Implication of climate change for the persistence of raptors in arid savanna

Oikos

Volumn 102, Issue 1, 2003, Pages 186-202

  Wichmann, Matthias C ^a,b   Jeltsch, Florian ^b   Dean, W Richard J ^c   Moloney, Kirk A ^d   Wissel, Christian ^a  

^a HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF POTSDAM   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

^d IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARID ENVIRONMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; EXTINCTION RISK; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAPTOR; SAVANNA; WATER AVAILABILITY;

AFRICA;

AQUILA; AQUILA RAPAX; CICONIIFORMES; RAPTORES;

EID: 0038677082     PISSN: 00301299     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0706.2003.12044.x     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. Ball, J. P. 2001. Among-year variation in moose calf mass related to climate, plant phenology and nitrogen. ESA. Abstr. 86th Annu. Meeting Ecol. Soc. Am.
2. Bahat, O. and Mendelssohn, H. 1996. The long-term effect of precipitation on the breeding success of golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos homeyeri in the Judean and Negev desert, Israel. - In: Meyburg, B. U. and Chancellor, R. D. (eds), Eagle studies. World working group on birds of prey and owls., pp. 517-522.
3. Balling, R. C., Meyer, G. A. and Wells, S. G. 1992. Climate change in Yellowstone National Park: is the drought-related risk of wildfires increasing? - Clim. Change 22: 35-45.
4. Bridges, A. S., Peterson, M. J., Silvy, N. J. et al. 2001. Differential influence of weather on regional quail abundance in Texas. - J. Wildl. Manage. 65: 10-18.
5. Brooke, R. K. and Steyn, P. 1972. A study of migrations. Occ. Pap. Natl Mus. Rhod. B 5: 61-114.
6. Brown, C. J. 1984. The behaviour of a tawny eagle at carrion. - Madoqua 14: 95-97.
7. Brown, C. J. 1991. Declining martial eagle Polemaetus bellicosus and tawny eagle Aquila rapax populations and causes of mortality on farmlands in central Namibia. - Biol. Conserv. 56: 49-62.
8. Brown, L. H. and Amadon, D. 1968. Eagles, hawks and falcons of the world. - Country Life Books.
9. Brown, L. H. and Cade, T. J. 1972. Age classes of the bateleur and African fish eagle. - Ostrich 43: 1-16.
10. Brown, L. H., Urban, E. K. and Newman, K. B. 1982. The birds of Africa. Vol. 1. - Academic Press.
11. Burgman, M. A., Ferson, S. and Akcakaya, H. R. 1993. Risk assessment in conservation biology. - Chapman & Hall.
12. Chatfield, C. 1984. The analysis of time series. - Chapman and Hall.
13. Clark, J. S. 1990. Fire and climate change during the last 750 yr in northwestern Minnesota. - Ecol. Monogr. 60: 135-159.
14. Clark, W. S. 1992. The taxonomy of steppe and tawny eagles, with criteria for separation of museum specimens and live eagles. - Bull. Brit. Orn. Club 112: 150-157.
15. Coulson, T., Catchpole, E. A., Albon, S. D. et al. 2001. Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in soay sheep. - Science 292: 1528-1531.
16. Cramp, S. (ed.) 1980. Handbook of the birds of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. The birds of the Western Palearctic. - Oxford Univ. Press.
17. Crick, H. Q. P. and Sparks, T. H. 1999. Climate change related to egg-laying trends. - Nature 399: 423.
18. Cuddington, K. M. and Yodzis, P. 1999. Black noise and population persistence. - Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 266: 969-973.
19. Dean, W. R. J. 1969. On the food of the Gymnogene. - Ostrich 40: 22.
20. Dean, W. R. J. 1975. Martial eagles nesting on high tension pylons. - Ostrich 46: 116.
