Computational models used to assess US tobacco control policies

Nicotine and Tobacco Research

Volumn 19, Issue 11, 2017, Pages 1257-1267

  Feirman, Shari P ^a   Glasser, Allison M ^a   Rose, Shyanika ^a   Niaura, Ray ^a,b,c   Abrams, David B ^a,b,c   Teplitskaya, Lyubov ^a,d   Villanti, Andrea C ^a,b  

^a American Legacy Foundation   (United States)

^b JOHNS HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^c GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

NICOTINE;

ADOLESCENT SMOKING; COST CONTROL; HUMAN; JUVENILE; MASS MEDIUM; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS; PROGRAM EVALUATION; REVIEW; SCHOOL HEALTH EDUCATION; SIMULATION; SMOKING BAN; SMOKING CESSATION; SMOKING CESSATION PROGRAM; SOCIAL MARKETING; SYSTEMATIC REVIEW; TAX; TOBACCO USE; UNITED STATES; GOVERNMENT REGULATION; LEGISLATION AND JURISPRUDENCE; SMOKING; THEORETICAL MODEL;

GOVERNMENT REGULATION; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; SMOKE-FREE POLICY; SMOKING; SMOKING CESSATION; TAXES; UNITED STATES;

EID: 85032834871     PISSN: 14622203     EISSN: 1469994X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/ntr/ntx017     Document Type: Review

References (88)

