메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 22, Issue 3, 1996, Pages 203-210

Review of seasonal forecasting techniques and their applicability to Southern Africa

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 0029789048     PISSN: 03784738     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (52)

References (113)
  • 1
    • 0027843630 scopus 로고
    • Modelling interannual variability in the Indian Ocean using momentum fluxes from the operational weather analyses of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
    • ANDERSON DLT and CARRINGTON DJ (1993) Modelling interannual variability in the Indian Ocean using momentum fluxes from the operational weather analyses of the United Kingdom Meteorological Office and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. J. Geophys. Res. 98 12483-12499.
    • (1993) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.98 , pp. 12483-12499
    • Anderson, D.L.T.1    Carrington, D.J.2
  • 2
    • 0000123158 scopus 로고
    • Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis
    • BARNETT TP and PREISENDORFER RW (1987) Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Weather Rev. 115 1825-1850.
    • (1987) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 1825-1850
    • Barnett, T.P.1    Preisendorfer, R.W.2
  • 3
    • 0024813175 scopus 로고
    • The effect of Eurasian snow cover on regional and global climate variations
    • BARNETT TP, DUMENIL L, SCHELSE U and ROECKNER E (1989) The effect of Eurasian snow cover on regional and global climate variations. J. Atmos. Sci. 46 661-685.
    • (1989) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.46 , pp. 661-685
    • Barnett, T.P.1    Dumenil, L.2    Schelse, U.3    Roeckner, E.4
  • 4
    • 0027799092 scopus 로고
    • ENSO and ENSO-relaied predictability. Part 1: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model
    • BARNETT TP, LATIF MA, GRAHAM N, FLUGEL M, PAZAN S and WHITE W (1993) ENSO and ENSO-relaied predictability. Part 1: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Clim. 6 1545-1566.
    • (1993) J. Clim. , vol.6 , pp. 1545-1566
    • Barnett, T.P.1    Latif, M.A.2    Graham, N.3    Flugel, M.4    Pazan, S.5    White, W.6
  • 5
    • 0023480259 scopus 로고
    • Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns
    • BARNSTON AG and LIVEZEY RE (1987) Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Weather Rev. 115 1083-1126.
    • (1987) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 1083-1126
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Livezey, R.E.2
  • 6
    • 0042611129 scopus 로고
    • An operational analogue/antianalogue prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures. Part 2: Spring, summer, fall and intermediate 3-month experiments
    • BARNSTON AG and LIVEZEY RE (1989) An operational analogue/antianalogue prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures. Part 2: Spring, summer, fall and intermediate 3-month experiments. J. Clim. 2 513-541.
    • (1989) J. Clim. , vol.2 , pp. 513-541
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Livezey, R.E.2
  • 7
    • 84923025388 scopus 로고
    • Modulation of Southern Oscillation Northern Hemisphere mid-winter climate relationship by the QBO
    • BARNSTON AG, LIVEZEY RE and HALPERT MS (1991) Modulation of Southern Oscillation Northern Hemisphere mid-winter climate relationship by the QBO. J. Clim. 4 203-217.
    • (1991) J. Clim. , vol.4 , pp. 203-217
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Livezey, R.E.2    Halpert, M.S.3
  • 12
    • 0028250159 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations
    • BRANKOVIC C, PALMER TN and FERRANTI L (1994) Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Clim. 7 217-237.
    • (1994) J. Clim. , vol.7 , pp. 217-237
    • Brankovic, C.1    Palmer, T.N.2    Ferranti, L.3
  • 13
    • 0001303282 scopus 로고
    • On the economic value of seasonal-precipitation forecasts: The fallowing planting problem
    • BROWN BG, KATZ RW and MURPHY AH (1986) On the economic value of seasonal-precipitation forecasts: The fallowing planting problem. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 67 833-841.
    • (1986) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.67 , pp. 833-841
    • Brown, B.G.1    Katz, R.W.2    Murphy, A.H.3
  • 14
    • 0007362042 scopus 로고
    • The effect of tropical Atlantic heating anomalies upon GCM rain forecasts over the Americas
    • BUCHMANN J, PEAGLE J, BUJA LE and DICKINSON RE (1990) The effect of tropical Atlantic heating anomalies upon GCM rain forecasts over the Americas. J. Clim. 3 189-208.
