메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 117, Issue 9, 2008, Pages 1417-1427

Limitations of population models in predicting climate change effects: A simulation study of sociable weavers in southern Africa

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; INTERSPECIFIC INTERACTION; PASSERINE; PHENOLOGY; PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION MODELING; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; SPECIES OCCURRENCE;

EID: 49649086105     PISSN: 00301299     EISSN: 16000706     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.0030-1299.2008.16464.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (7)

References (50)
  • 1
    • 35148852610 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short term transformation of matrix into hospitable habitat facilitates gene flow and mitigates fragmentation
    • Blaum, N. Wichmann, M. 2007. Short term transformation of matrix into hospitable habitat facilitates gene flow and mitigates fragmentation J. Anim. Ecol. 6 : 1116 1127.
    • (2007) J. Anim. Ecol. , vol.6 , pp. 1116-1127
    • Blaum, N.1    Wichmann, M.2
  • 2
    • 35148813034 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Responses of mammalian carnivores to land use in arid Kalahari rangelands
    • Blaum, N. et al. 2007. Responses of mammalian carnivores to land use in arid Kalahari rangelands Basic Appl. Ecol. 8 : 552 564.
    • (2007) Basic Appl. Ecol. , vol.8 , pp. 552-564
    • Blaum, N.1
  • 3
    • 0041425277 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multistate estimates of survival and movement in relation to colony size in the sociable weaver
    • Brown, C. R. et al. 2003. Multistate estimates of survival and movement in relation to colony size in the sociable weaver Behav. Ecol. 14 : 463 471.
    • (2003) Behav. Ecol. , vol.14 , pp. 463-471
    • Brown, C.R.1
  • 4
    • 0345356998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • North Sea cod and climate change-modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics
    • Clark, R. A. et al. 2003. North Sea cod and climate change-modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics Global Change Biol. 9 : 1669 1680.
    • (2003) Global Change Biol. , vol.9 , pp. 1669-1680
    • Clark, R.A.1
  • 6
    • 7644243642 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Juvenile and adult survival in the sociable weaver (Philetairus socius), a southern-temperate colonial cooperative breeder in Africa
    • Covas, R. et al. 2004. Juvenile and adult survival in the sociable weaver (Philetairus socius), a southern-temperate colonial cooperative breeder in Africa Auk 121 : 1199 1207.
    • (2004) Auk , vol.121 , pp. 1199-1207
    • Covas, R.1
  • 7
    • 26644475023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of climate change on birds
    • Crick, H. Q. P. 2004. The impact of climate change on birds Ibis 146 : 48 56.
    • (2004) Ibis , vol.146 , pp. 48-56
    • Crick, H.Q.P.1
  • 8
    • 0035142116 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Responses of birds to rainfall and seed abundance in the southern Karoo, South Africa
    • Dean, W. R. J. Milton, S. J. 2001. Responses of birds to rainfall and seed abundance in the southern Karoo, South Africa J. Arid Environ. 47 : 101 121.
    • (2001) J. Arid Environ. , vol.47 , pp. 101-121
    • Dean, W.R.J.1    Milton, S.J.2
  • 9
    • 0036077965 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change
    • Erasmus, B. F. N. et al. 2002. Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change Global Change Biol. 8 : 679 693.
    • (2002) Global Change Biol. , vol.8 , pp. 679-693
    • Erasmus, B.F.N.1
  • 10
    • 49649124514 scopus 로고
    • Dietary overlap in plocepasserine weavers (Aves: Ploceidae)
    • Ferguson, J. W. H. 1988. Dietary overlap in plocepasserine weavers (Aves: Ploceidae) S. Afr. J. Anim. Sci. 23 : 266 271.
    • (1988) S. Afr. J. Anim. Sci. , vol.23 , pp. 266-271
    • Ferguson, J.W.H.1
  • 11
    • 3342980758 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies
    • Forchhammer, M. C. Post, E. 2004. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies Popul. Ecol 46 : 1 12.
    • (2004) Popul. Ecol , vol.46 , pp. 1-12
    • Forchhammer, M.C.1    Post, E.2
  • 12
    • 27744570841 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology
    • Grimm, V. et al. 2005. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology Science 310 : 987 991.
    • (2005) Science , vol.310 , pp. 987-991
    • Grimm, V.1
  • 13
    • 24344493920 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting species distribution: Offering more than simple habitat models
    • Guisan, A. Thuiller, W. 2005. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models Ecol. Lett. 8 : 993 1009.
    • (2005) Ecol. Lett. , vol.8 , pp. 993-1009
    • Guisan, A.1    Thuiller, W.2
  • 14
    • 24144434307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bioclimate envelope models: What they detect and what they hide
    • Hampe, A. 2004. Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 13 : 469 476.
    • (2004) Global Ecol. Biogeogr. , vol.13 , pp. 469-476
    • Hampe, A.1
  • 15
    • 0036185207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate
    • Hannah, L. et al. 2002. Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate Conserv. Biol. 16 : 264 268.
