The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1

Geoscientific Model Development

Volumn 9, Issue 6, 2016, Pages 2255-2270

  Day, Jonathan J ^a   Tietsche, Steffen ^b   Collins, Mat ^c   Goessling, Helge F ^d   Guemas, Virginie ^e,f   Guillory, Anabelle ^g   Hurlin, William J ^h   Ishii, Masayoshi ⁱ   Keeley, Sarah P E ^b   Matei, Daniela ^j   Msadek, Rym ^f   Sigmond, Michael ^k   Tatebe, Hiroaki ^l   Hawkins, Ed ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^b EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^d ALFRED WEGENER INSTITUTE FOR POLAR AND MARINE RESEARCH   (Germany)

^e Unitat de Dinàmica I Impacte Climàtic UDIC Institut Català de Ciències del Clima   (Spain)

^f CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES   (France)

^g RUTHERFORD APPLETON LABORATORY   (United Kingdom)

^h NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

ⁱ METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

^j MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^k ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

^l JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Japan)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CIRCULATION MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIATION; DATA SET; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FORECASTING METHOD; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; SEA ICE; TIMESCALE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ARCTIC OCEAN;

EID: 84977084249     PISSN: 1991959X     EISSN: 19919603     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Arzel, O., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H.: Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs, Ocean Model., 12, 401-415, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2005.08.002, 2006.
2. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Armour, K. C., Bitz, C. M., and DeWeaver, E.: Persistence and Inherent Predictability of Arctic Sea Ice in a GCM Ensemble and Observations, J. Climate, 24, 231-250, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3775.1, 2011a.
3. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bitz, C., and Holland, M.: Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L18503, doi:10.1029/2011GL048807, 2011b.
4. Chevallier, M., Salasy Mélia, D., Voldoire, A., Déqué, M., and Garric, G.: Seasonal Forecasts of the Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using a GCM-Based Seasonal Prediction System, J. Climate, 26, 6092-6104, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00612.1, 2013.
5. Collins, M.: Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem, Clim. Dynam., 19, 671-692, doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0254-8, 2002.
6. Collins, M., Frame, D., Sinha, B., and Wilson, C.: How far ahead could we predict El Niño?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 130-1-130-4, doi:10.1029/2001GL013919, 2002.
7. Collins, M., Botzet, M., Carril, A. F., Drange, H., Jouzeau, A., Latif, M., Masina, S., Otteraa, O. H., Pohlmann, H., Sorteberg, A., Sutton, R., and Terray, L.: Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: a multimodel-ensemble study, J. Climate, 19, 1195-1203, 2006.
8. Conkright, M. E., Locarnini, R. A., Garcia, H. E., O'Brien, T. D., Boyer, T. P., Stephens, C., and Antonov, J. I.: World Ocean Atlas 2001: Objective analyses, data statistics, and figures: CD-ROM documentation, US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Oceanographic Data Center, Ocean Climate Laboratory, NODC Internal Report 17, Silver Spring MD, 17 pp., 2002.
9. Day, J., Hawkins, E., and Tietsche, S.: Collection of Multi-model Data from the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonalto-Interannual Time-scales (APPOSITE) Project, NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre, doi:10.5285/45814db8-56cd-44f2-b3a4-92e41eaaff3f, 2015.
10. Day, J. J., Hawkins, E., and Tietsche, S.: Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7566-7575, doi:10.1002/2014GL061694, 2014a.
11. Day, J. J., Tietsche, S., and Hawkins, E.: Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Predictability: Initialization Month Dependence, J. Climate, 27, 4371-4390, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00614.1, 2014b.
12. DelSole, T., Yan, X., Dirmeyer, P. A., Fennessy, M., and Altshuler, E.: Changes in seasonal predictability due to global warming, J. Climate, 27, 300-311, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00026.1, 2014.
