The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Geoscientific Model Development

Volumn 9, Issue 9, 2016, Pages 3461-3482

  O'Neill, Brian C ^a   Tebaldi, Claudia ^a   Van Vuuren, Detlef P ^b,c   Eyring, Veronika ^d   Friedlingstein, Pierre ^e   Hurtt, George ^f   Knutti, Reto ^g   Kriegler, Elmar ^h   Lamarque, Jean Francois ^a   Lowe, Jason ⁱ   Meehl, Gerald A ^a   Moss, Richard ^j   Riahi, Keywan ^k,l   Sanderson, Benjamin M ^a  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b PBL NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY   (Netherlands)

^c UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^d GERMAN AEROSPACE CENTER DLR   (Germany)

^e UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^f UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^g Land Climate Dynamics Group   (Switzerland)

^h POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

ⁱ MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^j PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^k INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

^l GRAZ UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Austria)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATE MODELING; EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN; FUTURE PROSPECT; GLOBAL WARMING; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; LAND USE CHANGE; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84990046271     PISSN: 1991959X     EISSN: 19919603     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Dottori, F., and Bianchi, A.: Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios, Global Environ. Chang., 35, 199-212, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.004, 2015.
2. Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, p. 224, 2002.
3. Arnell, N. W. and Lloyd-Hughes, B.: The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios, Climatic Change, 122, 127-140, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0984-4, 2014.
4. Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Emmerling, J., Fricko, O., Fujimori S., Hilaire, J., Eom, J., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Mouratiadou, I., Sytze de Boer, H., van den Berg, M., Carrara, S., Daioglou, V., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J. E., Gernaat, D., Havlik, P., Johnson, N., Klein, D., Kyle, P., Marangoni, G., Masui, T., Pietzcker, R. C., Strubegger, M., Wise, M., Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D.P .: Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector -Quantifying the Narratives, Global Environ. Chang., doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006, in press, 2016.
5. Biewald, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Otto, I., Brinckmann, N., Bodirsky, B., Weindl, I., Popp, A., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: The impacts of climate change on costs of food and people exposed to hunger at subnational scale, PIK Report 128, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany, 2015.
6. Boe, J. L., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100, Nat. Geosci., 2, 341-343, 2009.
7. Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K., and Zwiers, F.: The Decadal Climate Prediction Project, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-78, in review, 2016.
8. Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: On the Robustness of Emergent Constraints Used in Multimodel Climate Change Projections of Arctic Warming, J. Climate, 26, 669-678, 2013.
9. Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Krey, V., Richels, R., Rose, S., and Tavoni, M.: International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios, Energ. Econ., 31, S64-S81, 2009.
10. Clarke, L., Jiang, K., Akimoto, K., Babiker, M., Blanford, G., Fisher-Vanden, K., Hourcade, J.-C., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Loschel, A., McCollum, D., Paltsev, S., Rose, S., Shukla, P.R., Tavoni, M., van der Zwaan, B. C. C., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Assessing Transformation Pathways, in: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Farahani, E., Kadner, S., Seyboth, K., Adler, A., Baum, I., Brunner, S., Eickemeier, P., Kriemann, B., Savolainen, J., Schlomer, S., von Stechow, C., Zwickel, T., and Minx, J. C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2014.
11. Collins,W. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Schulz, M., Boucher, O., Eyring, V., Hegglin, M. I., Maycock, A., Myhre, G., Prather, M., Shindell, D., and Smith, S. J.: AerChemMIP: Quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-139, in review, 2016.
12. Cox, P. M., Pearson, D., Booth, B. B., Friedlingstein, P., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., and Luke, C. M.: Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability, Nature, 494, 341-344, 2013.
13. Dellink, R., Chateau, J., Lanzi, E., and Magne, B.: Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Global Environ. Chang., doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004, online first, 2015.
