Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Volumn 1436, Issue 1, 2019, Pages 157-173

  Caminade, Cyril ^a,b   McIntyre, K Marie ^a,b   Jones, Anne E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

^b NIHR Health Protections Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

climate change; emerging disease; public health; vector borne disease; water borne disease

Indexed keywords

AIR QUALITY; ARBOVIRUS; ARCTIC; BEHAVIOR; BLUETONGUE; CHIKUNGUNYA VIRUS; CIVILIZATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONFLICT; DENGUE VIRUS; DISEASE CARRIER; EUROPE; FOOD INDUSTRY; FUNDING; HELMINTH; HUMAN; INFECTION; INFECTIOUS AGENT; INSECTICIDE RESISTANCE; MALARIA; NONHUMAN; PARASITE; POLITICS; PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE; REVIEW; SEA LEVEL RISE; THREAT; TICK BORNE DISEASE; TROPICS; WATER BORNE DISEASE; WATER SUPPLY; WEST NILE VIRUS; YELLOW FEVER VIRUS; ZIKA VIRUS; ANIMAL; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE;

ANIMALS; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; DISEASE VECTORS; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL;

EID: 85052636338     PISSN: 00778923     EISSN: 17496632     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13950     Document Type: Review

References (202)

1. Mann, M.E., R.S. Bradley & M.K. Hughes. 1999. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26: 759–762
2. Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, et al., Eds. 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press
3. Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, et al. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press
4. Watts, N., W.N. Adger, S. Ayeb-Karlsson, et al. 2017. The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change. Lancet 389: 1151–1164
5. Watts, N., M. Amann, S. Ayeb-Karlsson, et al. 2018. The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health. Lancet 391: 581–630
6. McIntyre, K.M., C. Setzkorn, P.J. Hepworth, et al. 2017. Systematic assessment of the climate sensitivity of important human and domestic animals pathogens in Europe. Sci. Rep. 7: 7134
7. McMichael, A.J. 2012. Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 109: 4730–4737
8. Diamond, J. 1997. Guns, Germs, and Steel: the Fates of Human Societies. Vol. 44. New York Review Books
9. WHO Ebola Response Team. 2014. Ebola virus disease in West Africa—the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. N. Engl. J. Med. 371: 1481–1495
10. Woolhouse, M.E. & S. Gowtage-Sequeria. 2005. Host range and emerging and reemerging pathogens. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11: 1842–1847
11. Kibret, S., G.G. Wilson, D. Ryder, et al. 2017. The influence of dams on malaria transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ecohealth 14: 408–419
12. Boyce, R., R. Reyes, M. Matte, et al. 2016. Severe flooding and malaria transmission in the western Ugandan Highlands: implications for disease control in an era of global climate change. J. Infect. Dis. 214: 1403–1410
13. Scott, T.W., P.H. Amerasinghe, A.C. Morrison, et al. 2000. Longitudinal studies of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Thailand and Puerto Rico: blood feeding frequency. J. Med. Entomol. 37: 89–101
14. Reisen, W.K., Y. Fang & V.M. Martinez. 2006. Effects of temperature on the transmission of West Nile Virus by Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae). J. Med. Entomol. 43: 309–317
15. Brady, O.J., M.A. Johansson, C.A. Guerra, et al. 2013. Modelling adult Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus survival at different temperatures in laboratory and field settings. Parasit. Vectors 6: 351
16. Dye, C. 1986. Vectorial capacity: must we measure all its components? Parasitol. Today 2: 203–209
17. Lafferty, K.D. & E.A. Mordecai. 2016. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world. F1000Res. 5. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.8766.1
18. Woodward, A., K.R. Smith, D. Campbell-Lendrum, et al. 2014. Climate change and health: on the latest IPCC report. Lancet 383: 1185–1189
19. Keesing, F., L.K. Belden, P. Daszak, et al. 2010. Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. Nature 468: 647–652
20. Hay, S.I., D.J. Rogers, S.E. Randolph, et al. 2002. Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands. Trends Parasitol. 18: 530–534
