Effect of climate change on lyme disease risk in North America

EcoHealth

Volumn 2, Issue 1, 2005, Pages 38-46

  Brownstein, John S ^a,b,c   Holford, Theodore R ^a   Fish, Durland ^a  

^a YALE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^b BOSTON CHILDREN S HOSPITAL   (United States)

^c HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL   (United States)

Author keywords

Autologistic model; Geographic information systems; Global climate model; Greenhouse effect; Ixodes scapularis; Spatial model

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY; ARTICLE; BIOME; CANADA; CLIMATE CHANGE; DISEASE CONTROL; FORECASTING; HUMAN; IXODES SCAPULARIS; LYME DISEASE; MOVEMENT (PHYSIOLOGY); NORTH AMERICA; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROPHYLAXIS; RISK FACTOR; TICK BORNE DISEASE; UNITED STATES;

IXODES SCAPULARIS;

EID: 17644403510     PISSN: 16129202     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10393-004-0139-x     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. NH Augustin MA Mugglestone ST Buckland 1996 An autologistic model for the spatial distribution of wildlife Journal of Applied Ecology 33 339 347
2. NH Augustin MA Mugglestone ST Buckland 1998 The role of simulation in modelling spatially correlated data Environmetrics 9 175 196
3. AG Barbour D Fish 1993 The biological and social phenomenon of Lyme disease Science 260 1610 1616
4. IK Barker LR Lindsay 2000 Lyme borreliosis in Ontario: determining the risks (comment) Canadian Medical Association Journal 162 1573 1574
5. MR Bertrand ML Wilson 1996 Microclimate-dependent survival of unfed adult Ixodes scapularis (Acari:Ixodidae) in nature: life cycle and study design implications Journal of Medical Entomology 33 619 627
6. JS Brownstein TR Holford D Fish 2003 A climate-based model predicts the spatial distribution of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in the United States Environmental Health Perspectives 111 1152 1157
7. Campbell PR (1996) Population Projections for States - By Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, PPL-47, Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division
8. Carter TR, Hulme M, Lal M, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment (1999) Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Available: http://www. aiaccproject.org/meetings/Norwich_02/guidance_on_scenario_ use.pdf#search='IPCC%20guidelines%20on%20the%20use%20 of%20the%20scenario%20data' or http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru_data/support/ guidelines.html
9. GS Cumming 2002 Comparing climate and vegetation as limiting factors for species ranges of African ticks Ecology 82 255 268
10. DT Dennis TS Nekomoto JC Victor WS Paul J Piesman 1998 Reported distribution of Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in the United States Journal of Medical Entomology 35 629 638
11. SW Dister D Fish SM Bros DH Frank BL Wood 1997 Landscape characterization of peridomestic risk for Lyme disease using satellite imagery American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 57 687 692
12. L Duchateau RL Kruska BD Perry 1997 Reducing a spatial database to its effective dimensionality for logistic-regression analysis of incidence of livestock disease Preventive Veterinary Medicine 32 207 218
13. D Fish 1993 Population ecology of Ixodes damini H Ginsberg Ecology and Environmental Management of Lyme Disease Rutgers University Press New Brunswick, NJ 25 42
14. GM Flato GJ Boer WG Lee NA McFarlane D Ramsden MC Reader 2000 The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global couple model and its climate Climate Dynamics 16 451 467
15. GE Glass FP Amerasinghe JM Morgan III TW Scott 1994 Predicting Ixodes scapularis abundance on white-tailed deer using geographic information systems American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 51 538 544
16. M Guerra E Walker C Jones S Paskewitz MR Cortinas A Stancil 2002 Predicting the risk of Lyme disease: habitat suitability for Ixodes scapularis in the north central United States Emerging Infectious Diseases 8 289 297
17. S Hales N de Wet J Maindonald A Woodward 2002 Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model Lancet 360 830 834
18. EB Hayes J Piesman 2003 How can we prevent Lyme disease? New England Journal of Medicine 348 2424 2430
19. LR Holdridge 1971 Forest Environments in Tropical Life Zones: A Pilot Study Pergamon Press New York
20. 2 Global Change Biology 3 531 544
21. JE Keirans HJ Hutcheson LA Durden JS Klompen 1996 Ixodes scapularis (Acari:Ixodidae): redescription of all active stages, distribution, hosts, geographical variation, and medical and veterinary importance Journal of Medical Entomology 33 297 318
22. U Kitron JK Bouseman CJ Jones 1991 Use of ARC/INFO GIS to study the distribution of Lyme disease ticks in Illinois Preventive Veterinary Medicine 11 243 248
23. M Klich MW Lankester KW Wu 1996 Spring migratory birds (Aves) extend the northern occurrence of blacklegged tick (Acari:Ixodidae) Journal of Medical Entomology 33 581 585