14. Dong, W., Liu, Z., Liao, H., Tang, Q., and Li, X.: New climate and socio-economic scenarios for assessing global human health challenges due to heat risk, Climatic Change, 4, 505-518, doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1372-8, 2015.
15. Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
16. Fasullo, J. T. and Trenberth, K. E.: A Less Cloudy Future: The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity, Science, 338, 792-794, 2012.
17. Fasullo, J. T., Sanderson, B. M., and Trenberth, K. E.: Recent Progress in Constraining Climate Sensitivity With Model Ensembles, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 268-275, 2015.
18. Gillett, N. P., Shiogama, H., Funke, B., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Matthes, K., Santer, B. D., Stone, D., and Tebaldi, C.: Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-74, in review, 2016.
19. Hall, A. and Qu, X.: Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03502, doi:10.1029/2005GL025127, 2006.
20. Hare, W., Lowe, J., Rogelj, J., Sawin, E., van Vuuren, D., Bosetti, V., Hanaoka, T., Kejun, J., Matthews, B., O'Neill, B. C., Ranger, N., and Riahi, K.: Which emission pathways are consistent with a 2°C or 1.5°C temperature limit?, in: The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord Pledges Sufficient to Limit Global Warming to 2°C or 1.5°C A preliminary assessment (UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya), 23-31, 2010.
21. Hejazi, M. I., Voisin, N., Liu, L., Bramer, L. M., Fortin, D. C., Hathaway, J. E., Huang, M., Kyle, P., Leung, L. R., Li, H.-Y., Liu, Y., Patel, P. L., Pulsipher, T. C., Rice, J. S., Tesfa, T. K., Vernon, C. R., and Zhou, Y.: 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci USA, 112, 10635-10640, doi:10.1073/pnas.1421675112, 2015.
22. Herger, N., Sanderson, B. M., and Knutti, R.: Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 3486-3494, doi:10.1002/2015GL063569, 2015.
23. Huber, M., Mahlstein, I.,Wild, M., Fasullo, J., and Knutti, R.: Constraints on climate sensitivity from radiation patterns in climate models, J. Climate, 24, 1034-1052, 2011.
24. IPCC: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Davidson, O. R. and Mertz, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2001.
25. IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp., 2007a.
26. IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 976 pp., 2007b.
27. IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Metz, B., Davidson, O. R., Bosch, P. R., Dave, R., and Meyer, L. A., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007c.
28. IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution ofWorking Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp., 2013.
29. IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132 pp., 2014a.
30. IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Barros, V. R., Field, C. B., Dokken, D. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 688 pp., 2014b.
31. IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Madruga, R., Sokona, Y., Farahani, E., Kadner, S., Seyboth, K., Adler, A., Baum, I., Brunner, S., Eickemeier, P., Kriemann, B., Savolainen, J., Schlomer, S., von Stechow, C., Zwickel, T., and Minx, J. C., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2014c.
32. Jiang, L. and O'Neill, B. C.: Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Global Environ. Chang., doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.008, online first, 2015.
33. Jones, C. D., Arora, V., Friedlingstein, P., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Dunne, J., Graven, H., Hoffman, F., Ilyina, T., John, J. G., Jung, M., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T., Randerson, J. T., and Zaehle, S.: C4MIP -The Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853-2880, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016.
34. KC, S. and Lutz, W.: The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100, Global Environ. Chang., doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004, online first, 2014.
35. Klein, S. A. and Hall, A.: Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 276-287, 2015.
36. Knutti, R. and Sedlacek, J.: Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections, Nature Climate Change, 3, 369-373, 2013.
37. Knutti, R. and Tomassini, L.: Constraints on the transient climate response from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L09701, doi:10.1029/2007GL032904, 2008.
38. Knutti, R., Meehl, G. A., Allen, M. R., and Stainforth, D. A.: Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature, J. Climate, 19, 4224-4233, 2006.
39. Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., Boucher, O., English, J. M., Irvine, P. J., Jones, A., Lawrence, M. G., MacCracken, M., Muri, H., Moore, J. C., Niemeier, U., Phipps, S. J., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Wang, H., and Watanabe, S.: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3379-3392, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, 2015.
40. Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B. C., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R. J., Moss, R. H., and Wilbanks, T.: The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: a new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways, Global Environ. Chang., 22, 807-822, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005, 2012.
41. Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Ebi, K., Kram, T., Riahi, K., Winkler, H., and van Vuuren, D.: A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions, Climatic Change, 122, 401-414, 2014a.
42. Kriegler, E., Weyant, J. P., Blanford, G. J., Krey, V., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Richels, R., Rose, S. K., Tavoni, M., and van Vuuren, D. P.: The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies, Climatic Change, 123, 353-367, 2014b.
43. Lawrence, D. M., Hurtt, G. C., Arneth, A., Brovkin, V., Calvin, K. V., Jones, A. D., Jones, C. D., Lawrence, P. J., de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Pongratz, J., Seneviratne, S. I., and Shevliakova, E.: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973-2998, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016.
44. Mahlstein, I. and Knutti, R.: September Arctic sea ice predicted to disappear near 2°C global warming above present, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D06104, doi:10.1029/2011JD016709, 2012.
45. Massonnet, F., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Bitz, C. M., Philippon-Berthier, G., Holland, M. M., and Barriat, P.-Y.: Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice, The Cryosphere, 6, 1383-1394, doi:10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012, 2012.
46. Matthes, K., Funke, B., Anderson, M. E., Barnard, L., Beer, J., Charbonneau, P., Clilverd, M. A., Dudok de Wit, T., Haberreiter, M., Hendry, A., Jackman, C. H., Kretschmar, M., Kruschke, T., Kunze, M., Langematz, U., Marsh, D. R., Maycock, A., Misios, S., Rodger, C. J., Scaife, A. A., Seppala, A., Shangguan, M., Sinnhuber, M., Tourpali, K., Usoskin, I., van de Kamp, M., Verronen, P. T., and Versick, S.: Solar Forcing for CMIP6 (v3.1), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-91, in review, 2016.
47. Meehl, G., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., McAvaney, B., Mitchell, J., Stouffer, R. and Taylor, K.: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1383-1394, 2007.
48. Meehl, G. A., Moss, R. H., Taylor, K. E., Eyring, V., Stouffer, R. J., Bony, S., and Stevens, B.: Climate Model Intercomparisons: Preparing for the Next Phase, Eos Trans., AGU, 95, 77, 2014.
49. Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., and Wigley, T. M. L.: Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 -Part 1: Model description and calibration, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417-1456, doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011, 2011a.
50. Meinshausen, M., Wigley, T. M. L., and Raper, S. C. B.: Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 -Part 2: Applications, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1457-1471, doi:10.5194/acp-11-1457-2011, 2011b.
51. Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D. P.: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change, 109, 213-241, 2011c.
52. Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D., Fraser, P., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P., Trudinger, C., Krummel, P., Beyerle, U., Cannadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., Enting, I., Law, R. M., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R. G., Reimann, S., Rubino, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Weiss, R.: Historical greenhouse gas concentrations, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-169, in review, 2016.
53. Moss, R., Babiker, M., Brinkman, S., Calvo, E., Carter, T., Edmonds, J., Elgizouli, I., Emori, S., Erda, L., Hibbard, K., Jones, R., Kainuma, M., Kelleher, J., Lamarque, J.-F., Manning, M., Matthews, B., Meehl, J., Meyer, L., Mitchell, J., Nakicenovic, N., O'Neill, B., Pichs, R., Riahi, K., Rose, S., Runci, P., Stouffer, R., van Vuuren, D.,Weyant, J.,Wilbanks, T., van Ypersele, J.-P., and Zurek, M. : Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies, Technical Summary. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 25 pp., 2008.
54. Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R.J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747-756, 2010.
55. Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Breon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang, J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock, A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H.: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
56. Nakicenovic, N., Davidson, O., Davis, G., Grubler, A., Kram,T., Lebre La Rovere, E., Metz, B., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Sankovshi, A., Shukla, P., Swart, R., Watson, R., and Dadi, Z.: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 599 pp., 2000.