    • (1990) J. Clim. , vol.3 , pp. 189-208
    • Buchmann, J.1    Peagle, J.2    Buja, L.E.3    Dickinson, R.E.4
  • 15
    • 0020969403 scopus 로고
    • Longperiod tidal forcing of Indian monsoon rainfall: An hypothesis
    • CAMPBELL WH, BLECHMAN JB and BRYSON RA (1983) Longperiod tidal forcing of Indian monsoon rainfall: An hypothesis. J. Amos. Sci. 22 287-296.
    • (1983) J. Amos. Sci. , vol.22 , pp. 287-296
    • Campbell, W.H.1    Blechman, J.B.2    Bryson, R.A.3
  • 16
    • 0022210003 scopus 로고
    • A theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation
    • CANE MA and ZEBIAK SE (1985) A theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Sci. 228 1085-1087.
    • (1985) Sci. , vol.228 , pp. 1085-1087
    • Cane, Ma.1    Zebiak, S.E.2
  • 17
    • 0022843406 scopus 로고
    • Experimental forecasts of El Niño
    • CANE MA, ZEBIAK SE and DOLAN SC (1986) Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature 321 827-832.
    • (1986) Nature , vol.321 , pp. 827-832
    • Cane, M.A.1    Zebiak, S.E.2    Dolan, S.C.3
  • 18
    • 0028577084 scopus 로고
    • Prediction of the interannual variations of tropical cyclone movement over regions of the western North Pacific
    • CHAN JCL (1994) Prediction of the interannual variations of tropical cyclone movement over regions of the western North Pacific. Int. J. Climatol. 14 527-538.
    • (1994) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.14 , pp. 527-538
    • Chan, J.C.L.1
  • 19
    • 0022192120 scopus 로고
    • Seasonal precipitation forecasting with 6-7 month lead-time in the Pacific North West using an Information Theoretic Model
    • CHRISTENSEN RA and EILBERT RF (1985) Seasonal precipitation forecasting with 6-7 month lead-time in the Pacific North West using an Information Theoretic Model. Mon. Weather Rev. 113 502-518.
    • (1985) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.113 , pp. 502-518
    • Christensen, R.A.1    Eilbert, R.F.2
  • 20
    • 0028582477 scopus 로고
    • Long-range prediction of Hawaiian winter rainfall using canonical correlation analysis
    • CHUPand HE Y (1994) Long-range prediction of Hawaiian winter rainfall using canonical correlation analysis. Int. J. Climatol. 14 659-669.
    • (1994) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.14 , pp. 659-669
    • Chu, P.1    He, Y.2
  • 21
    • 0021086911 scopus 로고
    • Foreshadowing northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu, India
    • DHAR ON and RAKHECHA PR (1983) Foreshadowing northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu, India. Mon. Weather Rev. 111 109-112.
    • (1983) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.111 , pp. 109-112
    • Dhar, O.N.1    Rakhecha, P.R.2
  • 22
    • 10144254018 scopus 로고
    • Sea-surface temperature - Sahel drought teleconnections in GCM simulations
    • Gregory S (ed.) Belhaven Press, London.
    • DRUYAN LM (1988) Sea-surface temperature - Sahel drought teleconnections in GCM simulations. In: Gregory S (ed.) Recent Climate Change. Belhaven Press, London. 154-165.
    • (1988) Recent Climate Change , pp. 154-165
    • Druyan, L.M.1
  • 23
    • 10144244246 scopus 로고
    • Rainfall data bases and seasonal forecasting in eastern Africa. Gregory S (ed.)
    • Belhaven Press, London
    • FARMER G (1988a) Rainfall data bases and seasonal forecasting in eastern Africa. In: Gregory S (ed.) Recent Climate Change. Belhaven Press, London, 193-201.
    • (1988) Recent Climate Change , pp. 193-201
    • Farmer, G.1
  • 24
    • 0024195150 scopus 로고
    • Seasonal forecasting of the Kenya short rains, 1901-1984
    • FARMER G (1988b) Seasonal forecasting of the Kenya short rains, 1901-1984. J. Climatol 8 489-497.
