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Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA Some advocates of scenario planning and related forecasting techniques directed at challenging decision makers' underlying assumptions maintain that expertise-based intuition, informed by processes akin to the notions of RPD and deep smarts, is a vital ingredient in the construction of plausible alternative frames for managing in times of risk and uncertainty. Viewed from this perspective, the fast, unconscious pattern recognition associated with RPD and deep smarts has a generative function in that it enables experienced decision makers to aggregate information that appears fragmented to the novice into meaningful patterns which facilitates not only recognition but also forward projection into uncertain futures. See, for example
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Leonard D., and Swap W. Deep Smarts: How to Cultivate and Transfer Enduring Business Wisdom (2005), Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA Some advocates of scenario planning and related forecasting techniques directed at challenging decision makers' underlying assumptions maintain that expertise-based intuition, informed by processes akin to the notions of RPD and deep smarts, is a vital ingredient in the construction of plausible alternative frames for managing in times of risk and uncertainty. Viewed from this perspective, the fast, unconscious pattern recognition associated with RPD and deep smarts has a generative function in that it enables experienced decision makers to aggregate information that appears fragmented to the novice into meaningful patterns which facilitates not only recognition but also forward projection into uncertain futures. See, for example
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For further critical assessments of progress in respect of NDM and work on fast and frugal heuristics see:. Stroebe W., and Hewstone M. (Eds), Wiley, Chichester
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For further critical assessments of progress in respect of NDM and work on fast and frugal heuristics see:. Gigerenzer G. How to make cognitive illusions disappear: beyond heuristics and biases. In: Stroebe W., and Hewstone M. (Eds). The European Review of Social Psychology Vol. 2 (1991), Wiley, Chichester 83-115
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Not surprisingly, this tension concerning the relative merits and limitations of intuition as a basis of managerial decision making has been similarly played out in the realms of pedagogy. The Operational Research Society, UK, for example, markets its executive development courses on decision making on the basis that successful organizational decision makers are ones who take "bolder decisions with less gut-feel", downplaying the significance of intuition while accentuating the virtues of "advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions" (for further details visit: The Operational Research Society website at: - accessed 19th November 2008 at 13:29 and 25 seconds)
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Not surprisingly, this tension concerning the relative merits and limitations of intuition as a basis of managerial decision making has been similarly played out in the realms of pedagogy. The Operational Research Society, UK, for example, markets its executive development courses on decision making on the basis that successful organizational decision makers are ones who take "bolder decisions with less gut-feel", downplaying the significance of intuition while accentuating the virtues of "advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions" (for further details visit: The Operational Research Society website at:. http://www.theorsociety.com/science_of_better/htdocs/prospect/or_executi ve_guide.pdf/ - accessed 19th November 2008 at 13:29 and 25 seconds)
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Conversely, we know of at least one leading business school whose internationally-recognised MBA programme is designed: "to look beyond business processes and techniques to emphasise self-awareness, intuition, cross-cultural sensitivity and entrepreneurship skills as well as a socially responsible and ethical approach to business and management": - accessed 15th November 2008 at 11:43 and 47 seconds)
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Conversely, we know of at least one leading business school whose internationally-recognised MBA programme is designed: "to look beyond business processes and techniques to emphasise self-awareness, intuition, cross-cultural sensitivity and entrepreneurship skills as well as a socially responsible and ethical approach to business and management":. http://www.bath.ac.uk/management/courses/mba/ - accessed 15th November 2008 at 11:43 and 47 seconds)
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See Hayes and Allinson (1994) 53-71.
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Candidate instruments for these purposes include the Rational Experiential Inventory (REI) developed by Epstein and colleagues, the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation (PID) scales developed by Betsch, and the scales devised by Anthony and Daake for the assessment of analytic and intuitive processing. The Cognitive Style Index (CSI), developed by Allinson and Hayes, is also potentially of value in this context, with the proviso that the scoring procedure is adapted in line with dual-process theories of cognition. For further details of these instruments see: W. P. Anthony and D. Daake, Measurement of Analysis and Tacit Knowledge in Decision Making (Unpublished working paper), Florida State University (1994);
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Candidate instruments for these purposes include the Rational Experiential Inventory (REI) developed by Epstein and colleagues, the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation (PID) scales developed by Betsch, and the scales devised by Anthony and Daake for the assessment of analytic and intuitive processing. The Cognitive Style Index (CSI), developed by Allinson and Hayes, is also potentially of value in this context, with the proviso that the scoring procedure is adapted in line with dual-process theories of cognition. For further details of these instruments see: W. P. Anthony and D. Daake, Measurement of Analysis and Tacit Knowledge in Decision Making (Unpublished working paper), Florida State University (1994);
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99
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Lant T.K., and Shapira Z. (Eds), Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, New York
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Bennett R.H., and Anthony W.P. Understanding the role of intuition-tacit knowledge and analysis-explicit knowledge in bank board deliberations. In: Lant T.K., and Shapira Z. (Eds). Organizational Cognition: Computation and interpretation (2001), Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, New York
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100
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Epstein et al, 1996 390-405
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Epstein et al. (1996) 390-405
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102
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Hodgkinson G.P., and Sadler-Smith E. Complex or unitary? A critique and empirical re-assessment of the Allinson-Hayes Cognitive Style Index. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology 76 (2003) 243-268
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Sadler-Smith, E.2
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Plessner H., Betsch C., and Betsch T. (Eds), Lawrence Earlbaum Associates, New York