24. E Lindgren L Talleklint T Polfeldt 2000 Impact of climatic change on the northern latitude limit and population density of the disease-transmitting European tick Ixodes ricinus Environmental Health Perspectives 108 119 123
25. SW Lindsay WJM Martens 1998 Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future Bulletin of the World Health Organization 76 33 34
26. LR Lindsay IK Barker GA Surgeoner SA McEwen TJ Gillespie JT Robinson 1995 Survival and development of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) under various climatic conditions in Ontario, Canada Journal of Medical Entomology 32 143 152
27. R Lindsay H Artsob I Barker 1998 Distribution of Ixodes pacificus and Ixodes scapularis re concurrent babesiosis and Lyme disease Canada Communicable Disease Report 24 121 122
28. TR Loveland BC Reed JF Brown DO Ohlen Z Zhu L Yang 2000 Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP DISCover from 1 km AVHRR data International Journal of Remote Sensing 15 1303 1330
29. WJ Martens LW Niessen J Rotmans TH Jetten AJ McMichael 1995 Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk Environmental Health Perspectives 103 458 464
30. GR Needham PD Teel 1991 Off-host physiological ecology of ixodid ticks Annual Review of Entomology 36 659 681
31. M New M Hulme P Jones 1999 Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: development of a 1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology Journal of Climate 12 829 856
32. MC Nicholson TN Mather 1996 Methods for evaluating Lyme disease risks using geographic information systems and geospatial analysis Journal of Medical Entomology 33 711 720
33. JH Oliver Jr GA Cummins MS Joiner 1993 Immature Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) parasitizing lizards from the south-eastern U.S.A Journal of Parasitology 79 684 689
34. KA Orloski EB Hayes GL Campbell DT Dennis 2000 Surveillance for Lyme disease-United States, 1992-1998 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 49 1 11
35. PE Osborne JC Alonso RG Bryant 2001 Modelling landscape-scale habitat use using GIS and remote sensing: a case study with great bustards Journal of Applied Ecology 38 458 471
36. JA Patz PR Epstein TA Burke JM Balbus 1996 Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases JAMA 275 217 223
37. JA Patz WJ Martens DA Focks TH Jetten 1998 Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change Environmental Health Perspectives 106 147 153
38. SE Randolph DJ Rogers 2000 Fragile transmission cycles of tick-borne encephalitis virus may be disrupted by predicted climate change Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B Biological Sciences 267 1741 1744
39. WC Reeves JL Hardy WK Reisen MM Milby 1994 Potential effect of global warming on mosquito-borne arboviruses Journal of Medical Entomology 31 323 332
40. T Robinson D Rogers B Williams 1997 Mapping tsetse habitat suitability in the common fly belt of southern Africa using multivariate analysis of climate and remotely sensed vegetation data Medical and Veterinary Entomology 11 235 245
41. DJ Rogers SE Randolph 2000 The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world Science 289 1763 1766
42. DJ Rogers SI Hay MJ Packer 1996 Predicting the distribution of tsetse flies in West Africa using temporal Fourier processed meteorological satellite data Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology 90 225 241
43. TL Schulze MF Lakat GS Bowen WE Parkin JK Shisler 1984 Ixodes dammini (Acari: Ixodidae) and other ixodid ticks collected from white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus in New Jersey USA 1. Geographical distribution and its relation to selected environmental and physical factors Journal of Medical Entomology 21 741 749
44. JD Scott K Fernando SN Banerjee LA Durden SK Byrne M Banerjee 2001 Birds disperse ixodid (Acari: Ixodidae) and Borrelia burgdorferi-infected ticks in Canada Journal of Medical Entomology 38 493 500
45. R Shope 1991 Global climate change and infectious diseases Environmental Health Perspectives 96 171 174
46. A Spielman ML Wilson JF Levine J Piesman 1985 Ecology of Ixodes dammini-borne human babesiosis and Lyme disease Annual Review of Entomology 30 439 460
47. KC Stafford III 1994 Survival of immature Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) at different relative humidities Journal of Medical Entomology 31 310 314
48. FC Tanser B Sharp D le Sueur 2003 Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa Lancet 362 1792 1798
49. U.S. Census Bureau (2000) Redistricting Census 2000 TIGER/Line Files (machine-readable data files), Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau
50. JK Vandyk DM Bartholomew WA Rowley KB Platt 1996 Survival of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) exposed to cold Journal of Medical Entomology 33 6 10
51. ED Walker RG McLean TW Smith SM Paskewitz 1996 Borrelia burgdorferi-infected Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) and Peromyscus leucopus in northeastern Wisconsin Journal of Medical Entomology 33 165 168
52. DE Wilson S Ruff 1999 The Smithsonian Book of North American Mammals Smithsonian Institution Press Washington, DC 816