-
4
-
-
0002457902
-
-
P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA
-
A. E. Dunham, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 95-119; A. R. Ives and C. Gilchrist, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. C. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 120-146; C. Solbreck, in Population Dynamics: New Approaches and Synthesis, N. Cappucino and P. W. Price, Eds. (Academic Press, San Diego, 1995), pp. 279-301; B.-E. Sæther, Trends Ecol. Evol. 12, 143 (1997); I. Newton, Population Limitation in Birds (Academic Press, San Diego, 1998); E. P. Post and N. C. Stenseth, Ecology 80, 1322 (1999).
-
(1993)
Biotic Interactions and Global Change
, pp. 95-119
-
-
Dunham, A.E.1
-
5
-
-
0002926117
-
-
P. M. Kareiva, J. C. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA
-
A. E. Dunham, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 95-119; A. R. Ives and C. Gilchrist, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. C. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 120-146; C. Solbreck, in Population Dynamics: New Approaches and Synthesis, N. Cappucino and P. W. Price, Eds. (Academic Press, San Diego, 1995), pp. 279-301; B.-E. Sæther, Trends Ecol. Evol. 12, 143 (1997); I. Newton, Population Limitation in Birds (Academic Press, San Diego, 1998); E. P. Post and N. C. Stenseth, Ecology 80, 1322 (1999).
-
(1993)
Biotic Interactions and Global Change
, pp. 120-146
-
-
Ives, A.R.1
Gilchrist, C.2
-
6
-
-
0002847722
-
-
N. Cappucino and P. W. Price, Eds. Academic Press, San Diego
-
A. E. Dunham, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 95-119; A. R. Ives and C. Gilchrist, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. C. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 120-146; C. Solbreck, in Population Dynamics: New Approaches and Synthesis, N. Cappucino and P. W. Price, Eds. (Academic Press, San Diego, 1995), pp. 279-301; B.-E. Sæther, Trends Ecol. Evol. 12, 143 (1997); I. Newton, Population Limitation in Birds (Academic Press, San Diego, 1998); E. P. Post and N. C. Stenseth, Ecology 80, 1322 (1999).
-
(1995)
Population Dynamics: New Approaches and Synthesis
, pp. 279-301
-
-
Solbreck, C.1
-
7
-
-
0031113780
-
-
A. E. Dunham, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 95-119; A. R. Ives and C. Gilchrist, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. C. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 120-146; C. Solbreck, in Population Dynamics: New Approaches and Synthesis, N. Cappucino and P. W. Price, Eds. (Academic Press, San Diego, 1995), pp. 279-301; B.-E. Sæther, Trends Ecol. Evol. 12, 143 (1997); I. Newton, Population Limitation in Birds (Academic Press, San Diego, 1998); E. P. Post and N. C. Stenseth, Ecology 80, 1322 (1999).
-
(1997)
Trends Ecol. Evol.
, vol.12
, pp. 143
-
-
Sæther, B.-E.1
-
8
-
-
0004294439
-
-
Academic Press, San Diego
-
A. E. Dunham, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 95-119; A. R. Ives and C. Gilchrist, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. C. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 120-146; C. Solbreck, in Population Dynamics: New Approaches and Synthesis, N. Cappucino and P. W. Price, Eds. (Academic Press, San Diego, 1995), pp. 279-301; B.-E. Sæther, Trends Ecol. Evol. 12, 143 (1997); I. Newton, Population Limitation in Birds (Academic Press, San Diego, 1998); E. P. Post and N. C. Stenseth, Ecology 80, 1322 (1999).
-
(1998)
Population Limitation in Birds
-
-
Newton, I.1
-
9
-
-
0033045072
-
-
A. E. Dunham, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. G. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 95-119; A. R. Ives and C. Gilchrist, in Biotic Interactions and Global Change, P. M. Kareiva, J. C. Kingsolver, R. B. Huey, Eds. (Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA, 1993), pp. 120-146; C. Solbreck, in Population Dynamics: New Approaches and Synthesis, N. Cappucino and P. W. Price, Eds. (Academic Press, San Diego, 1995), pp. 279-301; B.-E. Sæther, Trends Ecol. Evol. 12, 143 (1997); I. Newton, Population Limitation in Birds (Academic Press, San Diego, 1998); E. P. Post and N. C. Stenseth, Ecology 80, 1322 (1999).
-
(1999)
Ecology
, vol.80
, pp. 1322
-
-
Post, E.P.1
Stenseth, N.C.2
-
10
-
-
0003560650
-
-
Methuen, London
-
M. S. Bartlett, Stochastic Population Models (Methuen, London, 1960); K. B. Athreya and S. Karlin, Annal. Math. Stat. 42, 1499 (1971); R. M. May, Am. Nat. 107, 621 (1973); R. Lande, Oikos 83, 353 (1998).