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Betsch C. Chronic preferences for intuition and deliberation in decision making: lessons learned about intuition from an individual differences approach. In: Plessner H., Betsch C., and Betsch T. (Eds). Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making (2008), Lawrence Earlbaum Associates, New York 231-248
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Given that these instruments rely on self-report procedures, when used in isolation they are ultimately of questionable value as a basis for determining the contribution of information processing styles and strategies to task performance. For this reason, Hodgkinson et al. (2008) have advocated the use of laboratory tasks designed to induce variously analytic and intuitive strategies. When used in conjunction with other methods, such as the aforementioned self-report measures of cognitive strategies and styles, and/or cognitive task analysis procedures and related cognitive mapping techniques, laboratory tasks provide a potentially powerful means for determining the validity of self-based knowledge. In a particularly exciting development, Lieberman and his colleagues have used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in conjunction with reasoning tasks. See
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Given that these instruments rely on self-report procedures, when used in isolation they are ultimately of questionable value as a basis for determining the contribution of information processing styles and strategies to task performance. For this reason, Hodgkinson et al. (2008) have advocated the use of laboratory tasks designed to induce variously analytic and intuitive strategies. When used in conjunction with other methods, such as the aforementioned self-report measures of cognitive strategies and styles, and/or cognitive task analysis procedures and related cognitive mapping techniques, laboratory tasks provide a potentially powerful means for determining the validity of self-based knowledge. In a particularly exciting development, Lieberman and his colleagues have used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in conjunction with reasoning tasks. See. Lieberman M.D., Jarcho J.M., and Satpute A.B. Evidence-based and intuition-based self-knowledge: an fMRI study. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 87 (2004) 421-435
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(2004)
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
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Lieberman, M.D.1
Jarcho, J.M.2
Satpute, A.B.3
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Hodgkinson and Clarke (2007) 243-255.
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Hodgkinson and Clarke (2007) 243-255.
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In a further study, Sadler-Smith and Shefy reported beneficial outcomes in terms of heightening managers' understanding of the conditions necessary for intuitions to arise, and an enhanced awareness of the intuitive process itself and its associated outcomes, including a sense of perspective, self-confidence and inter- and intra-personal sensitivity and meta-cognition. See
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In a further study, Sadler-Smith and Shefy reported beneficial outcomes in terms of heightening managers' understanding of the conditions necessary for intuitions to arise, and an enhanced awareness of the intuitive process itself and its associated outcomes, including a sense of perspective, self-confidence and inter- and intra-personal sensitivity and meta-cognition. See. Sadler-Smith E., and Shefy E. Developing intuitive awareness in management education. Academy of Management Learning and Education 6 (2007) 186-205
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See also. Crossan M.M., Lane H.W., and White R.E. An organizational learning framework: from intuition to institution. Academy of Management Review 24 (1999) 522-537
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Works supporting intuition as a precursor to creativity include. Bastick T. Intuition: How We Think and Act (1982), Wiley, New York
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Claxton1
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Hodgkinson and Sparrow (2002).
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Miller and Ireland (2005) 19-30.
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In taking this line of inquiry forward, researchers, educators and managers should heed the timely warning of Michael Gazzaniga 2006, p. 66, The hype about neuroscience we're now seeing has happened before, with the original left brain/right brain research, which I helped pioneer. Our work got hugely distorted in the popular press, and it was impossible to find hard data for most of the claims that were being made. The failure to live up to the hype arguably obscured the real advances we did make, no one gains from a pseudoscientific approach to business, least of all managers. While I understand the appeal of bringing scientific rigour to this area of management, the quest for certainty could well devalue the intuition that managers traditionally rely on. In the end, investors pay managers to exercise good judgment, not to read scanner printouts. The key to avoiding this pitfall is through the adoption of a social cognitive neuroscience approach, which, requires
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In taking this line of inquiry forward, researchers, educators and managers should heed the timely warning of Michael Gazzaniga (2006, p. 66): "The hype about neuroscience we're now seeing has happened before, with the original left brain/right brain research, which I helped pioneer. Our work got hugely distorted in the popular press, and it was impossible to find hard data for most of the claims that were being made. The failure to live up to the hype arguably obscured the real advances we did make.... no one gains from a pseudoscientific approach to business, least of all managers. While I understand the appeal of bringing scientific rigour to this area of management, the quest for certainty could well devalue the intuition that managers traditionally rely on. In the end, investors pay managers to exercise good judgment, not to read scanner printouts." The key to avoiding this pitfall is through the adoption of a social cognitive neuroscience approach, which, "requires the insights from each of the social [and organizational], cognitive and neuroscience levels of analysis" (Lieberman, 2000, p. 127). As observed by Hodgkinson and Healey (2008, p. 403), this approach holds considerable promise as a basis for enriching understanding of a variety of non-conscious cognitive and affective processes in organizations, beyond intuition per se. See Hodgkinson and Healey (2008) 387-417
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In 1955, Cronbach and Meehl argued that a nomological net surrounding a construct must exist if the construct is to be validated. With a fairly new construct (such as intuition) there may only be a few specifiable connections to other constructs, but as intuition research proceeds links to other constructs will become more and better established and eventually consolidated into an identifiable net of associations. See
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In 1955, Cronbach and Meehl argued that a nomological net surrounding a construct must exist if the construct is to be validated. With a fairly new construct (such as intuition) there may only be a few specifiable connections to other constructs, but as intuition research proceeds links to other constructs will become more and better established and eventually consolidated into an identifiable net of associations. See. Cronbach L.J., and Meehl P.E. Construct validity in psychological tests. Psychological Bulletin 52 (1955) 281-302
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