Contrasting climate change in the two polar regions

Polar Research

Volumn 28, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 146-164

  Turner, John ^a   Overland, Jim ^b  

^a BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY   (United Kingdom)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Annular modes; Antarctic; Arctic; Climate change; Ozone hole

Indexed keywords

ALBEDO; ATMOSPHERE-ICE-OCEAN SYSTEM; CLIMATE CHANGE; COOLING; GLOBAL WARMING; GROWTH RATE; OZONE DEPLETION; PERMAFROST; POLAR REGION; SEA ICE; SNOW COVER; SOLAR RADIATION;

ANTARCTIC PENINSULA; ANTARCTICA; ARCTIC OCEAN; EAST ANTARCTICA; SOUTHERN OCEAN; WEST ANTARCTICA;

EID: 68249144450     PISSN: 08000395     EISSN: 17518369     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-8369.2009.00128.x     Document Type: Article

References (102)

1. Abdul A.O. & Burn D.H. 2006. Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin. Journal of Hydrology 319, 282-294.
2. Aoki S. 2002. Coherent sea level response to the Antarctic Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 29, article no. 1950, doi: 10.1029/ 2002GL015733.
3. Arblaster J. & Meehl G.A. 2006. Contributions of external forcings to Southern Annular Mode trends. Journal of Climate 19, 2896-2905.
4. Baldwin M.P. 2001. Annular modes in global daily surface pressure. Geophysical Research Letters 28, 4115-4118.
5. Box J.E., Bromwich D.H., Veenhuis B.A., Bai L.S., Stroeve J.C., Rogers J.C., Steffen K., Haran T. & Wang S.H. 2006. Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variability (1988-2004) from calibrated polar MM5 output. Journal of Climate 19, 2783-2800.
6. Bracegirdle T.J., Connolley W.M. & Turner J. 2008. Antarctic climate change over the twenty first century. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 113, D03103, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008933.
7. Cappelen J. 2004. Yearly mean temperature for selected meteorological stations in Denmark, the Faroe Islands and Greenland: 1873-2003. Technical Report 04-07. Copenhagen: Danish Meteorological Institute.
8. Chapman W.L. & Walsh J.E. 2007. A synthesis of Antarctic temperatures. Journal of Climate 20, 4096-4117.
9. Comiso J.C. & Nishio F. 2007. Trends in the sea ice cover using enhanced and compatible AMSR-E, SSM/I and SMMR data. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 113, C02S07, doi: 10.1029/2007JC004257.
10. Cook A.J., Fox A.J., Vaughan D.G. & Ferrigno J.G. 2005. Retreating glacier fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past half-century. Science 308, 541-544.
11. Davis C.H., Li Y.H., McConnell J.R., Frey M.M. & Hanna E. 2005. Snowfall-driven growth in East Antarctic ice sheet mitigates recent sea-level rise. Science 308, 1898-1901.
12. Déry S.J., Stieglitz M., McKenna E.C. & Wood E.F. 2005. Characteristics and trends of river discharge into Hudson, James, and Ungava bays, 1964-2000. Journal of Climate 18, 2540-2557.
13. Dickson R.R., Meincke J., Malmberg S.-A. & Lee A.J. 1988. The "Great Salinity Anomaly" in the northern North Atlantic 1968-1982. Progress in Oceanography 20, 103-151.
14. Farman J.C., Gardiner B.G. & Shanklin J.D. 1985. Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal CClOx/NOx interaction. Nature 315, 207-210.
15. Fetterer F., Knowles K., Meier W. & Savoie M. 2002, updated 2009. Sea Ice Index, 16 October 2007. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital media. Available at http://nsidc.org/news/press/ 2007_seaiceminimum/images/20071017_extent.png.
16. Fogt R.L. & Bromwich D.H. 2006. Decadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to the high latitude South Pacific governed by coupling with the Southern Annular Mode. Journal of Climate 19, 979-997.
17. Fyfe J.C. 2006. Southern Ocean warming due to human influence. Geophysics Research Letters 33, L19701, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027247.
18. Fyfe J.C., Boer G.J. & Flato G.M. 1999. The Arctic and Antarctic oscillations and their projected changes under global warming. Geophysics Research Letters 26, 1601-1604.
