A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volumn 365, Issue 1857, 2007, Pages 1993-2028

  Murphy, J M ^a   Booth, B B B ^a   Collins, M ^a   Harris, G R ^a   Sexton, D M H ^a   Webb, M J ^a  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bayesian inference; Downscaling; Earth system modelling; HadCM3; Pattern scaling; Perturbed physics ensembles

Indexed keywords

EID: 34547191081     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2077     Document Type: Review

References (134)

1. Allen, M. R. &: Ingram, W. J. 2002 Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419, 224-232. (doi:10.1038/nature01092)
2. Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Schnur, R. & Delworth, T. L. 2000 Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change. Nature 407, 617-620. (doi:10.1038/35036559)
3. Allen, M. R., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A. & Stainforth, D. A. 2006 Model error in weather and climate forecasting. In Predictability of weather and climate (eds T. Palmer & R. Hagedorn), pp. 391-427. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
4. Anderson, T. L., Charlson, R. J., Schwartz, S. E., Knutti, R., Boucher, O., Rodhe, H. & Heitzenberg, J. 2003 Climate forcing by aerosols - a hazy picture. Science 300, 1103-1104. (doi:10.1126/science.1084777)
5. Anderson, J. L. et al. 2004 The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: evaluation with prescribed SST simulations. J. Clim. 17, 4641-4673. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<4089:IOALMO>2.0. CO;2)
6. Andreae, M. O., Jones, C. D. & Cox, P. M. 2005 Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future. Nature 435, 1187-1190. (doi:10.1038/nature03671)
7. Annan, J. D. & Hargreaves, J. C. 2006 Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L06704. (doi:10.1029/2005GL025259)
8. Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., Edwards, N. R. & Marsh, R. 2005a Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter. Ocean Model. 8, 135-154. (doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.12.004)
9. Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C., Ohgaito, R., Abe-Ouchi, A. & Emori, S. 2005b Efficiently constraining climate sensitivity with ensembles of paleoclimate simulations. SOLA 1, 181-184. (doi:10.2151/sola.2005- 047)
10. Archer, D. & Buffett, B. 2005 Time-dependent response of the global ocean clathrate reservoir to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 6, Q03002. (doi:10.1029/2004GC000854)
11. 2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations. Clim. Dynam. 26, 489-511. (doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0097-1)
12. Bell, V. A., Kay, A. L., Jones, R. G. & Moore, R. J. 2006 Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 11, 532-549.
13. Betts, R. A., Cox, P. M., Collins, M., Harris, P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C. D. 2004 The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theor. Appl. Clim. 78, 157-175.
14. Blackmon, M. et al. 2001 The community climate system model. Butt. Am. Met. Soc. 82, 2357-2376. (doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2001) 082<2357:TCCSM>2.3.CO;2)
15. Boer, G. J. & Yu, B. 2003 Dynamical aspects of climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1135. (doi: 10.1029/2002GL016549)
16. Bony, S. & Dufresne, J.-L. 2005 Marine boundary layer clouds at the heart of cloud feedback uncertainties in climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L20 806. (doi:10.1029/2005GL023851)
17. Bony, S., Dufresne, J.-L., Le Treut, H., Morcrette, J.-J. & Senior, C. A. 2004 On dynamic and thermodynamic components of cloud changes, Clim. Dynam. 22, 71-86. (doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0369-6)
18. Bony, S. et al. 2006 How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes? J. Clim. 19, 3445-3482. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3819.1)
19. Boyle, J. S. 2006 Upper level atmospheric stationary waves in the twentieth century climate of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change simulations. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D14101. (doi:10.1029/ 2005JD006612)
20. Braganza, K., Karoly, D. J., Hirst, A. C., Mann, M. E., Stott, P., Stouffer, R. J. & Tett, S. F. B. 2003 Simple indices of global climate variability and change: part I - variability and correlation structure, Clim. Dynam. 20, 491-502.
21. Buonomo, E., Jones, R., Huntingford, C. & Hannaford, J. 2007 On the robustness of changes in extreme precipitation over Europe from two high resolution climate change simulations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 65-81. (doi:10.1002/qj.13)
22. Christensen, O. B., Christensen, J. H., Machenhauer, B. & Botzet, M. 1998 Very high-resolution regional climate simulations over Scandinavia - present climate. J. Clim. 11, 3204-3229. (doi:10.1175/1520- 0442(1998)011<3204:VHRRCS>2.0.CO;2)
23. Christensen, J. H., Räisänen, J., Iversen, T., Bjørge, D., Christensen, O. B. & Rummukainen, M. 2001 A synthesis of regional climate change simulations - a Scandinavian perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 1003-1006. (doi:10.1029/2000GL012196)
24. Christensen, T. R. et al. 2004 Thawing sub-arctic permafrost: effects on vegetation and methane emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L04501. (doi:10.1029/2003GL018680)
25. Christensen, J. H., Carter, T. R., Rummukainen, M. & Amanatidis, G. 2007 Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the PRUDENCE project, Clim. Change 81, 1-6. (doi:10.1007/S10584-006- 9211-6)
26. Clark, R., Brown, S. & Murphy, J. 2006 Modelling northern hemisphere summer heat extreme changes and their uncertainties using a physics ensemble of climate sensitivity experiments. J. Clim. 19, 4418-4435. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3877.1)
27. Collins, M., Booth, B. B. B., Harris, G., Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H. & Webb, M. J. 2006 Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change. Clim. Dynam. 27, 127-147. (doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0121-0)
28. Collins, M., Brierley, C. M., MacVean, M., Booth, B. B. B. & Harris, G. R. 2007 The sensitivity of the rate of transient climate change to ocean physics perturbations. J. Clim. 20, 2315-2320.
29. Cox, P. M. 2001 Description of the TRIFFID dynamic global vegetation model. Technical Note 24, Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK.
30. Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Bunton, C. B., Essery, R. L. H., Rowntree, P. & Smith, J. 1999 The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity. Clim. Dynam. 15, 183-203. (doi:10.1007/s003820050276)
31. Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A. & Totterdell, I. 2000 Acceleration of global warming due to carbon cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408, 184-187. (doi:10.1038/35041539)
32. Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A. & Totterdell, I. J. 2001 Modelling vegetation and the carbon cycle as interactive elements of the climate system. In Meteorology at the millennium (ed. R. Pearce), pp. 259-279. New York, NY: Academic Press.
33. Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Collins, M., Harris, P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C. D. 2004 Amazon dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theor. Appl. Clim. 78, 137-156.
34. Covey, C., AchutaRao, K. M., Cubasch, U., Jones, P., Lambert, S. J., Mann, M. E., Phillips, T. J. & Taylor, K. E. 2003 An overview of results from the coupled model intercomparison project. Global Planet. Change 37, 103-133. (doi:10.1016/80921-8181(02)00193-5)
35. Cubasch, U., Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Stouffer, R. J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C. A., Raper, S. & Yap, K. S. 2001 Projections of future climate change. In Climate change 2001: the scientific basis (eds J. T. Houghton et al.). Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 525-582. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
36. Dai, A. 2006 Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models. J. Clim. 18, 4605-4630. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3884.1)
37. Denis, B., Laprise, R., Caya, D. & Côté, J. 2002 Downscaling ability of one-way-nested regional climate models: the big-brother experiment, Clim. Dynam. 18, 627-646. (doi:10.1007/s00382-001- 0201-0)
38. Dessai, S., Lu, X. & Hulme, M. 2005 Limited sensitivity analysis of regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D19 108. (doi:10.1029/2005JD005919)
39. Durman, C. F., Gregory, J. M., Hassell, D. C., Jones, R. G. & Murphy, J. M. 2001 A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 1005-1015. (doi:10.1002/qj.49712757316)
40. Essery, R. L. H., Best, M. J., Betts, R. A., Cox, P. M. & Taylor, C. M. 2003 Explicit representation of subgrid heterogeneity in a GCM land-surface scheme. J. Hydromet. 4, 530-543. (doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003) 004<0530:EROSHI>2.0.CO;2)
41. Forest, C. E., Stone, P. H. & Sokolov, A. P. 2006 Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L01705. (doi:10.1029/2005GL023977)
42. Fowler, H. J., Ekström, M., Kilsby, C. G. & Jones, P. D. 2005 New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 1. Assessment of control climate. J. Hydrol. 300, 212-233. (doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.017)
43. Frame, D. J., Booth, B. B. B., Kettleborough, J. A., Stainforth, D. A., Gregory, J. M., Collins, M. & Allen, M. R. 2005 Constraining climate forecasts: the role of prior assumptions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L09702. (doi:10.1029/2004GL022241)
44. Frei, C., Christensen, J. H., Déqué, M., Jacob, D., Jones, R. G. & Vidale, P. L. 2003 Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. J. Geophys. Res. 108, D34 124.
45. Frei, C. et al. 2006 Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D06105. (doi:10.1029/2005JD005965)
46. Friedlingstein, P., Bopp, L., Schnur, R. & Zeng, N. 2006 Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. J. Clim. 19, 3337-3353. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3800.1)
47. Furrer, R., Sain, S. R., Nychka, D., & Meehl, G. A. In press. Multivariate Bayesian analysis of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Environ. Ecol. Stat.
48. Giorgi, F. & Mearns, L. O. 2003 Probability of regional climate change based on the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1629. (doi:10.1029/2003GL017130)
49. Goldstein, M. & Rougier, J. C. 2004 Probabilistic formulations for transferring inferences from mathematical models to physical systems. SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 26, 467-487. (doi:10.1137/S106482750342670X)
50. Good, P. & Lowe, J. 2006 Emergent behaviour and uncertainty in multi-model climate projections of precipitation trends at small scales. J. Clim. 27, 357-375.
51. Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H. T., Gregory, J. M., Johns, T. C., Mitchell, J. F. B. & Wood, R. A. 2000 The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dynam. 16, 147-168. (doi:10.1007/s003820050010)
52. Greene, A. M., Goddard, L. & Lall, U. 2006 Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections. J. Clim. 19, 4326-4346. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3864.1)
53. Hagemann, S., Machenhauer, B., Jones, R., Christensen, O., Deque, M., Jacob, D. & Vidale, P. 2004 Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe. Clim. Dynam. 23, 547-607. (doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0444-7)
54. Harris, G., Sexton, D. M. H., Booth, B. B. B., Collins, M., Murphy, J. M. & Webb, M. J. 2006 Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations, Clim. Dynam. 27, 357-375. (doi:10.1007/s00382-006- 0142-8)
55. Hegerl, G. C., Crowley, T. J., Hyde, W. T. & Frame, D. J. 2006 Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature 440, 1029-1032. (doi:10.1038/nature04679)
56. Hewitt, C. D., Senior, C. A. & Mitchell, J. F. B. 2001 The impact of dynamic sea ice on the climatology and climate sensitivity of a GCM: a study of past, present and future climates. Clim. Dynam. 17, 655-668. (doi:10.1007/s003820000140)
57. Hostetler, S. 1994 Hydrologic and atmospheric models: the problem of discordant scales: an editorial comment. Clim. Change 27, 345-350. (doi:10.1007/BF01096266)
58. Hulme, M. et al. 2002 Climate-change scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02 scientific report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. School of Environmental Sciences. University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, pp. 120.
59. Huth, R. 1999 Statistical downscaling in central Europe: evaluation of methods and potential predictors. Clim. Res. 13, 91-101.
60. Jacob, D. et al. 2007 An intercomparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Clim. Change 81, 31-52. (doi:10.1007/S10584-006-9213-4)
61. Johns, T. C. et al. 2003 Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios. Clim. Dynam. 20, 583-612.
62. Johns, T. C. et al. 2006 The new Hadley Centre climate model HadGEMl: evaluation of coupled simulations. J. Clim. 19, 1327-1353. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3712.1)
63. Johnson, C. E., Stevenson, D. S., Collins, W. J. & Derwent, R. G. 2001 Role of climate feedback on methane and ozone studied with a coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 1723-1726. (doi:10.1029/2000GL011996)
64. 2. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 2, 166-172. (doi:10.1006/asle.2001.0041)
65. Jones, R. G., Murphy, J. M. & Noguer, M. 1995 Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional climate model. I: assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 121, 1413-1449.
66. Jones, A., Roberts, D. L., Woodage, M. J. & Johnson, C. E. 2001 Indirect sulphate aerosol forcing in a climate model with an interactive sulphur cycle. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 20 293-20 310. (doi:10.1029/ 2000JD000089)
67. 2 and sulphate aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1479. (doi:10.1029/2003GL016867)
68. Jones, C. D., Cox, P. & Huntingford, C. 2003b Uncertainty in climate-carbon cycle projections associated with the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature. Tellus B 55, 642-648. (doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.01440.x)
69. Jones, G. S., Jones, A., Roberts, D. L., Stott, P. A. & Williams, K. D. 2005 Sensitivity of global-scale climate change attribution results to inclusion of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L14 701. (doi:10.1029/2005GL023370)
70. Kalnay, E. et al. 1996 The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 437-471. (doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996) 077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2)
71. Kennedy, M. & O'Hagan, A. 2001 Bayesian calibration of computer models. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B 63, 425-464. (doi:10.1111/1467-9868. 00294)
72. Kettleborough, J. A., Booth, B. B. B., Stott, P. A. & Allen, M. R. 2007 Estimates of uncertainty in predictions of global mean surface temperature. J. Clim. 20, 843-855. (doi:10.1175/JCLI4012.1)
73. Kilsby, C. G., Jones, P. D., Burton, A., Ford, A. C., Fowler, H. J., Harpham, C., James, P., Smith, A. & Wilby, R. L. In press. A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environ. Model. Software.
74. 2 stabilization profiles. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L20 707. (doi:10.1029/2005GL023294)
75. Knutti, R., Meehl, G. A., Allen, M. R. & Stainforth, D. A. 2006 Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. J. Clim. 19, 4224-4233. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3865.1)
76. Lambert, S. J. & Boer, G. J. 2001 CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim. Dynam. 17, 83-106. (doi:10.1007/PL00013736)
77. Lambert, S. J. & Fyfe, J. C. 2006 Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Clim. Dynam. 26, 713-728. (doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0110-3)
78. Laprise, R., Caya, D., Frigon, A. & Paquin, D. 2003 Current and perturbed climate as simulated by the second-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-II) over northwestern North America. Clim. Dynam. 21, 405-421. (doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0342-4)
79. Lopez, A., Tebaldi, C., New, M., Stainforth, D. A., Allen, M. R. & Kettleborough, J. A. 2006 Two approaches to quantifying uncertainty in global temperature changes. J. Clim. 19, 4785-4796. (doi:10.1175/ JCLI3895.1)
80. McKay, M. D., Beckman, R. J. & Conover, W. J. 1979 A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics 21, 239-245. (doi:10.2307/1268522)
81. Mearns, L. O., Mavromatis, E., Tsvetsinskaya, E., Hays, C. & Easterling, W. 1999 Comparative responses of EPIC and CERES crop models to high and low resolution climate change scenario. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 6623-6646. (doi:10.1029/1998JD200061)
82. Mearns, L. O., Hulme, M., Carter, T. R., Leemans, R., Lal, M. & Whetton, P. 2001 Climate scenario development. In Climate change 2001: the scientific basis (eds J. T. Houghton et al). Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 739-768. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
83. Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., McAvaney, B., Latif, M. & Stouffer, R. J. 2005a Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 86, 89-93. (doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-1-89)
84. Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M. & Tebaldi, C. 2005b Understanding future patterns of precipitation extremes in climate model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L18 719. (doi:10.1029/ 2005GL023680)
85. Meehl, G. A. et al 2007 Global climate projections. In Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H. L. Miller). Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
86. Mitchell, J. F. B. 2003 Pattern scaling, Clim. Change 60, 217-242. (doi:10.1023/A:1026035305597)
87. Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., Collins, M. & Stainforth, D. A. 2004 Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 429, 768-772. (doi:10.1038/nature02771)
88. Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. 2000 Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
89. Noguer, M., Jones, R. G. & Murphy, J. M. 1998 Effect of systematic errors in the lateral boundary forcing on the climatology of a nested regional climate model over Europe. Clim. Dynam. 14, 691-712. (doi:10.1007/s003820050249)
90. Osborn, T. J. & Hulme, M. 1997 Development of a relationship between station and grid-box rainday frequencies for climate model evaluation. J. Clim. 10, 1885-1908. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1885: DOARBS>2.0.CO;2)
91. Palmer, T. N. & Räisänen, J. 2002 Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature 415, 514-517. (doi:10.1038/415512a)
92. Palmer, J. R. & Totterdell, I. J. 2001 Production and export in a global ocean ecosystem model. Deep Sea Res. 48, 1169-1198. (doi:10.1016/80967-0637(00)00080-7)
93. Palmer, T. N., Doblas-Reyes, A., Weisheimer, A., Rodwell, M. & Jung, T. Submitted. Reliability of climate-change projections of precipitation: towards "seamless" climate prediction.