-
(1960)
Stochastic Population Models
-
-
Bartlett, M.S.1
-
11
-
-
0000546035
-
-
M. S. Bartlett, Stochastic Population Models (Methuen, London, 1960); K. B. Athreya and S. Karlin, Annal. Math. Stat. 42, 1499 (1971); R. M. May, Am. Nat. 107, 621 (1973); R. Lande, Oikos 83, 353 (1998).
-
(1971)
Annal. Math. Stat.
, vol.42
, pp. 1499
-
-
Athreya, K.B.1
Karlin, S.2
-
12
-
-
0000643605
-
-
M. S. Bartlett, Stochastic Population Models (Methuen, London, 1960); K. B. Athreya and S. Karlin, Annal. Math. Stat. 42, 1499 (1971); R. M. May, Am. Nat. 107, 621 (1973); R. Lande, Oikos 83, 353 (1998).
-
(1973)
Am. Nat.
, vol.107
, pp. 621
-
-
May, R.M.1
-
13
-
-
0031741955
-
-
M. S. Bartlett, Stochastic Population Models (Methuen, London, 1960); K. B. Athreya and S. Karlin, Annal. Math. Stat. 42, 1499 (1971); R. M. May, Am. Nat. 107, 621 (1973); R. Lande, Oikos 83, 353 (1998).
-
(1998)
Oikos
, vol.83
, pp. 353
-
-
Lande, R.1
-
16
-
-
85069106525
-
-
note
-
The study population was located along the lower parts of the river Lygna in the county of Vest-Agder in southern Norway (58°15′N, 7°15′E). The study area covers about 60 km from the mouth of the river to the inland.
-
-
-
-
17
-
-
85069110885
-
-
note
-
The population size was estimated by searching the banks of the river for occupied nest sites on almost every day of the breeding season. A large fraction of the breeding adults were individually color-ringed. In addition, a large proportion of the fledglings were ringed. Because of the large proportion of ringed individuals and the conspicuous behavior of the adults, the bias in population estimate is low and the recapture rates are high. Thus, during the 1988-96 period, 94% (SD = 4) of all known breeding females on average were ringed by the end of the breeding season.
-
-
-
-
18
-
-
85069111403
-
-
note
-
t was recorded as the number of previously unbanded (non-ringed) individuals in the population.
-
-
-
-
19
-
-
85069113823
-
-
note
-
Data on the number of days with ice cover were collected by local representatives of the Norwegian Water Resources and Electricity Directorate.
-
-
-
-
20
-
-
85069089210
-
-
Climate Analysis Section of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, CO)
-
Climate data (monthly means of temperature and of precipitation) were collected at the weather station Konsmo during the period 1964-98 by the Norwegian Institute of Meteorology. The NAO index was obtained from the Climate Analysis Section of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, CO); additional information is available at http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/climind.
-
-
-
-
21
-
-
0003470083
-
-
MRC Biostatistical Unit, Cambridge, UK
-
2d) from individually based data (3, 23), the posterior distribution for all unknown parameters was computed numerically with the BUGS package [D. J. Spiegelhalter, A. Thomas, N. Best, W. Gilks, BUGS 5.0 Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling. Version 5.0 (MRC Biostatistical Unit, Cambridge, UK, 1996)]. This is a general software package carrying out Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (14, 24). A model similar to that of Tufto et al. (25) was used, but with noninformative or diffuse scale and location priors assigned directly to the demographic parameters and with an additional climate term, as in Eq. 1, incorporating the effect of winter temperature. For other details, see (25).
-
(1996)
BUGS 5.0 Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling. Version 5.0
-
-
Spiegelhalter, D.J.1
Thomas, A.2
Best, N.3
Gilks, W.4
-
22
-
-
0003860037
-
-
Chapman and Hall, London
-
W. Gilks, 5. Richardson, D. Spiegelhalter, Eds., in Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice (Chapman and Hall, London, 1996), pp. 1-20.
-
(1996)
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
, pp. 1-20
-
-
Gilks, W.1
Richardson, S.2
Spiegelhalter, D.3
-
24
-
-
0029479274
-
-
P. J. Lamb and R. A. Peppler, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 68, 1218 (1987); J. W. Hurell, Science 269, 676 (1995).