1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Early release of selected estimates based on data from the national health interview survey, 2014. 2014; www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/earlyrelease201506_08. pdf. Accessed August 5, 2015.
2. Jamal A, Agaku IT, O'Connor E, King BA, Kenemer JB, Neff L. Current cigarette smoking among adults-United States, 2005-2013. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2014;63(47):1108-1112.
3. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Cigarette smoking among adults-United States, 1997. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 1999;48(43):993-996.
4. Wilson LM, Avila Tang E, Chander G, et al. Impact of tobacco control interventions on smoking initiation, cessation, and prevalence: a systematic review. J Environ Public Health. 2012;2012:961724. doi:10.1155/2012/961724.
5. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The Health Consequences of Smoking-50 Years of Progress: A Report of the Surgeon General. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health; 2014.
6. Institute of Medicine. Ending the Tobacco Problem: A Blueprint for the Nation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; 2007.
7. Community Preventive Services Task Force. Guide to Community Preventive Services: Reducing Tobacco Use and Secondhand Smoke Exposure. www.Thecommunityguide.Org/tobacco/index.Html. Accessed April 7, 2015.
8. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Best Practices for Comprehensive Tobacco Control Programs. 2014. www.cdc.gov/tobacco/ stateandcommunity/best_practices/index.htm. Accessed August 7, 2015.
9. Abrams DB. Comprehensive smoking cessation: systems integration to save lives and money. In: Bonnie RJ, Stratton K, Wallace RB, eds. Ending the Tobacco Problem: A Blueprint for the Nation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; 2007.
10. Abrams DB, Graham AL, Levy DT, Mabry PL, Orleans CT. Boosting population quits through evidence-based cessation treatment and policy. Am J Prev Med. 2010;38(3 suppl):S351-S363.
11. Food and Drug Administration. FDA News Release: Candy and Fruit Flavored Cigarettes Now Illegal in United States; Step is First Under New Tobacco Law. 2009. www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/ PressAnnouncements/ucm183211.htm. Accessed July 28, 2015.
12. Food and Drug Administration. Guidance, Regulations & Compliance: Tobacco Control Act. 2015. www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/ GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/ucm246129.htm. Accessed July 28, 2015.
13. Li J, Newcombe R, Guiney H, Walton D. Impact on smoking behaviour of the New Zealand annual increase in tobacco tax: Data for the 5th and 6th year of increases. Nicotine Tob Res. 2016.
14. Vickerman KA, Zhang L, Malarcher A, Mowery P, Nash C. Cessation outcomes among quitline callers in three states during a National Tobacco Education Campaign. Prev Chronic Dis. 2015;12:E110. doi:10.5888/ pcd12.150024.
15. Huang LL, Thrasher JF, Abad EN, et al. The U.S. national tips from former smokers antismoking campaign: promoting awareness of smoking-related risks, cessation resources, and cessation behaviors. Health Educ Behav. 2015;42(4):480-486.
16. Patrick SW, Warner KE, Pordes E, Davis MM. Cigarette tax increase and infant mortality. Pediatrics. 2016;137(1). doi:10.1542/peds.2015-2901.
17. Pieroni L, Muzi G, Quercia A, et al. Estimating the smoking ban effects on smoking prevalence, quitting and cigarette consumption in a population study of apprentices in Italy. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2015;12(8):9523-9535.
18. Farley SM, Johns M. New York city flavoured tobacco product sales ban evaluation. Tob Control. 2017;26(1):78-84.
19. Congressional Budget Office. Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal Budget. 2012. Pub. No. 4036. www.cbo.gov/ sites/default/files/112th-congress-2011-2012/reports/06-13-Smoking_ Reduction.pdf. Accessed August 13, 2015.
20. Mabry PL, Marcus SE, Clark PI, Leischow SJ, Méndez D. Systems science: a revolution in public health policy research. Am J Public Health. 2010;100(7):1161-1163.
21. Gortmaker SL, Swinburn BA, Levy D, et al. Changing the future of obesity: science, policy, and action. Lancet. 2011;378(9793):838-847.
22. Luke DA, Stamatakis KA. Systems science methods in public health: dynamics, networks, and agents. Annu Rev Public Health. 2012;33:357-376. doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031210-101222.
23. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. FDA Center for Tobacco Products Research Interest Areas. https://prevention.nih.gov/tobaccoregulatory- science-program/research-priorities. Updated March 26, 2014. Accessed August 13, 2015.
24. Food and Drug Administration. A Public Workshop - Modeling and Statistical Methods for the Regulatory Assessment of Tobacco Products. 2013. www. fda.gov/downloads/TobaccoProducts/NewsEvents/UCM377493.pdf. Accessed January 14, 2015.
25. Mabry PL, Olster DH, Morgan GD, Abrams DB. Interdisciplinarity and systems science to improve population health: a view from the NIH Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research. Am J Prev Med. 2008;35(2 suppl):S211-S224.
26. Feirman SP, Donaldson E, Glasser AM, et al. Mathematical modeling in tobacco control research: initial results from a systematic review. Nicotine Tob Res. 2016;18(3):229-242.
27. Levy DT, Graham AL, Mabry PL, Abrams DB, Orleans CT. Modeling the impact of smoking-cessation treatment policies on quit rates. Am J Prev Med. 2010;38(3 suppl):S364-S372.
