Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction

Energy Economics

Volumn 64, Issue , 2017, Pages 542-551

  Luderer, Gunnar ^a   Pietzcker, Robert C ^a   Carrara, Samuel ^b,c   de Boer, Harmen Sytze ^d   Fujimori, Shinichiro ^e   Johnson, Nils ^f   Mima, Silvana ^g   Arent, Douglas ^h  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b FONDAZIONE ENI ENRICO MATTEI   (Italy)

^c Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)   (Italy)

^d PBL NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY   (Netherlands)

^e NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

^f INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

^g INRA University Pierre Mendes France   (France)

^h NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change mitigation; Electricity supply; Integrated assessment modeling; System integration challenges; Variable renewable energy; Wind and solar power

Indexed keywords

ENERGY POLICY; SOLAR ENERGY;

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION; ELECTRICITY SUPPLY; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS; SYSTEM INTEGRATION; VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGIES; WIND AND SOLAR POWER;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENERGY PLANNING; RESEARCH WORK; SOLAR POWER; WIND POWER;

EID: 85019983681     PISSN: 01409883     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.03.027     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Arvizu, D., Balaya, P., Cabeza, L.F., Hollands, K.G.T., Jäger-Waldau, A., Kondo, M., Konseibo, C., Meleshko, V., Stein, W., Tamaura, Y., Xu, H., Zilles, R., Direct solar energy. Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Seyboth, K., Matschoss, P., Kadner, S., Zwickel, T., Eickemeier, P., Hansen, G., Schlömer, S., von Stechow, C., (eds.) IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, 2011, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
2. Bauer, N., Brecha, R.J., Luderer, G., Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies. PNAS 109 (2012), 16805–16810, 10.1073/pnas.1201264109.
3. Berrill, P., Arvesen, A., Scholz, Y., Gils, H.C., Hertwich, E.G., Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe. Environ. Res. Lett., 11(1), 2016, 014012, 10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014012.
4. Blair, N., Jenkin, T., Milford, J., Short, W., Sullivan, P., Evans, D., Lieberman, E., Goldstein, G., Wright, E., Jayaraman, K.R., et al. Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership (REMAP): An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025. 2009, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO.
5. Bosetti, V., Carraro, C., Massetti, E., Tavoni, M., Climate Change Mitigation, Technological Innovation and Adaptation: A New Perspective on Climate Policy. 2014, Edward Elgar Publishing.
6. Bruckner, T., Bashmakov, I.A., Mulugetta, Y., Chum, H., de la Vega Navarro, A., Edmonds, J., Faaij, A., Fungtammasan, B., Garg, A., Hertwich, E., Honnery, D., Infield, D., Kainuma, M., Khennas, S., Kim, S., Nimir, H.B., Riahi, K., Strachan, N., Wiser, R., Zhang, X., Energy Systems. Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Farahani, E., Kadner, S., Seyboth, K., Adler, A., Baum, I., Brunner, S., Eickemeier, P., Kriemann, B., Savolainen, J., Schlömer, S., von Stechow, C., Zwickel, T., Minx, J.C., (eds.) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
7. Carrara, S., Marangoni, G., Including system integration of variable renewable energies in a constant elasticity of substitution framework: the case of the WITCH model. Energy Econ., 2017, 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.017 in this issue.
8. Clarke, L., Jiang, K., Akimoto, K., Babiker, M., Blanford, G., Fisher-Vanden, K., Hourcade, J.-C., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Löschel, A., McCollum, D., Paltsev, S., Rose, S., Shukla, P.R., Tavoni, M., van der Zwaan, B., van Vuuren, P., Assessing transformation pathways. Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Farahani, E., Kadner, S., Seyboth, K., Adler, A., Baum, I., Brunner, S., Eickemeier, P., Kriemann, B., Savolainen, J., Schlömer, S., von Stechow, C., Zwickel, T., Minx, J.C., (eds.) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
9. Cochran, J., Bird, L., Heeter, J., Arent, D.J., Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Electric Power Markets. 2012.
10. Dai, H., Fujimori, S., Silva Herran, D., Shiraki, H., Masui, T., Matsuoka, Y., The impacts on climate mitigation costs of considering curtailment and storage of variable renewable energy in a general equilibrium model. Energy Econ., 2017, 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.002 in this issue.
11. De Boer, H.-S., Van Vuuren, D.P., Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER, an aggregated energy system simulation model. Energy Econ., 2017 in this issue.