21. Hay, S.I., J. Cox, D.J. Rogers, et al. 2002. Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands. Nature 415: 905–909
22. Patz, J.A., M. Hulme, C. Rosenzweig, et al. 2002. Climate change: regional warming and malaria resurgence. Nature 420: 627–628; discussion 628
23. Pascual, M., J.A. Ahumada, L.F. Chaves, et al. 2006. Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103: 5829–5834
24. Alonso, D., M.J. Bouma & M. Pascual. 2011. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland. Proc. Biol. Sci. R. Soc. 278: 1661–1669
25. Omumbo, J.A., B. Lyon, S.M. Waweru, et al. 2011. Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate. Malar. J. 10: 12
26. Chaves, L.F. & C.J.M. Koenraadt. 2010. Climate change and highland malaria: fresh air for a hot debate. Q. Rev. Biol. 85: 27–55
27. Garamszegi, L.Z. 2011. Climate change increases the risk of malaria in birds. Glob. Change Biol. 17: 1751–1759
28. Zamora-Vilchis, I., S.E. Williams & C.N. Johnson. 2012. Environmental temperature affects prevalence of blood parasites of birds on an elevation gradient: implications for disease in a warming climate. PLoS One 7: e39208
29. Reperant, L.A., N.S. Fuckar, A.D. Osterhaus, et al. 2010. Spatial and temporal association of outbreaks of H5N1 influenza virus infection in wild birds with the 0 degrees C isotherm. PLoS. Pathog. 6: e1000854
30. Baylis, M. & A.P. Morse. 2012. Disease, Human and Animal Health and Environmental Change. The SAGE Handbook of Environmental Change: Volume 2. London: SAGE Publications Ltd
31. Campbell-Lendrum, D., L. Manga, M. Bagayoko, et al. 2015. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy? Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 370. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0552
32. Lozano, R., M. Naghavi, K. Foreman, et al. 2012. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 380: 2095–2128
33. Altizer, S., R.S. Ostfeld, P.T. Johnson, et al. 2013. Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework. Science 341: 514–519
34. WHO. 2017. World malaria report. World Health Organization, Geneva
35. Martens, W.J.M., T.H. Jetten & D.A. Focks. 1997. Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming. Clim. Change 35: 145–156
36. Detinova, T.S. 1962. Age-grouping methods in Diptera of medical importance with special reference to some vectors of malaria. Monogr. Ser. World Health Organ. 47: 13–191
37. Paaijmans, K.P., S. Blanford, A.S. Bell, et al. 2010. Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 107: 15135–15139
38. Craig, M.H., R.W. Snow & D. le Sueur. 1999. A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitol. Today 15: 105–111
39. Kelly-Hope, L.A., J. Hemingway & F.E. McKenzie. 2009. Environmental factors associated with the malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus in Kenya. Malar. J. 8: 268
40. Gething, P.W., D.L. Smith, A.P. Patil, et al. 2010. Climate change and the global malaria recession. Nature 465: 342–345
41. Feachem, R.G., A.A. Phillips, J. Hwang, et al. 2010. Shrinking the malaria map: progress and prospects. Lancet 376: 1566–1578
42. Walker, P.G.T., J.T. Griffin, N.M. Ferguson, et al. 2016. Estimating the most efficient allocation of interventions to achieve reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria burden and transmission in Africa: a modelling study. Lancet Glob. Health 4: E474–E484
43. Siraj, A.S., M. Santos-Vega, M.J. Bouma, et al. 2014. Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia. Science 343: 1154–1158
44. Zhou, G., Y.A. Afrane, A.M. Vardo-Zalik, et al. 2011. Changing patterns of malaria epidemiology between 2002 and 2010 in Western Kenya: the fall and rise of malaria. PLoS One 6: e20318
45. Afrane, Y.A., G. Zhou, A.K. Githeko, et al. 2014. Clinical malaria case definition and malaria attributable fraction in the highlands of western Kenya. Malar. J. 13: 405
46. Alemu, K., A. Worku, Y. Berhane & A. Kumie, et al. 2014. Spatiotemporal clusters of malaria cases at village level, northwest Ethiopia. Malar. J. 13: 223
47. Dhimal, M., B. Ahrens & U. Kuch. 2014. Species composition, seasonal occurrence, habitat preference and altitudinal distribution of malaria and other disease vectors in eastern Nepal. Parasit. Vectors 7: 540
48. Dhimal, M., R.B. O'Hara, R. Karki, et al. 2014. Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria and its association with climatic factors and vector-control interventions in two high-risk districts of Nepal. Malar. J. 13: 457
