Determinants of the biogeographical distribution of butterflies in boreal regions

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 33, Issue 10, 2006, Pages 1764-1778

  Luoto, M ^a   Heikkinen, R K ^a   Poyry J ^a   Saarinen, K ^b  

^a FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE   (Finland)

^b Etela karjalan Allergia ja Ymparistoinstituutti   (Finland)

Author keywords

AUC; Butterfly atlas; Climate; Distribution; Finland; GRASP; Hierarchical partitioning; Land cover

Indexed keywords

BUTTERFLY; CLIMATE EFFECT; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; GRAPHICAL METHOD; LAND COVER; MODEL VALIDATION; NICHE; NUMERICAL MODEL;

EURASIA; EUROPE; FINLAND; NORTHERN EUROPE; SCANDINAVIA;

PAPILIONOIDEA;

EID: 33748545281     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: 13652699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2005.01395.x     Document Type: Article

References (101)

1. Araújo, M.B. (2003) The coincidence of people and biodiversity in Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 5-12.
2. Araújo, M.B., Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W. & Erhard, M. (2005) Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology, 11, 1504-1513.
3. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W. & Pearson, R.G. (2006) Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. Journal of Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01482.x.
4. Atlas of Finland (1988) Climate, Folio 131. National Board of Survey & Geographical Society of Finland, Helsinki.
5. Austin, M.P. (2002) Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecological Modelling, 157, 101-118.
6. Bailey, S.-A., Haines-Young, R.H. & Watkins, C. (2002) Species presence in fragmented landscapes: modelling of species requirements at the national level. Biological Conservation, 108, 307-316.
7. Bakkenes, M., Alkemade, J., Ihle, F., Leemans, R. & Latour, J. (2002) Assessing the effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Global Change Biology, 8, 390-407.
8. Beaumont, L.J. & Hughes, L. (2002) Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change. Global Change Biology, 8, 954-971.
9. Bergman, K.-O., Askling, J., Ekberg, O., Ignell, H., Wahlman, H. & Milberg, P. (2004) Landscape effects on butterfly assemblages in an agricultural region. Ecography, 27, 619-628.
10. Berry, P., Dawson, T., Harrison, P. & Pearson, R. (2002) Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11, 453-462.
11. ter Braak, C.J.F. & Smilauer, P. (2002) CANOCO reference manual and Canodraw for Windows user's guide: software for canonical community ordination (version 4.5). Microcomputer Power, Ithaca, NY, USA.
12. Chevan, A. & Sutherland, M. (1991) Hierarchical partitioning. The American Statistician, 45, 90-96.
13. Coudun, C., Gegout, J.-C., Piedallu, C. & Rameau, J.C. (2006) Soil nutritional factors improve models of plant species distribution: an illustration with Acer campestre (L.) in France. Journal of Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2005.01443.x.
14. Currie, D.J. (1991) Energy and large-scale patterns of animal-and plant-species richness. The American Naturalist, 137, 27-49.
15. Dennis, R.L.H., ed. (1992) The ecology of butterflies in Britain. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
16. Dennis, R.L.H. (1993) Butterflies and climate change. Manchester University Press, Manchester.
17. Dennis, R.L.H., Shreeve, T.G. & Williams, W.R. (1995) Taxonomic differentiation in species richness gradients among European butterflies (Papilionoidea, Hesperioidea): contribution of macroevolutionary dynamics. Ecography, 18, 27-40.
18. Dennis, R.L.H., Williams, W.R. & Shreeve, T.G. (1998) Faunal structures among European butterflies: evolutionary implications of bias for geography, endemism and taxonomic affiliation. Ecography, 21, 181-203.
19. Dennis, R.L.H., Sparks, T.H. & Hardy, P.B. (1999) Bias in butterfly distribution maps: the effects of sampling effort. Journal of Insect Conservation, 3, 33-42.
20. Dirnböck, T., Dullinger, S. & Grabherr, G. (2003) A regional impact assessment of climate and land-use change on alpine vegetation. Journal of Biogeography, 30, 401-417.
21. Doledec, S., Chessel, D. & Gimaret-Carpentier, C. (2000) Niche separation in community analysis: a new method. Ecology, 81, 2914-2927.
22. Dray, S., Chessel, D. & Thiolouse, J. (2003) Co-inertia analysis and the linking of ecological data tables. Ecology, 84, 3078-3089.
23. European Commission (1994) EUR 12585 - CORINE land cover - technical guide. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg.
