New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 1. Assessment of control climate

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 300, Issue 1-4, 2005, Pages 212-233

  Fowler, H J ^a   Ekstrom M ^b   Kilsby, C G ^a   Jones, P D ^b  

^a NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; Extremes; Floods; Rainfall; Regional climate models; UK

Indexed keywords

INDIVIDUAL GRID BOX ANALYSIS; REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; SPATIAL RESOLUTION;

CLIMATE CONTROL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ESTIMATION; FLOODS; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; WATER RESOURCES;

RAIN;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; FLOODING; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RAINFALL;

EASTERN HEMISPHERE; EURASIA; EUROPE; UNITED KINGDOM; WESTERN EUROPE; WORLD;

EID: 9944245578     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.017     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. R.J. Allen, and A.T. Degaetano Re-evaluation of extreme rainfall areal reduction factors American Meteorological Society 13th Conference on Applied Meteorology, May 13th-14th, Oregon 2002
2. M. Brunetti, L. Buffoni, M. Maugeri, and T. Nanni Precipitation intensity trends in northern Italy International Journal of Climatology 20 2000 1017 1031
3. C. Brunsdon, J. McClatchey, and D.J. Unwin Spatial variations in the average rainfall-altitude relationship in Great Britain: an approach using geographically weighted regression International Journal of Climatology 21 2001 455 466
4. D. Crichton UK and global insurance responses to flood hazard Water International 27 2002 119 131
5. DEFRA, 2001. National appraisal of assets at risk from flooding and coastal erosion, including the potential impact of climate change. DEFRA Technical Report.
6. C.F. Durman, J.M. Gregory, D.C. Hassell, R.G. Jones, and J.M. Murphy A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 127 2001 1005 1015
7. B. Efron Bootstrap methods: another look at the jack-knife Annals of Statistics 7 1979 1 26
8. B. Efron, and R.J. Tibshirani An Introduction to the Bootstrap 1993 Chapman & Hall New York 456 pp
9. M. Ekström, H.J. Fowler, C.G. Kilsby, and P.D. Jones New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 2. Future estimates and use in impact studies Journal of Hydrology 2004
10. H.J. Fowler, and C.G. Kilsby A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000 International Journal of Climatology 23 2003 1313 1334
11. H.J. Fowler, and C.G. Kilsby Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall Geophysical Research Letters 30 13 2003 1720 doi: 10.1029/2003GL017327
12. C. Frei, and C. Schär Detection probability of trends in rare events: theory and application to heavy precipitation in the alpine region Journal of Climate 14 2001 1568 1584
13. C. Gordon, C. Cooper, C.A. Senior, H. Banks, J.M. Gregory, T.C. Johns, J.F.B. Mitchell, and R.A. Wood The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments Climate Dynamics 16 2000 147 168
14. J.M. Gregory, P.D. Jones, and T.M.L. Wigley Precipitation in Britain: an analysis of area-average data updated to 1989 International Journal of Climatology 11 1991 331 345
15. K.J. Hennessey, J.M. Gregory, and J.F.B. Mitchell Change in daily precipitation under enhanced greenhouse conditions Climate Dynamics 13 1997 667 680
16. J.R.M. Hosking, and J.R. Wallis The effect of intersite dependence on regional flood frequency analysis Water Resources Research 24 1988 588 600
17. J.R.M. Hosking, and J.R. Wallis Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach based on L-moments 1997 Cambridge University Press Cambridge
18. J.R.M. Hosking, J.R. Wallis, and E.F. Wood Estimation of the generalised extreme-value distribution by the method of probability-weighted moments Technometrics 27 1985 251 261
19. M. Hulme, G.J. Jenkins, X. Lu, J.R. Turnpenny, T.D. Mitchell, R.G. Jones, J. Lowe, J.M. Murphy, and D. Hassell Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02 Scientific Report 2002 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich 120 pp
20. C. Huntingford, R.G. Jones, C. Prudhomme, R. Lamb, J.H.C. Gash, and D.A. Jones Regional climate-model predictions of extreme rainfall for a changing climate Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 129 2003 1607 1621
21. IH Flood Estimation Handbook, 5 volumes 1999 CEH Wallingford (formerly the Institute of Hydrology) Wallingford
22. IPCC Technical summary N. Nakicenovic B. Swart Special Report on Emissions Scenarios 2000 Cambridge University Press Cambridge 570 pp
23. T. Iwashima, and R. Yamamoto A statistical analysis of the extreme events: long-term trend of heavy daily precipitation Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 71 1993 637 640