12. Denholm, P., Hand, M., Grid flexibility and storage required to achieve very high penetration of variable renewable electricity. Energ Policy 39 (2011), 1817–1830, 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.019.
13. Després, J., Mima, S., Kitous, A., Criqui, P., Hadjsaid, N., Noirot, I., Storage as a flexibility option in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources: a POLES-based analysis. Energy Econ., 2017, 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.006 in this issue.
14. Emmerling, J., Drouet, L., Reis, L.A., Bevione, M., Berger, L., Bosetti, V., Carrara, S., De Cian, E., De Maere D'Aertrycke, G., Longden, T., et al. The WITCH 2016 Model-documentation and Implementation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. 2016, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Nota di Lavoro 42.2016, Milan, Italy.
15. Eurek, K., Sullivan, P., Gleason, M., Hettinger, D., Heimiller, D., Lopez, A., An improved global wind resource estimate for integrated assessment models. Energy Econ., 2017, 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.015 in this issue.
16. Fischedick, M., Schaeffer, R., Adedoyin, A., Akai, M., Bruckner, T., Clarke, L., Krey, V., Savolainen, I., Teske, S., Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Wright, R., Mitigation Potential and Costs. Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Seyboth, K., Matschoss, P., Kadner, S., Zwickel, T., Eickemeier, P., Hansen, G., Schlömer, S., von Stechow, C., (eds.) IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, 2011, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
17. Fujimori, S., SSP3: AIM Implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Glob. Environ. Chang. 42 (2017), 268–283.
18. Fujimori, S., Masui, T., Matsuoka, Y., Gains from emission trading under multiple stabilization targets and technological constraints. Energy Econ. 48 (2015), 306–315, 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.12.011.
19. Haller, M., Ludig, S., Bauer, N., Decarbonization scenarios for the EU and MENA power system: considering spatial distribution and short term dynamics of renewable generation. Energ Policy 47 (2012), 282–290, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.069.
20. Hertwich, E.G., Gibon, T., Bouman, E.A., Arvesen, A., Suh, S., Heath, G.A., Bergesen, J.D., Ramirez, A., Vega, M.I., Shi, L., Integrated Life-Cycle Assessment of Electricity-Supply Scenarios Confirms Global Environmental Benefit of Low-Carbon Technologies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112:20 (2015), 6277–6282, 10.1073/pnas.1312753111.
21. Hirth, L., Ziegenhagen, I., Balancing power and variable renewables: three links. Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev. 50 (2015), 1035–1051, 10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.180.
22. IEA, Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2014, Energy Balances of OECD Countries. 2014, IEA.
23. IEA, Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy. 2014, OECD/IEA.
24. IEA, The Power of Transformation — Wind, Sun and the Economics of Flexible Power Systems. 2014.
25. IEA, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries 2015, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries. 2015, IEA.
26. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2016. 2016, International Energy Agency, Paris, France.
27. Johnson, N., Strubegger, M., McPherson, M., Parkinson, S.C., Krey, V., Sullivan, P., A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system. Energy Econ., 2017, 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.07.010 in this issue.
28. Kitous, A., Criqui, P., Bellevrat, E., Chateau, B., Transformation patterns of the worldwide energy system-scenarios for the century with the POLES model. Energy J. 31 (2010), 49–82.
29. Koelbl, B.S., van den Broek, M.A., Faaij, A.P.C., van Vuuren, D.P., Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise. Clim. Chang. 123 (2014), 461–476, 10.1007/s10584-013-1050-7.
30. Krey, V., Clarke, L., Role of renewable energy in climate mitigation: a synthesis of recent scenarios. Clim. Pol., 2011, 10.1080/14693062.2011.579308.
31. Krey, V., Luderer, G., Clarke, L., Kriegler, E., Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios. Clim. Chang. 123 (2014), 369–382, 10.1007/s10584-013-0947-5.
32. Kriegler, E., Weyant, J.P., Blanford, G.J., Krey, V., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Richels, R., Rose, S.K., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D.P., The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Clim. Chang. 123 (2014), 353–367, 10.1007/s10584-013-0953-7.
33. Kriegler, E., Petermann, N., Krey, V., Schwanitz, V.J., Luderer, G., Ashina, S., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Kitous, A., Méjean, A., Paroussos, L., Sano, F., Turton, H., Wilson, C., Van Vuuren, D.P., Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 90:Part A (2015), 45–61, 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020.
