A regional impact assessment of climate and land-use change on alpine vegetation

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 30, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 401-417

  Dirnböck, Thomas ^a,b   Dullinger, Stefan ^a   Grabherr, Georg ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA   (Austria)

^b ENVIRONMENT AGENCY AUSTRIA   (Austria)

Author keywords

Alpine plants; European Alps; Generalized linear model; Habitat distribution model; Ordinal regression; Vegetation modelling

Indexed keywords

ALPINE ENVIRONMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMMUNITY RESPONSE; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; LAND USE CHANGE; ORDINATION; PLANT COMMUNITY;

ALPS; AUSTRIA;

CONIFEROPHYTA; PINUS MUGO;

EID: 0037357479     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2699.2003.00839.x     Document Type: Article

References (103)

1. Aber, J., Neilson, R.P., McNulty, S., Lenihan, J.M., Bachelet, D. & Drapek, R.J. (2001) Forest processes and global environmental change: predicting the effects of individual and multiple stressors. Bioscience, 51, 735-751.
2. Adler, W., Oswald, K. & Fischer, R. (1994) Exkursionsflora von Österreich. Verlag Eugen Ulmer, Stuttgart, Wien.
3. Arft, A.M., Walker, M.D., Gurevitch, J., Alatalo, J.M., Bret-Harte, M.S., Dale, M., Diemer, M., Gugerli, F., Henry, G.H.R., Jones, M.H., Hollister, R., Jónsdóttir, I.S., Laine, K., Lévesque, E., Marion, G.M., Molau, U., Mølgaard, P., Nordenhäll, U., Rasvhizin, V., Robinson, C.H., Starr, G., Stenström, A., Stenström, M., Totland, Ø., Turner, L., Walker, L., Webber, P., Welker, J.M. & Wookey, P.A. (1999) Response patterns of tundra plant species to experimental warming: A meta-analysis of the international tundra experiment. Ecological Monographs, 69, 491-511.
4. 2 levels. Australian Journal of Botany, 40, 615-630.
5. Austin, M.P. & Smith, T.M. (1989) A new model for the continuum concept. Vegetatio, 83, 35-47.
6. Azola, C. & Harrell, F.E. (2001) An introduction to S-Plus and the Hmisc and Design libraries. University of Virginia School of Medicine. http://hesweb1.med.virginia.edu/biostat/s/splus.html. (Accessed May 2001).
7. Bachmann, A. (1998) Coupling NUATMOS with the GIS ARC/INFO. Final report for MINERVA 2. Department of Geography, University Zurich, CH.
8. Balk, B. & Elder, K. (2000) Combining binary decision tree and geostatistical methods to estimate snow distribution in a mountain watershed. Water Resources Research, 36, 13-26.
9. Beniston, M. (1994) Mountain environments in changing climates. Routledge Publishing Co., London, New York.
10. Beniston, M. (1997) Variations of snow depth and duration in the Swiss Alps over the last 50 years: links to changes in large-scale climatic forces. Climatic Change, 36, 281-300.
11. Beniston, M., Fox, D.G., Adhikary, S., Andresson, R., Guisan, A., Holten, J.I., Innes, J., Maitima, J., Price, M. & Tessier, L. (1996) The impacts of climate change on mountain regions. Second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), Chapter 5, Cambridge University Press, UK.
12. Beniston, M., Diaz, H.F. & Bradley, R.S. (1997) Climate change at high elevation sites: an overview. Climatic Change, 36, 233-251.
13. Böhmer, H.J. (1999) Vegetationsdynamik im Hochgebirge unter dem Einfluß natürlicher Störungen. Dissertationes Botanicae, 311, 1-180.
14. Bolliger, J., Kienast, F. & Bugmann, H. (2000) Comparing models for tree distributions: concept, structures and behaviour. Ecological Modelling, 134, 89-102.
15. Box, E.O., Crumpacker, D.W. & Hardin, E.D. (1993) A climate-based model of plant species locations in Florida, USA. Journal of Biogeography, 20, 629-644.
16. Box, E.,O., Crumpacker, D.W. & Hardin, E.D. (1999) Predicted effects of climatic change on distribution of ecologically important native tree and shrub species in Florida. Climatic Change, 41, 213-248.