24. Eyre, M., Rushton, S., Luff, M. & Telfer, M. (2004) Predicting the distribution of ground beetle species (Coleoptera, Carabidea) in Britain using land cover variables. Journal of Environmental Management, 72, 163-174.
25. Fielding, A. & Bell, J. (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24, 38-49.
26. Franklin, J. (1995) Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography, 19, 474-499.
27. Gibson, L.A., Wilson, B.A., Cahill, D.M. & Hill, J. (2004) Spatial prediction of rufous bristlebird habitat in a coastal heathland: a GIS-based approach. Journal of Applied Ecology, 41, 213-223.
28. Guisan, A. & Hofer, U. (2003) Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography. Journal of Biogeography, 30, 1233-1243.
29. Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
30. H-Acevendo, D. & Currie, D. (2003) Does climate determine broad-scale patterns of species richness? A test of the causal link by natural experiment. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 461-473.
31. Hampe, A. (2004) Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 469-476.
32. Hardy, P.B. & Dennis, R.L.H. (1999) The impact of urban development on butterflies within a city region. Biodiversity and Conservation, 8, 1261-1279.
33. Härmä, P., Teiniranta, R., Törmä, M., Repo, R., Järvenpää, E. & Kallio, M. (2004) Production of CORINE2000 land cover data using calibrated LANDSAT 7 ETM satellite image mosaics and digital maps in Finland. IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium 20-24 September 2004, Vol. 4, pp. 2703-2706. IEEE, Anchorage, Alaska.
34. Hastie, T. & Tibshirani, R. (1990) Generalized additive models. Chapman and Hall, London.
35. Hawkins, B.A. & Porter, E.E. (2003) Water-energy balance and the geographic pattern of species richness of western Palearctic butterflies. Ecological Entomology, 28, 678-686.
36. Heikkinen, R.K., Birks, H.J.B. & Kalliola, R.J. (1998) A numerical analysis of the mesoscale distribution patterns of vascular plants in the Kevo Nature Reserve, northern Finland. Journal of Biogeography, 25, 123-146.
37. Heikkinen, R.K., Luoto, M., Virkkala, R. & Rainio, K. (2004) Effects of habitat cover, landscape structure and spatial variables on the abundance of birds in an agricultural-forest mosaic. Journal of Applied Ecology, 41, 824-835.
38. Hill, J.K., Thomas, C.D. & Huntley, B. (1999) Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in a butterfly's range margin. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 266, 1197-1206.
39. Hill, J.K., Thomas, C.D., Fox, R., Telfer, M.G., Willis, S.G., Asher, J. & Huntley, B. (2002) Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 269, 2163-2171.
40. Hill, J.K., Thomas, C.D. & Huntley, B. (2003) Modeling present and potential future ranges of European butterflies using climate response surfaces. Butterflies. Ecology and evolution taking flight (ed. by C. Bogs, W. Watt and P. Ehrlich), pp. 149-167. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
41. Huldén, L., Albrecht, A., Itämies, J., Malinen, P. & Wettenhovi, J. (2000) Atlas of Finnish Macrolepidoptera. Finnish Lepidopterologist Society and Finnish Natural History Museum, Helsinki.
42. Huntley, B. & Baxter, R.G. (2003) Insights on synenergies: models and methods. Climate change and biodiversity: synenergistic impacts (ed. by L. Hannah and T.E. Lovejoy), pp. 15-23. Conservation International, Washington, DC.
43. Huntley, B., Berry, P.M., Cramer, W. & McDonald, A.P. (1995) Modelling present and potential future ranges of some European higher plants using climate response surfaces. Journal of Biogeography, 22, 967-1001.
44. Huntley, B., Green, R.E., Collingham, Y.C., Hill, J.K., Willis, S.G., Bartlein, P.J., Cramer, W., Hagemeijer, W.J.M. & Thomas, C.J. (2004) The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level. Ecology Letters, 7, 417-426.
45. Hurlbert, S.H. (1984) Pseudoreplication and the design of ecological field experiments. Ecological Monographs, 54, 187-211.
46. de Jong, R., Vane-Wright, R.I. & Ackery, P.R. (1996) The higher classification of butterflies (Lepidoptera): problems and prospects. Entomologia Scandinavica, 27, 65-101.
47. Kerr, J.T. (2001) Butterfly species richness patterns in Canada: energy, heterogeneity, and the potential consequences of climate change. Conservation Ecology, 5, 10 [online].
48. Konvicka, M., Maradova, M., Benes, J., Fric, Z. & Kepka, P. (2003) Uphill shifts in distribution of butterflies in the Czech Republic: effects of changing climate detected on a regional scale. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 403-410.
