The skill of ensemble prediction systems

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 127, Issue 9, 1999, Pages 1941-1953

  Atger, Frédéric ^a,b  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^b MÉTÉO FRANCE   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING METHOD; PREDICTION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0033368923     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1941:TSOEPS>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
2. Buizza, R., 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction, and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 99-119.
3. _, and T. N. Palmer, 1998: Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2503-2518.
4. _, T. Petroliagis, T. N. Palmer, J. Barkmeijer, M. Hamrud, A. Hollingsworth, A. Simmons, and N. Wedi, 1998: Impact of model resolution and ensemble size on the performance of an ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 1935-1960.
5. Courtier, P., C. Freyder, J. F. Geleyn, F. Rabier, and M. Rochas, 1991: The Arpege project at Meteo-France. Proc. Seminar on Numerical Methods in Atmospheric Models, Vol. 2, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 192-231.
6. Gibson, J. K., P. Kallberg, S. Uppala, A. Hernandez, A. Nomura, and E. Serrano, 1997: ERA description. ECMWF Re-Analysis Project Report Series, Vol. 1, 72 pp.
7. Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724.
8. Harrison, M. S. J., T. N. Palmer, D. S. Richardson, R. Buizza, and T. Petroliagis, 1995: Joint ensembles from the UKMO and ECMWF models. Proc. Seminar on Predictability, Vol. 2, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 61-120.
9. Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
10. Mason, I., 1982: A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 30, 291-303.
11. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
12. Murphy, A., 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
13. Palmer, T. N., F. Molteni, R. Mureau, R. Buizza, P. Chapelet, and J. Tribbia, 1993: Ensemble prediction. Proc. Seminar on Validation of Models over Europe, Vol. 1, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 21-66.
14. Rousseau, D., and P. Chapelet, 1985: A test of the Monte-Carlo method using the WMO/CAS Intercomparison Project data. Report of the second session of the CAS working group on short- and medium-range weather prediction research, WMO/TD 91, PSMP Rep. Series 18, 114 pp.
15. Simmons, A. J., D. M. Burridge, M. Jarraud, C. Girard, and W. Wergen, 1989: The ECMWF medium-range prediction models development of the numerical formulations and the impact of increased resolution. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 40, 28-60.
16. Stanski, H. R., L. J. Wilson, and W. R. Burrows, 1989: Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. WMO/WWW Tech. Rep. 8, 114 pp.
17. Talagrand, O., R. Vautard, and B. Strauss, 1998: Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems. Proc. Seminar on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 1-26.
18. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay. 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
19. _, Y. Zhu, T. Marchok, S. Tracton, and E. Kalnay, 1998: Verification of the NCEP global ensemble forecasts. Preprints. 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 286-289.
20. Tracton, M. S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 379-398.
21. Wilson, L. J., 1995: Verification of weather element forecasts from an ensemble prediction system. Proc. Fifth Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 114-126.
22. Zhu, Y., G. Yyengar, Z. Toth, S. M. Tracton, and T Marchok, 1996: Objective evaluation of the NCEP global ensemble forecasting system. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J79-J82.
23. Ziehmann, C., 1998: Comparison of the ECMWF ensemble with an ensemble consisting of four operational models. Abstracts, Seventh Int. Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Whistler, BC, Canada, ECMWF, 147.