17. Braun-Blanquet, J. (1964) Pflanzensoziologie, Grundzüge der Vegetationskunde. 3rd edn. Springer Verlag, Vienna.
18. Breiman, L. (1993) Classification and regression trees. Chapman & Hall, New York.
19. Bryant, D.M., Holland, E.A., Seastedt, T.R. & Walker, M.D. (1997) Analysis of litter decomposition in an alpine tundra. Canadian Journal of Botany, 76, 1295-1304.
20. Brzeziecki, B., Kienast, F. & Wildi, O. (1995) Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland. Journal of Vegetation Science, 6, 257-268.
21. Carcaillet, C. & Brun, J.-J. (2000) Changes in landscape structure in the northwestern Alps over the last 7000 years: lessons from soil charcoal. Journal of Vegetation Science, 11, 705-714.
22. Carrer, M. & Carlo, U. (2001) Spatial analysis of structural and tree-ring related parameters in a timberline forest in the Italian Alps. Journal of Vegetation Science, 12, 643-652.
23. Chambers, J.C. (1995) Disturbance, life history strategies, and seed fates in alpine herbfield communities. American Journal of Botany, 82, 421-433.
24. Cullen, L., Stewart, G.H., Duncan, R.P. & Palmer, G. (2001) Disturbance and climate warming influences on New Zealand Nothofagus tree-line population dynamics. Journal of Ecology, 89, 1061-1071.
25. Didier, L. (2001) Invasion patterns of European larch and Swiss stone pine in subalpine pastures in the French Alps. Forest Ecology and Management, 145, 67-77.
26. Diemer, M. (2002) Population stasis in a high-elevation herbaceous plant under moderate climate warming. Basic and Applied Ecology, 3, 77-83.
27. Dirnböck, T. & Grabherr, G. (2000) GIS assessment of vegetation and hydrological change in a high mountain catchment of the Northern Limestone Alps. Mountain Research and Development, 20, 172-179.
28. Dirnböck, T. & Greimler, J. (1997) Subalpin-alpine Vegetationskartierung der Raxalpe, nordöstliche Kalkalpen, Vegetationskarte 1: 12500. Linzer biologische Beiträge, 29, 299-339 and 623-640.
29. Dirnböck, T., Greimler, J. & Grabherr, G. (1998) Die Vegetation des Zeller-Staritzen-Plateaus (Hochschwab, Steiermark) und ihre Bedeutung für den Quellschutz. Mitteilungen des Naturwissenschaftlichen Vereins der Steiermark, 128, 123-183.
30. Dirnböck, T., Dullinger S., Gottfried, M. & Grabherr, G. (1999) Die Vegetation des Hochschwab (Steiermark), alpine und subalpine Stufe. Mitteilungen des Naturwissenschaftlichen Vereins der Steiermark, 129, 111-251.
31. Dirnböck, T., Dullinger, S. & Grabherr, G. (2001) A new grassland community in the Eastern Alps (Austria): evidence of environmental distribution limits of endemic plant communities. Phytocoenologia, 31, 521-536.
32. Dirnböck, T., Hobbs, R.J., Lambeck, R.J. & Caccetta, P.A. (2002) Vegetation distribution in relation to topographically driven processes in south-western Australia. Applied Vegetation Science, 5, 147-158.
33. Duckworth, J.C., Bunce, R.G.H. & Malloch, A.J.C. (2000) Modelling the potential effects of climate change on calcareous grasslands in Atlantic Europe. Journal of Biogeography, 27, 347-358.
34. Dullinger, S., Dirnböck, T. & Grabherr, G. (2001) Die subalpine und alpine Vegetation der Schneealpe, Steiermark. Mitteilungen des Naturwissenschaftlichen Vereins der Steiermark, 131, 83-127.
35. Dullinger, S., Dirnböck, T., Greimler, S. & Grabherr, G. (2003) A resampling approach to evaluate effects of summer farming on subalpine plant species diversity. Journal of Vegetation Science, (in press).
36. Efron, B. (1983) Estimating the error rate of a prediction rule: improvement on cross-validation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, 316-331.
37. Erschbamer, B., Kneringer, E. & Niederfringer-Schlag, R. (2001) Seed rain, soil seed bank, seedling recruitment, and survival of seedlings on a glacier foreland in the Central Alps. Flora, 196, 304-312.
