Metapopulation extinction risk is increased by environmental stochasticity and assemblage complexity

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 274, Issue 1606, 2007, Pages 87-96

  Bull, James C ^a,b   Pickup, Nicola J ^a,c   Pickett, Brian ^a   Hassell, Michael P ^a   Bonsall, Michael B ^a,c  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b INSTITUTE OF ZOOLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Apparent competition; Environmental stochasticity; Extinction risk; Host parasitoid; Microcosm; Regulatory process

Indexed keywords

APPARENT COMPETITION; COMPLEXITY; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; CONSUMER-RESOURCE INTERACTION; DEMOGRAPHIC METHOD; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; EXTINCTION RISK; HOST-PARASITOID INTERACTION; METAPOPULATION; MICROCOSM; REGULATORY FRAMEWORK; STOCHASTICITY; TROPHIC INTERACTION;

ANIMAL EXPERIMENT; ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; HOST PARASITE INTERACTION; INTERSPECIFIC COMPETITION; METAPOPULATION; MICROCOSM; NONHUMAN; POPULATION ABUNDANCE; POPULATION DENSITY DEPENDENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SPECIES EXTINCTION; ANIMAL; BEETLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; COMPARATIVE STUDY; ENVIRONMENT; HYMENOPTERA; PARASITOLOGY; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RISK FACTOR; STATISTICS;

ANIMALS; BEETLES; ENVIRONMENT; EXTINCTION, BIOLOGICAL; HOST-PARASITE RELATIONS; HYMENOPTERA; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RISK FACTORS; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES;