    • (1988) J. Climatol. , vol.8 , pp. 489-497
    • Farmer, G.1
  • 26
    • 0028254953 scopus 로고
    • Diagnosis of extratropical variability in seasonal integrations of the ECMWF model
    • FERRANTI L, MOLENTI F, BRANKOVIC C and PALMER TN (1994) Diagnosis of extratropical variability in seasonal integrations of the ECMWF model. J. Clim. 7 849-868.
    • (1994) J. Clim. , vol.7 , pp. 849-868
    • Ferranti, L.1    Molenti, F.2    Brankovic, C.3    Palmer, T.N.4
  • 27
    • 0022839918 scopus 로고
    • Sachel rainfall and worldwide sea surface temperatures, 1901-85
    • FOLLAND CK, PALMER TN and PARKER DE (1986) Sachel rainfall and worldwide sea surface temperatures, 1901-85. Nature 320 602-607.
    • (1986) Nature , vol.320 , pp. 602-607
    • Folland, C.K.1    Palmer, T.N.2    Parker, D.E.3
  • 28
    • 84979367514 scopus 로고
    • Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods
    • FOLLAND CK, OWEN J, WARD MN and COLMAN A (1991) Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region using empirical and dynamical methods. J. Forecasting 10 21-56.
    • (1991) J. Forecasting , vol.10 , pp. 21-56
    • Folland, C.K.1    Owen, J.2    Ward, M.N.3    Colman, A.4
  • 29
    • 0019165888 scopus 로고
    • Some simple solutions for heat induced tropical circulation
    • GILL AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat induced tropical circulation. Q. J. Royal Meteorol Soc. 106 447-462.
    • (1980) Q. J. Royal Meteorol Soc. , vol.106 , pp. 447-462
    • Gill, A.E.1
  • 30
    • 0000087531 scopus 로고
    • Long-range forecasting: The present and the future
    • GILMAN DL (1985) Long-range forecasting: The present and the future. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 66 159-164.
    • (1985) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.66 , pp. 159-164
    • Gilman, D.L.1
  • 31
    • 0027072715 scopus 로고
    • Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance
    • GRAY WM, LANDSEA CW, MEILKE PW and BERRY KJ (1992) Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. Weather Forecasting 7 440-455.
    • (1992) Weather Forecasting , vol.7 , pp. 440-455
    • Gray, W.M.1    Landsea, C.W.2    Meilke, P.W.3    Berry, K.J.4
  • 34
    • 0020330787 scopus 로고
    • Seasonal climate forecasts and water management for steam electric generation
    • GREIS NP (1982) Seasonal climate forecasts and water management for steam electric generation. J. AppL Meteorol. 21 1798-1814.
    • (1982) J. AppL Meteorol. , vol.21 , pp. 1798-1814
    • Greis, N.P.1
  • 35
    • 0001351087 scopus 로고
    • Surface temperature patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation
    • HALPERT MS and ROPELEWSKI CF (1992) Surface temperature patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation. J. Clim. 5 577-593.
    • (1992) J. Clim. , vol.5 , pp. 577-593
    • Halpert, M.S.1    Ropelewski, C.F.2
  • 36
    • 0023756298 scopus 로고
    • A detailed examination of the extratropical response to tropical El Niño/Southern Oscillation events
    • HAMILTON K (1988) A detailed examination of the extratropical response to tropical El Niño/Southern Oscillation events. J. Climatol. 8 67-86.
    • (1988) J. Climatol. , vol.8 , pp. 67-86
    • Hamilton, K.1
  • 39
    • 0021535168 scopus 로고
    • Interannual variability and annual cycle: Mechanisms of circulation and climate in the tropical Atlantic sector
    • HASTENRATH S (1984) Interannual variability and annual cycle: Mechanisms of circulation and climate in the tropical Atlantic sector. Mon. Weather Rev. 112 133-141.
    • (1984) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.112 , pp. 133-141
    • Hastenrath, S.1
  • 40
    • 0343893042 scopus 로고
    • Prediction of Indian Monsoon rainfall: Further exploration
    • HASTENRATH S (1988) Prediction of Indian Monsoon rainfall: Further exploration. J. Clim. 1 298-304.
    • (1988) J. Clim. , vol.1 , pp. 298-304
    • Hastenrath, S.1
  • 41
    • 0000183373 scopus 로고
    • Prediction of Northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies
    • HASTENRATH S (1990a) Prediction of Northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies. J. Clim. 3 893-904.
