Mapping conservation priorities and connectivity pathways under climate change for tropical ecosystems

Climatic Change

Volumn 141, Issue 1, 2017, Pages 77-92

  Fung, Emily ^a   Imbach, Pablo ^a   Corrales, Lenin ^a,b   Vilchez, Sergio ^a   Zamora, Nelson ^c   Argotty, Freddy ^a   Hannah, Lee ^d   Ramos, Zayra ^a,e  

^a CATIE   (Costa Rica)

^b UNIVERSIDAD DE COSTA RICA   (Costa Rica)

^c National Biodiversity Inst (INBio)   (Costa Rica)

^d National Biodiversity Institute ^*  (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CONSERVATION; ECOLOGY; ECOSYSTEMS; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; GLOBAL WARMING; LAND USE; NETWORK SECURITY; TROPICS;

BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION; CONSERVATION PRIORITIES; PARTICIPATORY PLANNING; PLANNING FRAMEWORK; REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE; TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY; THREE-STEP STRATEGIES; TROPICAL ECOSYSTEMS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONNECTIVITY; CONSERVATION PLANNING; CONSERVATION STATUS; GLOBAL WARMING; LAND USE CHANGE; PROTECTED AREA; TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT; TROPICAL REGION;

COSTA RICA;

EID: 84988973086     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: 15731480     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1789-8     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Ackerly DD, Loarie SR, Cornwell WK, et al. (2010) The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Divers Distrib 16:476–487. doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00654.x
2. Aide TM, Rivera E (1998) Geographic patterns of genetic diversity in Poulsena armata (Moraceae): implications for teh theory of Pleistocene refugia and the importance of riparian forest. J Biogeogr 25:695–705
3. Araújo MB, Cabeza M, Thuiller W, et al. (2004) Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Glob Chang Biol 10:1618–1626. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00828.x
4. Arias E, Chacón O, Induni G, et al. (2008) Identificación de vacíos en la representatividad de ecosistemas terrestres. Recur Nat y Ambient 54:21–27
5. Arponen A, Moilanen A, Ferrier S (2008) A successful community-level strategy for conservation prioritization. J Appl Ecol 45:1436–1445. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01513.x
6. Ashcroft MB (2010) Identifying refugia from climate change. J Biogeogr 37:1407–1413. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02300.x
7. Ball I, Possingham H, Watts M (2009) Marxan and relatives: software for spatial conservation prioritization. In: Spatial conservation prioritization: quatitative methods & computational tools. Oxford University Press, Oxford
8. Beier P, Hunter ML, Anderson M (2015) Special section: conserving nature’s stage. Conserv Biol 29:613–617. doi:10.1111/cobi.12511
9. Bellard C, Bertelsmeier C, Leadley P, et al. (2012) Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecol Lett 15:365–377. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x
10. Bertrand R, Lenoir J, Piedallu C, et al. (2011) Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests. Nature 479:517–520. doi:10.1038/nature10548
11. Breshears DD, Huxman TE, Adams HD, et al. (2008) Vegetation synchronously leans upslope as climate warms. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105:11591–11592. doi:10.1073/pnas.0806579105
12. Bull JC, Pickup NJ, Pickett B, et al. (2007) Metapopulation extinction risk is increased by environmental stochasticity and assemblage complexity. Proc Biol Sci 274:87–96. doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.3691
13. Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Richardson AJ, et al. (2014) Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507:492–506. doi:10.1038/nature12976
14. Carnaval ACOQ, Hickerson MJ, Haddad CFB, et al. (2009) Stability predicts genetic diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot. Science 323:785–789. doi:10.1126/science.1166955
15. Cowling RM, Pressey RL, Sims-Castley R, et al. (2003) The expert or the algorithm?- comparison of priority conservation areas in the Cape Floristic region identified by park managers and reserve selection software. Biol Conserv 112:147–167. doi:10.1016/S0006-3207(02)00397-X