34. Krishnan, V., Ho, J., Hobbs, B.F., Liu, A.L., McCalley, J.D., Shahidehpour, M., Zheng, Q.P., Co-optimization of electricity transmission and generation resources for planning and policy analysis: review of concepts and modeling approaches. Energy Syst 7 (2016), 297–332, 10.1007/s12667-015-0158-4.
35. Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R.C., Bertram, C., Kriegler, E., Meinshausen, M., Edenhofer, O., Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 2013, 034033, 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034033.
36. Luderer, G., Krey, V., Calvin, K., Merrick, J., Mima, S., Pietzcker, R., Vliet, J.V., Wada, K., The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios. Clim. Chang. 123 (2014), 427–441, 10.1007/s10584-013-0924-z.
37. Mai, T., Mulcahy, D., Hand, M.M., Baldwin, S.F., Envisioning a renewable electricity future for the United States. Energy 65 (2014), 374–386, 10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.029.
38. Messner, S., Schrattenholzer, L., MESSAGE-MACRO: Linking an Energy Supply Model with a Macroeconomic Module and Solving It Iteratively. Energy 25:3 (2000), 267–282, 10.1016/S0360-5442(99)00063-8.
39. McJeon, H., Edmonds, J., Bauer, N., Clarke, L., Fisher, B., Flannery, B.P., Hilaire, J., Krey, V., Marangoni, G., Mi, R., Riahi, K., Rogner, H., Tavoni, M., Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas. Nature 514 (2014), 482–485, 10.1038/nature13837.
40. Pietzcker, R.C., Stetter, D., Manger, S., Luderer, G., Using the sun to decarbonize the power sector: the economic potential of photovoltaics and concentrating solar power. Appl. Energy 135 (2014), 704–720, 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.08.011.
41. Pietzcker, R.C., Ueckerdt, F., Carrara, S., de Boer, H.S., Després, J., Fujimori, S., Johnson, N., Kitous, A., Scholz, Y., Sullivan, P., Luderer, G., System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: a cross-model evaluation of new approaches. Energy Econ., 2017, 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.018 in this issue.
42. REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2015. 2015, REN21 Secretariat, Paris, France www.ren21.net.
43. Riahi, K., Kriegler, E., Johnson, N., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Eom, J., Schaeffer, M., Edmonds, J., Isaac, M., Krey, V., Longden, T., Luderer, G., Méjean, A., McCollum, D.L., Mima, S., Turton, H., van Vuuren, D.P., Wada, K., Bosetti, V., Capros, P., Criqui, P., Hamdi-Cherif, M., Kainuma, M., Edenhofer, O., Locked into Copenhagen pledges — implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 90:Part A (2015), 8–23, 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016.
44. Rose, S.K., Kriegler, E., Bibas, R., Calvin, K., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Weyant, J., Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management. Clim. Chang. 123:3–4 (2013), 477–493, 10.1007/s10584-013-0965-3.
45. Scholz, Y., Gils, H.C., Pietzcker, R., Application of a high-detail energy system model to derive power sector characteristics at high wind and solar shares. Energy Econ., 2017, 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.06.021 in this issue.
46. Ueckerdt, F., Brecha, R., Luderer, G., Analyzing major challenges of wind and solar variability in power systems. Renew. Energy 81 (2015), 1–10, 10.1016/j.renene.2015.03.002 (in this issue).
47. Ueckerdt, F., Pietzcker, R.C., Luderer, G., Giannousakis, A., Scholz, Y., Stetter, D., Decarbonizing global power supply under region-specific consideration of challenges and options of integrating variable renewables in the REMIND model. Energy Econ., 2016, 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.05.012 (in this issue).
48. van Ruijven, B.J., Weitzel, M., den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof, A.F., van Vuuren, D.P., Peterson, S., Narita, D., Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches. Energy Policy 46 (2012), 116–134, 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.042.
49. 2 in 2100. Energy Econ. 32 (2010), 1105–1120, 10.1016/j.eneco.2010.03.001.
50. Williams, J.H., DeBenedictis, A., Ghanadan, R., Mahone, A., Moore, J., Morrow, W.R., Price, S., Torn, M.S., The technology path to deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts by 2050: the pivotal role of electricity. Science 335 (2012), 53–59, 10.1126/science.1208365.
51. Wilson, C., Grubler, A., Bauer, N., Krey, V., Riahi, K., Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?. Clim. Chang. 118 (2013), 381–395, 10.1007/s10584-012-0618-y.
52. Wiser, R., Yang, Z., Hand, M., Hohmeyer, O., Infield, D., Jensen, P.H., Nikolaev, V., O'Malley, M., Sinden, G., Zervos, A., Wind energy. Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Seyboth, K., Matschoss, P., Kadner, S., Zwickel, T., Eickemeier, P., Hansen, G., Schlömer, S., von Stechow, C., (eds.) IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, 2011, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.