Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests

Nature

Volumn 479, Issue 7374, 2011, Pages 517-520

  Bertrand, Romain ^a,b   Lenoir, Jonathan ^c   Piedallu, Christian ^a,b   Dillon, Gabriela Riofrío ^a,b   De Ruffray, Patrice ^d   Vidal, Claude ^e   Pierrat, Jean Claude ^a,b   Gégout, Jean Claude ^a,b  

^a AGROPARISTECH   (France)

^b LERFoB   (France)

^c AARHUS UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

^d UNIVERSITÉ DE STRASBOURG   (France)

^e Inventaire Forestier National   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIOTIC FACTOR; CLIMATE CHANGE; FOREST ECOSYSTEM; HABITAT FRAGMENTATION; LOWLAND ENVIRONMENT; PLANT COMMUNITY; THEORETICAL STUDY; UPLAND REGION;

ALTITUDE; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; FOREST; FRANCE; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; HABITAT; LATITUDE; MOUNTAINEERING; NONHUMAN; PLANT COMMUNITY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION; VELOCITY;

ALTITUDE; BIOTA; FRANCE; GLOBAL WARMING; HISTORY, 20TH CENTURY; HISTORY, 21ST CENTURY; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; PLANTS; TEMPERATURE; TIME FACTORS; TREES;

FRANCE;

EID: 81855170241     PISSN: 00280836     EISSN: 14764687     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nature10548     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421, 37-42 (2003).
2. Rosenzweig, C. et al. in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Parry, M. L. et al.) 79-131 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
3. Williams, J. W. & Jackson, S. T. Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Front. Ecol. Environ 5, 475-482 (2007).
4. Wing, S. L. et al. Transient floral change and rapid global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. Science 310, 993-996 (2005).
5. Davis, M. B. in Community Ecology (eds Diamond, J. & Case, T. J.) 269-284 (Harper and Row, 1986).
6. Loarie, S. R. et al. The velocity of climate change. Nature 462, 1052-1055 (2009).
7. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araujo, M. B., Sykes, M. T. & Prentice, I. C. Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 8245-8250 (2005).
8. Jump, A. S., Matyas, C. & Penuelas, J. The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species. Trends Ecol. Evol. 24, 694-701 (2009).
9. Scherrer, D. & Korner, C. Topographically controlled thermal-habitat differentiation buffers alpine plant diversity against climate warming. J. Biogeogr. 38, 406-416 (2011).
10. Colwell, R. K., Brehm, G., Cardelus, C. L., Gilman, A. C. & Longino, J. T. Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science 322, 258-261 (2008).
11. Crimmins, S. M., Dobrowski, S. Z., Greenberg, J. A., Abatzoglou, J. T. & Mynsberge, A. R. Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations. Science 331, 324-327 (2011).
12. Doak, D. F. & Morris, W. F. Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts. Nature 467, 959-962 (2010).
13. Lenoir, J. et al. Going against the flow: potential mechanisms for unexpected down slope range shifts in a warming climate. Ecography 33, 295-303 (2010).
14. Cannone, N., Sgorbati, S. & Guglielmin, M. Unexpected impacts of climate change on alpine vegetation. Front. Ecol. Environ 5, 360-364 (2007).
15. Hillebrand, H., Soininen, J. & Snoeijs, P. Warming leads to higher species turnover in a coastal ecosystem. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1181-1193 (2010).
16. le Roux, P. C. & McGeoch, M. A. Rapid range expansion and community reorganization in response to warming. Glob. Change Biol. 14, 2950-2962 (2008).
17. Lenoir, J., Gegout, J.-C., Dupouey, J.-L., Bert, D. & Svenning, J.-C. Forest plant community changes during 1989-2007 in response to climate warming in the Jura Mountains (France and Switzerland). J. Veg. Sci. 21, 949-964 (2010).
18. Moritz, C. et al. Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA. Science 322, 261-264 (2008).
19. Lenoir, J., Gegout, J.-C., Marquet, P. A., de Ruffray, P. & Brisse, H. A significant upward shift in plant species optimumelevation during the 20th century. Science 320, 1768-1771 (2008).
20. Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B. & Jones, P. D. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new data set from 1850. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 111, D12106, 1-21 (2006).
21. Heikkilä, M. & Seppä, H. A 11,000 yr palaeo temperature reconstruction from the southern boreal zone in Finland. Quat. Sci. Rev. 22, 541-554 (2003).
22. Vennetier, M. & Ripert, C. Forest flora turnover with climate change in the Mediterranean region: a case study in Southeastern France. For. Ecol. Mgmt 258, S56-S63 (2009).
23. Primack, R. B. & Miao, S. L. Dispersal can limit local plant-distribution. Conserv. Biol. 6, 513-519 (1992).
24. Huntley, B. Evolutionary response to climatic change? Heredity 98, 247-248 (2007).
25. Jump, A. S. & Penuelas, J. Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change. Ecol. Lett. 8, 1010-1020 (2005).
26. Jackson, S. T. & Sax, D. F. Balancing biodiversity in a changing environment: extinction debt, immigration credit and species turnover. Trends Ecol. Evol. 25, 153-160 (2010).
27. Walther, G. R. Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365, 2019-2024 (2010).
28. Ninyerola, M., Pons, X. & Roure, J. M. A methodological approach of climatological modelling of air temperature and precipitation through GIS techniques. Int. J. Climatol. 20, 1823-1841 (2000).
29. ter Braak, C. J. F. & van Dam, H. Inferring pH from diatoms: a comparison of old and new calibration methods. Hydrobiologia 178, 209-223 (1989).
30. Breiman, L. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45, 5-32 (2001).