21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 112, Issue 34, 2015, Pages 10635-10640

  Hejazi, Mohamad I ^a   Voisin, Nathalie ^b   Liu, Lu ^a   Bramer, Lisa M ^b   Fortin, Daniel C ^b   Hathaway, John E ^b   Huang, Maoyi ^b   Kyle, Page ^a   Leung, L Ruby ^b   Li, Hong Yi ^b   Liu, Ying ^b   Patel, Pralit L ^a   Pulsipher, Trenton C ^b   Rice, Jennie S ^b   Tesfa, Teklu K ^b   Vernon, Chris R ^b   Zhou, Yuyu ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^b PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Earth system model; Integrated assessment; Mitigation; Water deficit

Indexed keywords

WATER; FRESH WATER; GROUND WATER;

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENERGY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SOCIOECONOMICS; UNITED STATES; WATER DEFICIT; WATER STRESS; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FORECASTING; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; POLICY; PROCEDURES; THEORETICAL MODEL; WATER CYCLE; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; FORECASTING; FRESH WATER; GLOBAL WARMING; GROUNDWATER; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PUBLIC POLICY; SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS; UNITED STATES; WATER CYCLE; WATER SUPPLY;

EID: 84940506220     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1421675112     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Arnell N, Van Vuuren D, Isaac M (2011) The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. Glob Environ Change 21(2): 592-603.
2. Akimoto K, et al. (2012) Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization. Nat Resour Forum 36(4):231-244.
3. Hanasaki N, et al. (2013) A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Part 2 Water availability and scarcity. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17: 2393-2413.
4. Hejazi MI, et al. (2014) Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18: 2859-2883.
5. Blanc E, et al. (2014) Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change. Earths Futur 2(4):197-224.
6. Huntington T (2006) Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis. J Hydrol (Amst) 319:83-95.
7. Wentz FJ, Ricciardulli L, Hilburn K, Mears C (2007) How much more rain will global warming bring? Science 317(5835):233-235.
8. Milly PC, Dunne KA, Vecchia AV (2005) Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438(7066):347-350.
9. Milly PC, Wetherald RT, Dunne KA, Delworth TL (2002) Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature 415(6871):514-517.
10. Sherwood S, Fu Q (2014) Climate change. A drier future? Science 343(6172):737-739.
11. Oki T, Kanae S (2006) Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science 313(5790):1068-1072.
12. Vörösmarty CJ, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers RB (2000) Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289(5477):284-288.
13. Voisin N, et al. (2013) One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: Evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:4555-4575.
14. Van Vuuren DP, et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Clim Change 109(1-2):5-31.
15. Riahi K, et al. (2011) RCP 8.5-A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Change 109(1-2):33-57.
16. Thomson AM, et al. (2011) RCP4.5: A pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Change 109(1-2):77-94.
17. Gerbens-Leenes P, Van Lienden A, Hoekstra A, Van Der Meer T (2012) Biofuel scenarios in a water perspective: The global blue and green water footprint of road transport in 2030. Glob Environ Change 22(3):764-775.
18. Jacobson M (2009) Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security. Energy Environ Sci 2(2):148-173.
19. King C, Webber M, Duncan I (2010) The water needs for LDV transportation in the United States. Energy Policy 38(2):1157-1167.
20. Li H-Y, et al. (2013) A physically based runoff routing model for land surface and Earth system models. J Hydrometeorol 14(3):808-828.
21. Voisin N, et al. (2013) On an improved sub-regional water resources management representation for integration into earth system models. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17: 3605-3622.
22. Gao Y, et al. (2014) Robust spring drying in the southwestern US and seasonal migration of wet/dry patterns in a warmer climate. Geophys Res Lett 41(5):1745-1751.
23. O'Neill BC, et al. (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Clim Change 122(3):387-400.
24. Rose SK, et al. (2014) Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management. Clim Change 123(3-4):477-493.
25. Popp A, et al. (2014) Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: Model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options. Clim Change 123(3-4):495-509.
26. Hibbard K, Janetos A (2013) The regional nature of global challenges: A need and strategy for integrated regional modeling. Clim Change 118(3-4):565-577.
27. Kraucunas IP, et al. (2014) Investigating the nexus of climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA). Clim Change 129(3-4):573-588.
28. Leung L, Kuo Y-H, Tribbia J (2006) Research needs and directions of regional climate modeling using WRF and CCSM. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87(12):1747-1751.
29. Ke Y, et al. (2012) Development of High Resolution Land Surface Parameters for the Community Land Model. Geoscientific Model Development 5(6):1341-1362.
30. Oleson KW, et al. (2010) Technical Description of version 4.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM). NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-478+STR (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO), 257 pp.
31. Wood A, Leung L, Sridhar V, Lettenmaier D (2004) Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Clim Change 62(1-3):189-216.
32. Li et al. (2014) Evaluating global streamflow simulations by a physically-based routing model coupled with the Community Land Model. J Hydrometeorol 16(2):948-971.
33. Liu L, et al. (2015) Water demands for electricity generation in the US: Modeling different scenarios for the water-energy nexus. Technol Forecast Soc Change 94: 318-334.
34. Zhou Y, et al. (2014) Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework. Appl Energy 113:1077-1088.
35. Edmonds J, Reilly J (1983) A long-term, global, energy-economic model of carbon dioxide release from fossil fuel use. Energy Econ 5(2):74-88.
36. Liu J, et al. (2007) GEPIC-modeling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale. Agric Syst 94(2):478-493.
37. Bentsen M, et al. (2013) The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M-Part 1: Description and basic evaluation. Geosci. Model Dev. 6:687-720.
38. Kyle P, Müller C, Calvin K, Thomson A (2014) Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts. Earths Futur 2(2):83-98.
39. Bruinsma J (2009) The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how Much Do Land, Water, and Crop Yields Need To Increase by 2050? Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050? (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome).
40. Hejazi MI, et al. (2014) Long-term global water use projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework. Technol Forecast Soc Change 81:205-226.
41. Averyt K, et al. (2011) Freshwater Use by U.S. Power Plants: Electricity's Thirst for a Precious Resource (Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA).