Containment: Rebuilding a strategy against global terror

Containment: Rebuilding a Strategy against Global Terror

Volumn , Issue , 2009, Pages

  Shapiro, Ian ^a  

^a NONE

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References (212)

1. This story is recounted in Michael Graetz and Ian Shapiro, Death by a Thousand Cuts: The Fight over Taxing Inherited Wealth (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005).
2. "Gore Accepts Democratic Nomination as 'My Own Man,' "CNN.com,August 18, 2000, http://transcripts.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/08/17/gore.speech/index.html [8/2/06].
3. Nicholas Sambanis, "It's Official: There Is Now a Civil War in Iraq," New York Times, July 23, 2006, p.A13.
4. Leader, Economist,August 13, 2005, pp. 12-13.
5. Rory Stewart, "Even in Iraq, All Politics Is Local," New York Times, July 13, 2006, p.A23.
6. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC: The White House, 2002), http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html [8/1/05].
7. Republicans gained two seats in the Senate and eight seats in the House in 2002. In 2004, they gained two more House seats and four senators.
8. See the second Bush-Kerry presidential debate, 10/08/04, Washington University, St. Louis,MO, www.debates.org/pages/trans2004c.html [10/5/05].
9. Michael Dukakis 1988 nomination acceptance speech, July 21, 1988, http://www.geocities.com/Wellesley/1116/dukakis88.html [10/5/05].
10. X, "The Sources of Soviet Conduct," Foreign Affairs, July 1947, www.foreignaffairs.org/19470701faessay25403-p0/x/thesources-of-soviet-conduct.html [10/12/05].
11. See "Millennium Bomber Sentenced to 22 Years," http://www.elitestv.com/pub/2005/Jul/EEN42e7f6cb3616e.html [7/28/05].
12. Promotion of National Unity and Reconciliation Act, 1995, 20 (1) b, p. 12. http://www.info.gov.za/acts/1995/a34-95.pdf [11/15/05].
13. The fourth plane, which crashed into a rural field near Shanksville, Pennsylvania, following passenger resistance, had apparently been intended for the White House.
14. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1333, adopted December 19, 2000, http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N00/806/62/PDF/N0080662.pdf ?OpenElement [10/31/05].
15. The State of the Union, January 29, 2001, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html [7/22/05].
16. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/06/20020601-3.html [7/22/05].
17. "In Cheney's Words:The Administration Case for Removing Saddam Hussein," New York Times,August 27, 2002, p.A8.
18. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2002), p. 13, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss5.html [7/22/05].
19. Donald Rumsfeld,"Taking the Fight to the Terrorists Is the Right Tactic," Stars and Stripes, October 29, 2003.
20. See The National Security Strategy of the United States (2006), p. 3, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/index.html [9/8/06].
21. See http://usinfo.state.gov/usa/infousa/facts/democrac/50.htm [7/27/05].
22. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2002), p. 6, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss3.html [7/28/05].
23. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2002), p. 6, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss3.html [7/27/05].
24. "You Are Either with Us or against Us," CNN.com, November 6, 2001, http://archives.cnn.com/2001/US/11/06/gen.attack.on.terror/ [7/27/05].
25. Scott A. Silverstone, "The Ethical Limits to Preventive War," Carnegie Council, May 2004, http://www.cceia.org/viewMedia.php/prmID/5108 [7/23/06].
26. NSC: 68 United States Objectives and Programs for Na- tional Security (April 14, 1950), §VIII C, http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/nsc-68/nsc68-3.htm [7/23/06].
27. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2002), p. 15, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss5.html [7/28/05].
28. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2006), p. 23, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/index.html [9/8/06].
29. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2002), p. 15, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss5.html [7/27/05].
30. Colin Powell, Address to the UN Security Council, February 5, 2003, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/02/20030205-1.html [7/29/05].
31. See "Bush Watch War Lies," http://bushwatch.org/wmd.htm [7/28/05], and "Was the Threat Imminent, Immediate, or Mortal?" http://zfacts.com/p/559.html [7/28/05].
32. Wendy Ross, "Bush Discusses Future Needs of US Military with Top Advisers," http://japan.usembassy.gov/e/p/tp-se1619.html [7/29/05].
33. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2002), p. v, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nssintro.html [7/29/05].
34. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2006), p. 3, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/index.html [9/8/06].
35. See Terry Neal,"Iraq Fighting Shifts to US Soil,"Washington Post, November 17, 2005, [11/22/05].
36. See David Frum and Richard Perle, An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror (New York: Random House, 2003), p. 98.
37. Woodrow Wilson, War Messages, 65th Cong., 1st Sess., Senate Doc.No. 5, Serial No. 7264,Washington,DC, 1917.
38. Harry Truman, Address before a Joint Session of Congress, March 12, 1947, http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/trudoc.htm [4/12/06].
39. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2002), p. iv, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nssintro.html [7/29/05].
40. "Bush:World Is Changing for Better,"CNN.com, January 21, 2004, http://edition.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/20/sotu.international/ [7/29/05].
41. "Bush: World Is Changing for Better," CNN.com, January 21, 2004, http://edition.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/20/sotu.international/ [7/29/05].
42. See http://www.debates.org/pages/trans2000a.html [8/1/05].
43. See http://www.rightwingnews.com/quotes/bushquotes.php [8/1/05].
44. "You Are Either with Us or against Us,"CNN.com, November 6, 2001, http://archives.cnn.com/2001/US/11/06/gen.attack.on.terror/ [7/31/05].
45. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/11/20011106-2.html [7/31/05].
46. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2006), p. 7, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss/2006/index.html [9/8/06].
47. See http://www.debates.org/pages/trans2000b.html [8/1/05].
48. See http://lawofwar.org/hague_v.htm [7/31/05].
49. See http://www.infoplease.com/ce6/history/A0835328.html [7/31/05].
50. See http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/08/26/politics/main570110.shtml [7/31/05].
51. See http://www.ciaonet.org/special_section/iraq_review/pi_gov/pi_gov_03.html [8/1/05].
52. The National Security Strategy of the United States (2002), p. iv, http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nssintro.html [7/30/05].
53. http://multimedia.belointeractive.com/attack/bush/1109bushtext.html [7/31/05].
54. Gaddis, Strategies of Containment, p. 55.
55. See J.G.A. Pocock, The Machiavellian Moment: Florentine Political Thought and the Atlantic Republican Tradition (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003).
56. X, "The Sources of Soviet Conduct," Foreign Affairs, July 1947, www.foreignaffairs.org/19470701faessay25403-p0/x/thesources-of-soviet-conduct.html [10/12/05].
57. Gaddis, Strategies of Containment, p. 55.
58. NSC 58, September 14, 1949. Reproduced in Thomas Etzold and John Lewis Gaddis, Containment: Documents on American Policy and Strategy (New York: Columbia University Press, 1978), p. 220.
59. Niccolò Machiavelli, The Discourses (ca. 1517), trans. Leslie J.Walker (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1979), §1.5.
60. See Ian Shapiro, Democratic Justice (New Haven:Yale University Press, 1999), pp. 1-63.
61. See Ian Shapiro, The State of Democratic Theory (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003), pp. 79-100.
62. Fukuyama, America at the Crossroads.
63. See the open letter to President Clinton published by the neoconservative Project for the New American Century on January 26, 1998, at http://www.theindyvoice.com/index.blog?entry_id=417960 [3/24/06].
64. Fukuyama, America at the Crossroads, p. 172.
65. Vance Serchuk, "Dutch Retreat? The Perils of Turning Afghanistan over to NATO,"American Enterprise Institute, January 9, 2006, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.23651/pub_detail.asp [6/18/06].
66. Nick Paton Walsh and Patrick Wintour, "Putin: Don't Lecture Me about Democracy," Observer, July 16, 2006, http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1821488,00.html [7/26/06].
67. Fukuyama, America at the Crossroads, p. 173.
68. See John Rawls, Political Liberalism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), pp. 131-254.
69. This was the main subject of his famous eight-thousandword "Long Telegram" when he was a diplomat in Moscow in 1946 that first got the attention of the Truman administration.
70. See Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1998).
71. David Frum and Richard Perle, An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror (New York: Random House, 2003), p. 42.
72. "Iran, Its Neighbours and the Regional Crises," ed. Robert Lowe and Claire Spencer,The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London, 2006, p. 6.
73. Kenneth M. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004), p. 352.
74. At the time Syria, which was also cooperating with the United States, was restricting the flow of weapons to Hezbollah through Damascus.The Iranian weapons might have been destined for them. Ibid., p. 351.
75. See Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004), pp. 86-89.
76. In 2005 he would be appointed by Kofi Annan to his Alliance of Civilizations, a group dedicated to combating extremism and overcoming cultural barriers between the Western and Muslim worlds.
77. Ehteshami,"Iran's International Posture," p. 182.
78. Lowe and Spencer, "Iran, Its Neighbours and the Regional Crises," p. 10.
79. Ehteshami,"Iran's International Posture," p. 183.
80. "Threats and Responses; Excerpts from Debate on Senate Floor on Use of Force against Iraq," New York Times, October 8, 2002, p.A14.
81. "Threats and Responses; Bush's Speech on Iraq:'Saddam Hussein and His Sons Must Leave,' " New York Times, March 18, 2003, p.A14.
82. The U.S. alliance with the warlords in Afghanistan to defeat the Taliban was equally a case of realistic compromise, with equally significant long-run costs.These will be difficult to minimize unless a viable Afghan state can be built.
83. See President Bush's joint White House press conference with Ariel Sharon, April 14, 2004, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/04/20040414-4.html [4/3/06].
84. Lydia Saad, "Palestinians Have Little Faith in US as a Peace Broker," Gallup News Service, June 20, 2006, http://poll.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=23377 [7/12/06].
85. The International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2000-2001 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000).
86. Alan Greenspan, Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, January 25, 2001, U.S. Senate, http://www.federalreserve.gov/Boarddocs/testimony/2001/20010125/default.htm [7/26/06].
87. John Gaddis, Strategies of Containment, 2nd ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005), p. 260.
88. "Katrina's Cost May Test GOP Harmony; Some Want Bush to Give Details on How U.S.Will Pay," Washington Post, September 21, 2005, p.A1.
89. Ron Suskind, The One Percent Doctrine (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2006).
90. See http://coursesa.matrix.msu.edu/~hst306/documents/indust.html [10/5/05].
91. See Michael Renner, "Military Spending Near Record High," World Watch 5, no. 18 (September/October 2005). "The United States spends almost as much as the rest of the world combined: $455 billion in 2004, or 47% of the global total, reports SIPRI."
92. See Dara Cohen, Mariano-Florentino Cuellar, and Barry Weingast,"Crisis Bureaucracy: Homeland Security and the Political Design of Legal Mandates" (mimeo, Stanford University Department of Political Science, 2006).
93. Dan Eggen and Mary Beth Sheridan,"Anti-terror Funding Cut in DC and New York,"Washington Post, June 1, 2006, p. A1, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-yn/content/article/ 2006/05/31/AR2006053101364.html [7/31/06].
94. Robert Pape,"The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review 97, no. 3 (August 2003): 343-61.
95. "Report of the Task Force for a Unified Security Budget for the United States, 2007," Center for Defense Information (May 2006), p. 13.
96. "In May, the active army shipped 5,039 recruits to boot camp, 25 percent less than its goal for the month." See "Military Struggling to Fill Ranks of Reserve Units," Associated Press, June 10, 2005.
97. See President Bush's Second Inaugural Address, January 2005, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/01/20050120-.html [5/25/06].
98. George W. Bush, January 2003 State of the Union, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/01/20030128-19.html [4/15/06].
99. See Michael Dobbs,"U.S. Had Key Role in Iraq Buildup," Washington Post, December 30, 2002, p.A1.
100. Thomas Schelling, "Iranian Nuke Would Be a Suicide Bomb," New Perspectives Quarterly 23, no. 1 (Spring 2006), http://ww.digitalnpq.org/archive/2006_winter/schelling.html [4/15/06].
101. See William Broad, "Sowing Death: How Japan Germ Terror Alerted the World," New York Times,May 26, 1998, p.A1.
102. See Federation of American Scientists Intelligence Resource Program, Militarily Critical Technologies List (MCTL), Part II:Weapons of Mass Destruction Technologies, Section 4- Chemical Weapons Technology, http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/mctl98-2/p2sec04.pdf [5/24/06].
103. See "Facts about Sarin," Centers for Disease Control, http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/sarin/basics/facts.asp [4/15/06].
104. "We don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud," said Condoleezza Rice in September of 2002."Top Bush Officials Push Case against Saddam," September 8, 2002, http://archives.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/09/08/iraq.debate/[5/25/06].
105. "Iran, Its Neighbours and the Regional Crises," ed. Robert Lowe and Claire Spencer,The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, London, 2006, p. 14.
106. Richard Oppel Jr.,"Iraq Official Says Iran Has Right to Atomic Power Goal," New York Times,May 27, 2006, p.A6.
107. Robert A. Pape, Dying to Win:The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism (New York: Random House, 2005), pp. 248-49.
108. Murray Waas and Brian Beutler, "What Bush Was Told about Iraq," National Journal 38, no. 9 (March 4, 2006): 40-43.
109. See Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., "Bush's Thousand Days," Washington Post,April 24, 2006, p.A17.
110. Marc Perelman, "New Front Sets Sights on Toppling Iran," Forward News, May 16, 2003, http://www.forward.com/issues/2003/03.05.16/news2.html [5/10/06].
111. Jenifer Johnson,"Regime Change in Iran Now in Bush's Sights," Sunday Herald, July 18, 2004, http://www.forward.com/issues/2003/03.05.16/news2.html [5/10/06].
112. See Michael Slackman and David E. Sanger, "US and Iranians Agree to Discuss Violence in Iraq," New York Times, March 17, 2006, p.A1, published the same week as the 2006 National Security Strategy was released.
113. Francis Fukuyama, America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power and the Neoconservative Legacy (New Haven:Yale University Press, 2006), p. 176.
114. Robert O.Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984), p. 247.
115. Keohane, After Hegemony, p. 259.
116. See United Nations Office of the Iraq Programme Oilfor- Food, Press Release, November 19, 2003, http://www.un .org/Depts/oip/cpmd/notices/terminationstatusoffunds031119 .html [5/24/06].
117. See "Two Are Accused of Fraud in Iraqi Rebuilding Projects," San Diego Union Tribune, November 18, 2005, http://www .signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20051118/news_1n18fraud.html [11/20/05].
118. See "Rep. Cunningham Pleads Guilty to Bribes, Resigns," Los Angeles Times, November 29, 2005, http://www.latimes.com/ business/la-me-duke29nov29,0,7903329.story?coll=la-homebusiness [12/5/05].
119. David Rieff, "Were Sanctions Right?" New York Times, July 29, 2003, http://www.casi.org.uk/info/reiff.html [5/24/06].
120. John Lewis Gaddis, "After Containment:The Legacy of George Kennan in the Age of Terrorism," New Republic, April 25, 2005, p. 28.
121. Nicholas Kristof, "The Dear Leader's Boiling Cauldron," New York Times, July 11, 2006, p.A19.
122. President Bush's White House news conference, April 4, 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/04/ 20020404-1.html [5/6/06].
123. See Pape, Dying to Win; Mia Bloom, Dying to Kill: The Allure of Suicide Terror (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005); and Diego Gambetta, ed., Making Sense of Suicide Missions (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005).
124. See "Saudis Paid Bin Laden £200m," Sunday Times (UK), August 25, 2002.
125. Pape, Dying to Win, pp. 241-50, and Michael Scheuer, Imperial Hubris:Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror ( Dulles, VA: Potomac Books, 2004), pp. 6-17.
126. "I've asked why nobody saw it coming," said Ms Rice. See Steven R.Weisman, "Rice Admits U.S. Underestimated Hamas Strength," New York Times, January 30, 2006, p.A1.
127. Yitzhak Rabin, "From Setbacks to Living Together," New York Times, September 5, 1993, p. 10.
128. Graham Usher, "The New Hamas: Between Resistance and Participation," Middle East Report Online, August 21, 2005, http://www.merip.org/mero/mero082105.html [6/6/06].
129. Ehud Yaari, "Fight Delay," New Republic, February 13, 2006, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php? CID=899 [6/6/06].
130. See Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca,"Nationalist Terrorism as a Constrained War of Attrition" (mimeo, Instituto Juan March and Universidad de Madrid, February 2005).
131. Poll #55, Jerusalem Media and Communication Center, December 2005, http://www.jmcc.org/publicpoll/results/2005/ no55.pdf [7/12/06].
132. Yaari,"Fight Delay."
133. See "Hamas Rejects Al-Qaeda's Support," March 5, 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4776578.stm [5/17/06].
134. "Dealing with Hamas," ICG Middle East Report No. 21, Amman/Brussels, January 26, 2004, p. ii.
135. In the event, constitutionally mandated power sharing was accepted by the ANC for the interim (1994) constitution, but the National Party agreed to give it up in the final (1996) constitution in exchange for other concessions.
136. Interview with the author in Cape Town, December 8, 2004.
137. See Jung, Lust-Okar, and Shapiro, "Problems and Prospects," pp. 288-90, 297-301.
138. "Dealing with Hamas," p. 23.
139. See Shaul Mishal,"Hamas:The Agony of Victory," Strategic Assessment 9, no. 1 (April 2006): 6.
140. Steven Erlanger,"Hamas Fires Rockets into Israel, Ending 16-Month Truce," New York Times, June 11, 2006, p.A1.
141. See Jung, Lust-Okar, and Shapiro, "Problems and Prospects," pp. 297-301.
142. Olivier Roy, Globalized Islam:The Search for a New Ummah (New York: Columbia University Press, 2004), pp. 293-94.
143. Susan Glasser and Walter Pincus,"Seized Letter Outlines Al Qaeda Goals in Iraq," Washington Post, October 12, 2005, p.A13. Zarqawi denied the letter's authenticity.
144. Roy, Globalized Islam, pp. 293-95.
145. William F.Wechsler,"Follow the Money," Foreign Affairs, July/August, 2001, pp. 40-57.
146. See Jennifer Quinn and Paul Haven, "Money Trail Probed in Foiled Plot," Airport Business,August 12, 2006, http:// www.airportbusiness.com/article/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id= 7575 [9/8/06].
147. See "Update on the Global Campaign against Terrorist Financing," Council on Foreign Relations, June 15, 2004, http:// www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Revised_ Terrorist_Financing.pdf [6/12/06].
148. Gaddis,"After Containment," p. 28.
149. Senator John McCain speaking on the Imus in the Morning radio program, WFAN, New York, July 26, 2006, http:// www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9877519/ [7/26/06].
150. Pauline Jones-Luong and Ellen Lust-Okar, "Rethinking the Relationship between Transnational and National Islamists" (paper presented at the conference on Democracy, Governance, and Identity, University of Michigan, May 5-6, 2006).
151. See Zecharia Kahn, "The Hamas Gamble," Journal of Middle Eastern Geopolitics 2, no. 1 ( January/March 2006): 85-94.
152. "Update on the Global Campaign against Terrorist Financing."
153. Written testimony of David D. Aufhauser, General Counsel before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, United States Senate, September 25, 2003, http:// www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js760.htm [6/12/06].
154. Michael Slackman and David E. Sanger,"US and Iranians Agree to Discuss Violence in Iraq," New York Times, March 17, 2006, p.A1.
155. Peter Katzenstein and Robert Keohane, eds., Anti- Americanism in World Politics (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, forthcoming), manuscript pp. 12-13.
156. David Cortright and George Lopez, "Bombs, Carrots, and Sticks: The Use of Incentives and Sanctions," Arms Control Today, March 2005, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_03/ Cortright.asp#bio [6/18/06].
157. George Lopez and David Cortright, "Containing Iraq: Sanctions Worked," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2004, http://www .foreignaffairs.org/20040701faessay83409/george-a-lopez-davidcortright/ containing-iraq-sanctions-worked.html [6/10/06].
158. "Patterns of Global Terrorism," U.S. State Department, April 1996, http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/terror_96/overview .html [6/10/06].
159. "Lockerbie Crash Timeline," CNN.com, September 12, 2003, http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/08/ 14/lockerbie.timeline/ [6/10/06].
160. "Libya Pays France Plane Bomb Damages," BBC News, July 16, 1999, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/396254 .stm [6/18/06].
161. "Background Note: Libya," U.S. Department of State: Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, November 2005, http://www .state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5425.htm [6/18/06].
162. Flynt Leverett, "Why Libya Gave Up on the Bomb," New York Times, January 23, 2004, http://www.mtholyoke.edu/ acad/intrel/bush/libya.htm [6/10/06].
163. Andrew Solomon, "Circle of Fire: Libya's Reformers Dream of Rejoining the World," New Yorker,May 8, 2006, http:// www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060508fa_fact3 [6/10/06].
164. "Patterns of Global Terrorism: Libya 2002 Overview," MITP Terrorism Knowledge Base, http://www.tkb.org/More Patterns.jsp?countryCd=LY&year=2002 [6/10/06].
165. Jonathan Freedland,"The War's Silver Lining," Guardian, March 2, 2005, http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/ 0,3604,1428372,00.html [7/29/06].
166. Charles Glass, "Is Syria Next?" London Review of Books 25, no. 4 ( July 24, 2003), http://www.lrb.co.uk/v25/n14/glas01_ .html [7/29/06].
167. Fida Narsallah, "Syria after Ta'if: Lebanon and the Lebanese in Syrian Politics," in Contemporary Syria: Liberalization between Cold War and Cold Peace, ed. Eberhard Kienle (New York: British Academic Press, 1994), pp. 135-36.
168. Martin Indyk, interview with the author, July 28, 2006.
169. Resolution 1559 (September 2, 2004), http://daccessdds. un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N04/498/92/PDF/N0449892 .pdf ?OpenElement [7/29/06].
170. In March of 2005 an Israeli ex-general predicted to me off the record that this would occur. Israel had acquiesced in the Syrian presence in Lebanon just because the Israelis recognized this reality.
171. Paul Salem, interview with the author, July 28, 2006.
172. Martin Indyk, interview with the author, July 28, 2006, and follow-up correspondence, July 30, 2006.
173. Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004), p. 35.
174. President Bush's address to U.S. troops at Osan Air Base in Osan,Korea, November 19, 2005, http://www.whitehouse.gov/ news/releases/2005/11/20051119-5.html [9/6/06].
175. See chap. 5, n. 103.
176. Andrew Grice,"Blair Flies to Bush's Side to Mount Strong Defense of Iraq Invasion," Independent,May 22, 2006, p. 4.
177. Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, Electing to Fight:Why Emerging Democracies Go to War (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005).
178. Stathis Kalyvas and Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca, "Killing without Dying:The Absence of Suicide Missions," in Making Sense of Suicide Missions, ed. Diego Gambetta (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), p. 228.
179. Guardian Unlimited, interview with Madeleine Albright, October 30, 2003, http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0, 12271,1073881,00.html [5/27/06].
180. "Punishing Saddam," 60 Minutes,May 12, 1996. See also Madeleine Albright, Madame Secretary: A Memoir (New York: Miramax Books, 2005), p. 275.
181. Steven Roberts, "Senate, 78-21, Overrides Reagan's Veto and Imposes Sanctions on South Africa," New York Times, October 3, 1986, p. A1. On the ANC's support for sanctions, see http://www.anc.org.za/ancdocs/pr/1980s/pr881010a.html [6/16/06].
182. Nikolay Marinov, "Do Economic Sanctions Destabilize Country Leaders?" American Journal of Political Science 49, no. 3 ( July 2005): 564-76.
183. Steven Lee Meyers, "Trade vs. Rights: A US Debate with Burmese Focus," New York Times, March 5, 1997, p. A8; John Feffer, "Time to Lift North Korea's Quarantine," Yale Global Online, June 8, 2006, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display .article?id=7535 [9/8/06].
184. See Laura Rozen,"The Revolution Next Time," Boston Globe, October 10, 2004, http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ ideas/articles/2004/10/10/the_revolution_next_time?mode=PF [6/18/06].
185. Peter Katzenstein and Robert Keohane, eds., Anti- Americanism in World Politics (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, forthcoming), manuscript pp. 12-13.
186. See http://www.americanprogress.org/atf/cf/{E9245 FE4-9A2B-43C7-A521-5D6FF2E06E03}/INTEGRATED_ POWER.PDF [11/21/05].
187. See the review of The Withering Away of the Totalitarian State . . . and Other Surprises, by Jeane J. Kirkpatrick (Lanham, MD: AEI Press, 1990), by Saul Landau in Political Science Quarterly 106, no. 3 (Autumn 1991): 546-48.
188. See chap. 4, n. 41, above.
189. Ewen MacAskill, Simon Tisdall, and Robert Tait,"Lone Jewish MP Confronts Ahmadinejad on Holocaust but Stresses Loyalty to Iran," Guardian, June 28, 2006, http://www.guardian .co.uk/iran/story/0,,1807497,00.html [7/26/06].
190. See Adam Przeworski et al., Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950 -1990 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), chap. 2, and Ian Shapiro, The State of Democratic Theory (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003), pp. 78-103.
191. They can, however, be conquered, as democratic France was in 1940.
192. Przeworski et al., Democracy and Development, pp. 106-17.
193. See Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor, Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq (New York: Pantheon Books, 2006).
194. Charles Babington, "Hawkish Democrat Calls for Pullout," Washington Post, November 18, 2005, http://www .washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/17/ AR2005111700794.html [12/14/05].
195. "War Quotes: Literary Quotes about War and Virtually Everything Else," http://quotes.prolix.nu/War/ [6/15/06].
196. Murray Waas and Brian Beutler, "What Bush Was Told about Iraq," National Journal 38, no. 9 (March 4, 2006): 40-43.
197. Joby Warrick, "Lacking Biolabs,Trailers Carried Case for War; Administration Pushed Notion of Banned Iraqi Weapons despite Evidence to Contrary,"Washington Post, April 12, 2006, p.A1.
198. See http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Senator_ Kerry_Attacks_on_dissent_cheap_0422.html [4/23/2006].
199. Jonathan Landay, "Iraq Assessments Given to Public Stripped of Dissent, Doubt; Once Classified Records Show Wariness in Intelligence Community," Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, February 15, 2004, p.A12.
200. Milbank and Pincus,"Asterisks Dot White House Argument," p.A1.
201. The Boland Amendment prohibited covert assistance for military operations in Nicaragua. See http://thomas.loc.gov/cgibin/ bdquery/z?d098:HR02968:@@@L&summ2=m&TOM:/ bss/d098query.html [6/16/06].
202. See John Gaddis, Strategies of Containment (New York: Oxford University Press, 1982), pp. 272-306.
203. See Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., "Bush's Thousand Days," Washington Post,April 24, 2006, p.A17.
204. Carla Marinucci, "Kerry Slams Bush on Terror, Democrat Says He'd Send 40,000 More Troops Overseas," San Francisco Chronicle, February 28, 2004, http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/ article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/02/28/DemocratS.TMP [6/20/06].
205. By 1968 President Johnson had ended up with almost half a million American troops in Vietnam trying unsuccessfully to "finish the job" that President Kennedy had begun with 3,500 troops in 1965. Gaddis, Strategies of Containment, p. 246.
206. For an account of the Democratic Leadership Council and its adoption of "triangulation," see Michael Graetz and Ian Shapiro, Death by a Thousand Cuts:The Fight over Taxing Inherited Wealth (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005), pp. 262-64.
207. The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996, http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/ query/z?c104:H.R.3734.ENR:htm [11/13/05].
208. The story of how this happened is told in Graetz and Shapiro, Death by a Thousand Cuts.
209. For a lucid account of this history, see Andrew Bacevich, The New American Militarism: How Americans Are Seduced by War (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005), pp. 69-174.
210. The exception might be said to be the Bush administration's failed Social Security reform at the start of the second term. But the credit for this goes more to the AARP than to Democrats on Capitol Hill.
211. See Jane Mayer,"Outsourcing Torture," New Yorker, Feb- ruary 14, 2005, and Karen DeYoung,"U.S.Toughens Warnings to Syria on Iraq, Other Issues,"Washington Post,April 15, 2003.
212. H.J. Res 114, 107th Cong., 2nd sess., October 11, 2002, http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d107:HJ00114: @@@L&summ2=m& [11/13/05].