28. Feirman S, Donaldson E, Pearson J, et al. Mathematical modelling in tobacco control research: protocol for a systematic review. BMJ Open. 2015;5(4):e007269.
29. Eddy DM, Hollingworth W, Caro JJ, Tsevat J, McDonald KM, Wong JB; ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force. Model transparency and validation: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-7. Med Decis Making. 2012;32(5):733-743.
30. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI Inflation Calculator. 2017. www.bls.gov/ data/inflation_calculator.htm. Accessed January 5, 2015.
31. Higgins J, Green S. Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions Version 5.1.0 [updated March 2011]. The Cochrane Collaboration; 2011.
32. Moher D, Liberati A, Tetzlaff J, Altman DG; PRISMA Group. Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: the PRISMA statement. J Clin Epidemiol. 2009;62(10):1006-1012.
33. Ahmad S. The cost-effectiveness of raising the legal smoking age in California. Med Decis Making. 2005;25(3):330-340.
34. Ahmad S. Closing the youth access gap: the projected health benefits and cost savings of a national policy to raise the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States. Health Policy. 2005;75(1):74-84.
35. Ahmad S. Increasing excise taxes on cigarettes in California: a dynamic simulation of health and economic impacts. Prev Med. 2005;41(1):276-283.
36. Ahmad S, Billimek J. Estimating the health impacts of tobacco harm reduction policies: a simulation modeling approach. Risk Anal. 2005;25(4):801-812.
37. Ahmad S, Billimek J. Limiting youth access to tobacco: comparing the longterm health impacts of increasing cigarette excise taxes and raising the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States. Health Policy. 2007;80(3):378-391.
38. Ahmad S, Franz GA. Raising taxes to reduce smoking prevalence in the US: a simulation of the anticipated health and economic impacts. Public Health. 2008;122(1):3-10.
39. Cutler DM, Gruber J, Hartman RS, Landrum MB, Newhouse JP, Rosenthal MB. The economic impacts of the tobacco settlement. J Policy Anal Manage. 2002;21(1):1-19.
40. DiFranza JR, Peck RM, Radecki TE, Savageau JA. What is the potential cost-effectiveness of enforcing a prohibition on the sale of tobacco to minors? Prev Med. 2001;32(2):168-174.
41. Emery S, Ake CF, Navarro AM, Kaplan RM. Simulated effect of tobacco tax variation on Latino health in California. Am J Prev Med. 2001;21(4):278-283.
42. Emery S, Choi WS, Pierce JP. The social costs of tobacco advertising and promotions. Nicotine Tob Res. 1999;1(suppl 2):S83-S91.
43. Holtgrave DR, Wunderink KA, Vallone DM, Healton CG. Cost-utility analysis of the National truth campaign to prevent youth smoking. Am J Prev Med. 2009;36(5):385-388.
44. Kaplan RM, Ake CF, Emery SL, Navarro AM. Simulated effect of tobacco tax variation on population health in California. Am J Public Health. 2001;91(2):239-244.
45. Levy DT, Bales S, Lam NT, Nikolayev L. The role of public policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in Vietnam: results from the Vietnam tobacco policy simulation model. Soc Sci Med. 2006;62(7):1819-1830.
46. Levy DT, Cummings KM, Hyland A. A simulation of the effects of youth initiation policies on overall cigarette use. Am J Public Health. 2000;90(8):1311-1314.
47. Levy DT, Friend K. A computer simulation model of mass media interventions directed at tobacco use. Prev Med. 2001;32(3):284-294.
48. Levy DT, Friend K, Holder H, Carmona M. Effect of policies directed at youth access to smoking: results from the SimSmoke computer simulation model. Tob Control. 2001;10(2):108-116.
49. Levy DT, Friend K, Polishchuk E. Effect of clean indoor air laws on smokers: the clean air module of the SimSmoke computer simulation model. Tob Control. 2001;10(4):345-351.
50. Levy DT, Hyland A, Higbee C, Remer L, Compton C. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: results from the California tobacco policy simulation model. Health Policy. 2007;82(2):167-185.
51. Levy DT, Mabry PL, Graham AL, Orleans CT, Abrams DB. Reaching healthy people 2010 by 2013: a SimSmoke simulation. Am J Prev Med. 2010;38(3 suppl):S373-S381.
52. Levy DT, Mumford EA, Pesin B. Tobacco control policies and reductions in smoking rates and smoking-related deaths. Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res. 2003;3(4):457-468.
53. Levy DT, Nikolayev L, Mumford E. Recent trends in smoking and the role of public policies: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. Addiction. 2005;100(10):1526-1536.
54. Levy DT, Nikolayev L, Mumford E, Compton C. The Healthy People 2010 smoking prevalence and tobacco control objectives: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model (United States). Cancer Causes Control. 2005;16(4):359-371.
55. Levy DT, Pearson JL, Villanti AC, et al. Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States. Am J Public Health. 2011;101(7):1236-1240.
56. Levy DT, Ross H, Powell L, Bauer JE, Lee HR. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths caused by smoking in Arizona: results from the Arizona tobacco policy simulation model. J Public Health Manag Pract. 2007;13(1):59-67.
57. Levy DT, Tworek C, Hahn EJ, Davis RE. The Kentucky SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model: reaching Healthy People 2010 goals through policy change. South Med J. 2008;101(5):503-507.
58. Mejia AB, Ling PM, Glantz SA. Quantifying the effects of promoting smokeless tobacco as a harm reduction strategy in the USA. Tob Control. 2010;19(4):297-305.
59. Miller LS, Max W, Sung HY, Rice D, Zaretsky M. Evaluation of the economic impact of California's Tobacco Control Program: a dynamic model approach. Tob Control. 2010;19(suppl 1):i68-i76.
