메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 23, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 575-595

Modeling the distribution of precipitation forecasts from the Canadian ensemble prediction system using Kernel density estimation

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 54749154068     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2007WAF2007023.1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (9)

References (79)
  • 1
    • 0030438938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations
    • Anderson, J. L., 1996: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Climate, 9, 1518-1530.
    • (1996) J. Climate , vol.9 , pp. 1518-1530
    • Anderson, J.L.1
  • 2
    • 0033368923 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The skill of ensemble prediction systems
    • Atger, F., 1999a: The skill of ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1941-1953.
    • (1999) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.127 , pp. 1941-1953
    • Atger, F.1
  • 3
    • 0033208526 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tubing: An alternative to clustering for the classification of ensemble forecasts
    • Atger, F., 1999b: Tubing: An alternative to clustering for the classification of ensemble forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 741-757.
    • (1999) Wea. Forecasting , vol.14 , pp. 741-757
    • Atger, F.1
  • 4
    • 0141682983 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibrations
    • Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibrations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1509-1523.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.131 , pp. 1509-1523
    • Atger, F.1
  • 5
    • 0028602325 scopus 로고
    • The new NMC mesoscale Eta Model: Description and forecast examples
    • Black, T. L., 1994: The new NMC mesoscale Eta Model: Description and forecast examples. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 265-278.
    • (1994) Wea. Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 265-278
    • Black, T.L.1
  • 8
    • 0141482354 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climatological estimates of local daily tornado probability for the United States
    • Brooks, H. E., C. A. Doswell, and M. P. Kay, 2003: Climatological estimates of local daily tornado probability for the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 626-640.
    • (2003) Wea. Forecasting , vol.18 , pp. 626-640
    • Brooks, H.E.1    Doswell, C.A.2    Kay, M.P.3
  • 9
    • 0002531176 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Buizza, R., 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 99-119.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.125 , pp. 99-119
    • Buizza, R.1
  • 10
    • 0029412335 scopus 로고
    • The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation
    • Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434-1456.
    • (1995) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.52 , pp. 1434-1456
    • Buizza, R.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 11
    • 12944288520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems
    • Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: A Comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1076-1097.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.133 , pp. 1076-1097
    • Buizza, R.1    Houtekamer, P.L.2    Toth, Z.3    Pellerin, G.4    Wei, M.5    Zhu, Y.6
  • 12
    • 0346307339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability density function estimation using gamma kernels
    • Chen, S. X., 2000: Probability density function estimation using gamma kernels. Ann. Inst. Stat. Math., 52, 471-480.
    • (2000) Ann. Inst. Stat. Math , vol.52 , pp. 471-480
    • Chen, S.X.1
  • 14
    • 0032443494 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The operational CMC/MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Part I: Design considerations and formulation
    • Côté, J. S., S. Gravel, A. Méthot, A. Patoine, M. Roch, and A. Staniforth, 1998: The operational CMC/MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Part I: Design considerations and formulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1373-1395.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.126 , pp. 1373-1395
    • Côté, J.S.1    Gravel, S.2    Méthot, A.3    Patoine, A.4    Roch, M.5    Staniforth, A.6
  • 17
    • 0017017305 scopus 로고
    • On the choice of smoothing parameters for Parzen estimators of probability density functions
    • Duin, R. P. W., 1976: On the choice of smoothing parameters for Parzen estimators of probability density functions. IEEE Trans. Comput., C-25, 1175-1179.
    • (1976) IEEE Trans. Comput , vol.C-25 , pp. 1175-1179
    • Duin, R.P.W.1
  • 18
    • 0035475022 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ability of a poor man's ensemble to predict the probability and distribution of precipitation
    • Ebert, E., 2001: Ability of a poor man's ensemble to predict the probability and distribution of precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2461-2480.
    • (2001) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.129 , pp. 2461-2480
    • Ebert, E.1
  • 19
    • 0032434899 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble
    • Eckel, F. A., and M. K. Walters, 1998: Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1132-1147.
    • (1998) Wea. Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 1132-1147
    • Eckel, F.A.1    Walters, M.K.2
  • 21
    • 18544382677 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions
    • Feddersen, H., and U. Andersen, 2005: A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions. Tellus, 57A, 398-408.