38. Friedel, H. (1961) Schneedeckendauer und Vegetationsverteilung im Gelände. Mitteilungen Forstliche Bundesversuchsanstalt Mariabrunn, 59, 317-370.
39. Gallant, J.C. & Wilson, J.P. (1996) Tapes-G: a grid-based terrain analysis program for the environmental science. Computers and Geoscience, 22, 713-722.
40. Gavin, D.G. & Brubaker, L.B. (1999) A 6000-year soil pollen record of subalpine meadow vegetation in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA. Journal of Ecology, 87, 106-122.
41. Geiger, R. (1965) The climate near the ground. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
42. Gessler, P.E., Moore, I.D. & McKenzie, N.J. (1995) Soil-landscape modelling and spatial prediction of soil attributes. International Journal of GIS, 9, 421-432.
43. Gindl, W. (1999) Climatic significance of light rings in timberline spruce, Picea abies, Austrian Alps. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 31, 242-246.
44. Gottfried, M., Pauli, H. & Grabherr, G. (1998) Prediction of vegetation patterns at the limits of plant life: a new view of the alpine-nival ecotone. Arctic and Alpine Research, 30, 207-221.
45. Gottfried, M., Pauli, H., Reiter, K. & Grabherr, G. (1999) A fine-scaled predictive model for changes in species distribution patterns of high mountain plants induced by climate warming. Diversity and Distributions, 5, 241-251.
46. Grabherr, G., Gottfried, M. & Pauli, H. (1994) Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature, 369, p. 448.
47. Grabherr, G., Gottfried, M., Gruber, A. & Pauli, H. (1995) Patterns and current changes in alpine plant diversity. Arctic and alpine biodiversity (eds F.S. Chapin and C. Körner), Vol. 113, pp. 167-181. Ecological Studies, Springer, New York.
48. Greimler, J. & Dirnböck, T. (1996) Die subalpine und alpine Vegetation des Schneebergs,Niederösterreich. Vegetationskarte im Maßstab 1: 10000 und Beschreibung der Vegetation. Linzer biologische Beiträge, 28, 437-482.
49. Grytnes, J.A. (2000) Fine-scale vascular plant species richness in different alpine vegetation types: relationships with biomass and cover. Journal of Vegetation Science, 11, 87-92.
50. Guisan, A. & Harrell, F.E. (2000) Ordinal response regression models in ecology. Journal of Vegetation Science, 11, 617-626.
51. Guisan, A. & Theurillat, J.-P. (2000) Equilibrium modeling of alpine plant distribution: how far can we go?. Phytocoenologia, 30, 353-384.
52. Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
53. Guisan, A., Theurillat, J.-P. & Kienast, F. (1998) Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an alpine environment. Journal of Vegetation Science, 9, 65-74.
54. Hansen, A.J., Neilson, R.P., Dale, V.H., Flather, C.H., Iverson, L.R., Currie, D.J., Shafer, S., Cook, R. & Bartlein, P.J. (2001) Global change in forests: response of species, communities, and biomes. Bioscience, 51, 765-779.
55. Harrell, F.E. (2001) Regression modeling strategies with application to linear models, logistic regression, and survival analysis. Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, New York.
56. Hartman, M.D., Baron, J.S., Lammers, R.B., Cline, D.W., Band, L.E., Liston, G.E. & Tague, C. (1999) Simulation of snow distribution and hydrology in a mountain basin. Water Resources Research, 35, 1587-1603.
57. Hobbs, R.J. (2000) Land-use changes and invasions. Invasive species in a changing world (eds H.A. Mooney and R.J. Hobbs, pp. 55-64. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA.
58. Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J. & Ephraums, J.J. (1990) Climate change - the IPCC climatic assessment, 365 pp. Report prepared for IPCC by Working Group 1. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
59. Huntley, B. (1990) European post-glacial forests: compositional changes in response to climatic change. Journal of Vegetation Science, 1, 507-518.
