistan Shift Focus to Taliban Leaders
    • January, Separating or isolating terrorist leaders from their followers and the broader community is an important facet of counterinsurgency doctrine
    • Separating or isolating terrorist leaders from their followers and the broader community is an important facet of counterinsurgency doctrine.Sardar Ahmad, "Forces in Afghanistan Shift Focus to Taliban Leaders," Agence France-Presse, 2 January 2007.
    • (2007) Agence France-presse , pp. 2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.