49. Dhimal, M., B. Ahrens & U. Kuch. 2014. Altitudinal shift of malaria vectors and malaria elimination in Nepal. Malar. J. 13: P26
50. Dhimal, M., B. Ahrens & U. Kuch. 2015. Climate change and spatiotemporal distributions of vector-borne diseases in Nepal—a systematic synthesis of literature. PLoS One 10: e0129869
51. Gone, T., M. Balkew & T. Gebre-Michael. 2014. Comparative entomological study on ecology and behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in highland and lowland localities of Derashe District, southern Ethiopia. Parasit. Vectors 7: 483
52. Kweka, E.J., L. Kamau, S. Munga, et al. 2013. A first report of Anopheles funestus sibling species in western Kenya highlands. Acta Trop. 128: 158–161
53. Pinault, L.L. & F.F. Hunter. 2011. New highland distribution records of multiple Anopheles species in the Ecuadorian Andes. Malar. J. 10: 236
54. Stevenson, J., B. St Laurent, N.F. Lobo, et al. 2012. Novel vectors of malaria parasites in the western highlands of Kenya. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 18: 1547–1549
55. Asante, K.P., S. Abdulla & S. Agnandji. 2011. Safety and efficacy of the RTS,S/AS01 candidate malaria vaccine given with expanded-programme-on-immunisation vaccines: 19 month follow-up of a randomised, open-label, phase 2 trial (vol. 11, pg 741, 2011). Lancet Infect. Dis. 11: 727–727
56. Loiseau, C., R.J. Harrigan, A.J. Cornel, et al. 2012. First evidence and predictions of Plasmodium transmission in Alaskan bird populations. PLoS One 7: e44729
57. White, N.J. 2008. Plasmodium knowlesi: the fifth human malaria parasite. Clin. Infect. Dis. 46: 172–173
58. Martens, W.J.M., L.W. Niessen, J. Rotmans, et al. 1995. Potential impact of global climate-change on malaria risk. Environ. Health Perspect. 103: 458–464
59. Martens, P., R.S. Kovats, S. Nijhof, et al. 1999. Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria. Glob. Environ. Change 9: S89–S107
60. Tanser, F.C., B. Sharp & D. le Sueur. 2003. Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa. Lancet 362: 1792–1798
61. van Lieshout, M., R.S. Kovats, M.T.J. Livermore, et al. 2004. Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Glob. Environ. Change 14: 87–99
62. Ermert, V., A.H. Fink, A.P. Morse, et al. 2012. The impact of regional climate change on malaria risk due to greenhouse forcing and land-use changes in tropical Africa. Environ. Health Perspect. 120: 77–84
63. Caminade, C., S. Kovats, J. Rocklov, et al. 2014. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 111: 3286–3291
64. Tonnang, H.E., R.Y. Kangalawe & P.Z. Yanda. 2010. Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa. Malar. J. 9: 111
65. Rogers, D.J. & S.E. Randolph. 2000. The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science 289: 1763–1766
66. Beguin, A., S. Hales, J. Rocklov, et al. 2011. The opposing effects of climate change and socio-economic development on the global distribution of malaria. Glob. Environ. Change 21: 1209–1214
67. Reiter, P. 2001. Climate change and mosquito-borne disease. Environ. Health Perspect. 109: 141–161
68. Andriopoulos, P., A. Economopoulou, G. Spanakos, et al. 2013. A local outbreak of autochthonous Plasmodium vivax malaria in Laconia, Greece—a re-emerging infection in the southern borders of Europe? Int. J. Infect. Dis. 17: e125–e128
69. Velasco, E., D. Gomez-Barroso, C. Varela, et al. 2017. Non-imported malaria in non-endemic countries: a review of cases in Spain. Malar. J. 16: 260
70. Benelli, G., M. Pombi & D. Otranto. 2018. Malaria in Italy—migrants are not the cause. Trends Parasitol. 34: 351–354
71. Bonovas, S. & G. Nikolopoulos. 2012. High-burden epidemics in Greece in the era of economic crisis. Early signs of a public health tragedy. J. Prev. Med. Hyg. 53: 169–171
72. Gao, H.W., L.P. Wang, S. Liang, et al. 2012. Change in rainfall drives malaria re-emergence in Anhui Province, China. PLoS One 7: e43686
73. Tong, M.X., A. Hansen, S. Hanson-Easey, et al. 2018. China's capacity of hospitals to deal with infectious diseases in the context of climate change. Soc. Sci. Med. 206: 60–66
74. Ashley, E.A., A. Pyae Phyo & C.J. Woodrow. 2018. Malaria. Lancet 391: 1608–1621
75. Cohen, J.M., D.L. Smith, C. Cotter, et al. 2012. Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes. Malar. J. 11: 122