24. T.C. Johns, R.E. Carnell, J.F. Crossley, J.F.B. Mitchell, C.A. Senior, S.F.B. Tett, and R.A. Wood The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup and validation Climate Dynamics 13 1997 103 134
25. T.C. Johns, J.M. Gregory, W.J. Ingram, C.E. Johnson, A. Jones, J.A. Lowe, J.F.B. Mitchell, D.L. Roberts, D.M.H. Sexton, D.S. Stevenson, S.F.B. Tett, and M.J. Woodage Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios. Climate Dynamics 20 2003 583 612
26. P.D. Jones, and D. Conway Precipitation in the British Isles: an analysis of area-average data updated to 1995 International Journal of Climatology 17 1997 427 438
27. P.D. Jones, and P.A. Reid Assessing future changes in extreme precipitation over Britain using regional climate model integrations International Journal of Climatology 21 2001 1337 1356
28. T.R. Karl, and R.W. Knight Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency and intensity in the United States Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79 1998 231 241
29. R. Lamb To what extent can the October/November 200 floods be attributed to climate change DEFRA FD2304 Final Report 2001 40 pp
30. J.H. Lawrimore, M.S. Halpert, G.D. Bell, M.J. Menne, B. Lyon, R.C. Schnell, K.L. Gleason, D.R. Easterling, W. Thiaw, W.J. Wright, R.R. Heim, D.A. Robinson, and L. Alexander Climate assessment for 2000 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82 2001 S1 S62
31. J. Leggett, W.J. Pepper, and R.J. Swart Emission scenarios for the IPCC: an update J.T. Houghton B.A. Callander S.K. Varney Climate Change 1992: the Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment 1992 Cambridge University Press Cambridge 69 95
32. T.J. Marsh The 2000/2001 floods in the UK: a brief overview Weather 56 2000 343 345
33. K. McGuffie, A. Henderson-Sellers, N. Holbrook, Z. Kothavala, O. Balachova, and J. Hoekstra Assessing simulations of daily temperature and precipitation variability with global climate models for present and enhanced greenhouse climates International Journal of Climatology 19 1999 1 26
34. J.F.B. Mitchell, T.C. Johns, J.M. Gregory, and S.F.B. Tett Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate levels Nature 376 1995 501 504
35. J. Murphy An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate Journal of Climate 12 1999 2256 2284
36. J. Murphy Predictions of climate change over Europe using statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques International Journal of Climatology 20 2000 489 501
37. NERC Flood Studies Report 1975 Institute of Hydrology Wallingford
38. T.J. Osborn Areal and point precipitation intensity changes: implications for the application of climate models Geophysical Research Letters 24 1997 2829 2832
39. T.J. Osborn, and M. Hulme Development of a relationship between station and grid-box rainday frequencies for climate model evaluation Journal of Climate 10 1997 1885 1908
40. T.J. Osborn, and M. Hulme Evidence for trends in heavy rainfall events over the UK Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series A 360 2002 1313 1325
41. T.J. Osborn, M. Hulme, P.D. Jones, and T.A. Basnett Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation International Journal of Climatology 20 2000 347 364
42. T.N. Palmer, and J. Räisänen Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate Nature 415 2002 512 514
43. J.P. Palutikof, B.B. Brabson, D.H. Lister, and S.T. Adcock A review of methods to calculate extreme wind speeds Meteorological Applications 6 1999 119 132
44. V.D. Pope, M.L. Gallani, P.R. Rowntree, and R.A. Stratton The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3 Climate Dynamics 16 2000 123 146
45. D.N. Reed Simulation of time series of temperature and precipitation over eastern England by atmospheric general circulation model Journal of Climatology 6 1986 233 253
46. E.J. Stewart Areal reduction factors for design storm construction: joint use of raingauge and radar data. New directions for surface water modeling Proceedings of the Baltimore Symposium, May 1989. IAHS Publication No. 181 1989
47. T.M.L. Wigley, and P.D. Jones England and Wales precipitation: a discussion of recent changes in variability and an update to 1985 Journal of Climatology 7 1987 231 246
48. T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Lough, and P.D. Jones Spatial patterns of precipitation in England and Wales and a revised, homogeneous England and Wales precipitation series Journal of Climatology 4 1984 1 25
49. P.M. Zhai, A.J. Sun, F.M. Ren, X.N. Liu, B. Gao, and Q. Zhang Chances of climate extremes in China Climatic Change 42 1999 203 218