94. Piani, C., Frame, D. J., Stainforth, D. A. & Allen, M. R. 2005 Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L23 825. (doi:10.1029/ 2005GL024452)
95. Raich, J. & Schlesinger, W. 1992 The global carbon dioxide flux in soil respiration and its relationship to vegetation and climate. Tellus B 44, 81-99. (doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889.1992.t01-1-00001.x)
96. 2-induced climate change in CMIP2 experiments: quantification of agreement and role of internal variability. J. Clim. 14, 2088-2104. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014< 2088:CICCIC>2.0.CO;2)
97. 2-induced changes in interannual temperature and precipitation variability in 19 CMIP2 experiments. J. Clim. 15, 2395-2411. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2395: CICIIT>2.0.CO;2)
98. 2-induced changes in angular momentum in CMIP2 experiments. J. Clim. 16, 132-143. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0132:CICIAA>2.0.CO;2)
99. 2 on monthly-to-annual precipitation extremes: analysis of the CMIP2 experiments, Clim. Dynam. 24, 309-323. (doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0510-1)
100. Räisänen, J. & Ruokolainen, L. 2006 Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique. Tellus A 58, 461-472.
101. Raper, S. C. B., Gregory, J. M. & Stouffer, R. J. 2002 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake on AOGCM transient temperature response. J. Clim. 15, 124-130. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002) 015<0124:TROCSA>2.0.CO;2)
102. Rinke, A. & Dethloff, K. 2000 On the sensitivity of a regional Arctic climate model to initial and boundary conditions, Clim. Res. 14, 101-113.
103. Rodwell, M. J. & Palmer, T. N. 2007 Using NWP to assess climate models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 129-146. (doi:10.1002/qj.23)
104. Rougier, J. C. 2007 Probabilistic inference for future climate using an ensemble of climate model evaluations. Clim. Change 81, 247-264. (doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9)
105. Rougier, J. & Sexton, D. M. H. 2007 Inference in ensemble experiments. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 365, 2133-2143. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2071)
106. Rougier, J. C., Sexton, D. M. H., Murphy, J. M. & Stainforth, D. A. Submitted. Emulating the sensitivity of the HadAM3 climate model using different but related experiments. Rowell, D. P. 2006 A demonstration of the uncertainty in projections of UK climate change resulting from regional model formulation, Clim. Change 79, 243-256. (doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9100-z)
107. Rowntree, P. R. 1998 Global average climate forcing and response since 1750. Int. J. Climatol. 18, 355-377. (doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097- 0088(19980330)18:4<355::AID-JOC241>3.0.CO;2-B)
108. Schlesinger, M. E., Andronova, N. G., Entwistle, B., Ghanem, A., Ramankutty, N., Wang, W. & Yang, F. 1997 Modelling and simulation of climate and climate change. In Past and present variability of the solar-terrestrial system, vol. 133 (eds G. C. Catagnoli & A. Provenzale). International School of Physics Enrico Fermi, pp. 389-429. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: IOS Press.