16. de la Nación E (2013) Vigésimo Informe Estado de la Nación en Desarrollo Humano Sostenible. San José, CR
17. DeClerck FAJ, Chazdon R, Holl KD, et al. (2010) Biodiversity conservation in human-modified landscapes of Mesoamerica: past, present and future. Biol Conserv 143:2301–2313. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.03.026
18. Dobrowski SZ (2011) A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate. Glob Chang Biol 17:1022–1035. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02263.x
19. Dobrowski SZ, Abatzoglou J, Swanson AK, et al. (2013) The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the twentieth century. Glob Chang Biol 19:241–251. doi:10.1111/gcb.12026
20. Game ET, Lipsett-Moore G, Saxon E, et al. (2011) Incorporating climate change adaptation into national conservation assessments. Glob Chang Biol 17:3150–3160. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02457.x
21. García R (1996) Propuesta técnica de ordenamiento territorial con fines de conservación de biodiversidad. Costa Rica. Costa Rica, Informe de País
22. Gómez L (1986) Mapa de lo macrotipos de vegetación de Costa Rica. Serie de 10 mapas. Escala 1:250000. EUNED, San José, CR
23. Haffer J (1969) Speciation in Amazonian forest birds. Science 165:131–137. doi:10.1126/science.165.3889.131
24. Hammel BE, Grayum MH, Herrera C, Zamora N (2003) Manual of plants of Costa Rica, Volume II: gymnosperms and monocotyledons (Agavaceae-Musaceae). Missouri Botanical Garden Press, St. Louis
25. Hampe A, Petit RJ (2005) Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters. Ecol Lett 8:461–467. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00739.x
26. Hannah L, Midgley GF, Lovejoy T, et al. (2002) Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate. Conserv Biol 16:264–268. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.00465.x
27. Hannah L, Midgley GF, Andelman S, et al. (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. Front Ecol Environ 5:131–138. doi:10.1890/1540-9295(2007)5[131:PANIAC]2.0.CO;2
28. Hannah L, Flint L, Syphard AD, et al. (2014) Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia. Trends Ecol Evol 29:390–397. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.04.006
29. Hansen MC, Potapov PV, Moore R, et al. (2013) High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science 342:850–853
30. Heller NE, Zavaleta ES (2009) Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol Conserv 142:14–32. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.006
31. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, et al. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965–1978. doi:10.1002/joc.1276
32. Imbach P, Molina L, Locatelli B, et al. (2012) Modeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of Mesoamerica under climate change scenarios*. J Hydrometeorol 13:665–680. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-023.1
33. Imbach P, Locatelli B, Molina LG, et al. (2013) Climate change and plant dispersal along corridors in fragmented landscapes of Mesoamerica. Ecol Evol 3:2917–2932. doi:10.1002/ece3.672
34. IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Nauels JA, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) The physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. University Press, Cambridge
35. Jarvis A, Reuter H, Nelson A, Guevara E (2008) Hole-filled seamless SRTM data V4. http://www.cgiar-csi.org/data/srtm-90m-digital-elevation-database-v4-1. Accessed 12 Apr 2014
36. Jenness J (2006) Topographic Position Index (tpi_jen.avx) extension for ArcView 3.x, v. 1.3a. Jenness Enterprises. Available at: http://www.jennessent.com/arcview/tpi.htm
37. Keppel G, Van Niel KP, Wardell-Johnson GW, et al. (2012) Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 21:393–404. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00686.x
38. Khatun K, Imbach P, Zamora J (2013) An assessment of climate change impacts on the tropical forests of Central America using the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) land classification system. iForest - Biogeosciences For 6:183–189
39. Langhammer PF, Bakarr MI, Bennun LA, et al. (2007) Identification and gap analysis of key biodiversity areas: targets for comprehensive protected area systems. Gland, Switzerland