19. Fyfe J.C. & Saenko O.A. 2006. Simulated changes in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere winds and currents. Geophysics Research Letters 33, L06701, doi: 10.1029/2005GL025332.
20. Gascard J.C., Festy J., le Gogg H., Weber M., Bruemmer B., Offermann M., Doble M., Wadhams P., Forsberg R., Hanson S., Skourup H., Gerland S., Nicolaus M., Metaxin J.-P., Grangeon J., Haapala J., Rinn E., Haas C., Heygster G., Jakobson E., Palo T., Wilkinson J., Kaleschke L., Claffey K. J., Elder B. & Bottenheim J. 2008. Exploring Arctic transpolar drift during dramatic sea ice retreat. EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 89, 21-28.
21. Gille S.T. 2002. Warming of the Southern Ocean since the 1950s. Science 295, 1275-1277.
22. Gille S.T. 2003. Float observations of the Southern Ocean. Part 1. Estimating mean fields, bottom velocities and topographic steering. Journal of Physical Oceanography 33, 1167-1181.
23. Gille S.T. 2008. Decadal-scale temperature trends in the Southern Hemisphere Ocean. Journal of Climate 21, 4749-4765.
24. Gillett N.P., Stone D.A., Stott P.A., Nozawa T., Karpechko A.Y., Hegerl G.C., Wehner M.F. & Jones P.D. 2009. Attribution of polar warming to human influence. Nature Geoscience 1, 760-764.
25. Gillet N.P. & Thompson D.W.J. 2003. Simulation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 302, 273-275.
26. Hall A. & Visbeck M. 2002. Synchronous variability in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean resulting from the Annular Mode. Journal of Climate 15, 3043-3057.
27. Hanna E., Huybrechts P., Steffen K., Cappelen J., Huff R., Shuman C., Irvine-Fynn T., Wise S. & Griffiths M. 2008. Increased run-off from melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet: A response to global warming. Journal of Climate 21(2), 331-341.
28. Helsen M.M., van den Broeke M.R., van de Wal R.S.W., van De Berg W.J., Van Meijgaard E., Davis C.H., Li Y.H. & Goodwin I. 2008. Elevation changes in Antarctica mainly determined by accumulation variability. Science 320, 1626-1629.
29. Hoerling M.P., Hurrell J.W. & Xu T. 2001. Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change. Science 292, 90-92.
30. Hoerling M.P., Hurrell J.W., Xu T., Bates G.T. & Phillips A.S. 2004. Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II. Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming. Climate Dynamics 23, 23391-23405.
31. Hogg A.M., Meredith M.P., Blundell J.R. & Wilson C. 2008. Eddy heat flux in the Southern Ocean: Response to variable wind forcing. Journal of Climate 21, 608-620.
32. Hughes C.W., Woodworth P.L., Meredith M.P., Stepanov V., Whitworth T. & Pyne A.R. 2003. Coherence of Antarctic sea levels, Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode, and flow through Drake Passage. Geophysical Research Letters 30, article no. 1464, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017240.
33. Jacobs S.S., Giulivi C.F. & Mele P.A. 2002. Freshening of the Ross Sea during the late 20th century. Science 297, 386-389.
34. Johannessen O.M., Bengtsson L., Miles M.W., Kuzmina S.I., Semenov V.A., Alekseev G.V., Nagurnyi A.P., Zakharov V.F., Bobylev L.P., Pettersson L.H., Hasselmann K. & Cattle H.P. 2004. Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability (vol. 56A, p. 328, 2004). Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 56, 328-341.
35. Johanson C.M. & Fu Q. 2007. Antarctic atmospheric temperature trend patterns from satellite observations. Geophysics Research Letters 34, L12703, doi: 10.1029/2006GL029108.
36. Jones J.M. & Widmann M. 2003. Instrument- and tree-ring-based estimates of the Antarctic Oscillation. Journal of Climate 16, 3511-3524.
37. Keeley S.P.E., Gillett N.P., Thompson D.W.J., Solomon S. & Forster P.M. 2007. Is A ntarctic climate most sensitive to ozone depletion in the middle or lower stratosphere? Geophysics Research Letters 34, L22812, doi: 10.1029/2007GL031238.
38. Kidson J.W. 1999. Principal modes of Southern Hemisphere low-frequency variability obtained from NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. Journal of Climate 12, 2808-2830.
