메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 106, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 147-153

Dengue fever epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change

Author keywords

Aedes; Biological models; Climate; Dengue; Greenhouse effect; Risk assessment; Virus diseases

Indexed keywords

VIRUS VECTOR;

EID: 0031954857     PISSN: 00916765     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1289/ehp.98106147     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (253)

References (59)
  • 1
    • 0029279259 scopus 로고
    • Dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever: The emergence of a global health problem
    • Gubler DJ, Clark GC. Dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever: the emergence of a global health problem. Emerging Infectious Diseases 1:55-57 (1995).
    • (1995) Emerging Infectious Diseases , vol.1 , pp. 55-57
    • Gubler, D.J.1    Clark, G.C.2
  • 2
    • 0023818748 scopus 로고
    • Pathogenesis of dengue: Challenge to molecular biology
    • Halstead SB. Pathogenesis of dengue: challenge to molecular biology. Science 239:476-481 (1988).
    • (1988) Science , vol.239 , pp. 476-481
    • Halstead, S.B.1
  • 4
    • 0027855492 scopus 로고
    • Emergence of epidemic dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever as a public health problem in the Americas
    • Gubler DJ, Trent DW. Emergence of epidemic dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever as a public health problem in the Americas. Infect Agents Dis 2:383-393 (1994).
    • (1994) Infect Agents Dis , vol.2 , pp. 383-393
    • Gubler, D.J.1    Trent, D.W.2
  • 5
    • 0023276712 scopus 로고
    • Immunization with a live attenuated dengue-2-virus candidate vaccine (16681-PDK 53): Clinical, immunological and bi9logical responses in adult volunteers
    • Bhamarapravati N, Yoksan S, Chayaniyayothin T, Angsubphakorn S, Bunyaratvej A. Immunization with a live attenuated dengue-2-virus candidate vaccine (16681-PDK 53): clinical, immunological and bi9logical responses in adult volunteers. Bull World Health Org 65(2):189-195 (1987).
    • (1987) Bull World Health Org , vol.65 , Issue.2 , pp. 189-195
    • Bhamarapravati, N.1    Yoksan, S.2    Chayaniyayothin, T.3    Angsubphakorn, S.4    Bunyaratvej, A.5
  • 7
    • 0027860410 scopus 로고
    • Global epidemiology of dengue: Health systems in dissaray
    • Halstead SB. Global epidemiology of dengue: health systems in dissaray. Trop Med 35:137-146 (1993).
    • (1993) Trop Med , vol.35 , pp. 137-146
    • Halstead, S.B.1
  • 9
    • 0030033409 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases
    • Patz JA, Epstein PR, Burke TA, Balbus JM. Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases. JAMA 275:217-223 (1996).
    • (1996) JAMA , vol.275 , pp. 217-223
    • Patz, J.A.1    Epstein, P.R.2    Burke, T.A.3    Balbus, J.M.4
  • 10
    • 0007958703 scopus 로고
    • Factors influencing the uneven distribution of Aedes aegypti in Texas cities
    • Chandler AC. Factors influencing the uneven distribution of Aedes aegypti in Texas cities. Am J Trop Med 25:145-149 (1945).
    • (1945) Am J Trop Med , vol.25 , pp. 145-149
    • Chandler, A.C.1
  • 11
    • 0000792326 scopus 로고
    • Weather, vector biology, and arboviral recrudescence
    • Monath TP, ed. Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press
    • Reiter P. Weather, vector biology, and arboviral recrudescence. In: The Arboviruses: Epidemiology and Ecology, vol 1 (Monath TP, ed). Boca Raton, FL:CRC Press, 1988;245-255.
    • (1988) The Arboviruses: Epidemiology and Ecology , vol.1 , pp. 245-255
    • Reiter, P.1
  • 14
    • 0026650948 scopus 로고
    • Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios
    • Wigley TML, Raper SCB. Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature 357:293-300 (1992).
    • (1992) Nature , vol.357 , pp. 293-300
    • Wigley, T.M.L.1    Raper, S.C.B.2
  • 16
    • 0025482409 scopus 로고
    • Temperature-dependent development and survival rates of Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)
    • Rueda LM, Patel KJ, Axtell RC, Stinner RE. Temperature-dependent development and survival rates of Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). J Med Entomol 27:892-898 (1990).
    • (1990) J Med Entomol , vol.27 , pp. 892-898
    • Rueda, L.M.1    Patel, K.J.2    Axtell, R.C.3    Stinner, R.E.4
  • 18
    • 0030471595 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dengue fever epidemics in the South Pacific: Driven by El Niflo Southern Oscillation
    • Hales S, Weinstein P, Woodward A. Dengue fever epidemics in the South Pacific: driven by El Niflo Southern Oscillation. Lancet 348:1664-1665 (1996).
    • (1996) Lancet , vol.348 , pp. 1664-1665
    • Hales, S.1    Weinstein, P.2    Woodward, A.3
  • 19
    • 0000381936 scopus 로고
    • Prognosis for the interruption of malaria transmission through assessment of the mosquito's vectorial capacity
    • Garrett-Jones C. Prognosis for the interruption of malaria transmission through assessment of the mosquito's vectorial capacity. Nature 204:1173-1175 (1964).
    • (1964) Nature , vol.204 , pp. 1173-1175
    • Garrett-Jones, C.1
  • 20
    • 0028791263 scopus 로고
    • A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: Literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results
    • Focks DA, Daniels E, Haile DG, Keesling JE. A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results. Am J Trop Med Hyg 53:489-506 (1995).
    • (1995) Am J Trop Med Hyg , vol.53 , pp. 489-506
    • Focks, D.A.1    Daniels, E.2    Haile, D.G.3    Keesling, J.E.4
  • 22
    • 2642647070 scopus 로고
    • Global atmospheric change and human health: More than merely adding up the risks
    • Martens WJM, Rotmans J, Vrieze OJ. Global atmospheric change and human health: more than merely adding up the risks. World Resource Review 7:404-416 (1995).
    • (1995) World Resource Review , vol.7 , pp. 404-416
    • Martens, W.J.M.1    Rotmans, J.2    Vrieze, O.J.3
  • 24
    • 0030931981 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential changes in the distribution of dengue trensmission under climate warming
    • Jetten TH, Focks DA. Potential changes in the distribution of dengue trensmission under climate warming. Am J Trop Med Hyg 57(3):285-297 (1997).
    • (1997) Am J Trop Med Hyg , vol.57 , Issue.3 , pp. 285-297
    • Jetten, T.H.1    Focks, D.A.2
  • 25
    • 0027688672 scopus 로고
    • Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae). Analysis of the literature and model development
    • Focks DA, Haile DG, Daniels E, Mount GA. Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae). Analysis of the literature and model development. J Med Entomol 30:1003-1017 (1993).
    • (1993) J Med Entomol , vol.30 , pp. 1003-1017
    • Focks, D.A.1    Haile, D.G.2    Daniels, E.3    Mount, G.A.4
  • 26
    • 0027691734 scopus 로고
    • Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae), Simulation results and validation
    • Focks DA, Haile DG, Daniels E, Mount GA. Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae), Simulation results and validation. J Med Entomol 30:1018-1028 (1993).
    • (1993) J Med Entomol , vol.30 , pp. 1018-1028
    • Focks, D.A.1    Haile, D.G.2    Daniels, E.3    Mount, G.A.4
  • 27
    • 2642670301 scopus 로고
    • Correlation between cool season environmental temperatures and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) case rates in Bangkok, Thailand