49. Legendre, P. (1993) Spatial autocorrelation: trouble or new paradigm? Ecology, 74, 1659-1673.
50. Legendre, P. & Legendre, L. (1998) Numerical ecology, 2nd edn. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
51. Lehmann, A., Overton, J. & Leathwick, J. (2002) GRASP: generalized regression analysis and spatial prediction. Ecological Modelling, 157, 189-207.
52. Levin, S.A. (1992) The problem of pattern and scale in ecology. Ecology, 73, 1943-1967.
53. Luoto, M., Kuussaari, M., Rita, H., Salminen, J. & von Bonsdorff, T. (2001) Determinants of distribution and abundance in the Clouded apollo butterfly: a landscape ecological approach. Ecography, 24, 601-617.
54. Luoto, M., Pöyry, J., Heikkinen, R.K. & Saarinen, K. (2005) Uncertainty of bioclimate envelope models based on geographical distribution of species. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 575-584.
55. MacNally, R. (2000) Regression and model-building in conservation biology, biogeography and ecology: the distinction between - and reconciliation of - 'predictive' and explanatory models. Biodiversity and Conservation, 9, 655-671.
56. MacNally, R. & Walsh, C.J. (2004) Hierarchical partitioning public-domain software. Biodiversity and Conservation, 13, 659-660.
57. Maggini, R., Lehmann, A., Zimmerman, N.E. & Guisan, A. (2006) Improving generalized regression analysis for spatial predictions of forest communities. Journal of Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01465.x.
58. McCune, B. & Grace, J.B. (2002) Analysis of ecological communities. MjM Software Design, Gleneden Beach, OR.
59. Mikkola, K. (1997) Population trends of Finnish Lepidoptera during 1961-1996. Entomologica Fennica, 3, 121-143.
60. Myklestad, Å. & Birks, H.J.B. (1993) A numerical analysis of the distribution patterns of Salix L. species in Europe. Journal of Biogeography, 20, 1-32.
61. Opdam, P. & Wascher, D. (2004) Climate change meets habitat fragmentation: linking landscape and biogeographical scale levels in research and conservation. Biological Conservation, 117, 285-297.
62. Parmesan, C. (1996) Climate and species range. Nature, 382, 765-766.
63. Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
64. Parmesan, C., Ryrholm, N., Stefanescu, C., Hill, J.K., Thomas, C.D., Descimon, H., Huntley, B., Kaila, L., Kullberg, J., Tammaru, T., Tennent, J., Thomas, J.A. & Warren, M.S. (1999) Poleward shift of butterfly species' ranges associated with regional warming. Nature, 399, 579-583.
65. Pearson, R. & Dawson, T. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimatic envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
66. Pearson, R.G., Dawson, T.P. & Liu, C. (2004) Modelling species distributions in Britain: a hierarchical integration of climate and land-cover data. Ecography, 27, 285-298.
67. Pollard, E. (1988) Temperature, rainfall and butterfly numbers. Journal of Applied Ecology, 25, 819-828.
68. Pöyry, J., Lindgren, S., Salminen, J. & Kuussaari, M. (2004) Restoration of butterfly and moth communities in semi-natural grasslands by cattle grazing. Ecological Applications, 14, 1656-1670.
69. Quinn, G.P. & Keough, M.J. (2002) Experimental design and data analysis for biologists. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
70. R Development Core Team (2004) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. [Available at http://www.R-project.org].
71. Randin, C.F., Dirnböck, T., Dullinger, S., Zimmerman, N.E., Zappa, M. & Guisan, A. (2006) Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space? Journal of Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006. 01466.x.
72. Roy, D.B., Rothery, P., Moss, D., Pollard, E. & Thomas, J.A. (2001) Butterfly numbers and weather: predicting historical trends in abundance and the future effects of climate change. Journal of Animal Ecology, 70, 201-217.
73. Sætersdal, M., Birks, H.J.B. & Peglar, S.M. (1998) Predicting changes in Fennoscandian vascular-plant species richness as a result of future climatic change. Journal of Biogeography, 25, 111-122.
74. Saarinen, K. (2004) The national butterfly recording scheme in Finland (NAFI): results in 2004. Baptria, 29, 106-114.
75. Saarinen, K., Lahti, T. & Marttila, O. (2002) Population trends of Finnish butterflies (Lepidoptera: Hesperioidea, Papilionoidea) in 1991-2000. Biodiversity and Conservation, 12, 2147-2159.
76. Segurado, P. & Araújo, M. (2004) An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. Journal of Biogeography, 31, 1555-1569.