76. Hemingway, J. 2017. The way forward for vector control. Science 358: 998–999
77. World Health Organization (WHO). 2009. Dengue: Guidelines for Diagnosis, Treatment, Prevention and Control-New Edition; WHO: Geneva, Switzerland
78. Bhatt, S., P.W. Gething, O.J. Brady, et al. 2013. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature 496: 504–507
79. Medlock, J.M., K.M. Hansford, F. Schaffner, et al. 2012. A review of the invasive mosquitoes in Europe: ecology, public health risks, and control options. Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis. 12: 435–447
80. Reiter, P. & D. Sprenger. 1987. The used tire trade—a mechanism for the worldwide dispersal of container breeding mosquitos. J. Am. Mosq. Control Assoc. 3: 494–501
81. Hawley, W.A., P. Reiter, R.S. Copeland, et al. 1987. Aedes albopictus in North America—probable introduction in used tires from Northern Asia. Science 236: 1114–1116
82. Benedict, M.Q., R.S. Levine, W.A. Hawley, et al. 2007. Spread of the tiger: global risk of invasion by the mosquito Aedes albopictus. Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis. 7: 76–85
83. Gubler, D.J. 2011. Dengue, urbanization and globalization: the unholy trinity of the 21(st) century. Trop. Med. Health 39: 3–11
84. Weaver, S.C. 2014. Arrival of chikungunya virus in the new world: prospects for spread and impact on public health. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 8: e2921
85. Schaffner, F., D. Fontenille & A. Mathis. 2014. Autochthonous dengue emphasises the threat of arbovirosis in Europe. Lancet Infect. Dis. 14: 1044
86. Perkins, T.A., C.J. Metcalf, B.T. Grenfell & A.J. Tateme. 2015. Estimating drivers of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya virus in its invasion of the americas. PLoS Curr. 7. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.a4c7b6ac10e0420b1788c9767946d1fc
87. Caglioti, C., E. Lalle, C. Castilletti, et al. 2013. Chikungunya virus infection: an overview. New Microbiol. 36: 211–227
88. Thomas, S.J. & T.P. Endy. 2013. Current issues in dengue vaccination. Curr. Opin. Infect. Dis. 26: 429–434
89. Weaver, S.C., J.E. Osorio, J.A. Livengood, et al. 2012. Chikungunya virus and prospects for a vaccine. Expert Rev. Vaccines 11: 1087–1101
90. Flasche, S., M. Jit, I. Rodriguez-Barraquer, et al. 2016. The long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia): a model comparison study. PLoS Med. 13: e1002181
91. Adalja, A.A., T.K. Sell, N. Bouri, et al. 2012. Lessons learned during dengue outbreaks in the United States, 2001–2011. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 18: 608–614
92. Sousa, C.A., M. Clairouin, G. Seixas, et al. 2012. Ongoing outbreak of dengue type 1 in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal: preliminary report. Euro Surveill. 17: 15–18
93. Gould, E.A., P. Gallian, X. de Lamballerie, et al. 2010. First cases of autochthonous dengue fever and chikungunya fever in France: from bad dream to reality! Clin. Microbiol. Infect. 16: 1702–1704
94. Paty, M.C., C. Six, F. Charlet, et al. 2014. Large number of imported chikungunya cases in mainland France, 2014: a challenge for surveillance and response. Euro Surveill. 19: 20856
95. Gjenero-Margan, I., B. Aleraj, D. Krajcar, et al. 2011. Autochthonous dengue fever in Croatia, August–September 2010. Euro Surveill. 16: pii: 19805
96. Jin, X., M. Lin & J. Shu. 2015. Dengue fever in China: an emerging problem demands attention. Emerg. Microbes Infect. 4: e3
97. Kutsuna, S., Y. Kato, M.L. Moi, et al. 2015. Autochthonous dengue fever, Tokyo, Japan, 2014. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 21: 517–520
98. Angelini, R., A.C. Finarelli, P. Angelini, et al. 2007. An outbreak of chikungunya fever in the province of Ravenna, Italy. Euro Surveill. 12: E070906.1
99. Staples, J.E. & M. Fischer. 2014. Chikungunya virus in the Americas—what a vectorborne pathogen can do. N. Engl. J. Med. 371: 887–889
100. Fischer, M. & J.E. Staples. 2014. Notes from the field: chikungunya virus spreads in the Americas—Caribbean and South America, 2013–2014. MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep. 63: 500–501
101. Messina, J.P., O.J. Brady, D.M. Pigott, et al. 2015. The many projected futures of dengue. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 13: 230–239