    • (2002) Conserv. Biol. , vol.16 , pp. 264-268
    • Hannah, L.1
  • 16
    • 0034144294 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biological consequences of global warming: Is the signal already apparent?
    • Hughes, L. 2000. Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends Ecol. Evol. 15 : 56 61.
    • (2000) Trends Ecol. Evol. , vol.15 , pp. 56-61
    • Hughes, L.1
  • 18
    • 0028974973 scopus 로고
    • Predicting the response of populations to environmental change
    • Ives, A. R. 1995. Predicting the response of populations to environmental change Ecology 76 : 926 941.
    • (1995) Ecology , vol.76 , pp. 926-941
    • Ives, A.R.1
  • 19
    • 0034492132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecological buffering mechanisms in savannas: A unifying theory of long-term tree-grass coexistence
    • Jeltsch, F. et al. 2000. Ecological buffering mechanisms in savannas: a unifying theory of long-term tree-grass coexistence Plant Ecol. 161 : 161 171.
    • (2000) Plant Ecol. , vol.161 , pp. 161-171
    • Jeltsch, F.1
  • 20
    • 0037073835 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rainfall variability, carbon cycling, and plant species diversity in a mesic grassland
    • Knapp, A. K. et al. 2002. Rainfall variability, carbon cycling, and plant species diversity in a mesic grassland Science 298 : 2202 2205.
    • (2002) Science , vol.298 , pp. 2202-2205
    • Knapp, A.K.1
  • 21
    • 0035138362 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How does environmental variation translate into biological processes?
    • Laakso, J. et al. 2001. How does environmental variation translate into biological processes? Oikos 92 : 119 122.
    • (2001) Oikos , vol.92 , pp. 119-122
    • Laakso, J.1
  • 22
    • 0033942241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The zoogeography of mammalian basal metabolic rate
    • Lovegrove, B. G. 2000. The zoogeography of mammalian basal metabolic rate Am. Nat. 156 : 201 219.
    • (2000) Am. Nat. , vol.156 , pp. 201-219
    • Lovegrove, B.G.1
  • 23
    • 84952195910 scopus 로고
    • The sociable weaver, parts 1-5
    • Maclean, G. L. 1973. The sociable weaver, parts 1-5 Ostrich 44 : 176 261.
    • (1973) Ostrich , vol.44 , pp. 176-261
    • MacLean, G.L.1
  • 26
    • 0001404954 scopus 로고
    • The stability of predator-prey systems
    • Maynard Smith, J. Slatkin, M. 1973. The stability of predator-prey systems Ecology 54 : 384 391.
    • (1973) Ecology , vol.54 , pp. 384-391
    • Maynard Smith, J.1    Slatkin, M.2
  • 27
    • 0010587998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sociable weaver Philetairus socius
    • Harrison, J. A. Birdlife South Africa, Johannesburg
    • Mendelsohn, J. M. Anderson, M. D. 1997. Sociable weaver Philetairus socius Harrison, J. A. The atlas of southern African birds. Birdlife South Africa, Johannesburg 534 535.
    • (1997) The Atlas of Southern African Birds. , pp. 534-535
    • Mendelsohn, J.M.1    Anderson, M.D.2
  • 28
    • 35448946451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rhythm of savanna patch dynamics
    • Meyer, K. M. et al. 2007. The rhythm of savanna patch dynamics J. Ecol. 95 : 1306 1315.
    • (2007) J. Ecol. , vol.95 , pp. 1306-1315
    • Meyer, K.M.1
  • 29
    • 0002107424 scopus 로고
    • Desert ecosystems: Environment and producers
    • Noy-Meir, I. 1973. Desert ecosystems: environment and producers Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 4 : 23 51.
    • (1973) Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. , vol.4 , pp. 23-51
    • Noy-Meir, I.1
  • 30
    • 0037413628 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
    • Parmesan, C. Yohe, G. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems Nature 421 : 37 42.
    • (2003) Nature , vol.421 , pp. 37-42
    • Parmesan, C.1    Yohe, G.2
  • 31
    • 0141856572 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: Are bioclimate envelope models useful?
    • Pearson, R. G. Dawson, T. P. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 12 : 361 371.
    • (2003) Global Ecol. Biogeogr. , vol.12 , pp. 361-371
    • Pearson, R.G.1    Dawson, T.P.2
  • 32
    • 35748968496 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulating the impacts of vegetation structure on the occurrence of a small mammalian carnivore in semi-arid savanna rangelands
    • Popp, A. et al. 2007. Simulating the impacts of vegetation structure on the occurrence of a small mammalian carnivore in semi-arid savanna rangelands Ecol. Modell. 209 : 136 148.
    • (2007) Ecol. Modell. , vol.209 , pp. 136-148
    • Popp, A.1
  • 33
    • 0033613443 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecosystem consequences of wolf behavioural response to climate
    • Post, E. et al. 1999. Ecosystem consequences of wolf behavioural response to climate Nature 401 : 905 907.
    • (1999) Nature , vol.401 , pp. 905-907
    • Post, E.1
  • 34
    • 33646543813 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?
