메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 23, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 55-72

The effects of wording on the understanding and use of uncertainty information in a threshold forecasting decision

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 60149110324     PISSN: 08884080     EISSN: 10990720     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/acp.1449     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (46)

References (29)
  • 1
    • 0030438938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations
    • Anderson, O. (1996). A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. Journal of Climate, 9, 1518-1530.
    • (1996) Journal of Climate , vol.9 , pp. 1518-1530
    • Anderson, O.1
  • 2
    • 0000093045 scopus 로고
    • Linguistic processes in deductive reasoning
    • Clark, H. H. (1969). Linguistic processes in deductive reasoning. Psychological Review, 76, 387-404.
    • (1969) Psychological Review , vol.76 , pp. 387-404
    • Clark, H.H.1
  • 3
    • 0000851111 scopus 로고
    • On the process of comparing sentences against pictures
    • Clark, H. H., & Chase, W. G. (1972). On the process of comparing sentences against pictures. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 472-517.
    • (1972) Cognitive Psychology , vol.3 , pp. 472-517
    • Clark, H.H.1    Chase, W.G.2
  • 4
    • 0042123195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature of judgment under uncertainty
    • Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature of judgment under uncertainty. Cognition, 58, 1-78.
    • (1996) Cognition , vol.58 , pp. 1-78
    • Cosmides, L.1    Tooby, J.2
  • 5
    • 0029704324 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of mental representation for same and mixed compatibility assignments
    • Dornier, L. A., & Reeve, T. G. (1996). Evaluation of mental representation for same and mixed compatibility assignments. Perception & Psychophysics, 58, 47-55.
    • (1996) Perception & Psychophysics , vol.58 , pp. 47-55
    • Dornier, L.A.1    Reeve, T.G.2
  • 6
    • 0000281610 scopus 로고
    • The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors
    • Fiedler, K. (1988). The dependence of the conjunction fallacy on subtle linguistic factors. Psychological Research, 50, 123-129.
    • (1988) Psychological Research , vol.50 , pp. 123-129
    • Fiedler, K.1
  • 7
    • 23644440946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A 30% chance of rain tomorrow: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?
    • Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., van den Broek, E., Fasolo, F., & Katsikopoulos, K. V. (2005). "A 30% chance of rain tomorrow": How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis, 25, 623-630.
    • (2005) Risk Analysis , vol.25 , pp. 623-630
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hertwig, R.2    van den Broek, E.3    Fasolo, F.4    Katsikopoulos, K.V.5
  • 8
    • 11944267218 scopus 로고
    • How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats
    • Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review, 102, 684-704.
    • (1995) Psychological Review , vol.102 , pp. 684-704
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2
  • 9
    • 26844438590 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather forecasting with ensemble methods
    • Gneiting, T., & Raftery, A. E. (2005). Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science, 310, 248-249.
    • (2005) Science , vol.310 , pp. 248-249
    • Gneiting, T.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 11
    • 0036553271 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest
    • Grimit, E. P., & Mass, C. F. (2002). Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest. Weather & Forecasting, 17, 192-205.
    • (2002) Weather & Forecasting , vol.17 , pp. 192-205
    • Grimit, E.P.1    Mass, C.F.2
  • 12
    • 22844456018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The "conjunction fallacy" revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors
    • Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (1999). The "conjunction fallacy" revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 275-305.
    • (1999) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.12 , pp. 275-305
    • Hertwig, R.1    Gigerenzer, G.2
  • 13
    • 0035487641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When are people persuaded by DNA match statistics?
    • Koehler, J. J. (2001). When are people persuaded by DNA match statistics? Law and Human Behavior, 25, 493-513.
    • (2001) Law and Human Behavior , vol.25 , pp. 493-513
    • Koehler, J.J.1
  • 14
    • 0041022383 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Kuhberger, A. (1998). The influence of framing on risky decisions: A meta-analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 75, 23-55.
    • Kuhberger, A. (1998). The influence of framing on risky decisions: A meta-analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 75, 23-55.
  • 16
    • 33751197582 scopus 로고
    • Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decision