102. Tsetsarkin, K.A., D.L. Vanlandingham, C.E. Mcgee, et al. 2007. A single mutation in chikungunya virus affects vector specificity and epidemic potential. PLoS Pathog. 3: 1895–1906
103. Gould, E.A. & S. Higgs. 2009. Impact of climate change and other factors on emerging arbovirus diseases. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 103: 109–121
104. ECDC. 2009. Development of Aedes albopictus risk maps. ECDC. Technical Report No. 0905
105. Fischer, D., S.M. Thomas, F. Niemitz, et al. 2011. Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Glob. Planet Change 78: 54–64
106. Rochlin, I., D.V. Ninivaggi, M.L. Hutchinson & A. Farajollahi. 2013. Climate change and range expansion of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) in Northeastern USA: implications for public health practitioners. PLoS One 8: e60874
107. Fischer, D., S.M. Thomas, M. Neteler, et al. 2014. Climatic suitability of Aedes albopictus in Europe referring to climate change projections: comparison of mechanistic and correlative niche modelling approaches. Euro Surveill. 19: 34–46
108. Ogden, N.H., R. Milka, C. Caminade, et al. 2014. Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus. Parasit. Vectors 7: 532
109. Caminade, C., J.M. Medlock, E. Ducheyne, et al. 2012. Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios. J. R. Soc. Interface 9: 2708–2717
110. Hill, M.P., J.K. Axford & A.A. Hoffmann. 2014. Predicting the spread of Aedes albopictus in Australia under current and future climates: multiple approaches and datasets to incorporate potential evolutionary divergence. Austral. Ecol. 39: 469–478
111. Mogi, M. & N. Tuno. 2014. Impact of climate change on the distribution of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Northern Japan: retrospective analyses. J. Med. Entomol. 51: 572–579
112. Proestos, Y., G.K. Christophides, K. Erguler, et al. 2015. Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 370. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0554
113. Rogers, D.J. 2015. Dengue: recent past and future threats. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 370. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0562
114. Campbell, L.P., C. Luther, D. Moo-Llanes, et al. 2015. Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 370. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0135
115. Kraemer, M.U., M.E. Sinka, K.A. Duda, et al. 2015. The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Elife 4: e08347
116. Reiter, P. 2010. Yellow fever and dengue: a threat to Europe? Euro Surveill. 15: 19509
117. Patz, J.A., W.J.M. Martens, D.A. Focks, et al. 1998. Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change. Environ. Health Perspect. 106: 147–153
118. Jetten, T.H. & D.A. Focks. 1997. Potential changes in the distribution of dengue transmission under climate warming. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 57: 285–297
119. Astrom, C., J. Rocklov, S. Hales, et al. 2012. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development. Ecohealth 9: 448–454
120. Hales, S., N. de Wet, J. Maindonald, et al. 2002. Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model. Lancet 360: 830–834
121. Liu-Helmersson, J., M. Quam, A. Wilder-Smith, et al. 2016. Climate change and Aedes vectors: 21st century projections for dengue transmission in Europe. EBioMedicine 7: 267–277
122. Fischer, D., S.M. Thomas, J.E. Suk, et al. 2013. Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector's climatic suitability and virus' temperature requirements. Int. J. Health Geogr. 12: 51
123. Tjaden, N.B., J.E. Suk, D. Fischer, et al. 2017. Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21(st) century. Sci. Rep. 7: 3813
124. Faria, N.R., J. Quick, I.M. Claro, et al. 2017. Establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas. Nature 546: 406–410
125. Epelboin, Y., S. Talaga, L. Epelboin, et al. 2017. Zika virus: an updated review of competent or naturally infected mosquitoes. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 11: e0005933
126. Cauchemez, S., M. Besnard, P. Bompard, et al. 2016. Association between Zika virus and microcephaly in French Polynesia, 2013–15: a retrospective study. Lancet 387: 2125–2132
127. Paz, S. & J.C. Semenza. 2016. El Nino and climate change—contributing factors in the dispersal of Zika virus in the Americas? Lancet 387: 745
128. Gagnon, A.S., A.B.G. Bush & K.E. Smoyer-Tomic. 2001. Dengue epidemics and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Climate Res. 19: 35–43