    • (1990) J. Clim. , vol.3 , pp. 893-904
    • Hastenrath, S.1
  • 42
    • 0025589455 scopus 로고
    • Tropical climate prediction: A progress report
    • HASTENRATH S (1990b) Tropical climate prediction: A progress report. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 71 819-825.
    • (1990) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.71 , pp. 819-825
    • Hastenrath, S.1
  • 44
    • 0027444136 scopus 로고
    • Further work on the prediction of northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies
    • HASTENRATH S and GREISCHAR L (1993) Further work on the prediction of northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies. J. Clim. 6 743-758.
    • (1993) J. Clim. , vol.6 , pp. 743-758
    • Hastenrath, S.1    Greischar, L.2
  • 47
    • 0028600863 scopus 로고
    • Experimental predictions of climate variability for lead-times of twelve months
    • HUNT BG, ZEBIAK SE and CANE MA (1994) Experimental predictions of climate variability for lead-times of twelve months. Int. J. Climatol. 14 507-526.
    • (1994) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.14 , pp. 507-526
    • Hunt, B.G.1    Zebiak, S.E.2    Cane, M.A.3
  • 48
    • 26844533176 scopus 로고
    • A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean
    • JURY MR (1993) A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean, Meteorol. Atmos. Physics 51 101-115.
    • (1993) Meteorol. Atmos. Physics , vol.51 , pp. 101-115
    • Jury, M.R.1
  • 49
    • 0029753671 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional teleconnection patterns associated with summer rainfall over South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe
    • JURY MR (1996) Regional teleconnection patterns associated with summer rainfall over South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe. Int. J. Climatol. 16 135-153.
    • (1996) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.16 , pp. 135-153
    • Jury, M.R.1
  • 50
    • 0002478318 scopus 로고
    • A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical south west Indian Ocean
    • JURY MR and PATHACK B (1991) A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical south west Indian Ocean. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 47 37-48.
    • (1991) Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. , vol.47 , pp. 37-48
    • Jury, M.R.1    Pathack, B.2
  • 52
    • 0019141961 scopus 로고
    • Regression forecasting of the onset of the Indian summer monsoon with antecedent upper air conditions
    • KUNG EC and SHARIF TA (1980) Regression forecasting of the onset of the Indian summer monsoon with antecedent upper air conditions. J. Appl. Meteorol. 19 370-380.
    • (1980) J. Appl. Meteorol. , vol.19 , pp. 370-380
    • Kung, E.C.1    Sharif, T.A.2
  • 55
    • 0021566735 scopus 로고
    • Climatological contingency analysis and seasonal forecast skill in the United States
    • LAWSON MP, DEWEY KF and HEIM R Jr (1984) Climatological contingency analysis and seasonal forecast skill in the United States. J. Climatol. 4 205-215.
    • (1984) J. Climatol. , vol.4 , pp. 205-215
    • Lawson, M.P.1    Dewey, K.F.2    Heim Jr., R.3
  • 56
    • 0022266341 scopus 로고
    • Persistent anomalies, blocking and variations in atmospheric predictability
    • LEGRAS B and GHIL M (1985) Persistent anomalies, blocking and variations in atmospheric predictability. J. Atmos, Sci. 42 433-471.
    • (1985) J. Atmos, Sci. , vol.42 , pp. 433-471
    • Legras, B.1    Ghil, M.2
  • 58
    • 0025528155 scopus 로고
    • Variability of skill of long-range forecasts and implications for their use and value
    • LIVEZEY RE (1990a) Variability of skill of long-range forecasts and implications for their use and value. Bull Am. Meteoral. Soc. 71 300-309.
    • (1990) Bull Am. Meteoral. Soc. , vol.71 , pp. 300-309
    • Livezey, R.E.1
  • 60
    • 0024234107 scopus 로고
    • An operational multifield analogue/anti-analogue prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures. Part 1 : System design and winter experiments
    • LIVEZEY RE and BARNSTON AG (1988) An operational multifield analogue/anti-analogue prediction system for United States seasonal temperatures. Part 1 : System design and winter experiments. J. Geophys. Res. 93 10953-10974.