21. Dean, W. R. J. and Milton, S. J. 1988. Dispersal of seeds by raptors. - Afr. J. Ecol. 26: 173-176.
22. Dean, W. R. J. and Milton, S. J. in press. The importance of roads and road verges for raptors and crows in the succulent and Nama-Karoo, South Africa. - Ostrich 74.
23. Dean, W. R. J., Milton, S. J. and Turpie, J. K. 1997. The conservation, ecology and evolution of birds - a southern perspective. - S. Afr. J. Sci. 93: 253-257.
24. 2 enrichment. - Science 284: 1177-1179.
25. Grimm, V. and Berger, U. in press. Seeing the wood for the trees and vice versa: pattern-oriented ecological modelling. - In: Seuront L. and Strutton P.G. (eds), Scales in aquatic systems: measurement, analysis, simulation. CRC Press.
26. Grimm, V., Frank, K., Jeltsch, F. et al. 1996. Pattern-oriented modelling in population ecology. - Sci. Total Environ. 183: 151-166.
27. Halley, J. M. 1996. Ecology, evolution and 1/f-noise. - Trends Ecol. Evol. 11: 33-37.
28. Hannah, L., Midgley, G. F., Lovejoy, T. et al. 2002. Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate. - Conserv. Biol. 16: 264-268.
29. Harris, M. P., Buckland, S. T., Russell, S. M. and Wanless, S. 1994. Year- and age-related variation in the survival of adult European shags over a 24-year period. - Condor 96: 600-605.
30. Hennessy, K. J., Whetton, P. H. and Wu, X. 1997. Fine resolution climate change scenarios for NSW, Research undertaken for the New South Wales Environment Protection Authority. 1997. CSIRO, Melbourne.
31. Herholdt, J. J., Kemp, A. C. and Du Plessis, D. 1996. Aspects of the breeding status and ecology of the bateleur and tawny eagle in the Kalahari Gemsbok National Park, South Africa. - Ostrich., pp. 126-137.
32. Herremans, M. and Herremans-Tonnoeyr, D. 2000. Land use and the conservation status of raptors in Botswana. - Biol. Conserv. 94: 31-41.
33. Hornby, H. E. 1974. Where no bateleurs fly. - Honeyguide 80: 53-55.
34. 2. - Nature 409: 188-191.
35. Hustler, K. and Howells, W. W. 1986. A population study of the tawny eagle in the Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. - Ostrich 57: 101-106.
36. Hustler, K. and Howells, W. W. 1989. Habitat preference, breeding succes and the effect of primary productivity on tawny eagles Aquila rapax in the tropics. - Ibis 131: 33-40.
37. Hustler, K. and Howells, W. W. 1990. The influence of primary production on a raptor community in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. - J. Trop. Ecol. 6: 343-354.
38. IPCC 2001a. Climate Change 2001: The regional impacts of climate change. http://www.ipcc.ch. 2001.
39. IPCC 2001b. Climate Change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of workgroup I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. - Cambridge Univ. Press.
40. van Jaarsveld, A. S. and Chown, S. L. 2001. Climate change and its impacts in South Africa. - Trends Ecol. Evol. 16: 13-14.
41. Jeltsch, F., Milton, S. J., Dean, W. R. J. and van Rooyen, N. 1996. Tree spacing and coexistence in semiarid savannas. - J. Ecol. 84: 583-595.
42. Jeltsch, F., Milton, S. J., Dean, W. R. J. and van Rooyen, N. 1997a. Analysing shrub encroachment in the southern Kalahari: a grid-based modelling approach. - J. Appl. Ecol. 34: 1497-1509.
43. Jeltsch, F., Milton, S. J., Dean, W. R. J. and van Rooyen, N. 1997b. Simulated pattern formation around artificial waterholes in the semi-arid Kalahari. - J. Veg. Sci. 8: 177-188.
44. Jeltsch, F., Weber, G. E. and Grimm, V. 2000. Ecological buffering mechanisms in savannas: a unifying theory of long-term tree-grass coexistence. - Plant Ecol. 150: 161-171.
45. Jensen, R. A. C. 1972. The steppe eagle Aquila nipalensis and other termite-eating raptors in South West Africa. - Madoqua Ser 1: 73-76.
46. Joel, G., Chapin III, F. S., Chiariello, N. R. et al. 2001. Species-specific responses of plant communities to altered carbon and nutrient availability. - Global Change Biol. 7: 435-450.
47. Johst, K. and Wissel, C. 1997. Extinction risk in a temporally correlated fluctuating environment. - Theor. Popul. Biol. 52: 91-100.
48. Kaitala, V., Lundberg, P., Ripa, J. and Ylikarjula, J. 1997. Red, blue and green: dyeing population dynamics. - Ann. Zool. Fenn. 34: 217-228.
49. Karl, T. R. and Knight, R. W. 1998. Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. - Bull. Am. Meterol. Soc. 79: 231-241.
50. Katz, R. W. and Brown, B. G. 1992. Extreme events in a changing climate: variabilty is more important than averages. - Climate Change 21: 289-302.
51. Katz, R. W. and Brown, B. G. 1994. Sensitivity of extreme events to climate change: the case of autocorrelated time series. - Envrionmetrics 5: 451-462.
52. Kemp, A. C., Herholdt, J. J., Whyte, I. and Harrison, J. 2001. Birds of the two largest national parks in South Africa: a method to generate estimates of population size for all species and assess their conservation ecology. - S. Afr. J. Sci. 97: 393-403.
53. Kirschbaum, M. U. F. 1995. The temperature dependence of soil organic matter decomposition, and the effect of global warming on soil organic C storage. - Soil Biol. Biochem. 27: 753-760.
54. Kot, M. and Schaffer, W. M. 1984. The effects of seasonality on discrete models of population growth. - Theoret. Popul. Biol. 26: 340-360.
55. Laakso, J., Kaitala, V. and Ranta, E. 2001. How does environmental variation translate into biological process? - Oikos 92: 119-122.
56. Lande, R. 1993. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. - Am. Nat. 142: 911-927.
57. Li, J. 1992. Periodic solutions of population models in a periodically fluctuating environment. - Math. Biosci. 110: 17-25.
58. Liversidge, R. 1994. Long-term population fluctuations of large raptors in the southern Kalahari. - In: Meyburg, B. U. and Chancellor, R. D. (eds), Raptor conservation today. World working group on birds of prey and owls., pp. 55-60.
59. Lloyd, P. 1999. Rainfall as breeding stimulus and clutch size determinant in South African arid-zone birds. - Ibis 141: 637-643.
60. Low, A. B. and Rebelo, A. G. 1996. Vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. - Dept of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria.
61. Madens, T. and Shine, R. 2001. Rainfall and rats: climatically-driven dynamics of a tropical rodent population. - Austral. Ecol. 24: 80-89.
62. Matyasvszky, I., Bogardi, I., Bardossy, A. and Duckstein, L. 1993. Space-time precipitation reflecting climate change. - Hydrol. Sci. 38: 539-558.
63. McCleery, R., Yom-Tov, Y. and Purchase, D. 1998. The effect of annual rainfall on the survival rates of some australian passerines. - J. Field Ornithol. 69: 169-179.
64. Moreau, R. E. 1945. On the Bateleur, especially at the Nest. - Ibis 87: 224-249.
65. Moss, R., Oswald, J. and Baines, D. 2001. Climate change and breeding success: decline of the capercaillie in Scotland. - J. Anim. Ecol. 70: 47-61.
66. Newton, I. 1979. Population ecology of raptors. - T&A.D. Poyser. Berkhamsted.
67. Newton, I. and Rothery, P. 1997. Senescence and reproductive value in sparrowhawks. - Ecology 78: 1000-1008.
68. O'Neill, B. C., MacKellar, F. L. and Lutz, W. 2001. Population and climate change. - Cambridge Univ. Press.
69. Osborne, T. 1982. Observations of the tawny eagle in southern Zambia. - Ostrich 53: 107-111.