109. Schneider von Deimling, T., Held, H., Ganopolski, A. & Rahmstorf, S. 2006 Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate. Clim. Dynam. 27, 149-163. (doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8)
110. Selten, F. M., Branstator, G. W., Kliphuis, M. & Dijkstra, H. A. 2004 Tropical origins for recent and future northern hemisphere climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L21 205. (doi:10.1029/2004GL020739)
111. Sexton, D. M. H., Murphy, J. M. & Collins, M. In preparation a. Multivariate prediction using imperfect climate models. Part I. Outline of methodology.
112. Sexton, D. M. H., Murphy, J. M., Collins, M. & Webb, M. J. In preparation b. Multivariate prediction using imperfect climate models. Part II. Using a large number of observations to constrain a climate prediction.
113. Smith, L. A. 2002 What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 2487-2492. (doi:10.1073/pnas.012580599)
114. Soden, B. J. & Held, I. M. 2006 An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J. Clim. 19, 3354-3360. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3799.1)
115. Stainforth, D. A. et al. 2005 Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433, 403-406. (doi:10.1038/nature03301)
116. Stott, P. A. & Kettleborough, J. A. 2002 Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature 416, 723-726. (doi:10.1038/416723a)
117. Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Allen, M. R., Delworth, T. L., Gregory, J. M., Meehl, G. A. & Sauter, B. D. 2006a Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming. J. Clim. 19, 3055-3069. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3802.1)
118. Stott, P. A., Kettleborough, J. A. & Allen, M. R. 2006b Uncertainty in continental-scale temperature predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L02708. (doi:10.1029/2005GL024423)
119. Taylor, K. E. 2001 Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 7183-7192. (doi:10.1029/2000JD900719)
120. Tebaldi, C., Smith, R. W., Nychka, D. & Mearns, L. O. 2005 Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles. J. Clim. 18, 1524-1540. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3363.1)
121. Tebaldi, C., Hayhoe, K., Arblaster, J. M. & Meehl, G. A. 2006 Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Clim. Change 79, 185-211. (doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4)
122. Tett, S. F. B. et al. 2002 Estimation of natural and anthropogenic contributions to twentieth century temperature change. J. Geophys Res. 107, 4306. (doi:10.1029/2000JD000028)
123. Uppala, S. M. et al. 2005 The ERA-40 reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 2961-3012. (doi:10.1256/OJ.04.176)
124. Vidale, L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Seneviratne, S. I. & Schär, C. 2003 Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 4586. (doi:10.1029/2002JD002810)
125. Webb, M. J. et al. 2006 On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles. Clim. Dynam. 27, 17-38. (doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0111-2)
126. Weisheimer, A. & Palmer, T. N. 2005 Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal-mean temperatures under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L20 721. (doi:10.1029/ 2005GL023365)
127. Wielicki, B. A. et al. 2002 Evidence for large decadal variability in the tropical mean radiative energy budget. Science 295, 841-844. (doi:10.1126/science.1065837)
128. Wigley, T. M. L., Ammann, C. M., Santer, B. D. & Raper, S. C. B. 2005 Effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing. J. Geophys. Res. 110, D09107. (doi:10.1029/2004JD005557)
129. Wilby, R. L. & Harris, I. 2006 A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resour. Res. 42, W02419. (doi:10.1029/ 2005WR004065)
130. Wilby, R. L., Dawson, C. W. & Barrow, E. M. 2002 SDSM - a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. Environ. Model. Software 17, 147-159. (doi:10.1016/81364-8152(01)00060-3)
131. Wilby, R. L. et al. 2004 Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from statistical downscaling methods, IPCC task group on data and scenario support for impact and climate analysis (TGICA). See http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/guidelines/StatDown_Guide.pdf.
132. Wild, M. 2005 Solar radiation budgets in atmospheric model intercomparisons from a surface perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L07704. (doi:10.1029/2005GL022421)
133. Williams, K. D. et al. 2005 Evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change in an intercomparison of climate models. Clim. Dynam. 26, 145-165. (doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0067-7)
134. Yokohata, T., Emori, S., Nozawa, T., Tsushima, Y., Ogura, T. & Kimoto, M. 2005 Climate response to volcanic forcing: validation of climate sensitivity of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L21 710. (doi:10.1029/2005GL023542)