39. King J.C. 1994. Recent climate variability in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology 14, 357-369.
40. Krabill W., Abdalati W., Frederick E., Manizade S., Martin C., Sonntag J., Swift R., Thomas R., Wright W. & Yungel J. 2000. Greenland ice sheet: High-elevation balance and peripheral thinning. Science 289, 428-430.
41. Kushner P.J., Held I.M. & Delworth T.L. 2001. Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to global warming. Journal of Climate 14, 2238-2249.
42. 2 sink due to recent climate change. Science 316, 1735-1738.
43. Levitus S., Antonov J. & Boyer T. 2005. Warming of the world ocean, 1955-2003. Geophysics Research Letters 32, L02604, doi: 10.1029/ 2004GL021592.
44. Marshall G.J. 2003. Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. Journal of Climate 16, 4134-4143.
45. Marshall G.J., Orr A., van Lipzig N.P.M. & King J.C. 2006. The impact of a changing Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on Antarctic Peninsula summer temperatures. Journal of Climate 19, 5388-5404.
46. Marshall G.J., Stott P.A., Turner J., Connolley W.M., King J.C. & Lachlan-Cope T.A. 2004. Causes of exceptional atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere. Geophysics Research Letters 31, L14205, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019952.
47. Mayewski P.A. & Maasch K.A. 2006. Recent warming inconsistent with natural association between temperature and atmospheric circulation over the last 2000 years. Climate of the Past Discussions 2, 327-355.
48. Meier M.F., Dyurgerov M.B., Rick U.K., O'Neel S., Pfeffer W.T., Anderson R.S., Anderson S.P. & Glazovsky A.F. 2007. Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st century. Science 317, 1064-1067.
49. Meredith M.P. & Hogg A.M. 2006. Circumpolar response of Southern Ocean eddy activity to a change in the Southern Annular Mode. Geophysics Research Letters 33, L16608, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026499.
50. Meredith M.P. & King J.C. 2005. Climate change in the ocean to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula during the second half of the 20th century. Geophysics Research Letters 32, L19606, doi: 10.1029/ 2005GL024042.
51. Meredith M.P., Woodworth P.L., Hughes C.W. & Stepanov V. 2004. Changes in the ocean transport through Drake Passage during the 1980s and 1990s, forced by changes in the Southern Annular Mode. Geophysics Research Letters 31, L21305, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021169.
52. Min S.K., Zhang X.B. & Zwiers F. 2008. Human-induced Arctic moistening. Science 320, 518-520.
53. Monaghan A.J. & Bromwich D.H. 2008. Advances in describing recent Antarctic climate variablity. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89, 1295-1306.
54. Monaghan A.J., Bromwich D.H., Chapman W.L. & Comiso J.C. 2008. Recent variability and trends of Antarctic near-surface temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research 113, D04105, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009094.
55. Monaghan A.J., Bromwich D.H., Fogt R.L., Wang S.-H., Mayewski P.A., Dixon D.A., Ekaykin A., Frezzotti M., Goodwin I., Isaksson E., Kaspari S.D., Morgan V.I., Oerter H., van Ommen T.D., van der Veen C.J. & Wen J. 2006. Insignificant change in Antarctic snowfall since the International Geophysical Year. Science 313, 827-831.
56. Monaghan A.J., Bromwich D.H. & Schneider D.P. 2008. Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models. Geophysics Research Letters 35, L07502, doi: 10.1029/ 2007GL032630.
57. Morison J.H., Aagaard K., Falkner K.K., Hatakeyama K., Moritz R., Overland J.E., Perovich D.K., Shimada K., Steele M., Takizawa T. & Woodgate R. 2002. North Pole environmental observatory delivers early results. EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 83, 357-361.
58. Nghiem S.V., Rigor I.G., Perovich D.K., Clemente-Colon P., Weatherly J.W. & Neumann G. 2007. Rapid reduction of Arctic perennial sea ice. Geophysics Research Letters 34, L19504, doi: 10.1029/2007GL031138.
59. Oke P.R. & England M.H. 2004. Oceanic response to changes in the latitude of the Southern Hemisphere subpolar westerly winds. Journal of Climate 17, 1040-1054.
60. Overland J.E., Spillane M.C., Percival D.B., Wang M. & Mofjeld H.O. 2004. Seasonal and regional variation of pan-Arctic surface air temperature over the instrumental record. Journal of Climate 17, 23263-23282.
61. Overland J.E., Wang M. & Salo S. 2008. The recent Arctic warm period. Tellus Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 60, 589-597.
62. Perlwitz J., Pawson S., Fogt R.L., Nielsen J.E. & Neff W.D. 2008. Impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate. Geophysics Research Letters 35, L08714, doi: 10.1029/2008GL033317.
63. Peterson B.J., Holmes R.M., McClelland J.W., Vorosmarty C.J., Lammers R.B., Shiklomanov A.I., Shiklomanov I.A. & Rahmstorf S. 2008. Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Science 298, 2171-2173.
64. Pezza A.B., Durrant T., Simmonds I. & Smith I. 2008. Southern Hemisphere synoptic behavior in extreme phases of SAM, ENSO, sea ice extent and southern Australia rainfall. Journal of Climate 21, 5566-5584.
65. Quadrelli R. & Wallace J.M. 2002. Dependence of the structure of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode on the polarity of ENSO. Geophysical Research Letters 29, 2132-2135.
66. Randel W.J. & Wu F. 1999. Cooling of the Arctic and Antarctic polar stratospheres due to ozone depletion. Journal of Climate 12, 1467-1479.
67. Rignot E.J. 1998. Fast recession of a West Antarctic glacier. Science 281, 549-551.
68. Rignot E., Bamber J.L., van den Broeke M.R., Davis C., Li Y.H., van de Berg W.J. & van Meijgaard E. 2008. Recent Antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling. Nature Geoscience 1, 106-110.
69. Rintoul S.R. 2007. Rapid freshening of Antarctic Bottom Water formed in the Indian and Pacific oceans. Geophysics Research Letters 34, L06606, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028550.
70. Schweiger A., Zhang J., Lindsay R.W. & Steele M. 2008. Did unusually sunny skies help drive the record sea ice minimum? Geophysics Research Letters 35, L10503, doi: 10.1029/2008GL033463.
71. Serreze M.C., Walsh J.E., Chapin F.S., Osterkamp T., Dyurgerov M., Romanovsky V.E., Oechel W., Morison J. & Barry R.G. 2000. Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Climate Change 46, 159-207.
72. Sexton D.M.H. 2001. The effect of stratospheric ozone depletion on the phase of the Antarctic Oscillation. Geophysics Research Letters 28, 3697-3700.
73. Shimada K., Komashida T., Itoh M., Nishino S., Carmack E., McLaughlin F.A., Zimmermann S. & Proshutinsky A. 2006. Pacific Ocean inflow: influence on catastrophic reduction of sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Geophysics Research Letters 33, L08605, doi: 10.1029/2005GL025624.
74. Simmonds I. 2003. Modes of atmospheric variability over the Southern Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 108, article no. 8078, doi: 10.1029/2000JC000542.
75. Simmonds I., Burke C. & Keay K. 2008. Arctic climate change as manifest in cyclone behavior. Journal of Climate 21, 5777-5796.
76. Simmonds I. & Jacka T.H. 1995. Relationships between the interannual variability of Antarctic sea ice and the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate 8, 637-647.
77. Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M., Chen Z., Marquis M., Averyt K.B., Tignor M. & Miller H.L. Jr. (eds.) 2007. Climate change 2007. The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
78. Stammerjohn S.E., Martinson D.G., Smith R.C. & Iannuzzi R.A. 2008. Sea ice in the western Antarctic Peninsula region: Spatio-temporal variability from ecological and climate change perspectives. Deep-Sea Research Part II 55, 2041-2058.
79. Stammerjohn S.E., Martinson D.G., Smith R.C., Yuan X. & Rind D. 2008. Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode variability. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 113, C03S90, doi: 10.1029/2007JC004269.
80. Steele M. & Boyd T. 1998. Retreat of the cold halocline layer in the Arctic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 103, 10419-10435.