    • (1988) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.93 , pp. 10953-10974
    • Livezey, R.E.1    Barnston, A.G.2
  • 61
    • 0023584636 scopus 로고
    • Tropical-extratropical teleconnections during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Part II: Relationships between monthly mean Northern Hemisphere circulation patterns and proxies for tropical convection
    • LIVEZEY RE and MO KC (1987) Tropical-extratropical teleconnections during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Part II: Relationships between monthly mean Northern Hemisphere circulation patterns and proxies for tropical convection. Mon. Weather Rev. 115 3115-3132.
    • (1987) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 3115-3132
    • Livezey, R.E.1    Mo, K.C.2
  • 62
    • 0025657973 scopus 로고
    • Mixed analogue/persistence prediction of seasonal mean temperatures for the USA
    • LIVEZEY RE, BARNSTON AG and NEUMEISTER BK (1990) Mixed analogue/persistence prediction of seasonal mean temperatures for the USA. Int. J. Climatol 10 329-340.
    • (1990) Int. J. Climatol , vol.10 , pp. 329-340
    • Livezey, R.E.1    Barnston, A.G.2    Neumeister, B.K.3
  • 63
    • 0028193576 scopus 로고
    • Comparative skill of two analogue seasonal temperature prediction systems: Objective prediction selectors
    • LIVEZEY RE, BARNSTON AG, GRUZA GV and RAN'KOVA EYa (1994) Comparative skill of two analogue seasonal temperature prediction systems: Objective prediction selectors. J. Clim. 7 608-615.
    • (1994) J. Clim. , vol.7 , pp. 608-615
    • Livezey, R.E.1    Barnston, A.G.2    Gruza, G.V.3    Ran'kova, E.Ya.4
  • 64
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • LORENZ EN (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 65
    • 0021585272 scopus 로고
    • Irregularity; A fundamental property of the atmosphere
    • LORENZ EN (1984) Irregularity; a fundamental property of the atmosphere. Tellus 36A 98-110.
    • (1984) Tellus , vol.36 A , pp. 98-110
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 66
    • 0025224683 scopus 로고
    • Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability?
    • LORENZ EN (1990) Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability? Tellus 42A 378-389.
    • (1990) Tellus , vol.42 A , pp. 378-389
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 67
    • 0003260257 scopus 로고
    • Estimates of autocorrelations and spectra of seasonal mean temperatures over North America
    • MADDEN RA (1977) Estimates of autocorrelations and spectra of seasonal mean temperatures over North America. Mon. Weather Rev. 1059-18.
    • (1977) Mon. Weather Rev. , pp. 1059-1118
    • Madden, R.A.1
  • 68
    • 0019704464 scopus 로고
    • A quantitative approach to long-range prediction
    • MADDEN RA (1981) A quantitative approach to long-range prediction. J. Geophys. Res. 86 9817-9825.
    • (1981) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.86 , pp. 9817-9825
    • Madden, R.A.1
  • 69
    • 0028789580 scopus 로고
    • Sea-surface temperature - South African rainfall associations, 1910-1989
    • MASON SJ (1995) Sea-surface temperature - South African rainfall associations, 1910-1989. Int. J. Climatol 15 119-135.
    • (1995) Int. J. Climatol , vol.15 , pp. 119-135
    • Mason, S.J.1
  • 70
    • 10144236141 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulated changes in extreme rainfall over southern Africa
    • Accepted for publication
    • MASON SJ and JOUBERT AM (1996) Simulated changes in extreme rainfall over southern Africa. Int. J. Climatol Accepted for publication.
    • (1996) Int. J. Climatol
    • Mason, S.J.1    Joubert, A.M.2
  • 71
    • 0001847107 scopus 로고
    • Simulating drought in Southern Africa using sea surface temperature variations
    • MASON SJ, LINDESAY JA and TYSON PD (1994) Simulating drought in Southern Africa using sea surface temperature variations. Water SA 20 15-22.
    • (1994) Water SA , vol.20 , pp. 15-22
    • Mason, S.J.1    Lindesay, J.A.2    Tyson, P.D.3
  • 72
    • 0027707238 scopus 로고
    • Characteristics of climate forecast quality: Implications for economic value to Midwestern corn producers
    • MJELDE JW, DERREL SP, SONKA ST and LAMB PJ (1993) Characteristics of climate forecast quality: Implications for economic value to Midwestern corn producers. J. Clim. 6 2175-2187.