    • (2005) Tellus , vol.57 A , pp. 398-408
    • Feddersen, H.1    Andersen, U.2
  • 22
    • 54749100423 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fix, E., and J. L. Hodges Jr., 1951: Discriminatory analysis, nonparametric estimation: consistency properties. USAF School of Aviation Medicine Tech. Rep. 4, Project 21-49-004, Randolph Field, TX, 21 pp.
    • Fix, E., and J. L. Hodges Jr., 1951: Discriminatory analysis, nonparametric estimation: consistency properties. USAF School of Aviation Medicine Tech. Rep. 4, Project 21-49-004, Randolph Field, TX, 21 pp.
  • 23
    • 33746239466 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecasting from ensemble prediction systems: Improving upon the best-member method by using a different weight and dressing kernel for each member
    • Fortin, V., A.-C. Favre, and M. Said, 2006: Probabilistic forecasting from ensemble prediction systems: Improving upon the best-member method by using a different weight and dressing kernel for each member. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1349-1369.
    • (2006) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.132 , pp. 1349-1369
    • Fortin, V.1    Favre, A.-C.2    Said, M.3
  • 24
    • 0033246398 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implementation of a 3D variational data assimilation system at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Part 1: The global analysis
    • Gauthier, P., C. Charette, L. Fillion, P. Koclas, and S. Laroche, 1999: Implementation of a 3D variational data assimilation system at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Part 1: The global analysis. Atmos.-Ocean, 37, 103-156.
    • (1999) Atmos.-Ocean , vol.37 , pp. 103-156
    • Gauthier, P.1    Charette, C.2    Fillion, L.3    Koclas, P.4    Laroche, S.5
  • 25
    • 0000155686 scopus 로고
    • Extent to which least squares cross validation minimizes integrated squared error in nonparametric density estimation
    • Hall, P., and J. S. Marron, 1987: Extent to which least squares cross validation minimizes integrated squared error in nonparametric density estimation. Probab. Theory Relat. Fields, 74, 567-581.
    • (1987) Probab. Theory Relat. Fields , vol.74 , pp. 567-581
    • Hall, P.1    Marron, J.S.2
  • 26
    • 0002897679 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of Eta-RSM short-range forecasts
    • Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312-1327.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.125 , pp. 1312-1327
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Colucci, S.J.2
  • 27
    • 0001104165 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts
    • Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1998: Evaluation of Eta-RSM ensemble probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.126 , pp. 711-724
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Colucci, S.J.2
  • 28
    • 33750361341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring forecast skill: Is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?
    • Hamill, T. M., and J. Juras, 2006: Measuring forecast skill: Is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2905-2923.
    • (2006) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.132 , pp. 2905-2923
    • Hamill, T.M.1    Juras, J.2
  • 29
    • 0027086752 scopus 로고
    • The application of signal detection theory to weather forecasting behavior
    • Harvey, L. O., Jr., K. R. Hammond, C. M. Lusk, and E. F. Mross, 1992: The application of signal detection theory to weather forecasting behavior. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 863-883.
    • (1992) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.120 , pp. 863-883
    • Harvey Jr., L.O.1    Hammond, K.R.2    Lusk, C.M.3    Mross, E.F.4
  • 33
    • 0028582476 scopus 로고
    • The NMC nested regional spectral model
    • Juang, H.-M., and M. Kanamitsu, 1994: The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 3-26.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.122 , pp. 3-26
    • Juang, H.-M.1    Kanamitsu, M.2
  • 35
    • 0023469647 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting forecast skill
    • Kalnay, E., and A. Dalcher, 1987: Forecasting forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 349-356.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.115 , pp. 349-356
    • Kalnay, E.1    Dalcher, A.2
  • 36
    • 54749122042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian processor of output: A new technique for probabilistic weather forecasting. Preprints
    • San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc
    • Krzysztofowicz, R., 2002: Bayesian processor of output: A new technique for probabilistic weather forecasting. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 391-394.
    • (2002) 19th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting , pp. 391-394
    • Krzysztofowicz, R.1
  • 40
    • 0020344505 scopus 로고
    • A model for assessment of weather forecasts
    • Mason, I., 1982: A model for assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 30, 291-303.