    • Burke DS, Jatanasen S, Watts DM, Tang DB. Correlation between cool season environmental temperatures and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) case rates in Bangkok, Thailand. 10th Intl Congr Trop Med Malaria 56:35-36 (1980).
    • (1980) 10th Intl Congr Trop Med Malaria , vol.56 , pp. 35-36
    • Burke, D.S.1    Jatanasen, S.2    Watts, D.M.3    Tang, D.B.4
  • 28
    • 0025587429 scopus 로고
    • Mean seasonal and spatial variablity in global surface temperature
    • Legates DR, Willmott CJ. Mean seasonal and spatial variablity in global surface temperature. Theor Appl Clim 42:11-21 (1990).
    • (1990) Theor Appl Clim , vol.42 , pp. 11-21
    • Legates, D.R.1    Willmott, C.J.2
  • 30
    • 0028895320 scopus 로고
    • Transient response of the Haley Centre coupled ocean-atmospheric model to increasing carbon dioxide
    • Murphy JM. Transient response of the Haley Centre coupled ocean-atmospheric model to increasing carbon dioxide. J Clim 8:36 (1995).
    • (1995) J Clim , vol.8 , pp. 36
    • Murphy, J.M.1
  • 34
    • 1842307329 scopus 로고
    • Dengue activity in Puerto Rico, 1991
    • Anonymous. Dengue activity in Puerto Rico, 1991. Dengue Surveillance Summary 64:1-4 (1992).
    • (1992) Dengue Surveillance Summary , vol.64 , pp. 1-4
  • 35
    • 0018241220 scopus 로고
    • Aedes aegypti in Puerto Rico: Environmental determinants of larval abundance and relation to dengue virus transmission
    • Moore CG, Cline BL, Ruiz-Tiben E, Lee D, Romney-Joseph H, Rivera-Correa E. Aedes aegypti in Puerto Rico: environmental determinants of larval abundance and relation to dengue virus transmission. Am J Trop Med Hyg 27:1225-1231 (1978).
    • (1978) Am J Trop Med Hyg , vol.27 , pp. 1225-1231
    • Moore, C.G.1    Cline, B.L.2    Ruiz-Tiben, E.3    Lee, D.4    Romney-Joseph, H.5    Rivera-Correa, E.6
  • 36
    • 0026639437 scopus 로고
    • First reported outbreak of classical dengue fever at 1,700 meters above sea level in Guerrero State, Mexico, June 1988
    • Herrera-Basto E, Prevots DR, Luisa Zarate MA, Luis Suva J, Sepulveda-Armor J. First reported outbreak of classical dengue fever at 1,700 meters above sea level in Guerrero State, Mexico, June 1988. Am J Trop MedHyg 46:649-853 (1992).
    • (1992) Am J Trop MedHyg , vol.46 , pp. 649-853
    • Herrera-Basto, E.1    Prevots, D.R.2    Luisa Zarate, M.A.3    Luis Suva, J.4    Sepulveda-Armor, J.5
  • 37
    • 0018938517 scopus 로고
    • Transmission of dengue 1 and 2 viruses in Greece in 1928
    • Halstead SB, Papaevangelou G. Transmission of dengue 1 and 2 viruses in Greece in 1928. Am J Trop MedHyg 29:635-637 (1980).
    • (1980) Am J Trop MedHyg , vol.29 , pp. 635-637
    • Halstead, S.B.1    Papaevangelou, G.2
  • 38
    • 0010654727 scopus 로고
    • Climate change scenarios for impacts assessment
    • Viner D. Climate change scenarios for impacts assessment. Aspects Appl Biol 38:13-27 (1994).
    • (1994) Aspects Appl Biol , vol.38 , pp. 13-27
    • Viner, D.1
  • 39
    • 0015263785 scopus 로고
    • Studies on the life budget of Aedes aegypti in Wat Samphaya, Bangkok, Thailand
    • Southwood TRE, Murdie G, Yasuno M, Tonn RJ, Reader PM. Studies on the life budget of Aedes aegypti in Wat Samphaya, Bangkok, Thailand. Bull WHO 46:211-226 (1972).
    • (1972) Bull WHO , vol.46 , pp. 211-226
    • Southwood, T.R.E.1    Murdie, G.2    Yasuno, M.3    Tonn, R.J.4    Reader, P.M.5
  • 40
    • 0029750892 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Methods for assessing public health vulnerability to global climate change
    • Patz JA, Balbus JM. Methods for assessing public health vulnerability to global climate change. Clim Res 6:113-125 (1996).
    • (1996) Clim Res , vol.6 , pp. 113-125
    • Patz, J.A.1    Balbus, J.M.2
  • 42
    • 77049271014 scopus 로고
    • Aedes aegypti in Malaya.II. Larval and adult biology