    • (1993) J. Clim. , vol.6 , pp. 2175-2187
    • Mjelde, J.W.1    Derrel, S.P.2    Sonka, S.T.3    Lamb, P.J.4
  • 73
    • 0019748175 scopus 로고
    • On the dynamics of droughts in Northeast Brazil: Observations, theory and numerical experiments with a general circulation model
    • MOURA AD and SHUKLA J (1981) On the dynamics of droughts in Northeast Brazil: Observations, theory and numerical experiments with a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci. 38 2653-2675.
    • (1981) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.38 , pp. 2653-2675
    • Moura, A.D.1    Shukla, J.2
  • 74
    • 0027430506 scopus 로고
    • Ensemble prediction using dynamically-conditioned perturbations
    • MUREAU R, MOLTENI F and PALMER TN (1993) Ensemble prediction using dynamically-conditioned perturbations. Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc. 119 299-323.
    • (1993) Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc. , vol.119 , pp. 299-323
    • Mureau, R.1    Molteni, F.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 75
    • 0022236007 scopus 로고
    • Remarks on the potential for long-range forecasting
    • NAMIAS J (1985) Remarks on the potential for long-range forecasting. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 66 165-173.
    • (1985) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.66 , pp. 165-173
    • Namias, J.1
  • 76
    • 0001190026 scopus 로고
    • Air-sea interaction and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
    • NICHOLLS N (1979) Air-sea interaction and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 106 1505-1508.
    • (1979) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.106 , pp. 1505-1508
    • Nicholls, N.1
  • 77
    • 0022264208 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of interannual variations of Australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity
    • NICHOLLS N (1985) Predictability of interannual variations of Australian seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Mon. Weather Rev. 113 1144-1145.
    • (1985) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.113 , pp. 1144-1145
    • Nicholls, N.1
  • 78
    • 0020454125 scopus 로고
    • On predicting the onset of the Australian wet season at Darwin
    • NICHOLLS N, McBRIDE JL and ORMERODRJ (1982) On predicting the onset of the Australian wet season at Darwin. Mon. Weather Rev. 110 14-17.
    • (1982) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.110 , pp. 14-17
    • Nicholls, N.1    McBride, J.L.2    Ormerod, R.J.3
  • 80
    • 0023709150 scopus 로고
    • Relationships between seasonal rainfall in East Africa and the Southern Oscillation
    • OGALLO LJ (1988) Relationships between seasonal rainfall in East Africa and the Southern Oscillation. J. Climatol. 8 31-43.
    • (1988) J. Climatol. , vol.8 , pp. 31-43
    • Ogallo, L.J.1
  • 81
    • 0342660110 scopus 로고
    • Modelling the influence of seasurface temperatures on tropical rainfall
    • Gregory S (ed.) Belhaven Press, London.
    • OWEN JA and FOLLAND CK (1988) Modelling the influence of seasurface temperatures on tropical rainfall. In: Gregory S (ed.) Recent Climate Change, Belhaven Press, London. 141-153.
    • (1988) Recent Climate Change , pp. 141-153
    • Owen, J.A.1    Folland, C.K.2
  • 82
    • 0024581325 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting Sahel rainfall
    • OWEN JA and WARD MN (1989) Forecasting Sahel rainfall. Weather 44 57-64.
    • (1989) Weather , vol.44 , pp. 57-64
    • Owen, J.A.1    Ward, M.N.2
  • 83
    • 0022835568 scopus 로고
    • Influence of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans on Sahel rainfall
    • PALMER TN (1986) Influence of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans on Sahel rainfall. Nature 332 251-253.
    • (1986) Nature , vol.332 , pp. 251-253
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 84
    • 0343028408 scopus 로고
    • Scientific Assessment of Prospects for Seasonal Forecasting: An European Perspective
    • Clarendon Library, Oxford University
    • PALMER TN and ANDERSON LT (1993) Scientific Assessment of Prospects for Seasonal Forecasting: An European Perspective. Research Department Technical Report No. 7, Clarendon Library, Oxford University.
