-
1
-
-
1642504592
-
AMS statement: Enhancing weather information with probability forecasts
-
AMS
-
AMS, 2002: AMS statement: Enhancing weather information with probability forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 450-452.
-
(2002)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.83
, pp. 450-452
-
-
-
2
-
-
0033368923
-
The skill of ensemble prediction systems
-
Atger, F., 1999: The skill of ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1941-1953.
-
(1999)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.127
, pp. 1941-1953
-
-
Atger, F.1
-
3
-
-
0003010182
-
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
-
Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
-
(1950)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.78
, pp. 1-3
-
-
Brier, G.W.1
-
4
-
-
12944288520
-
A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems
-
Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1076-1097.
-
(2005)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.133
, pp. 1076-1097
-
-
Buizza, R.1
Houtekamer, P.L.2
Toth, Z.3
Pellerin, G.4
Wei, M.5
Zhu, Y.6
-
5
-
-
0000518022
-
Statistical forecasts based on the National Meteorological Center's numerical weather prediction system
-
Carter, G. M., J. P. Dallavalle, and H. R. Glahn, 1989: Statistical forecasts based on the National Meteorological Center's numerical weather prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 401-412.
-
(1989)
Wea. Forecasting
, vol.4
, pp. 401-412
-
-
Carter, G.M.1
Dallavalle, J.P.2
Glahn, H.R.3
-
6
-
-
48349144383
-
Predictive model assessment for count data. University of Washington Department of Statistics
-
Tech. Rep. 518, 19 pp
-
Czado, C., T. Gneiting, and L. Held, 2007: Predictive model assessment for count data. University of Washington Department of Statistics, Tech. Rep. 518, 19 pp.
-
(2007)
-
-
Czado, C.1
Gneiting, T.2
Held, L.3
-
7
-
-
64149121071
-
-
cited 2008: Orange juice gains most in 2 months on freeze threat in Florida, Available online at
-
Day, R., cited 2008: Orange juice gains most in 2 months on freeze threat in Florida. [Available online at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7PBBc8oP6xE.]
-
-
-
Day, R.1
-
8
-
-
34848920881
-
On some aspects of the definition of initial conditions for ensemble prediction
-
Descamps, L., and O. Talagrand, 2007: On some aspects of the definition of initial conditions for ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3260-3272.
-
(2007)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.135
, pp. 3260-3272
-
-
Descamps, L.1
Talagrand, O.2
-
9
-
-
0032434899
-
Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF Ensemble
-
Eckel, F. A., and M. K. Walters, 1998: Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF Ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1132-1147.
-
(1998)
Wea. Forecasting
, vol.13
, pp. 1132-1147
-
-
Eckel, F.A.1
Walters, M.K.2
-
10
-
-
0001609731
-
Stochastic dynamic prediction
-
Epstein, E. S., 1969: Stochastic dynamic prediction. Tellus, 21, 739-759.
-
(1969)
Tellus
, vol.21
, pp. 739-759
-
-
Epstein, E.S.1
-
11
-
-
33747757367
-
Medium-range prediction of PoP and Max/Min in the era of ensemble model output. Preprints
-
Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc
-
Erickson, M. C., 1996: Medium-range prediction of PoP and Max/Min in the era of ensemble model output. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J35-J38.
-
(1996)
15th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting
-
-
Erickson, M.C.1
-
12
-
-
0000263365
-
On stochastic dynamic prediction. Part I: The energetics of uncertainty and the question of closure
-
Fleming, R. J., 1971a: On stochastic dynamic prediction. Part I: The energetics of uncertainty and the question of closure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 851-872.
-
(1971)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.99
, pp. 851-872
-
-
Fleming, R.J.1
-
13
-
-
0012927654
-
On stochastic dynamic prediction. Part II: Predictability and utility
-
Fleming, R. J., 1971b: On stochastic dynamic prediction. Part II: Predictability and utility. Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 927-938.
-
(1971)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.99
, pp. 927-938
-
-
Fleming, R.J.1
-
14
-
-
0342302858
-
Statistical weather forecasting
-
A. H. Murphy and R. W. Katz, Eds, Westview Press
-
Glahn, H. R., 1985: Statistical weather forecasting. Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences, A. H. Murphy and R. W. Katz, Eds., Westview Press, 289-335.
-
(1985)
Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences
, pp. 289-335
-
-
Glahn, H.R.1
-
16
-
-
64149126647
-
-
Glahn, H. R., and D. A. Lowry, 1969: An operational method for objectively forecasting probability of precipitation. ESSA Tech. Memo. WBTM TDL 27, Environmental Science Services Administration, 24 pp.
-
Glahn, H. R., and D. A. Lowry, 1969: An operational method for objectively forecasting probability of precipitation. ESSA Tech. Memo. WBTM TDL 27, Environmental Science Services Administration, 24 pp.
-
-
-
-
17
-
-
0037293464
-
The new digital forecast database of the National Weather Service
-
Glahn, H. R., and D. P. Ruth, 2003: The new digital forecast database of the National Weather Service. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 195-201.