    • Macdonald WW. Aedes aegypti in Malaya.II. Larval and adult biology. Ann Trop Med Parasit 50:399-414 (1956).
    • (1956) Ann Trop Med Parasit , vol.50 , pp. 399-414
    • Macdonald, W.W.1
  • 43
    • 0029879387 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mosquitoes, models and dengue
    • Lifson AR. Mosquitoes, models and dengue. Lancet 347:1201-1202 (1996).
    • (1996) Lancet , vol.347 , pp. 1201-1202
    • Lifson, A.R.1
  • 46
    • 0027086839 scopus 로고
    • A model of the transmission of dengue fever with an evaluation of the impact of ultra-low volume, ULV, insecticide applications on dengue epidemics
    • Newton EAC, Reiter P. A model of the transmission of dengue fever with an evaluation of the impact of ultra-low volume, ULV, insecticide applications on dengue epidemics. Am J Trop Med Hyg 47:709-720 (1992).
    • (1992) Am J Trop Med Hyg , vol.47 , pp. 709-720
    • Eac, N.1    Reiter, P.2
  • 48
    • 0030618006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis, and dengue to global warming
    • Martens WJM, Jetten TH, Focks DA. Sensitivity of malaria, schistosomiasis, and dengue to global warming. Clim Change 35:145-156 (1997).
    • (1997) Clim Change , vol.35 , pp. 145-156
    • Wjm, M.1    Jetten, T.H.2    Focks, D.A.3
  • 51
    • 1842313019 scopus 로고
    • The biology and bionomics of Aedes aegypti in the laboratory
    • Fay RW. The biology and bionomics of Aedes aegypti in the laboratory. Mosquito News 24:300-308 (1964).
    • (1964) Mosquito News , vol.24 , pp. 300-308
    • Fay, R.W.1
  • 52
    • 0017360586 scopus 로고
    • Reaction kinetics of poikilotherm development
    • Sharpe PJH, DeMichele DW. Reaction kinetics of poikilotherm development. J Theor Biol 64:649-670 (1977).
    • (1977) J Theor Biol , vol.64 , pp. 649-670
    • Sharpe, P.J.H.1    DeMichele, D.W.2
  • 54
    • 0015222078 scopus 로고
    • Frequency of blood feeding in the mosquito Aedes aegypti
    • McClelland GAH, Conway GR. Frequency of blood feeding in the mosquito Aedes aegypti. Nature 232:485-486 (1971).
    • (1971) Nature , vol.232 , pp. 485-486
    • McClelland, G.A.H.1    Conway, G.R.2
  • 55
    • 0015784849 scopus 로고
    • Field studies on the gonotrophic cycle of Aedes aegypti in Bangkok, Thailand
    • Pant CP, Yasuno M. Field studies on the gonotrophic cycle of Aedes aegypti in Bangkok, Thailand. J Med Entomol 10:219-223 (1973).
    • (1973) J Med Entomol , vol.10 , pp. 219-223
    • Pant, C.P.1    Yasuno, M.2
  • 56
    • 0005405238 scopus 로고
    • Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Cilicidae): observations on dispersal, survival, insemination, ovarian development and oviposition characteristics of a Florida population
    • Nayar JK. Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Cilicidae): observations on dispersal, survival, insemination, ovarian development and oviposition characteristics of a Florida population. J Fla Anti-Mosquito Assoc 52:24-40 (1981).
    • (1981) J Fla Anti-Mosquito Assoc , vol.52 , pp. 24-40
    • Nayar, J.K.1
  • 57
    • 0018589887 scopus 로고
    • Systems analysis of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti
    • Gilpin ME, McClelland GAH. Systems analysis of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti. Fortschr Zool 25:355-388 (1979).
    • (1979) Fortschr Zool , vol.25 , pp. 355-388
    • Gilpin, M.E.1    McClelland, G.A.H.2
  • 59
    • 0001200244 scopus 로고
    • The effect of density on the larvae of a mosquito and its influence on fecundity
    • Bar-Zeev M. The effect of density on the larvae of a mosquito and its influence on fecundity. Bull Res Council Israel 68:220-228 (1957).
    • (1957) Bull Res Council Israel , vol.68 , pp. 220-228
    • Bar-Zeev, M.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.