    • (1982) Aust. Meteor. Mag , vol.30 , pp. 291-303
    • Mason, I.1
  • 42
    • 0035302469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Mullen, S. L., and R. Buizza, 2001: Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 638-663.
    • (2001) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.129 , pp. 638-663
    • Mullen, S.L.1    Buizza, R.2
  • 43
    • 0000100596 scopus 로고
    • The attributes diagram: A geometric framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts
    • Murphy, A. H., 1986: The attributes diagram: A geometric framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts. Int. J. Forecasting., 2, 285-293.
    • (1986) Int. J. Forecasting , vol.2 , pp. 285-293
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 44
    • 0027789670 scopus 로고
    • Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz method
    • Palmer, T. N., 1993: Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz method. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 49-65.
    • (1993) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.74 , pp. 49-65
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 45
    • 0002780488 scopus 로고
    • Comparison of data-driven bandwidth selectors
    • Park, B., and J. Marron, 1990: Comparison of data-driven bandwidth selectors. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 85, 66-72.
    • (1990) J. Amer. Stat. Assoc , vol.85 , pp. 66-72
    • Park, B.1    Marron, J.2
  • 47
    • 0001473437 scopus 로고
    • On the estimation of a probability density function and the mode
    • Parzen, E., 1962: On the estimation of a probability density function and the mode. Ann. Math. Stat., 33, 1065-1076.
    • (1962) Ann. Math. Stat , vol.33 , pp. 1065-1076
    • Parzen, E.1
  • 48
    • 54749142024 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A diagnostic verification of the precipitation forecasts produced by the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System
    • Peel, S., and L. J. Wilson, 2008: A diagnostic verification of the precipitation forecasts produced by the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 596-616.
    • (2008) Wea. Forecasting , vol.23 , pp. 596-616
    • Peel, S.1    Wilson, L.J.2
  • 50
    • 20444497873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles
    • Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski, 2005: Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1155-1174.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.133 , pp. 1155-1174
    • Raftery, A.E.1    Gneiting, T.2    Balabdaoui, F.3    Polakowski, M.4
  • 51
    • 0034052601 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Richardson, D. S., 2000: Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 649-667.
    • (2000) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.126 , pp. 649-667
    • Richardson, D.S.1
  • 52
    • 0035473127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size
    • Richardson, D. S., 2001: Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2473-2489.
    • (2001) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.127 , pp. 2473-2489
    • Richardson, D.S.1
  • 53
    • 0028555463 scopus 로고
    • Approximations and sensitivity experiments with a baroclinic semi-Lagrangian spectral model
    • Ritchie, H., and C. Beaudoin, 1994: Approximations and sensitivity experiments with a baroclinic semi-Lagrangian spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2391-2399.
    • (1994) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.122 , pp. 2391-2399
    • Ritchie, H.1    Beaudoin, C.2
  • 54
    • 0029431595 scopus 로고
    • The regional analysis system for the operational "early" Eta Model: Original 80-km configuration and recent changes
    • Rogers, E., D. G. Deaven, and G. J. DiMego, 1995: The regional analysis system for the operational "early" Eta Model: Original 80-km configuration and recent changes. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 810-825.
    • (1995) Wea. Forecasting , vol.10 , pp. 810-825
    • Rogers, E.1    Deaven, D.G.2    DiMego, G.J.3
  • 56
    • 0001529784 scopus 로고
    • Remarks on some nonparametric estimates of a density function
    • Rosenblatt, M., 1956: Remarks on some nonparametric estimates of a density function. Ann. Math. Stat., 27, 832-835.
    • (1956) Ann. Math. Stat , vol.27 , pp. 832-835
    • Rosenblatt, M.1
  • 57
    • 0842285869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Density estimation using inverse and reciprocal inverse Gaussian kernels
    • Scaillet, O., 2004: Density estimation using inverse and reciprocal inverse Gaussian kernels. J. Nonparametric Stat., 16, 217-226.
