Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 13, Issue 4, 1998, Pages 1132-1147

  Eckel, F Anthony ^a,b   Walters, Michael K ^a  

^a AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^b NONE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CALIBRATION; CLIMATOLOGY; SYSTEMATIC ERRORS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CALIBRATION TECHNIQUES;

PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PREDICTION; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0032434899     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<1132:CPQPFB>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (15)

1. Anderson, J. L., 1996: A method of producing probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Climate, 9, 1518-1530.
2. Baldwin, M., cited 1997: Quantitative precipitation forecast verification documentation. [Available online at http:// nic.fb4.noaa.gov:8000/research/pptmethod.html.]
3. Barnes, S. L., 1964: A technique for maximizing details in numerical weather map analysis. J. Appl. Meteor., 3, 396-409.
4. Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312-1327.
5. _, and _, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724.
6. Islam, S., R. L. Bras, and K. A. Emanuel, 1993: Predictability of mesoscale rainfall in the Tropics. J. Appl. Meteor., 32, 297-310.
7. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
8. _, 1969: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289-307.
9. Molteni, F. R., Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
10. NCEP, cited 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP. [Available online at http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/ens/info/ens_detbak.html.]
11. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
12. _, Y. Zhu, E. Kalnay, and S. Tracton, 1998: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the NCEP global ensemble. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 286-289.
13. Tracton, M. S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 379-398.
14. Wilks, D. S., 1990: Maximum likelihood estimation for the gamma distribution using data containing zeros. J Climate, 3, 1495-1501.
15. _, 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.