129. Patz, J.A., D. Campbell-Lendrum, T. Holloway, et al. 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438: 310–317
130. Chretien, J.P., A. Anyamba, J. Small, et al. 2015. Global climate anomalies and potential infectious disease risks: 2014–2015. PLoS Curr. 7. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.95fbc4a8fb4695e049baabfc2fc8289f
131. Hales, S., P. Weinstein, Y. Souares, et al. 1999. El Nino and the dynamics of vectorborne disease transmission. Environ. Health Perspect. 107: 99–102
132. Cai, W.J., S. Borlace, M. Lengaigne, et al. 2014. Increasing frequency of extreme El Nino events due to greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4: 111–116
133. Caminade, C., J. Turner, S. Metelmann, et al. 2017. Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Nino 2015. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 114: 119–124
134. Kraemer, M.U.G., O.J. Brady, A. Watts, et al. 2017. Zika virus transmission in Angola and the potential for further spread to other African settings. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 111: 527–529
135. Lourenco, J., M.M. de Lima, N.R. Faria, et al. 2017. Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting. Elife 6. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.29820
136. Sorensen, S.E. et al. 2017. Climate variability, vulnerability, and natural disasters: a case study of Zika virus in Manabi, Ecuador following the 2016 earthquake. GeoHealth 1: 298–304
137. Muñoz, A.G., M.C. Thomson, A.M. Stewart-Ibarra, et al. 2017. Could the recent Zika epidemic have been predicted? Front. Microbiol. 8: 1291
138. Ferguson, N.M., Z.M. Cucunuba, I. Dorigatti, et al. 2016. Epidemiology. Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America. Science 353: 353–354
139. Human Rights Watch. 2017. Neglected and unprotected: the impact of the Zika outbreak on women and girls in northeastern Brazil. Human Rights Watch. https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/wrdzika0717_web_0.pdf. Accessed July 30, 2018
140. Paz, S. 2015. Climate change impacts on West Nile virus transmission in a global context. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 370. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2013.0561
141. Epstein, P.R. 2001. West Nile virus and the climate. J. Urban Health 78: 367–371
142. Petersen, L.R. & J.T. Roehrig. 2001. West Nile virus: a reemerging global pathogen. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 7: 611–614
143. Soverow, J.E., G.A. Wellenius, D.N. Fisman, et al. 2009. Infectious disease in a warming world: how weather influenced West Nile Virus in the United States (2001–2005). Environ. Health Perspect. 117: 1049–1052
144. Reisen, W., H. Lothrop, R. Chiles, et al. 2004. West Nile virus in California. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 10: 1369–1378
145. Hubalek, Z. & J. Halouzka. 1999. West Nile fever—a reemerging mosquito-borne viral disease in Europe. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 5: 643–650
146. Platonov, A.E., M.V. Fedorova, L.S. Karan, et al. 2008. Epidemiology of West Nile infection in Volgograd, Russia, in relation to climate change and mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) bionomics. Parasitol. Res. 103(Suppl. 1): S45–S53
147. Suss, J., C. Klaus, F.W. Gerstengarbe, et al. 2008. What makes ticks tick? Climate change, ticks, and tick-borne diseases. J. Travel. Med. 15: 39–45
148. Medlock, J.M., K.M. Hansford, A. Bormane, et al. 2013. Driving forces for changes in geographical distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe. Parasit. Vectors 6: 1
149. Lindgren, E., L. Talleklint & T. Polfeldt. 2000. Impact of climatic change on the northern latitude limit and population density of the disease-transmitting European tick Ixodes ricinus. Environ. Health Perspect. 108: 119–123
150. Daniel, M., V. Danielova, B. Kriz, et al. 2003. Shift of the tick Ixodes ricinus and tick-borne encephalitis to higher altitudes in central Europe. Eur. J. Clin. Microbiol. Infect. Dis. 22: 327–328
151. Danielova, V., M. Daniel, L. Schwarzova, et al. 2010. Integration of a tick-borne encephalitis virus and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato into mountain ecosystems, following a shift in the altitudinal limit of distribution of their vector, Ixodes ricinus (Krkonose mountains, Czech Republic). Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 10: 223–230