60. Huntley, B., Berry, P.M., Cramer, W. & McDonald, A.P. (1995) Modelling present and potential future ranges of some European higher plants using climate response surfaces. Journal of Biogeography, 22, 967-1001.
61. Jansa, J., Kraus, K., Blöschl, G., Kirnbauer, R. & Kuschnig, G. (2000) Modelling snow melt processes in alpine areas. International Archives of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 33, pp. 6.
62. Keller, F., Kienast, F. & Beniston, M. (2000) Evidence of response of vegetation to environmental change on high-elevation sites in the Swiss Alps. Regional Environmental Change, 1, 70-77.
63. Körner, C. (1999) Alpine plant life: functional plant ecology of high mountain ecosystems. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York.
64. Kral, F. (1970) Pollenanalytische Untersuchungen zur Waldgeschichte des Dachsteinmassivs. University for Agriculture and Forestry, Vienna, Austria.
65. Kullman, L. (2002) Rapid recent range-margin rise of tree and shrub species in the Swedish Scandes. Journal of Ecology, 90, 68-77.
66. Lavoie, C. & Payette, S. (1994) Recent fluctuations of the lichen-spruce forest limit in subarctic Quebec. Journal of Ecology, 82, 725-734.
67. Levin, S.A. (1992) The problem of pattern and scale in ecology. Ecology, 73, 1943-1967.
68. Lexer, M.J., Hönninger, K., Scheifinger, H., Matulla, Ch., Groll, N., Kromp-Kolb, H., Schadauer, K., Starlinger, F. & Englisch, M. (2001) The sensitivity of the Austrian forests to scenarios of climatic change. Monographien, Umweltbundesamt Wien, 132, 1-132.
69. Lexer, M.J., Hönninger, K., Scheifinger, H., Matulla, Ch., Groll, N., Kromp-Kolb, H., Schadauer, K., Starlinger, F. & Englisch, M. (2002) The sensitivity of Austrian forest to scenarios of climatic change: a large-scale risk assessment based on a modified gap model and forest inventory data. Forest Ecology and Management, 162, 53-72.
70. Liston, G.E. & Sturm, M. (1998) A snow-transport model for complex terrain. Journal of Glaciology, 44, 498-516.
71. Loáiciga, H.A., Maidment, D.R. & Valdes, J.B. (2000) Climate-change impacts in a regional karst aquifer, Texas, USA. Journal of Hydrology, 227, 173-194.
72. McCarty, J.P. (2001) Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conservation Biology, 15, 320-331.
73. McCullagh, P. & Nelder, J.A. (1991) Generalized linear models. 2nd edn. Chapman & Hall, London, UK.
74. McKenzie, N.J. & Ryan, P.J. (1999) Spatial prediction of soil properties using environmental correlation. Geoderma, 89, 67-94.
75. Meshinev, T., Apostolova, I. & Koleva, E.S. (2000) Influence of warming on timberline rising: a case study on Pinus peuce Griseb. in Bulgaria. Phytocoenologia, 30, 431-438.
76. Moir, W.H., Rochelle, S.G. & Schoettle, A.W. (1999) Microscale patterns of tree establishment near upper treeline, Snowy Range, Wyoming, USA. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 31, 379-388.
77. Molau, U. (1997) Responses to natural climatic variation and experimental warming in two tundra plant species with contrasting life forms: Cassiope tetragona and Ranunculus nivalis. Global Change Biology, 3, 97-107.
78. Moore, I.D., Gessler, P.E., Nielsen, G.A. & Peterson, G.A. (1993) Soil attribute prediction using terrain analysis. Soil Science Society of American Journal, 57, 443-452.
79. Motta, R. & Nola, P. (2001) Growth trends and dynamics in sub-alpine forest stands in the Varaita Valley (Piedmont, Italy) and their relationships with human activities and global change. Journal of Vegetation Science, 12, 219-230.
80. Nagelkerke, N.J.D. (1991) A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination of determination. Biometrika, 78, 691-692.
81. Pauli, H., Gottfried, M. & Grabherr, G. (1996) Effects of climate change on mountain ecosystems- upward shifting of alpine plants. World Resource Review, 8, 382-390.