60. Ong MK, Glantz SA. Cardiovascular health and economic effects of smoke-free workplaces. Am J Med. 2004;117(1):32-38.
61. Ong MK, Glantz SA. Free nicotine replacement therapy programs vs implementing smoke-free workplaces: a cost-effectiveness comparison. Am J Public Health. 2005;95(6):969-975.
62. Rivara FP, Ebel BE, Garrison MM, Christakis DA, Wiehe SE, Levy DT. Prevention of smoking-related deaths in the United States. Am J Prev Med. 2004;27(2):118-125.
63. Secker-Walker RH, Holland RR, Lloyd CM, Pelkey D, Flynn BS. Cost effectiveness of a community based research project to help women quit smoking. Tob Control. 2005;14(1):37-42.
64. Secker-Walker RH, Worden JK, Holland RR, Flynn BS, Detsky AS. A mass media programme to prevent smoking among adolescents: costs and cost effectiveness. Tob Control. 1997;6(3):207-212.
65. Simpson SA, Nonnemaker JM. New York tobacco control program cessation assistance: costs, benefits, and effectiveness. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2013;10(3):1037-1047.
66. Swank RT, Becker DM, Jackson CA. The costs of employee smoking. A computer simulation of hospital nurses. Arch Intern Med. 1988;148(2):445-448.
67. Tengs TO, Ahmad S, Moore R, Gage E. Federal policy mandating safer cigarettes: a hypothetical simulation of the anticipated population health gains or losses. J Policy Anal Manage. 2004;23(4):857-872.
68. Tengs TO, Ahmad S, Savage JM, Moore R, Gage E. The AMA proposal to mandate nicotine reduction in cigarettes: a simulation of the population health impacts. Prev Med. 2005;40(2):170-180.
69. Tengs TO, Osgood ND, Chen LL. The cost-effectiveness of intensive national school-based anti-tobacco education: results from the tobacco policy model. Prev Med. 2001;33(6):558-570.
70. Villanti AC, Curry LE, Richardson A, Vallone DM, Holtgrave DR. Analysis of media campaign promoting smoking cessation suggests it was cost-effective in prompting quit attempts. Health Aff (Millwood). 2012;31(12):2708-2716.
71. Wang LY, Crossett LS, Lowry R, Sussman S, Dent CW. Cost-effectiveness of a school-based tobacco-use prevention program. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2001;155(9):1043-1050.
72. Warner KE, Fulton GA. The economic implications of tobacco product sales in a nontobacco state. JAMA. 1994;271(10):771-776.
73. Levy DT, Boyle RG, Abrams DB. The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model. Am J Prev Med. 2012;43(5 suppl 3):S179-S186.
74. Levy DT, Cummings KM, Hyland A. Increasing taxes as a strategy to reduce cigarette use and deaths: results of a simulation model. Prev Med. 2000;31(3):279-286.
75. Bala MM, Strzeszynski L, Topor-Madry R, Cahill K. Mass media interventions for smoking cessation in adults. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2013;6:CD004704.
76. Levy DT, Mabry PL, Graham AL, Orleans CT, Abrams DB. Exploring scenarios to dramatically reduce smoking prevalence: a simulation model of the three-part cessation process. Am J Public Health. 2010;100(7):1253-1259.
77. Levy DT, Bauer JE, Lee HR. Simulation modeling and tobacco control: creating more robust public health policies. Am J Public Health. 2006;96(3):494-498.
78. Levy DT, Chaloupka F, Gitchell J. The effects of tobacco control policies on smoking rates: a tobacco control scorecard. J Public Health Manag Pract. 2004;10(4):338-353.
79. National Cancer Institute. Chapter 5. How to Anticipate Change in Tobacco Control Systems. In Allan Best, Pamela I. Clark, Scott J. Leischow, William M. K. Trochim, ed. Greater Than the Sum: Systems Thinking in Tobacco Control. Tobacco Control Monograph No. Bethesda, MD: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute. NIH Pub. No. 06-6085; 2007. Greater than the Sum: Systems Thinking in Tobacco Control. 2007.
80. Caro JJ, Briggs AH, Siebert U, Kuntz KM; ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force. Modeling good research practices-overview: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-1. Med Decis Making. 2012;32(5):667-677.
81. Vugrin ED, Rostron BL, Verzi SJ, et al. Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm. PLoS One. 2015;10(3):e0121008.
82. Cobb CO, Villanti AC, Graham AL, et al. Markov modeling to estimate the population impact of emerging tobacco products: a proof-of-concept study. Tob Regul Sci. 2015;1(2):129-141.
83. Levy DT, Mumford EA, Cummings KM, et al. The potential impact of a low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco product on cigarette smoking in the United States: estimates of a panel of experts. Addict Behav. 2006;31(7):1190-1200.
84. Nutt DJ, Phillips LD, Balfour D, et al. Estimating the harms of nicotine- containing products using the MCDA approach. Eur Addict Res. 2014;20(5):218-225.
85. Abrams DB, Villanti AC, Warner KE. The Changing Landscape of Tobacco Control Current Status and Future Directions. The Health Consequences of Smoking-50 Years of Progress: A Report of the Surgeon General. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health; 2014.
86. Chaloupka FJ, Sweanor D, Warner KE. Differential taxes for differential risks-toward reduced harm from nicotine-yielding products. N Engl J Med. 2015;373(7):594-597.
87. Warner KE, Méndez D. Accuracy and importance of projections from a dynamic simulation model of smoking prevalence in the United States. Am J Public Health. 2012;102(11):2045-2048.
88. Fishman PA, Ebel BE, Garrison MM, Christakis DA, Wiehe SE, Rivara FP. Cigarette tax increase and media campaign cost of reducing smokingrelated deaths. Am J Prev Med. 2005;29(1):19-26.