40. Liaw A, Wiener M (2002) Classification and regression by random forest. R News 2:18–22. doi:10.1177/154405910408300516
41. Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, et al. (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:1052–1055. doi:10.1038/nature08649
42. MEA (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment) (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC
43. Mesoamericano PCB (2007) Informe final proyecto establecimiento de un Programa para la consolidación del Corredor Biológico Mesoamericano. Managua, Nicaragua
44. Myers N, Fonseca GAB, Mittermeier RA, et al. (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403:853–858. doi:10.1038/35002501
45. Payton IJ, Fenner M, Lee WG (2002) Keystone species: the concept and its relevance for conservation management in New Zealand. Sci Conserv 203:5–29. doi:10.1186/1472-6785-4-10
46. Phillips SJ, Williams P, Midgley G, Archer A (2008) Optimizing dispersal corridors for the cape proteaceae using network flow. Ecol Appl 18:1200–1211. doi:10.1890/07-0507.1
47. Plattner G-K (2009) Climate change: terrestrial ecosystem inertia. Nat Geosci 2:467–468
48. Powell GVN, Barborak J, Rodriguez SM (2000) Assessing representativeness of protected natural areas in Costa Rica for conserving biodiversity: a preliminary gap analysis. Biol Conserv 93:35–41. doi:10.1016/S0006-3207(99)00115-9
49. Puschendorf R, Carnaval AC, Vanderwal J, et al. (2009) Distribution models for the amphibian chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Costa Rica: proposing climatic refuges as a conservation tool. Divers Distrib 15:401–408. doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00548.x
50. Rouget M, Cowling RM, Lombard AT, et al. (2006) Designing large-scale conservation corridors for pattern and process. Conserv Biol 20:549–561. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00297.x
51. Rull V (2009) Microrefugia. J Biogeogr 36:481–484. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.02023.x
52. Sala OE, Chapin FS, Armesto JJ, et al. (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287:1770–1774. doi:10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
53. Sanchez-Azofeifa G, Daily G, Pfaff A, Busch C (2003) Integrity and isolation of Costa Rica’s national parks and biological reserves:examining the dynamics of land-cover change. Biol Conserv 109:123–135
54. Saxon E (2008) Noah’s parks: a partial antidote to the Anthropocene extinction event. Biodiversity 9:5–10. doi:10.1080/14888386.2008.9712901
55. SINAC (Sistema Nacional de Áreas de Conservación Costa Rica) (2007) GRUAS II: Propuesta de Ordenamiento Territorial para la conservación de la biodiversidad de Costa Rica, vol 1. SINAC, San José
56. SINAC (2009) Corredores Biológicos [mapa]. 1: 50 000. San José: Sistema Nacional de Áreas de Conservación. Shapefile.
57. SINAC, FONAFIFO (2014) Tipos de bosque de Costa Rica, Inventario Nacional Forestal (database). Sistema Nacional de Áreas de Conservación, Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía y Fondo Nacional de Financiamiento Forestal, San José
58. USGS (1987) Geology and Resource Assessment of Costa Rica [map]. 1:500,000. USGS: U.S. Geological Survey
59. VanDerwal J, Shoo LP, Williams SE (2009) New approaches to understanding late quaternary climate fluctuations and refugial dynamics in Australian wet tropical rain forests. J Biogeogr 36:291–301. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.01993.x
60. Watts ME, Ball IR, Stewart RS, et al. (2009) Marxan with zones: software for optimal conservation based land- and sea-use zoning. Environ Model Softw 24:1513–1521. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.06.005
61. Weltzin JF, Loik ME, Schwinning S, et al. (2003) Assessing the response of terrestrial ecosystems to potential changes in precipitation. Bioscience 53:941. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0941:ATROTE]2.0.CO;2
62. Yang LH, Rudolf VHW (2010) Phenology, ontogeny and the effects of climate change on the timing of species interactions. Ecol Lett 13:1–10. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01402.x
63. Zamora N (2008) Unidades Fitogeográficas para la clasificación de ecosistemas terrestres en Costa Rica. Recur Nat y Ambient 54:14–20