    • (1993) Research Department Technical Report No. 7 , vol.7
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Anderson, L.T.2
  • 87
    • 37949037412 scopus 로고
    • Sea-surface temperature anomaly patterns and prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa
    • Gregory S (ed.) Belhaven Press, London
    • PARKER DE, FOLLAND CK and WARD MN (1988) Sea-surface temperature anomaly patterns and prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa. In: Gregory S (ed.) Recent Climate Change, Belhaven Press, London. 166-178.
    • (1988) Recent Climate Change , pp. 166-178
    • Parker, D.E.1    Folland, C.K.2    Ward, M.N.3
  • 88
    • 0021539360 scopus 로고
    • Climate forecast verifications, United States Mainland, 1974-83
    • PREISENDORFER RW and MOBLEY CD (1984) Climate forecast verifications, United States Mainland, 1974-83. Mon. Weather Rev. 112 809-825.
    • (1984) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.112 , pp. 809-825
    • Preisendorfer, R.W.1    Mobley, C.D.2
  • 89
    • 0024233605 scopus 로고
    • The principal discriminant method of prediction: Theory and evaluation
    • PREISENDORFER RW, MOBLEY CD and BARNETT TP (1988) The principal discriminant method of prediction: Theory and evaluation. J. Geophys. Res. 93 10815-10830.
    • (1988) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.93 , pp. 10815-10830
    • Preisendorfer, R.W.1    Mobley, C.D.2    Barnett, T.P.3
  • 90
    • 0023523967 scopus 로고
    • Weather regimes:Tnechallenge in extended-range forecasting
    • REINHOLD BB (1987) Weather regimes:Tnechallenge in extended-range forecasting. Sci. 235 437-41.
    • (1987) Sci. , vol.235 , pp. 437-441
    • Reinhold, B.B.1
  • 91
    • 0022266321 scopus 로고
    • Temporal variations in predictability
    • ROADS JO (1985) Temporal variations in predictability. J. Atmos. Sci. 42 884-903.
    • (1985) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.42 , pp. 884-903
    • Roads, J.O.1
  • 92
    • 0000335197 scopus 로고
    • Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
    • ROPELEWSKI CF and HALPERT MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 115 1606-1626.
    • (1987) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 1606-1626
    • Ropelewski, C.F.1    Halpert, M.S.2
  • 93
    • 0026494491 scopus 로고
    • The influence of global sea surface temperatures on the variability and predictability of seasonal Sahel temperature
    • ROWELL DP, FOLLAND CK, MASKELL K, OWEN JA and WARD, MN (1992) The influence of global sea surface temperatures on the variability and predictability of seasonal Sahel temperature. Geophys. Res. Letters 19 905-908.
    • (1992) Geophys. Res. Letters , vol.19 , pp. 905-908
    • Rowell, D.P.1    Folland, C.K.2    Maskell, K.3    Owen, J.A.4    Ward, M.N.5
  • 94
    • 0019753077 scopus 로고
    • Dynamical predictability of monthly means
    • SHUKLA J (1981) Dynamical predictability of monthly means. J. Atmos. Sci. 38 2547-2572.
    • (1981) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.38 , pp. 2547-2572
    • Shukla, J.1
  • 95
    • 0023486795 scopus 로고
    • Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India
    • SHUKLA J and MOOLEY DA (1987) Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Weather Rev. 115 695-703.
    • (1987) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 695-703
    • Shukla, J.1    Mooley, D.A.2
  • 96
    • 0020921357 scopus 로고
    • The Southern Oscillation and long-range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall over India
    • SHUKLA J and PAOLINA DA (1983) The Southern Oscillation and long-range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall over India. Man. Weather Rev. 111 1830-1837.
    • (1983) Man. Weather Rev. , vol.111 , pp. 1830-1837
    • Shukla, J.1    Paolina, D.A.2
  • 97
    • 0023397889 scopus 로고
    • The predictability of weather and climate
    • SOMER VILLE RCJ (1987) The predictability of weather and climate. Clim. Change 11 239-246.
    • (1987) Clim. Change , vol.11 , pp. 239-246
    • Somer Ville, R.C.J.1
  • 100
    • 0028571135 scopus 로고
    • Simulation of the northern summer monsoon in the ECMWF model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution
    • SPERBER KR, HAMEED S, POTTER GL and BOYLE JS (1994) Simulation of the northern summer monsoon in the ECMWF model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Mon. Weather Rev. 122 2461-2481.