-
(1995)
Science
, vol.269
, pp. 676
-
-
Hurell, J.W.1
-
25
-
-
0021535477
-
-
J. C. Rogers, Mon. Weather Rev. 112, 1999 (1984); J. W. Hurrell and H. Van Loon, Clim. Change 36, 301 (1997).
-
(1984)
Mon. Weather Rev.
, vol.112
, pp. 1999
-
-
Rogers, J.C.1
-
28
-
-
0033614403
-
-
S. Corti, F. Molteni, T. N. Palmer, Nature 398, 799 (1999); D. T. Shindell, R. L. Miller, G. A. Schmidt, L. Pandolfo, Nature 399, 452 (1999).
-
(1999)
Nature
, vol.398
, pp. 799
-
-
Corti, S.1
Molteni, F.2
Palmer, T.N.3
-
29
-
-
0033519653
-
-
S. Corti, F. Molteni, T. N. Palmer, Nature 398, 799 (1999); D. T. Shindell, R. L. Miller, G. A. Schmidt, L. Pandolfo, Nature 399, 452 (1999).
-
(1999)
Nature
, vol.399
, pp. 452
-
-
Shindell, D.T.1
Miller, R.L.2
Schmidt, G.A.3
Pandolfo, L.4
-
32
-
-
85187155875
-
-
H. Q. P Crick, C. Dudley, D. E. Glue, D. L. Thomson, Nature 388, 526 (1997); R. H. McCleery and C. M. Perrins, Nature 391, 30 (1998).
-
(1997)
Nature
, vol.388
, pp. 526
-
-
Crick, H.Q.P.1
Dudley, C.2
Glue, D.E.3
Thomson, D.L.4
-
33
-
-
85049569622
-
-
H. Q. P Crick, C. Dudley, D. E. Glue, D. L. Thomson, Nature 388, 526 (1997); R. H. McCleery and C. M. Perrins, Nature 391, 30 (1998).
-
(1998)
Nature
, vol.391
, pp. 30
-
-
McCleery, R.H.1
Perrins, C.M.2
-
34
-
-
0001884137
-
-
J. Bascompte, R. V. Solé, Eds. Springer-Verlag, Berlin
-
E. Ranta, V. Kaitala, J. Lindström, in Modeling Spatiotemporal Dynamics in Ecology. J. Bascompte, R. V. Solé, Eds. (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1998), pp. 47-62; O. N. Bjømstad, R. A. Irns, X. Lambin, Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 427 (1999); R. Lande, S. Engen, B.-E. Sæther, Am. Nat. 154, 271 (1999).
-
(1998)
Modeling Spatiotemporal Dynamics in Ecology
, pp. 47-62
-
-
Ranta, E.1
Kaitala, V.2
Lindström, J.3
-
35
-
-
0033231663
-
-
E. Ranta, V. Kaitala, J. Lindström, in Modeling Spatiotemporal Dynamics in Ecology. J. Bascompte, R. V. Solé, Eds. (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1998), pp. 47-62; O. N. Bjømstad, R. A. Irns, X. Lambin, Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 427 (1999); R. Lande, S. Engen, B.-E. Sæther, Am. Nat. 154, 271 (1999).
-
(1999)
Trends Ecol. Evol.
, vol.14
, pp. 427
-
-
Bjømstad, O.N.1
Irns, R.A.2
Lambin, X.3
-
36
-
-
0032735371
-
-
E. Ranta, V. Kaitala, J. Lindström, in Modeling Spatiotemporal Dynamics in Ecology. J. Bascompte, R. V. Solé, Eds. (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1998), pp. 47-62; O. N. Bjømstad, R. A. Irns, X. Lambin, Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 427 (1999); R. Lande, S. Engen, B.-E. Sæther, Am. Nat. 154, 271 (1999).
-
(1999)
Am. Nat.
, vol.154
, pp. 271
-
-
Lande, R.1
Engen, S.2
Sæther, B.-E.3
-
37
-
-
0031945365
-
-
B.-E. Sæther, S. Engen, A. Islam, R. McCleery, C. Perrins, Am. Nat. 151, 441 (1998).
-
(1998)
Am. Nat.
, vol.151
, pp. 441
-
-
Sæther, B.-E.1
Engen, S.2
Islam, A.3
McCleery, R.4
Perrins, C.5
-
39
-
-
0034000749
-
-
J. Tufto et al., Oikos 88, 273 (2000).
-
(2000)
Oikos
, vol.88
, pp. 273
-
-
Tufto, J.1
-
40
-
-
85069094364
-
-
note
-
This study was financed by the Norwegian Directorate for Nature Management, the Department of Environment, the County Governor in Vest-Agder, and the Norwegian Research Council. We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on the manuscript.
-
-
-
|