152. Gilbert, L. 2010. Altitudinal patterns of tick and host abundance: a potential role for climate change in regulating tick-borne diseases? Oecologia 162: 217–225
153. Alkishe, A.A., A.T. Peterson & A.M. Samy. 2017. Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus. PLoS One 12: e0189092
154. ECDC. 2014. Fact sheet Lyme borreliosis in Europe. Accessed April 24, 2018. https://ecdc.europa.eu/sites/portal/files/media/en/healthtopics/vectors/world-health-day-2014/Documents/factsheet-lyme-borreliosis.pdf
155. Eisen, R.J., L. Eisen & C.B. Beard. 2016. County-scale distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the Continental United States. J. Med. Entomol. 53: 349–386
156. Ogden, N.H., A. Maarouf, I.K. Barker, et al. 2006. Climate change and the potential for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada. Int. J. Parasitol. 36: 63–70
157. Brownstein, J.S., T.R. Holford & D. Fish. 2005. Effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk in North America. Ecohealth 2: 38–46
158. Levy, S. 2017. Northern Trek: the spread of Ixodes scapularis into Canada. Environ. Health Perspect. 125: 074002
159. Government of Canada. 2018. Surveillance of Lyme disease. Vol. 2018. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/lyme-disease/surveillance-lyme-disease.html. Accessed July 30, 2018
160. McPherson, M., A. Garcia-Garcia, F.J. Cuesta-Valero, et al. 2017. Expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes Scapularis in Canada inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections. Environ. Health Perspect. 125: 057008
161. Korotkov, Y., T. Kozlova & L. Kozlovskaya. 2015. Observations on changes in abundance of questing Ixodes ricinus, castor bean tick, over a 35-year period in the eastern part of its range (Russia, Tula region). Med. Vet. Entomol. 29: 129–136
162. Tokarevich, N.K., A.A. Tronin, O.V. Blinova, et al. 2011. The impact of climate change on the expansion of Ixodes persulcatus habitat and the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis in the north of European Russia. Glob. Health Action 4: 8448
163. Estrada-Pena, A., N. Ayllon & J. de la Fuente. 2012. Impact of climate trends on tick-borne pathogen transmission. Front. Physiol. 3: 64
164. Randolph, S.E. 2004. Evidence that climate change has caused ‘emergence’ of tick-borne diseases in Europe? Int. J. Med. Microbiol. 293: 5–15
165. Purse, B.V., P.S. Mellor, D.J. Rogers, et al. 2005. Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 3: 171–181
166. Baylis, M., C. Caminade, J. Turner & A.E. Jones. 2017. The role of climate change in a developing threat: the case of bluetongue in Europe. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz. 36: 467–478
167. Velthuis, A.G.J., H.W. Saatkamp, M.C.M. Mourits, et al. 2010. Financial consequences of the Dutch bluetongue serotype 8 epidemics of 2006 and 2007. Prev. Vet. Med. 93: 294–304
168. DEFRA. 2018. Bluetongue virus (BTV-4) in France. Accessed April 26, 2018. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/672024/btv4-france-update2.pdf
169. Guis, H., C. Caminade, C. Calvete, et al. 2012. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe. J. R. Soc. Interface 9: 339–350
170. Hendrickx, G., M. Gilbert, C. Staubach, et al. 2008. A wind density model to quantify the airborne spread of Culicoides species during North-Western Europe bluetongue epidemic, 2006. Prev. Vet. Med. 87: 162–181
171. Sedda, L., H.E. Brown, B.V. Purse, et al. 2012. A new algorithm quantifies the roles of wind and midge flight activity in the bluetongue epizootic in northwest Europe. Proc. Biol. Sci. 279: 2354–2362
172. Ollerenshaw, C.B. & W.T. Rollands. 1959. A method of forecasting the incidence of fascioliasis in Anglesey. Vet. Rec. 71: 591–598
173. NADIS. 2018. Parasite forecast. Accessed April 30, 2018. http://www.nadis.org.uk/parasite-forecast.aspx
174. Zukowski, S.H., G.W. Wilkerson & J.B. Malone, Jr. 1993. Fasciolosis in cattle in Louisiana. II. Development of a system to use soil maps in a geographic information system to estimate disease risk on Louisiana coastal marsh rangeland. Vet. Parasitol. 47: 51–65
175. Fox, N.J., P.C. White, C.J. McClean, et al. 2011. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk. PLoS One 6: e16126