82. Pauli, H., Gottfried, M. & Grabherr, G. (2001) High summits of the Alps in a changing climate. 'Fingerprints' of climate change, adapted behaviour and shifting species ranges (eds Walther, A. Burga and P.J. Edwards), pp. 139-149. Kluwer, New York.
83. Paulsen, J., Weber, U.M. & Körner, C. (2000) Tree growth near treeline: abrupt or gradual reduction with altitude. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 32, 14-20.
84. Pitelka, L.F. & Plant Migration Workshop Group (1997) Plant migration and climate change. American Scientist, 85, 464-473.
85. Rich, P.M., Hetrick, W.A. & Saving, S.C. (1995) Modeling topographic influence on Solar Radiation: a manual for the SOLARFLUX Model. Departmentment of Systematics & Ecology, Los Alamos, New Mexico.
86. Richardson, D.M., Bond, W.J., Dean, W.R.J., Higgins, S.I., Midgley, G.F., Milton, S.J., Powrie, L.W., Rutherford, M.C., Samways, M.J. & Schulze, R.E. (2000) Invasive alien species and global change: a South African perspective. Invasive species in a changing world (eds H.A. Mooney and R.J. Hobbs), pp. 303-350. Island Press, Washington, DC.
87. Roecker, E. Oberhuber, J.M., Bacher, A., Christopch, M. & Kirchner, I. (1996) ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Climate Dynamics, 12, 737-754.
88. Ross, D.G., Smith, I.N., Manins, P.C., & Fox, D.G., (1988) Diagnostic wind field modeling for complex terrain: model development and testing. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 27, 785-796.
89. Sætersdal, M., Birks, H.J.B. & Peglar, S.M. (1998) Predicting changes in Fennoscandian vascular-plant species richness as a result of future climatic change. Journal of Biogeography, 25, 111-122.
90. Solar, F. (1963) Zur Kenntnis der Böden auf dem Raxplateau. Mitteilungen der österreichischen bodenkundlichen Gesellschaft, 8, 3-72.
91. Suzuki, S. & Kudo, G. (2000) Response of alpine shrubs to simulated environmental change during three years in the mid-latitude mountain, northern Japan. Ecography, 23, 553-564.
92. Tappeiner, U., Tasser, E. & Tappeiner, G. (1998) Modelling vegetation patterns using natural and anthropogenic influence factors: preliminary experience with a GIS based model applied to an alpine area. Ecological Modelling, 113, 225-237.
93. Tappeiner, U., Tappeiner, G., Aschenwald, J., Tasser, E. & Ostendorf, B. (2001) GIS-based modelling of spatial pattern of snow cover duration in an alpine area. Ecological Modelling, 138, 265-275.
94. Theurillat, J.-P. & Guisan, A. (2001) Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review. Climatic Change, 50, 77-109.
95. Tinner, W., Ammann, B. & Germann, P. (1996) Treeline fluctuations recorded for 12,500 years by soil profiles, pollen, and plant macrofossiles in the Central Swiss Alps. Arctic and Alpine Research, 28, 131-147.
96. Totland, Ø. (1999) Effects of temperature on performance and phentypic selection on plant traits in alpine Ranunculus acris. Oecologia, 120, 242-251.
97. Turc, L. (1961) Évaluation des besoins en eau d'irrigation, évapotranspiration potentielle. Annales Agronomiques, Paris, 12, 13-49.
98. Wakonigg, H. (1978) Witterung und Klima in der Steiermark. University of Technology, Graz, Austria.
99. Walker, M.D., Webber, P.J., Arnold, E.H. & Ebert-May, D. (1994) Effects of interannual climate variation on aboveground phytomass in alpine vegetation. Ecology, 75, 393-408.
100. th-century changes of temperature in the mountain regions of Central Europe. Climatic Change, 36, 327-344.
101. White, P.S., Wilds, S.P. & Stratton, D.A. (2001) The distribution of heath balds in the Great Smoky Mountains, North Carolina and Tennessee. Journal of Vegetation Science, 12, 453-466.
102. Wildi, O. & Schütz, M. (2000) Reconstruction of a long-term recovery process from pasture to forest. Community Ecology, 1, 25-32.
103. Zukrigl, K. (1973) Montane und subalpine Waldgesellschaften am Alpenostrand. Mitteilungen der Forstlichen Bundesversuchsanstalt Mariabrunn, 101, 1-387.