81. Steele M., Ermold W. & Zhang J. 2008. Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years. Geophysics Research Letters 35, L02614, doi: 10.1029/2007GL031651.
82. Steig E.J., Schneider D.P., Rutherford S.D., Mann M.E., Comiso J.C. & Shindell D.T. 2009. Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature 457, 459-462.
83. Stone D.A., Weaver A.J. & Stouffer R.J. 2001. Projection of climate change onto modes of atmospheric variability. Journal of Climate 14, 3551-3565.
84. Stroeve J., Holland M.M., Meier W., Scambos T. & Serreze M.C. 2007. Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophysics Research Letters 34, L09501, doi: 10.1029/2007GL029703.
85. Stroeve J., Serreze M.C., Drobot S., Gearheard S., Holland M., Maslanik J., Meier W. & Scambos T. 2008. Arctic sea ice extent plummets in 2007. EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 89, 13.
86. Thoma M., Jenkins A., Holland D. & Jacobs S. 2008. Modelling Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions on the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L18602, doi: 10.1029/ 2008GL034939.
87. Thomas E.R., Marshall G.J. & McConnell J.R. 2008. A doubling in snow accumulation in the western Antarctic Peninsula since 1850. Geophysics Research Letters 35, L01706, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032529.
88. Thompson D.W.J. & Solomon S. 2002. Interpretation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 296, 895-899.
89. Thompson D.W.J. & Wallace J.M. 2000. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I. Month-to-month variability. Journal of Climate 13, 1000-1016.
90. Turner J. 2004. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Antarctica. International Journal of Climatology 24, 1-31.
91. Turner J., Colwell S.R., Marshall G.J., Lachlan-Cope T.A., Carleton A.M., Jones P.D., Lagun V., Reid P.A. & Iagovkina S. 2005. Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. International Journal of Climatology 25, 279-294.
92. Turner J., Comiso J.C., Marshall G.J., Lachlan-Cope T.A., Bracegirdle T.J., Maksym T., Meredith M.P., Wang Z. & Orr A. 2009. Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent. Geophysics Research Letters 36, L08502, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037524.
93. Turner J., Lachlan-Cope T.A., Colwell S.R., Marshall G.J. & Connolley W.M. 2006. Significant warming of the Antarctic winter troposphere. Science 311, 1914-1917.
94. van den Broeke M.R. & van Lipzig N.P.M. 2004. Changes in Antarctic temperature, wind, and precipitation in response to the Antarctic Oscillation. Annals of Glaciology 39, 119-126.
95. Volodin E.M. & Galin V.Y. 1999. Interpretation of winter warming on Northern Hemisphere continents in 1977-94. Journal of Climate 12, 2947-2955.
96. Walker D.P., Brandon M.A., Jenkins A., Allen J.T., Dowdeswell J.A. & Evans J. 2007. Oceanic heat transport onto the Amundsen Sea shelf through a submarine glacial trough. Geophysics Research Letters 34, L02602, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028154.
97. Wang M., Overland J.E., Kattsov V., Walsh J.E., Zhang X. & Pavlova T. 2007. Intrinsic versus forced variation in coupled climate model simulations over the Arctic during the 20th century. Journal of Climate 20, 1093-1107.
98. Yuan X. 2004. ENSO-related impacts on Antarctic sea ice: A synthesis of phenomenon and mechanisms. Antarctic Science 16, 415-425.
99. Yuan X. & Li C. 2008. Climate modes in southern high latitudes and their impacts on Antarctic sea ice. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 113, C06S91, doi: 10.1029/2006JC004067.
100. Yuan X.J. & Martinson D.G. 2000. Antarctic sea ice extent variability and its global connectivity. Journal of Climate 13, 1697-1717.
101. Zhang Y., Wallace J.M. & Battisti D.S. 1997. ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. Journal of Climate 10, 1004-1020.
102. Zhu X.J., Sun J.L.K., Liu Z.Y., Liu Q.Y. & Martin J.E. 2007. A synoptic analysis of the interannual variability of winter cyclone activity in the Aleutian low region. Journal of Climate 20, 1523-1538.