    • (1994) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.122 , pp. 2461-2481
    • Sperber, K.R.1    Hameed, S.2    Potter, G.L.3    Boyle, J.S.4
  • 101
    • 0000013146 scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns
    • THOMPSON PD (1957) Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns. Tellus 9 275-295.
    • (1957) Tellus , vol.9 , pp. 275-295
    • Thompson, P.D.1
  • 102
    • 0002789334 scopus 로고
    • General characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation
    • Glantz MH, Katz RW and Nicholls N (eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
    • TRENBERTH KE (1991) General characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In: Glantz MH, Katz RW and Nicholls N (eds.) Teleconnetions Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies: Scientific Basis and Societal Impact. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 13-42.
    • (1991) Teleconnetions Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies: Scientific Basis and Societal Impact , pp. 13-42
    • Trenberth, K.E.1
  • 104
    • 0000470576 scopus 로고
    • Correlations in seasonal variations of weather, VIII. A preliminary study of world weather (World Weather I)
    • WALKER GT (1923) Correlations in seasonal variations of weather, VIII. A preliminary study of world weather (World Weather I). Memoirs Indian Meteorol. Dept. 24 75-131.
    • (1923) Memoirs Indian Meteorol. Dept. , vol.24 , pp. 75-131
    • Walker, G.T.1
  • 105
    • 0000470576 scopus 로고
    • Correlations in seasonal variations of weather, IX A further study of world weather (World Weather II)
    • WALKER GT (1924) Correlations in seasonal variations of weather, IX A further study of world weather (World Weather II). Memoirs Indian MeteoroL Dept. 24 275-332.
    • (1924) Memoirs Indian MeteoroL Dept. , vol.24 , pp. 275-332
    • Walker, G.T.1
  • 106
    • 0002045192 scopus 로고
    • World Weather IV - Some applications to seasonal forecasting
    • WALKER GT and BLISS EW (1930) World Weather IV - Some applications to seasonal forecasting. Memoirs Royal Meteorol. Soc. 3 81-95.
    • (1930) Memoirs Royal Meteorol. Soc. , vol.3 , pp. 81-95
    • Walker, G.T.1    Bliss, E.W.2
  • 107
    • 0019704889 scopus 로고
    • Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter
    • WALLACE JM and GUTZLER DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Weather Rev. 109 784-812.
    • (1981) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.109 , pp. 784-812
    • Wallace, J.M.1    Gutzler, D.S.2
  • 108
    • 0006516511 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of seasonal rainfall in the Northern Nordeste region of Brazil
    • Gregroy S (ed.) Belhaven Press, London
    • WARD MN, BROOKS KS and FOLLAND CK (1988) Predictability of seasonal rainfall in the Northern Nordeste region of Brazil. In: Gregroy S (ed.) Recent Climate Change. Belhaven Press, London. 237-251.
    • (1988) Recent Climate Change , pp. 237-251
    • Ward, M.N.1    Brooks, K.S.2    Folland, C.K.3
  • 110
    • 0020427733 scopus 로고
    • The value of seasonal climate forecasts in managing energy resources
    • WEISS EB (1982) The value of seasonal climate forecasts in managing energy resources. J. Appl. Meteorol. 21 510-516.
    • (1982) J. Appl. Meteorol. , vol.21 , pp. 510-516
    • Weiss, E.B.1
  • 111
    • 0000850522 scopus 로고
    • Modes of tropical circulation. Southern Oscillation and Sahel rainfall anomalies
    • WOLTER K (1989) Modes of tropical circulation. Southern Oscillation and Sahel rainfall anomalies. J. Clim. 2 149-172.
    • (1989) J. Clim. , vol.2 , pp. 149-172
    • Wolter, K.1
  • 112
    • 0000335201 scopus 로고
    • A model El Niño - Southern Oscillation
    • ZEBIAK SE and CANE MA (1987) A model El Niño - Southern Oscillation. Man. Weather Rev. 115 2262-2278.
    • (1987) Man. Weather Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 2262-2278
    • Zebiak, S.E.1    Cane, M.A.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.