Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: An empirical model

Lancet

Volumn 360, Issue 9336, 2002, Pages 830-834

  Hales, Simon ^a   De Wet, Neil ^b   Maindonald, John ^c   Woodward, Alistair ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OTAGO   (New Zealand)

^b International Global Change Institute   (New Zealand)

^c Biology and Environment   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; DENGUE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; GEOGRAPHY; GLOBAL CHANGE; HEALTH; HUMAN; HUMIDITY; POPULATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK FACTOR; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

EID: 0037077864     PISSN: 01406736     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(02)09964-6     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) . Climate Change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. 2001;Cambridge: University Press, Cambridge.
2. Committee on Climate Ecosystems Infectious Diseases and Human Health. Under the Weather, Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease. Washington: National Academy Press, 2001.
3. World Health Organisation . WHO report on global surveillance of epidemic-prone infectious diseases. 2000;WHO, Geneva.
4. Focks D., Haile D., Daniels E., Mount G. Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (L) (Diptera: Culicidae). Analysis of the literature and model development. J Med Entomol. 30:1993;1003-1017.
5. Patz J., Martens W., Focks D., Jetten T. Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change. Environ Health Perspect. 106:1998;147-153.
6. Martens W., Jetten T., Focks D. Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis and dengue to global warming. Climatic Change. 35:1997;145-156.
7. Martens P., Kovats R., Nijhof S., et al. Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria. Global Environ Change. 9:1999;S89-S107.
8. Hales S., Weinstein P., Souares Y., Woodward A. El Nino and the dynamics of vector borne disease transmission. Environ Health Perspect. 107:1999;99-102.
9. Rogers D., Randolph S. The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science. 289:2000;1763-1766.
10. Reiter P. Climate change and mosquito borne disease. Environ Health Perspect. 109:(suppl 1):2001;141-161.
11. Li Y. Global Population Distribution Database. http://grid2.cr.usgs.gov/globalpop/1-degree/(accessed March 13, 2002).
12. Bos E., Vu M., Massiah E., Bulatao R. World Population Projections 1994-95: Estimates and projections with related demographic statistics. 1994;Johns Hopkins University Press, New York.
13. New M., Hulme M., Jones P. Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J Climate. 12:1999;829-856.
14. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Data Distribution Centre. http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/index.html (accessed March 23, 2002).
15. Carter T., Hulme M., Lal M. Guidelines on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment. 1999;Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.
16. Roeckner E., Arpe K., Bengtsson L., et al. The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. 1996;Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg.
17. Johns T., Carnell R., Crossley J., et al. The Second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup and validation. Climate Dynamics. 13:1997;103-134.
18. Emori S., Nozawa T., Abe-Ouchi A., Numaguti A., Kimoto M., Nakajima T. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments of future climate change with an explicit representation of sulfate aerosol scattering. J Meteorol Soc Jpn. 77:1999;1299-1307.
19. Flato G., Boer G. Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophys Res Lett. 28:2001;195-198.
20. Flato G., Boer G., Lee W., et al. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate. Climate Dynamics. 16:2000;451-467.