176. Caminade, C., J. van Dijk, M. Baylis, et al. 2015. Modelling recent and future climatic suitability for fasciolosis in Europe. Geospat. Health 9: 301–308
177. Haydock, L.A.J., W.E. Pomroy, M.A. Stevenson, et al. 2016. A growing degree-day model for determination of Fasciola hepatica infection risk in New Zealand with future predictions using climate change models. Vet. Parasitol. 228: 52–59
178. van Dijk, J., N.D. Sargison, F. Kenyon, et al. 2010. Climate change and infectious disease: helminthological challenges to farmed ruminants in temperate regions. Animal 4: 377–392
179. Kaplan, R.M. 2004. Drug resistance in nematodes of veterinary importance: a status report. Trends Parasitol. 20: 477–481
180. Rose, H., C. Caminade, M.B. Bolajoko, et al. 2016. Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe. Glob. Change Biol. 22: 1271–1285
181. Berry, A., J. Fillaux, G. Martin-Blondel, et al. 2016. Evidence for a permanent presence of schistosomiasis in Corsica, France, 2015. Euro Surveill. 21(1): https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.1.30100
182. McCreesh, N., G. Nikulin & M. Booth. 2015. Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa. Parasit. Vectors 8: 4
183. Zhou, X.N., G.J. Yang, K. Yang, et al. 2008. Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 78: 188–194
184. Dobson, A., P.K. Molnar & S. Kutz. 2015. Climate change and Arctic parasites. Trends Parasitol. 31: 181–188
185. Kutz, S.J., E.P. Hoberg, L. Polley & E.J. Jenkins. 2005. Global warming is changing the dynamics of Arctic host–parasite systems. Proc. Biol. Sci. 272: 2571–2576
186. Kutz, S.J., E.J. Jenkins, A.M. Veitch, et al. 2009. The Arctic as a model for anticipating, preventing, and mitigating climate change impacts on host–parasite interactions. Vet. Parasitol. 163: 217–228
187. Parmesan, C. & G. Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37–42
188. Kaneko, T. & R.R. Colwell. 1975. Incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Chesapeake Bay. Appl. Microbiol. 30: 251–257
189. Constantin de Magny, G. & R.R. Colwell. 2009. Cholera and climate: a demonstrated relationship. Trans. Am. Clin. Climatol. Assoc. 120: 119–128
190. Qadri, F., T. Islam & J.D. Clemens. 2017. Cholera in Yemen—an old foe rearing its ugly head. N. Engl. J. Med. 377: 2005–2007
191. Hunter, P.R. 2003. Climate change and waterborne and vector-borne disease. J. Appl. Microbiol. 94(Suppl.): 37S–46S
192. Epstein, P.R. 2005. Climate change and human health. N. Engl. J. Med. 353: 1433–1436
193. Kraemer, M.U.G., S.I. Hay, D.M. Pigott, et al. 2016. Progress and challenges in infectious disease cartography. Trends Parasitol. 32: 19–29
194. Tjaden, N.B., C. Caminade, C. Beierkuhnlein, et al. 2018. Mosquito-borne diseases: advances in modelling climate-change impacts. Trends Parasitol. 34: 227–245
195. Mordecai, E.A., K.P. Paaijmans, L.R. Johnson, et al. 2013. Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Ecol. Lett. 16: 22–30
196. Ballester, J., R. Lowe, P.J. Diggle, et al. 2016. Seasonal forecasting and health impact models: challenges and opportunities. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1382: 8–20
197. The malERA Refresh Consultative Panel on Combination Interventions and Modelling. 2017. malERA: an updated research agenda for combination interventions and modelling in malaria elimination and eradication. PLoS Med. 14: e1002453
198. Korenromp, E., G. Mahiane, M. Hamilton, et al. 2016. Malaria intervention scale-up in Africa: effectiveness predictions for health programme planning tools, based on dynamic transmission modelling. Malar. J. 15: 417
199. Stensgaard, A.S., M. Booth, G. Nikulin, et al. 2016. Combining process-based and correlative models improves predictions of climate change effects on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa. Geospatial Health 11: 94–101
200. Hay, S.I. & R.W. Snow. 2006. The malaria atlas project: developing global maps of malaria risk. PLoS Med. 3: 2204–2208
201. Warszawski, L., K. Frieler, V. Huber, et al. 2014. The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): project framework. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 111: 3228–3232
202. Berger, J., C. Hartway, A. Gruzdev & M. Johnson. 2018. Climate Degradation and Extreme Icing Events Constrain Life in Cold-Adapted Mammals. Nat. Sc. Rep. 8: 1156. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-19416-9