70. Post, E., Peterson, R. O., Stenseth, N. C. and McLaren, B. E. 1999. Ecosystem consequences of wolf behavioural response to climate. - Nature 401: 905-907.
71. Reuter, H. and Breckling, B. 1999. Emerging properties on the individual level: modelling the reproduction phase of the European robin Erithacus rubecula. - Ecol. Model. 121: 199-219.
72. Ripa, J. and Lundberg, P. 1996. Noise colour and the risk of population extinction. - Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 263: 1751-1753.
73. Roberts, L. 1988. Is there life after climate change? - Science 242: 1010-1012.
74. Rodriguez-Estrella, R., Donazar, A. and Hiraldo, F. 1998. Raptors as indicators of environmental change in the Scrub habitat of Baja California Sur, Mexico. - Conserv. Biol. 12: 921-925.
75. Roughgarden, J. 1975. A simple model for population dynamics in stochastic environments. - Am. Nat. 109: 713-736.
76. Schiermeier, Q. 2001. Climate change offers bleak future. - Nature 409: 971.
77. Scholes, R. J. and Walker, B. H. 1993. An African savanna: synthesis of the Nylsvley study. - Cambridge Univ. Press.
78. Schulze, R. E. 2000. Modelling hydrological responses to land use and climate change: a southern African perspective. - Ambio 29: 12-22.
79. Shaffer, M. L. 1981. Minimum population sizes for species conservation. - BioScience 31: 131-134.
80. Smeenk, C. 1974. Comparative ecological studies of some East African birds of prey. - Ardea 62: 1-97.
81. Starfield, A. M. 1997. A pragmatic approach to modeling for wildlife management. - J. Wildl. Manage. 61: 270-279.
82. Stelter, C., Reich, M., Grimm, V. and Wissel, C. 1997. Modelling persistence in dynamic landscapes: lessons from a metapopulation of the grasshopper Bryodema tuberculata. - J. Anim. Ecol. 66: 508-518.
83. Steyn, P. 1965. Some observations on the bateleur Terathopius ecaudatus (Daudin). - Ostrich 36: 203-213.
84. Steyn, P. 1973. Observations on the tawny eagle. - Ostrich 44: 1-22.
85. Steyn, P. 1980. Further observations on the tawny eagle. - Ostrich 51: 54-55.
86. Steyn, P. 1983. Birds of prey of Southern Africa. - David Philip.
87. Uchmanski, J. and Grimm, V. 1996. Individual-based modelling in ecology: what makes the difference? - Trends Ecol. Evol. 11: 437-441.
88. Weimerskirch, H., Clobert, J. and Jouventin, P. 1987. Survival in five southern albatrosses and its relationship with their life history. - J. Anim. Ecol. 56: 1043-1055.
89. Weimerskirch, H. 1992. Reproductive effort in long-lived birds: age-specific patterns of condition, reproduction and survival in the wandering albatross. - Oikos 64: 464-473.
90. Wiegand, T. and Jeltsch, F. 2000. Long-term dynamics in arid and semi-arid ecosystems - synthesis of a workshop. - Plant Ecol. 150: 3-6.
91. Wiegand, T., Naves, J., Stephan, T. and Fernandez, A. 1998. Assessing the risk of extinction for the brown bear (Ursus arctos) in the Cordillera Cantabrica, Spain. - Ecol. Monogr. 68: 539-570.
92. Wiegand, T., Jeltsch, F., Hanski, I. and Grimm, V. 2003. Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information: a key for reconciling ecological theory and application. - Oikos 100: 209-222.
93. Wigley, T. M. L., Smith, R. L. and Santer, B. D. 1998. Anthropogenic influence on the autocorrelation structure of hemispheric-mean temperatures. - Science 282: 1676-1679.
94. Wissel, C., Stephan, T. and Zaschke, S.-H. 1994. Modelling extinction and survival of small populations. - In: Remmert, H. (ed.), Minimum animal populations (Ecological studies; 106). Springer-Verlag, pp. 67-103.
95. Zucchini, W., Adamson, P. and McNeill, L. 1992. A model of southern African rainfall. - S. Afr. J. Sci. 88: 103-109.