    • Lichtenstein, S., & Slovic, P. (1971). Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decision. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 89, 46-55.
    • (1971) Journal of Experimental Psychology , vol.89 , pp. 46-55
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Slovic, P.2
  • 17
    • 0015731503 scopus 로고
    • Response induced reversals of preference in gambling: An extended replication in Las Vegas
    • Lichtenstein, S., & Slovic, P. (1973). Response induced reversals of preference in gambling: An extended replication in Las Vegas. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 101, 16-20.
    • (1973) Journal of Experimental Psychology , vol.101 , pp. 16-20
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Slovic, P.2
  • 21
    • 1842739566 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The boy who cried wolf revisited: The impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios
    • Roulston, M. S., & Smith, L. A. (2004). The boy who cried wolf revisited: The impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Weather & Forecasting, 19, 391-397.
    • (2004) Weather & Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 391-397
    • Roulston, M.S.1    Smith, L.A.2
  • 22
    • 60149094612 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Russo, J. E., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1989). Decision traps: The ten barriers to decision-making and how to overcome them. New York: Simon & Schuster. Seattle.gov - The official site of the City of Seattle. (12 October 2000). Retrieved 23 October 2000, from http://www.apastyle.org/elecsource.html
    • Russo, J. E., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1989). Decision traps: The ten barriers to decision-making and how to overcome them. New York: Simon & Schuster. Seattle.gov - The official site of the City of Seattle. (12 October 2000). Retrieved 23 October 2000, from http://www.apastyle.org/elecsource.html
  • 23
    • 0002444488 scopus 로고
    • Compatibility effects in judgment and choice
    • R. Hogarth Ed, Chicago: University of Chicago Press
    • Slovic, P., Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1990). Compatibility effects in judgment and choice. In R. Hogarth (Ed.), Insights in decision making (pp. 5-27). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    • (1990) Insights in decision making , pp. 5-27
    • Slovic, P.1    Griffin, D.2    Tversky, A.3
  • 24
    • 0034077530 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Violence risk assessment and risk communication: The effects of using actual cases, providing instruction, and employing probability versus frequency formats
    • Slovic, P., Monahan, J. D., & MacGregor, D. G. (2000). Violence risk assessment and risk communication: The effects of using actual cases, providing instruction, and employing probability versus frequency formats. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 271-296.
    • (2000) Law and Human Behavior , vol.24 , pp. 271-296
    • Slovic, P.1    Monahan, J.D.2    MacGregor, D.G.3
  • 25
    • 0006182767 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The directionality of verbal probability expressions: Effects on decisions, predictions, and probabilistic reasoning
    • Teigen, K. H., & Brun, W. (1999). The directionality of verbal probability expressions: Effects on decisions, predictions, and probabilistic reasoning. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 80, 155-190.
    • (1999) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.80 , pp. 155-190
    • Teigen, K.H.1    Brun, W.2
  • 26
    • 43249084062 scopus 로고
    • Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extension versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293-315.
    • (1983) Psychological Review , vol.90 , pp. 293-315
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 27
    • 0009916479 scopus 로고
    • From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss function
    • Weber, E. U. (1994). From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss function. Psychological Bulletin, 115, 228-242.
    • (1994) Psychological Bulletin , vol.115 , pp. 228-242
    • Weber, E.U.1
  • 28
    • 0033233105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The interpretation of "likely" depends on the context, but "70%" is 70% - right? The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty
    • Windschitl, P. D., & Weber, E. (1999). The interpretation of "likely" depends on the context, but "70%" is 70% - right? The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 25, 1514-1533.
    • (1999) Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition , vol.25 , pp. 1514-1533
    • Windschitl, P.D.1    Weber, E.2
  • 29
    • 0024672717 scopus 로고
    • Timed magnitude comparisons of numerical and nonnumerical expressions of uncertainty
    • Yaffe-Katz, A., Budescu, D. V., & Wallsten, T. S. (1985). Timed magnitude comparisons of numerical and nonnumerical expressions of uncertainty. Memory and Cognition, 17, 249-264.
    • (1985) Memory and Cognition , vol.17 , pp. 249-264
    • Yaffe-Katz, A.1    Budescu, D.V.2    Wallsten, T.S.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.