77. Söderström, B., Pärt, T. & Linnarsson, E. (2001) Grazing effects on between-year variation of farmland bird communities. Ecological Applications, 11, 1141-1150.
78. Stefanescu, C., Herrando, S. & Paramo, F. (2004) Butterfly species richness in the north-west Mediterranean Basin: the role of natural and human-induced factors. Journal of Biogeography, 31, 905-915.
79. Swets, K. (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240, 1285-1293.
80. Thioulouse, J., Chessel, D., Dolédec, S. & Olivier, J.-M. (1997) ADE-4: a multivariate analysis and graphical display software. Statistics and Computing, 7, 75-83.
81. Thioulouse, J., Simier, M. & Chessel, D. (2004) Simultaneous analysis of a sequence of paired ecological tables. Ecology, 85, 272-283.
82. Thomas, J.A. (1991) Rare species conservation: case studies of European butterflies. The scientific management of temperate communities for conservation: the 31st Symposium of the British Ecological Society, Southampton, 1989 (ed. by I.F. Spellerberg, F.B. Goldsmith and M.G. Morris), pp. 149-197. Blackwell Science, Cambridge.
83. Thomas, J.A. (1993) Holocene climate changes and warm man-made refugia may explain why a sixth of British butterflies possess unnatural early-successional habitats. Ecography, 16, 278-284.
84. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., Ferreira de Siqueira, M., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., Van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. & Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-148.
85. Thuiller, W. (2003) BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Global Change Biology, 9, 1353-1362.
86. Thuiller, W., Araújo, M. & Lavorel, S. (2004a) Do we need land-cover data to predict species distributions in Europe? Journal of Biogeography, 31, 353-361.
87. Thuiller, W., Araujo, M.B. & Lavorel, S. (2004b) Generalized models vs. classification tree analysis: predicting spatial distributions of plant species at different scales. Journal of Vegetation Science, 14, 669-680.
88. Tuhkanen, S. (1984) A circumboreal system of climatic-phytogeographical regions. Acta Botanica Fennica, 127, 1-50.
89. Turner, J.R.G., Gatehouse, C.M. & Corey, C.A. (1987) Does solar energy control organic diversity? Butterflies, moths and the British climate. Oikos, 48, 195-205.
90. Turner, J.R.G., Lennon, J.J. & Lawrenson, J.A. (1998) British bird species distributions and the energy theory. Nature, 335, 539-541.
91. Venables, W.N. & Ripley, B.D. (2002) Modern applied statistics with S. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
92. Venäläinen, A. & Heikinheimo, M. (2002) Meteorological data for agricultural applications. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 27, 1045-1050.
93. Virtanen, T. & Neuvonen, S. (1999) Climate change and macrolepidopteran biodiversity in Finland. Chemosphere: Global Change Science, 1, 439-448.
94. Wahlberg, N., Weingartner, E. & Nylin, S. (2003) Towards a better understanding of the higher systematics of Nymphalidae (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea). Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution, 28, 473-484.
95. Walther, G.R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T.J.C., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Bairlein, F. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389-395.
96. Warren, M.S., Hill, J.K., Thomas, J.A., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., Roy, D.B., Telfer, M.G., Jeffcoate, S., Harding, P., Jeffcoate, G., Willis, S.G., Greatorex-Davies, J.N., Moss, D. & Thomas, C.D. (2001) Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature, 414, 65-69.
97. Watson, D.M. & Peterson, A.T. (1999) Determinants of diversity in a naturally fragmented landscape: humid montane forest avifaunas of Mesoamerica. Ecography, 22, 582-589.
98. Weibull, A.-C., Östman, Ö. & Granqvist, Å. (2003) Species richness in agroecosystems: the effect of landscape, habitat and farm management. Biodiversity and Conservation, 12, 1335-1355.
99. Wood, S. & Augustin, N. (2002) GAMs with integrated model selection using penalized regression splines and applications to environmental modelling. Ecological Modelling, 157, 157-177.
100. Wood, B.C. & Pullin, A.S. (2002) Persistence of species in a fragmented urban landscape: the importance of dispersal ability and habitat availability for grassland butterflies. Biodiversity and Conservation, 11, 1451-1468.
101. Yee, T.W. & Mitchell, N.D. (1991) Generalized additive models in plant ecology. Journal of Vegetation Science, 2, 587-602.