    • Randin, C. F. et al. 2006. Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space? J. Biogeogr. 33 : 1689 1703.
    • (2006) J. Biogeogr. , vol.33 , pp. 1689-1703
    • Randin, C.F.1
  • 35
    • 0030057921 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validating models of ecosystem response to global change
    • Rastetter, E. B. 1996. Validating models of ecosystem response to global change Bioscience 46 : 190 198.
    • (1996) Bioscience , vol.46 , pp. 190-198
    • Rastetter, E.B.1
  • 36
    • 0033859831 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The route to extinction in variable environments
    • Ripa, J. Lundberg, P. 2000. The route to extinction in variable environments Oikos 90 : 89 96.
    • (2000) Oikos , vol.90 , pp. 89-96
    • Ripa, J.1    Lundberg, P.2
  • 37
    • 0038482443 scopus 로고
    • Is there life after climate change?
    • Roberts, L. 1988. Is there life after climate change? Science 242 : 1010 1012.
    • (1988) Science , vol.242 , pp. 1010-1012
    • Roberts, L.1
  • 38
    • 33645393003 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Behavioural flexibility in the mating system buffers population extinction: Lessons from the lesser spotted woodpecker (Picoides minor)
    • Rossmanith, E. et al. 2006. Behavioural flexibility in the mating system buffers population extinction: lessons from the lesser spotted woodpecker (Picoides minor) J. Anim. Ecol. 75 : 540 548.
    • (2006) J. Anim. Ecol. , vol.75 , pp. 540-548
    • Rossmanith, E.1
  • 39
    • 0035033279 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Butterfly numbers and weather: Predicting historical trends in abundance and the future effects of climate change
    • Roy, D. B. et al. 2001. Butterfly numbers and weather: predicting historical trends in abundance and the future effects of climate change J. Anim. Ecol. 70 : 201 217.
    • (2001) J. Anim. Ecol. , vol.70 , pp. 201-217
    • Roy, D.B.1
  • 40
    • 0034603060 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird
    • Sæther, B.-E. et al. 2000. Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird Science 287 : 854 856.
    • (2000) Science , vol.287 , pp. 854-856
    • Sæther, B.-E.1
  • 43
    • 1542329839 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extinction risk from climate change
    • Thomas, C. D. et al. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change Nature 427 : 145 148.
    • (2004) Nature , vol.427 , pp. 145-148
    • Thomas, C.D.1
  • 44
    • 84985164201 scopus 로고
    • The thermal significance of the nest of the sociable weaver Philetairus socius: Winter observations
    • White, F. N. et al. 1975. The thermal significance of the nest of the sociable weaver Philetairus socius: winter observations Ibis 117 : 171 179.
    • (1975) Ibis , vol.117 , pp. 171-179
    • White, F.N.1
  • 45
    • 0000340439 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An altitudinal transect as an indicator of responses of a spittlebug (Auchenorrhyncha: Cercopidae) to climate change
    • Whittaker, J. B. Tribe, N. P. 1996. An altitudinal transect as an indicator of responses of a spittlebug (Auchenorrhyncha: Cercopidae) to climate change Eur. J. Entomol. 93 : 319 324.
    • (1996) Eur. J. Entomol. , vol.93 , pp. 319-324
    • Whittaker, J.B.1    Tribe, N.P.2
  • 46
    • 0031765196 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting numbers of an insect (Neophilaenus lineatus: Homoptera) in a changing climate
    • Whittaker, J. B. Tribe, N. P. 1998. Predicting numbers of an insect (Neophilaenus lineatus: Homoptera) in a changing climate J. Anim. Ecol. 67 : 987 991.
    • (1998) J. Anim. Ecol. , vol.67 , pp. 987-991
    • Whittaker, J.B.1    Tribe, N.P.2
  • 47
    • 0038677082 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implication of climate change for the persistence of raptors in arid savanna
    • Wichmann, M. C. et al. 2003. Implication of climate change for the persistence of raptors in arid savanna Oikos 102 : 186 202.
    • (2003) Oikos , vol.102 , pp. 186-202
    • Wichmann, M.C.1
  • 48
    • 23844505207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: Ecological buffering mechanisms
    • Wichmann, M. C. et al. 2005. Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms Global Planetary Change 45 : 273 281.
    • (2005) Global Planetary Change , vol.45 , pp. 273-281
    • Wichmann, M.C.1
  • 49
    • 0037799893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information: A key for reconciling ecological theory and application
    • Wiegand, T. et al. 2003. Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information: a key for reconciling ecological theory and application Oikos 100 : 209 222.
    • (2003) Oikos , vol.100 , pp. 209-222
    • Wiegand, T.1
  • 50
    • 0027097358 scopus 로고
    • A model of southern African rainfall
    • Zucchini, W. et al. 1992. A model of southern African rainfall S. Afr. J. Sci. 88 : 103 109.
    • (1992) S. Afr. J. Sci. , vol.88 , pp. 103-109
    • Zucchini, W.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.