57. Nowicki, S. M. J., Payne, T., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., and Shepherd, A.: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-105, in review, 2016.
58. O'Neill, B. C., Lawrence, D., and Larmarque, J.-F.: Developing climate model comparisons, Eos, 95, p. 462, 2014a.
59. O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways, Climatic Change, 122, 387-400, 2014b.
60. O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., and Solecki, W.: The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century, Global Environ. Chang., doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004, online first, 2015.
61. Pincus, R., Forster, P. M., and Stevens, B.: The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Experimental Protocol for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-88, in review, 2016.
62. Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Humpenoder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J., Gusti, M., Hasegawa, T., Kyle, P., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Valin, H., Waldhoff, S., Weindl, I., Wise, M., Kriegler, E., Lotze-Campen, H., Fricko, O., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Land use futures in the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways, Global Environ. Chang., accepted, 2016.
63. Riahi, K., Kriegler, E., Johnson, N., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Eom, J., Schaeffer, M., Edmonds, J., Isaac, M., Krey, V., Longden, T., Luderer, G., Mejean, A., McCollum, D. L., Mima, S., Turton, H., van Vuuren, D. P., Wada, K., Bosetti, V., Capros, P., Criqui, P., Hamdi-Cherif, M., Kainuma, M., and Edenhofer, O.: Locked into Copenhagen pledges -Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals, Technol. Forecast. Soc., 90, 8-23, 2015.
64. Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Crespo Cuaresma, J., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenoder, F., Aleluia Da Silva, L., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M., Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An Overview, Global Environ. Chang., doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009, online first, 2016.
65. Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., and Riahi, K.: Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 C, Nature Climate Change, 5, 519-527, doi:10.1038/nclimate2572, 2015.
66. Ruane, A. C., Teichmann, C., Arnell, N., Carter, T. R., Ebi, K. L., Frieler, K., Goodess, C. M., Hewitson, B., Horton, R., Kovats, R. S., Lotze, H. K., Mearns, L. O., Navarra, A., Ojima, D. S., Riahi, K., Rosenzweig, C., Themessl, M., and Vincent, K.: The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation, and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-71, in review, 2016.
67. Sherwood, S. C., Bony, S., and Dufresne, J. L.: Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing, Nature, 505, 37-42, 2014.
68. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
69. Tebaldi, C. and Arblaster, J. M.: Pattern scaling: its strengths and limitations and an update on the latest model simulations, Climatic Change, 122, 459-471, 2014.
70. Tebaldi, C., O'Neill, B. C., and Lamarque, J.-F.: Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 074001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/074001, 2015.
71. UNFCCC 2015 Paris Agreements: Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (decision 1/CP.17) Adoption of a protocol, another legal instrument, or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties, 2015.
72. van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Thomson, A., Riahi, K., Kainuma, M., Matsui, T., Hurtt, G. C., Lamarque, J.-F., Meinshausen, M., Smith, S., Granier, C., Rose, S. K., and Hibbard, K. A.: The Representative Concentration Pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5-31, 2011a.
73. van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., and Weyant, J.: A special issue on the RCPs, Climatic Change, 109, 1-4, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0157-y, 2011b.
74. van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Moss, R., Edmonds, J., Thomson, A., Nakicenovic, N., Kram, T., Berkhout, F., Swart, R., Janetos, A., Rose, S. K., and Arnell, N.: A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities, Global Environ. Chang., 22, 21-35, 2012.
75. van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B. C., Ebi, K. L., Riahi, K., Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R., and Winkler, H.: A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture, Climatic Change, 122, 373-86, 2014.
76. Wenzel, S., Cox, P. M., Eyring, V., and Friedlingstein, P.: Emergent constraints on climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in the CMIP5 Earth system models, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 119, 2013JG002591, doi:10.1002/2013JG002591, 2014.
77. Wenzel, S., Eyring, V., Gerber, E. P., and Karpechko, A. Y.: Constraining Future Summer Austral Jet Stream Positions in the CMIP5 Ensemble by Process-Oriented Multiple Diagnostic Regression, J. Climate, 29, 673-687, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0412.1, 2016.