EID: 33847730686     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3691     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Bellows, T. S. 1982 Analytical models for laboratory populations of Callosobruchus chinensis and C. maculatus (Coleoptera, Bruchidae). J. Anim. Ecol. 51, 263-287.
2. Benton, T. G., Lapsley, C. T. & Beckerman, A. P. 2002 The population response to environmental noise: population size, variance and correlation in an experimental system. J. Anim. Ecol. 71, 320-332. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2656.2002.00601.x)
3. Bonsall, M. B. & Benmayor, R. 2005 Multiple infections alter density dependence in host-pathogen interactions. J. Anim. Ecol. 74, 937-945. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2005.00991.x)
4. Bonsall, M. B. & Hassell, M. P. 1997 Apparent competition structures ecological assemblages. Nature 388, 371-373. (doi:10.1038/41084)
5. Bonsall, M. B. & Hassell, M. P. 2005 Understanding ecological concepts: the role of laboratory systems. Adv. Ecol. Res. 37, 1-36. (doi:10.1016/S0065-2504(04)37001-7)
6. Bonsall, M. B. & Hastings, A. 2004 Demographic and environmental stochasticity in predator-prey metapopulation dynamics. J. Anim. Ecol. 73, 1043-1055. (doi:10.1111/j.0021-8790.2004.00874.x)
7. Bonsall, M. B., French, D. R. & Hassell, M. P. 2002 Metapopulation structures affect persistence of predator-prey interactions. J. Anim. Ecol. 71, 1075-1084. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2656.2002.00670.x)
8. Bonsall, M. B., Bull, J. C., Pickup, N. J. & Hassell, M. P. 2005 Indirect effects and spatial scaling affect the persistence of multispecies metapopulations. Proc. R. Soc. B 272, 1465-1471. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3111)
9. Brook, B. W., O'Grady, J. J., Chapman, A. P., Burgman, M. A., Akcakaya, H. R. & Frankham, R. 2000 Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature 404, 385-387. (doi:10.1038/35006050)
10. Brown, J. H. & Kodrick-Brown, A. 1977 Turnover rates in insular biogeography: the effect of immigration on extinction. Ecology 58, 445-449.
11. Bull, J. C., Pickup, N. J., Hassell, M. P. & Bonsall, M. B. 2006 Habitat shape, metapopulation processes and the dynamics of multispecies predator-prey interactions. J. Anim. Ecol. 75, 899-907. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2006.01107.x)
12. Burnham, K. P. & Anderson, D. R. 2002 Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. New York, NY: Springer.
13. Caswell, H. 2001 Matrix population models, 2nd edn. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates, Inc.
14. Caughley, G. 1994 Directions in conservation biology. J. Anim. Ecol. 63, 215-244. (doi:10.2307/5542)
15. Chase, J. M. & Ryberg, W. A. 2004 Connectivity, scale-dependence, and the productivity-diversity relationship. Ecol. Lett. 7, 676-683. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00622.x)
16. Childs, D. Z., Bonsall, M. B. & Rees, M. 2004 Periodic local disturbance in host-parasitoid metapopulations: host suppression and parasitoid persistence. J. Theor. Biol. 227, 13-23. (doi:10.1016/S0022- 5193(03)00293-5)
17. Coulson, T., Catchpole, E. A., Albon, S. D., Morgan, B. J. T., Pemberton, J. M., Clutton-Brock, T. H., Crawley, M. J. & Grenfell, B. T. 2001 Age, sex, density, winter weather and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science 292, 1528-1531. (doi:10.1126/science.292.5521.1528)
18. Cox, D. R. & Oakes, D. 1984 Analysis of survival data. London, UK: Chapman & Hall.
19. Drake, J. M. 2005 Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations. PLoS Biol. 3, e222. (doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0030222)
20. Drake, J. M. & Lodge, D. M. 2004 Effects of environmental variation on extinction and establishment. Ecol. Lett. 7, 26-30. (doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00546.x)
21. Efron, B. & Tibshirani, R. J. 1993 An introduction to the bootstrap. Monographs on statistics and applied probability. London, UK: Chapman & Hall.
22. Ellner, S. P. et al. 2001 Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community. Nature 412, 538-543. (doi:10.1038/35087580)
23. Grenfell, B. T., Wilson, K., Finkenstadt, B. F., Coulson, T. H., Murray, S., Albon, S. D., Pemberton, J. M., Clutton-Brock, T. H. & Crawley, M. J. 1998 Noise and determinism in synchronized sheep dynamics. Nature 394, 674-677. (doi:10.1038/29291)
24. Grimm, V. & Wissell, C. 2004 The intrinsic mean time to extinction. Oikos 105, 501-511. (doi:10.1111/j.0030-1299.2004.12606.x)
25. Hanski, I. 1990 Density dependence, regulation and variability in animal populations. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 330, 141-150.
26. Hanski, I. 1991 Single-species metapopulation dynamics - concepts, models and observations. Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 42, 17-38.
27. Hanski, I. 1999 Metapopulation ecology. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
28. Holyoak, M. 2000a Habitat patch arrangement and metapopulation persistence of predators and prey. Am. Nat. 156, 378-389. (doi:10.1086/303395)
29. Holyoak, M. 2000b The effects of nutrient enrichment on predator-prey metapopulation dynamics. J. Anim. Ecol. 69, 985-997. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2656.2000.00453.x)
30. Holyoak, M. & Lawler, S. P. 1996 Persistence of an extinction-prone predator-prey interaction through metapopulation dynamics. Ecology 77, 1867-1879. (doi:10. 2307/2265790)
31. Huffaker, C. B., Shea, K. P. & Herman, S. G. 1963 Experimental studies on predation: complex dispersion and levels of food in an acarine predator-prey interaction. Hilgardia 34, 305-329.
32. Lande, R. 1993 Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. Am. Nat. 142, 911-927. (doi:10.1086/285580)
33. Lande, R., Engen, S., Sæther, B.-E., Filli, F., Matthysen, E. & Weimerskirch, H. 2002 Estimating density dependence from population time series using demographic theory and life-history data. Am. Nat. 159, 321-327. (doi:10.1086/338988)
34. Lande, R., Engen, S. & Sæther, B.-E. 2003 Stochastic population dynamics in ecology and conservation. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
35. Lindström, Å., Enemar, A., Andersson, G., von Proschwitz, T. & Nyholm, N. E. I. 2005 Density-dependent reproductive output in relation to a drastically varying food supply: getting the density measure right. Oikos 110, 155-163. (doi:10.1111/j.0030-1299.2005.13828.x)
36. Ludwig, D. 1996 The distribution of population survival times. Am. Nat. 147, 506-526. (doi:10.1086/285863)
37. Mace, G. M. & Lande, R. 1991 Assessing extinction threats: towards a re-evaluation of IUCN species threatened categories. Conserv. Biol. 5, 148-157. (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.1991.tb00119.x)
38. McLaughlin, J. F., Hellmann, J. J., Boggs, C. L. & Ehrlich, P. R. 2002 Climate change hastens population extinctions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 6070-6074. (doi:10.1073/pnas.052131199)
39. McNamara, J. M. & Harding, K. C. 2004 Measurement error and estimates of population extinction risk. Ecol. Lett. 7, 16-20. (doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00550.x)
40. Meir, E. & Fagan, W. F. 2000 Will observation error and biases ruin the use of simple extinction models? Conserv. Biol. 14, 148-154. (doi:10.1046/j,1523-1739.2000.98502.x)
41. Morris, W. F. & Doak, D. F. 2002 Quantitative conservation biology: theory and practice of population viability analysis. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates, Inc.
42. Pinheiro, J. C. & Bates, D. M. 2000 Mixed-effects models in S and S-Plus. New York, NY: Springer.
43. Roy, M., Holt, R. D. & Barfield, M. 2005 Temporal autocorrelation can enhance the persistence and abundance of metapopulations comprised of coupled sinks. Am. Nat. 166, 246-261. (doi:10.1086/431286)
44. Royama, T. 1992 Analytical population dynamics. London, UK: Chapman & Hall.
45. Sæther, B.-E. & Engen, S. 2004 Stochastic population theory faces reality in the laboratory. Trends Ecol. Evol. 19, 351-353. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2004.05.003)
46. Sevenster, J. G. 1996 Aggregation and coexistence. I. Theory and analysis. J. Anim. Ecol. 65, 297-307. (doi:10.2307/5876)
47. Sevenster, J. G. & van Alphen, J. J. M. 1996 Aggregation and coexistence. II. A neotropical Drosophila community. J. Anim. Ecol. 65, 308-324.
48. Shenk, T. M., White, G. C. & Burnham, K. P. 1998 Sampling variance effects on detecting density dependence from temporal trends in natural populations. Ecol. Monogr. 68, 445-463. (doi:10.2307/2657247)
49. Solow, A. R. 2001 Observation error and the detection of delayed density dependence. Ecology 82, 3263-3264. (doi:10.2307/2679850)
50. van Veen, F. J. F., van Holland, P. D. & Godfray, H. C. J. 2005 Stable coexistence in insect communities due to density- and trait-mediated indirect effects. Ecology 86, 1382-1389.
51. Wertheim, B. G., Sevenster, J. G., Eijs, I. E. M. & van Alphen, J. J. M. 2000 Species diversity in a mycophagous insect community: the case of spatial aggregation vs. resource partitioning. J. Anim. Ecol. 69, 335-351. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2656.2000.00396.x)
52. Wertheim, B. G., Kraaijeveld, A. R., Shuster, E., Blanc, E., Hopkins, M., Pletcher, S. D., Strand, M. R., Partridge, L. & Godfray, H. C. J. 2005 Genome-wide expression in response to parasitoid attack in Drosophila. Genome Biol. 6, R94.