-
(2003)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.84
, pp. 195-201
-
-
Glahn, H.R.1
Ruth, D.P.2
-
18
-
-
64149091728
-
-
Glahn, H. R., K. Gilbert, R. Cosgrove, D. P. Ruth, and K. Sheets, 2008: Gridded MOS guidance in the National Digital Guidance Database. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Probability and Statistics, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 11.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ ams/pdfpapers/132526.pdf.]
-
Glahn, H. R., K. Gilbert, R. Cosgrove, D. P. Ruth, and K. Sheets, 2008: Gridded MOS guidance in the National Digital Guidance Database. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Probability and Statistics, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 11.3. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ ams/pdfpapers/132526.pdf.]
-
-
-
-
19
-
-
20444484849
-
Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation
-
Gneiting, T., A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld III, and T. Goldman, 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1098-1118.
-
(2005)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.133
, pp. 1098-1118
-
-
Gneiting, T.1
Raftery, A.E.2
Westveld III, A.H.3
Goldman, T.4
-
20
-
-
0035270069
-
Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts
-
Hamill, T. M., 2001: Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 550-560.
-
(2001)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.129
, pp. 550-560
-
-
Hamill, T.M.1
-
21
-
-
0002897679
-
Verification of Eta-RSM shortrange ensemble forecasts
-
Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM shortrange ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312-1327.
-
(1997)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.125
, pp. 1312-1327
-
-
Hamill, T.M.1
Colucci, S.J.2
-
22
-
-
0001104165
-
Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts
-
Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724.
-
(1998)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.126
, pp. 711-724
-
-
Hamill, T.M.1
Colucci, S.J.2
-
23
-
-
32544435618
-
Reforecasts: An important dataset for improving weather predictions
-
Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and S. L. Mullen, 2006: Reforecasts: An important dataset for improving weather predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 33-46.
-
(2006)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.87
, pp. 33-46
-
-
Hamill, T.M.1
Whitaker, J.S.2
Mullen, S.L.3
-
24
-
-
0034292468
-
Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for ensemble prediction systems
-
Hersbach, H., 2000: Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for ensemble prediction systems. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 559-570.
-
(2000)
Wea. Forecasting
, vol.15
, pp. 559-570
-
-
Hersbach, H.1
-
25
-
-
0034351740
-
Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate
-
Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, Z. Zhang, T. LaRow, D. Bachiochi, E. Williford, S. Gadgil, and S. Surendran, 2000: Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J. Climate, 13, 4196-4216.
-
(2000)
J. Climate
, vol.13
, pp. 4196-4216
-
-
Krishnamurti, T.N.1
Kishtawal, C.M.2
Zhang, Z.3
LaRow, T.4
Bachiochi, D.5
Williford, E.6
Gadgil, S.7
Surendran, S.8
-
26
-
-
0038508750
-
Improved skill for the anomaly correlation of geopotential heights at 500 hPa
-
Krishnamurti, T. N., and Coauthors, 2003: Improved skill for the anomaly correlation of geopotential heights at 500 hPa. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1082-1102.
-
(2003)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.131
, pp. 1082-1102
-
-
Krishnamurti, T.N.1
-
27
-
-
0000630257
-
Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
-
Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
-
(1974)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.102
, pp. 409-418
-
-
Leith, C.E.1
-
28
-
-
34250908277
-
A square root method of selecting a minimum set of variables in multiple regression: I. The method
-
Lubin, A., and A. Summerfield, 1951: A square root method of selecting a minimum set of variables in multiple regression: I. The method. Psychometrika, 16, 271-284.
-
(1951)
Psychometrika
, vol.16
, pp. 271-284
-
-
Lubin, A.1
Summerfield, A.2
-
29
-
-
0016961866
-
Scoring rules for continuous probability distributions
-
Matheson, J. E., and R. L. Winkler, 1976: Scoring rules for continuous probability distributions. Manage. Sci., 22, 1087-1096.
-
(1976)
Manage. Sci
, vol.22
, pp. 1087-1096
-
-
Matheson, J.E.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
30
-
-
64149131283
-
-
Miller, R. G., 1964: Regression estimation of event probabilities. The Travelers Research Center, Inc., Hartford, CT, U.S. Weather Bureau Contract Cwb-10704, Tech. Rep. 4, 153 pp.
-
Miller, R. G., 1964: Regression estimation of event probabilities. The Travelers Research Center, Inc., Hartford, CT, U.S. Weather Bureau Contract Cwb-10704, Tech. Rep. 4, 153 pp.
-
-
-
-
32
-
-
0002454360
-
Forecast evaluation
-
A. H. Murphy and R. W. Katz, Eds, Westview Press
-
Murphy, A. H., and H. Dann, 1985: Forecast evaluation. Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences, A. H. Murphy and R. W. Katz, Eds., Westview Press, 379-437.
-
(1985)
Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences
, pp. 379-437
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
Dann, H.2
-
33
-
-
33846797511
-
-
National Research Council, The National Academies Press, 112 pp
-
National Research Council, 2006: Completing the Forecast. The National Academies Press, 112 pp.
