The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways

Global Environmental Change

Volumn 22, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 807-822

  Kriegler, Elmar ^a   O'Neill, Brian C ^b   Hallegatte, Stephane ^c   Kram, Tom ^d   Lempert, Robert J ^e   Moss, Richard H ^f   Wilbanks, Thomas ^g  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^c MÉTÉO FRANCE   (France)

^d PBL NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY   (Netherlands)

^e RAND CORPORATION   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^g OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Climate change; Impact; Integrated assessment modeling; Socio economic scenario; Vulnerability

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; INTEGRATED APPROACH; MITIGATION; RADIATIVE FORCING; RESEARCH WORK; SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT; VULNERABILITY;

EID: 84866144450     PISSN: 09593780     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Alcamo J. The SAS approach: combining qualitative and quantitative knowledge in environmental scenarios. Environmental Futures: The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis 2009, 123-150. Elsevier, Amsterdam. J. Alcamo (Ed.).
2. Arnell N.W. Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2003, 14:31-52.
3. Arnell N.W., Livermore M.J.L., Kovats S., Levy P.E., Nicholls R., Parry M.L., Gaffin S.R. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines. Global Environmental Change 2004, 14:3-20.
4. Babiker M.H., Eckaus R.S. Unemployment effects of climate policy. Environmental Science and Policy 2007, 10(7-8):600-609.
5. Bengtsson M., Shen Y.J., Oki T. A SRES-based gridded global population dataset for 1990-2100. Population and Environment 2006, 28:113-131.
6. Berkhout, F., Hertin, J., Lorenzoni, I., Jordan, A., Turner, K., O'Riordan, T., Cobb, D., Ledoux, L., Tinch, R., Hulme, M., Palutikof, J., Skea, J., 1999. Non-climate futures study: socio-economic futures scenarios for climate impact assessment. Report produced for the United Kingdom Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions, Science and Technology Policy Research (SPRU). University of Sussex, Brighton, UK, 81 pp.
7. Carter T., et al. New assessment methods and the characterization of future conditions. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability 2007, 133-171. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. M. Parry (Ed.).
8. Clarke L., Edmonds J., Krey V., Richels R., Rose S., Tavoni M. International climate policy architectures: overview of the EMF 22 international scenarios. Energy Economics 2010, 31(Suppl. 2):64-81.
9. Endogenous technological change and the economics of atmospheric stabilisation. The Energy Journal 2006, 27. International Association of Energy Economics, USA (special issue).
10. The economics of low stabilization. The Energy Journal 2010, 31. International Association of Energy Economics, USA (special issue).
11. Fisher G., Shah M., Tubiello F.N., van Velhuizen H. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 2005, 360:2067-2083.
12. Gaffin S.R., Rosenzweig C., Xiaoshi X., Yetman G. Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). Global Environmental Change 2004, 14:105-123.
13. Gallopin, G., Hammond, A., Raskin, P., Swart, R., 1997. Branch points: global scenarios and human choice. PoleStar Series Report, 7. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm.
14. Garb Y., Pulver S., VanDeveer S. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling. Environmental Research Letters 2008, 3:045015.
15. Groves D.G., Lempert R.J. A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2007, 17:73-85.
16. Grübler A., Chirkov V., Goujon A., Kolp P., O'Neill B., Prommer I., Riahi K., Scherbov S., Slentoe E. Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2006, 10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.023.
17. Guivarch C., Crassous R., Sassi O., Hallegatte S. The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market imperfections. Climate Policy 2011, 11:768-788.
18. Hallegatte S., Henriet F., Corfee-Morlot J. The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework. Climatic Change 2011, 104(1):51-87.
19. Hanson S., Nicholls R., Ranger N., Hallegatte S., Corfee-Morlot J., Herweijer C., Chateau J. A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes. Climatic Change 2011, 104(1):89-111.
20. IPCC Summary for policymakers. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2012, 1-19. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK/New York, NY, USA. C.B. Field, V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, P.M. Midgley (Eds.).
21. Klein R.J.T., Huq S., Denton F., Downing T.E., Richels R.G., Robinson J.B., Toth F.L. Interrelationships between adaptation and mitigation. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 745-777. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
22. Kok, K., Rothman, D.S., 2003. Mediterranean scenarios. First Draft, MedAction Deliverable 3, Report number I03-E001. ICIS, Maastricht. Available online at: http://www.icis.unimaas.nl/medaction/download.html.
23. Kunreuther H., Slovic P. Economics, psychology, and protective behavior. The American Economic Review 1978, 68(2):64-69.
24. Kunreuther H., Ginsberg R., Miller L., Sagi P., Slovic P., Borkan B., Katz N. Disaster Insurance Protection: Public Policy Lessons 1978, John Wiley and Sons, New York.
25. Lempert R.J., Groves D.G., Popper S.W., Bankes S.C. A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios. Management Science 2006, 52(4):514-528.
26. Lipsey G., Lancaster K. The general theory of second best. The Review of Economic Studies 1956, 24:11-32.
27. Lorenzoni I., Jordan A., Hulme M., Turner R.K., O'Riordan T. A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: part I: integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2000, 10:57-68.
28. Mathy S., Guivarch C. Climate policies in a second-best world - a case study on India. Energy Policy 2010, 38(3):1519-1528.
29. Michel-Kerjan E. Disasters and public policy: can market lessons help address government failures. Proceedings of the 99th National Tax Association Conference 2008.
30. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystems and Human Well-being. Volume 2: Scenarios 2005, Island Press, Washington, DC.
31. Morgan M.G., Keith D.W. Improving the way we think about projecting future energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide. Climatic Change 2008, 90:189-215.
32. Moss R.H., Babiker M., Brinkman S., Calvo E., Carter T., Edmonds J., Elgizouli I., Emori S., Erda L., Hibbard K., Jones R., Kainuma M., Kelleher J., Lamarque J.F., Manning M., Matthews B., Meehl J., Meyer L., Mitchell J., Nakićenović N., O'Neill B., Pichs R., Riahi K., Rose S., Runci P., Stouffer R., van Vuuren D., Weyant J., Wilbanks T., van Ypersele J.P., Zurek M. Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies 2008, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.
33. Moss R.H., Edmonds J.A., Hibbard K.A., Manning M.R., Rose S.K., van Vuuren D.P., Timothy R., Carter T.R., Emori S., Kainuma M., Kram T., Meehl G.A., Mitchell J.F.B., Nakićenović N., Riahi K., Smith S.J., Stouffer R.J., Thomson A.M., Weyant J.P., Wilbanks T.W. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 2010, 463:747-756.
34. Nakićenović N., Alcamo J., Davis G., de Vries B., Fenham J., Gaffin S., Gregory K., Grübler A., Jung T.Y., Kram T., La Rovere E.L., Michaelis L., Mori S., Morita T., Pepper W., Pitcher H., Price L., Riahi K., Roehrl A., Rogner H.-H., Sankovski A., Schlesinger M., Shukla P., Smith S., Swart R., van Rooijen S., Victor N., Dadi Z. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios 2000, Cambridge University Press, New York.
35. Nakićenović N., Grübler A. Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate. Nature 2001, 412:15.
36. National Research Council Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia 2010, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
37. National Research Council Board on Sustainable Development Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability 1999, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
38. Nicholls R.J. Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2003, 14:69-86.
39. Nordhaus W.D. A Question of Balance 2007, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
40. Nordhaus W.D. Managing the Global Commons. The Economics of Climate Change 1994, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
41. Nordhaus W.D., Boyer J. Warming the World 2000, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
42. O'Neill B.C., Pulver S., VanDeveer S., Garb Y. Where next with global environmental scenarios?. Environmental Research Letters 2008, 3:045012.
43. Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J., Hanson, C.E. (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
44. Parry M.L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M., Fischer G. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2004, 14:53-67.
45. Parson E.A. Useful global change scenarios: current issues and challenges. Environmental Research Letters 2008, 3:045016.
46. Raskin P., et al. Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead 2002, Tellus Institute, Boston, MA.
47. Raskin P., Electris C., Rosen R. The century ahead: searching for sustainability. Sustainability 2010, 2(8):2626-2651.
48. Rosenzweig C., Wilbanks T. The state of climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation research: strengthening knowledge base and community. Climatic Change 2010, 100:103-106.
49. Rounsevell M.D.A., Reginster I., Araújo M.B., Carter T.R., Dendoncker N., Ewert F., House J.I., Kankaanpää S., Leemans R., Metzger M.J., Schmit C., Smith P., Tuck G. A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 2006, 114:57-68.
50. Rozenberg, J., Guivarch, C., Lempert, R., Hallegatte, S., 2011. Building SSPs: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future mitigative and adaptative capacity. Presented at the Workshop on the Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research, Boulder, November 2-5, 2011. http://www.isp.ucar.edu/agenda.
51. Schneider S.H. What is 'dangerous' climate change?. Nature 2001, 411:17-19.
52. TERI, November 2009. Impacts of relatively severe climate change in North India. Project Report No. 2008GW09. The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi.
53. Theobald D.M. Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecology and Society 2005, 10(1):32.
54. Toth, F., Wilbanks, T., September 2004. Considering the technical and socio-economic assumptions embedded in the SRES scenario families. IPCC Working Group II Guidance Papers, Fourth Assessment Report.
55. Tversky A., Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases, science. New Series 1974, 185(4157):1124-1131.
56. Tversky A., Shafir E. Choice under conflict: the dynamics of deferred decision. Psychological Science 1992, 3(6):358-361.
57. United Nations Development Programme Millennium Development Goals 2010, http://www.undp.org/mdg/basics.shtml.
58. USGCRP Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States 2010, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
59. van Vuuren D.P., Riahi K., Moss R., Edmonds J., Thomson A., Nakićenović N., Kram T., Berkhout F., Swart R., Janetos A., Rose S.K., Arnell A. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change 2012, 22(1):21-35.
60. van Vuuren D.P., Smith S.J., Riahi K., et al. Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change 2010, 1(3):393-404.
61. Weyant J.P., de la Chesnaye C., Blanford G.J. Multi-greenhouse gas mitigation and climate policy. The Energy Journal 2006, 27. International Association of Energy Economics, USA (special issue 3).
62. Wilbanks T., et al. Toward an integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation: some preliminary findings. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 2007, 12(June (5)):713-725. (special issue).
63. Wilbanks T., Sathaye J. Integrating mitigation and adaptation as responses to climate change: a synthesis. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 2007, 12(June (5)):957-962. (special issue).
64. World Bank World Development Report: Development and Climate Change 2010, The World Bank, Washington, DC.
65. Yohe G. Mitigative capacity: the mirror image of adaptive capacity on the emissions side. Climatic Change 2001, 49:247-262.