    • (2004) J. Nonparametric Stat , vol.16 , pp. 217-226
    • Scaillet, O.1
  • 58
    • 67649647907 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-dimensional density estimation
    • Data Mining and Computational Statistics, C. R. Rao and E. J. Wegman, Eds, Elsevier, pp
    • Scott, D. W., and S. R. Sain, 2005: Multi-dimensional density estimation. Data Mining and Computational Statistics, C. R. Rao and E. J. Wegman, Eds., Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 23, Elsevier, 229-258 pp.
    • (2005) Handbook of Statistics , vol.23 , pp. 229-258
    • Scott, D.W.1    Sain, S.R.2
  • 59
    • 18844434645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Density estimation
    • Sheather, S. J., 2004: Density estimation. Stat. Sci., 19, 588-597.
    • (2004) Stat. Sci , vol.19 , pp. 588-597
    • Sheather, S.J.1
  • 61
    • 0001247540 scopus 로고
    • An important contribution to nonparametric discriminant analysis and density estimation - Commentary on Fix and Hodges (1951)
    • Silverman, B. W., and M. C. Jones, 1989: An important contribution to nonparametric discriminant analysis and density estimation - Commentary on Fix and Hodges (1951). Int. Stat. Rev., 57, 233-247.
    • (1989) Int. Stat. Rev , vol.57 , pp. 233-247
    • Silverman, B.W.1    Jones, M.C.2
  • 63
    • 0003719573 scopus 로고
    • Survey of common verification methods in meteorology
    • WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 114 pp
    • Stanski, H. R., L. J. Wilson, and W. R. Burrows, 1990: Survey of common verification methods in meteorology. World Weather Watch Tech. Rep. 8., WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 114 pp.
    • (1990) World Weather Watch Tech. Rep , vol.8
    • Stanski, H.R.1    Wilson, L.J.2    Burrows, W.R.3
  • 64
    • 0034098639 scopus 로고
    • Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts
    • Stephenson, D. B., and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 1994: Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts. Tellus, 52A, 300-322.
    • (1994) Tellus , vol.52 A , pp. 300-322
    • Stephenson, D.B.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
  • 66
    • 0001643727 scopus 로고
    • A note on the gamma distribution
    • Thom, H. C. S., 1958: A note on the gamma distribution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 86, 117-122.
    • (1958) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.86 , pp. 117-122
    • Thom, H.C.S.1
  • 67
    • 0001509508 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
    • (1993) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , vol.74 , pp. 2317-2330
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 68
    • 0000593274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NMC and the breeding method
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NMC and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.125 , pp. 3297-3319
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 70
    • 0035414948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The use of ensembles to identify forecasts with small and large uncertainty
    • Toth, Z., Y. Zhu, and T. Marchok, 2001: The use of ensembles to identify forecasts with small and large uncertainty. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 463-477.
    • (2001) Wea. Forecasting , vol.16 , pp. 463-477
    • Toth, Z.1    Zhu, Y.2    Marchok, T.3
  • 74
    • 0032999101 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill
    • Whitaker, J. S., and A. F. Loughe, 1998: The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3292-3302.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.126 , pp. 3292-3302
    • Whitaker, J.S.1    Loughe, A.F.2
  • 75
    • 0000576253 scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood estimation for the gamma distribution using data containing zeros
    • Wilks, D. S., 1990: Maximum likelihood estimation for the gamma distribution using data containing zeros. J. Climate, 3, 1495-1501.
    • (1990) J. Climate , vol.3 , pp. 1495-1501
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 76
    • 0036821009 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Smoothing forecast ensembles with fitted probability distributions
    • Wilks, D. S., 2002: Smoothing forecast ensembles with fitted probability distributions. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2821-2836.
    • (2002) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc , vol.128 , pp. 2821-2836
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 78
    • 34248352225 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibrated surface temperature forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System using Bayesian model averaging
    • Wilson, L. J., S. Beauregard, A. E. Raftery, and R. Verret, 2007: Calibrated surface temperature forecasts from the Canadian Ensemble Prediction System using Bayesian model averaging. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1364-1385.
    • (2007) Mon. Wea. Rev , vol.135 , pp. 1364-1385
    • Wilson, L.J.1    Beauregard, S.2    Raftery, A.E.3    Verret, R.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.