-
(2006)
Completing the Forecast
-
-
-
34
-
-
64149099223
-
-
National Weather Service, 1985: Automated daytime maximum, nighttime minimum, 3 hourly surface temperature, and 3-hourly surface dew-point guidance. NWS Tech. Procedures Bull. 356, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD, 14 pp.
-
National Weather Service, 1985: Automated daytime maximum, nighttime minimum, 3 hourly surface temperature, and 3-hourly surface dew-point guidance. NWS Tech. Procedures Bull. 356, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD, 14 pp.
-
-
-
-
36
-
-
20444497873
-
Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles
-
Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski, 2005: Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1155-1174.
-
(2005)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.133
, pp. 1155-1174
-
-
Raftery, A.E.1
Gneiting, T.2
Balabdaoui, F.3
Polakowski, M.4
-
37
-
-
64149105846
-
On producing categorical forecasts from operational probability forecasts of thunderstorms and severe local storms. Preprints
-
Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc
-
Reap, R. M., and D. S. Foster, 1979: On producing categorical forecasts from operational probability forecasts of thunderstorms and severe local storms. Preprints, 11th Conf. of Severe Local Storms, Omaha, NE, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 619-624.
-
(1979)
11th Conf. of Severe Local Storms
, pp. 619-624
-
-
Reap, R.M.1
Foster, D.S.2
-
38
-
-
0037262706
-
Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles
-
Roulston, M. S., and L. A. Smith, 2003: Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles. Tellus, 55A, 16-30.
-
(2003)
Tellus
, vol.55 A
, pp. 16-30
-
-
Roulston, M.S.1
Smith, L.A.2
-
39
-
-
0242415326
-
Short-range ensemble predictions of 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature over New England
-
Stensrud, D. J., and N. Yussouf, 2003: Short-range ensemble predictions of 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature over New England. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2510-2524.
-
(2003)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.131
, pp. 2510-2524
-
-
Stensrud, D.J.1
Yussouf, N.2
-
40
-
-
0001392278
-
On the operational deficiencies in categorical weather forecasts
-
Thompson, J. C., 1952: On the operational deficiencies in categorical weather forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 33, 223-226.
-
(1952)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.33
, pp. 223-226
-
-
Thompson, J.C.1
-
41
-
-
0000593274
-
Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
-
Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
-
(1997)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.125
, pp. 3297-3319
-
-
Toth, Z.1
Kalnay, E.2
-
42
-
-
64149089731
-
Uncertainty and the weather
-
Tribus, M., 1970: Uncertainty and the weather. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 51, 4-10.
-
(1970)
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc
, vol.51
, pp. 4-10
-
-
Tribus, M.1
-
43
-
-
0006646641
-
A method to estimate the Continuous Ranked Probability Score. Preprints
-
Virginia Beach, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc
-
Unger, D. A., 1985: A method to estimate the Continuous Ranked Probability Score. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Virginia Beach, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 206-213.
-
(1985)
Ninth Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
, pp. 206-213
-
-
Unger, D.A.1
-
44
-
-
27644443229
-
Improvement of ensemble reliability with a new dressing kernel
-
Wang, X., and C. H. Bishop, 2005: Improvement of ensemble reliability with a new dressing kernel. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 965-986.
-
(2005)
Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc
, vol.131
, pp. 965-986
-
-
Wang, X.1
Bishop, C.H.2
-
45
-
-
64149120028
-
Before freeze comes frenzy
-
3 January
-
Wesner, J., 2008: Before freeze comes frenzy. St. Petersburg Times, 3 January 2008, 124.
-
(2008)
St. Petersburg Times
, pp. 124
-
-
Wesner, J.1
-
46
-
-
33747806974
-
Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting
-
Wilks, D. S., 2006a: Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting. Meteor. Appl., 13, 243-256.
-
(2006)
Meteor. Appl
, vol.13
, pp. 243-256
-
-
Wilks, D.S.1
-
48
-
-
34447309549
-
Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods using GFS reforecasts
-
Wilks, D. S., and T. M. Hamill, 2007: Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods using GFS reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2379-2390.
-
(2007)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.135
, pp. 2379-2390
-
-
Wilks, D.S.1
Hamill, T.M.2
-
49
-
-
34248352225
-
Calibrated surface temperature forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System using Bayesian model averaging
-
Wilson, L. J., S. Beauregard, A. E. Raftery, and R. Verret, 2007: Calibrated surface temperature forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System using Bayesian model averaging. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1364-1385.
-
(2007)
Mon. Wea. Rev
, vol.135
, pp. 1364-1385
-
-
Wilson, L.J.1
Beauregard, S.2
Raftery, A.E.3
Verret, R.4
-
50
-
-
18544381247
-
A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts
-
Yun, W. T., L. Stefanova, A. K. Mitra, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, W. Dewar, and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2005: A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts. Tellus, 57A, 280-289.
-
(2005)
Tellus
, vol.57 A
, pp. 280-289
-
-
Yun, W.T.1
Stefanova, L.2
Mitra, A.K.3
Vijaya Kumar, T.S.V.4
Dewar, W.5
Krishnamurti, T.N.6
|