13. Donner, L. J., Wyman, B. L., Hemler, R. S., Horowitz, L.W., Ming, Y., Zhao, M., Golaz, J.-C., Ginoux, P., Lin, S.-J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Austin, J., Alaka, G., Cooke, W. F., Delworth, T. L., Freidenreich, S. M., Gordon, C. T., Griffies, S. M., Held, I. M., Hurlin, W. J., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H.-C., Lin, Y., Magi, B. I., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Naik, V., Nath, M. J., Pincus, R., Ploshay, J. J., Ramaswamy, V., Seman, C. J., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J. J., Stern, W. F., Stouffer, R. J., Wilson, R. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., and Zeng, F.: The Dynamical Core, Physical Parameterizations, and Basic Simulation Characteristics of the Atmospheric Component AM3 of the GFDL Global Coupled Model CM3, J. Climate, 24, 3484-3519, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3955.1, 2011.
14. Eade, R., Smith, D., Scaife, A., Wallace, E., Dunstone, N., Hermanson, L., and Robinson, N.: Do seasonal to decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5620-5628, doi:10.1002/2014GL061146, 2014.
15. Eicken, H.: Ocean science: Arctic sea ice needs better forecasts, Nature, 497, 431-433, doi:10.1038/497431a, 2013.
16. Emmerson, C. and Lahn, G.: Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North, Tech. rep., Lloyds, Chattham House, 2012.
17. Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C., Collins, W., Cox, P., Driouech, F., Emori, S., Eyring, V., Forest, C., Gleckler, P., Guilyardi, E., Jakob, C., Kattsov, V., Reason, C., and Rummukainen, M.: Evaluation of Climate Models, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
18. Germe, A., Chevallier, M., Salasy Mélia, D., Sanchez-Gomez, E., and Cassou, C.: Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: regional contrasts and temporal evolution, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2519-2538, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2071-2, 2014.
19. Goessling, H. F., Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Hawkins, E., and Jung, T.: Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1642-1650, doi:10.1002/2015GL067232, 2016.
20. Goosse, H., Arzel, O., Bitz, C. M., de Montety, A., and Vancoppenolle, M.: Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23702, doi:10.1029/2009GL040546, 2009.
21. Griffies, S. and Bryan, K.: A predictability study of simulated North Atlantic multidecadal variability, Clim. Dynam., 13, 459-487, doi:10.1007/s003820050177, 1997a.
22. Griffies, S. M. and Bryan, K.: Predictability of North Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability, Science, 275, 181-184, doi:10.1126/science.275.5297.181, 1997b.
23. Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Donner, L. J., Horowitz, L.W., Downes, S. M., Farneti, R., Gnanadesikan, A., Hurlin, W. J., Lee, H.-C., Liang, Z., Palter, J. B., Samuels, B. L., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B. L., Yin, J., and Zadeh, N.: The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: Characteristics of the Ocean and Sea Ice Simulations, J. Climate, 24, 3520-3544, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI3964.1, 2011.
24. Guemas, V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Chevallier, M., Day, J. J., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fučkar, N. S., Germe, A., Hawkins, E., Keeley, S., Koenigk, T., Salasy Mélia, D., and Tietsche, S.: A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales: Arctic Sea-Ice Predictability and Prediction, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 546-561, doi:10.1002/qj.2401, 2016.
25. Hawkins, E., Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Melia, N., Haines, K., and Keeley, S.: Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-tointerannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 672-683, doi:10.1002/qj.2643, 2016.
26. Hazeleger, W., Wang, X., Severijns, C., ŞtefǍnescu, S., Bintanja, R., Sterl, A., Wyser, K., Semmler, T., Yang, S., v. d. Hurk, B., v. Noije, T., v. d. Linden, E., and v. d. Wiel, K.: EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2611-2629, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1228-5, 2012.
27. Holland, M. M., Bitz, C. M., Tremblay, B., and Bailey, D. A.: The role of natural versus forced change in future rapid summer Arctic ice loss, in: Arctic sea ice decline: observations, projections, mechanisms, and implications, edited by: DeWeaver, E., Bitz, C., and Tremblay, B., Vol. 180, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., AGU, Washington, 2008.
28. Holland, M. M., Bailey, D. A., and Vavrus, S.: Inherent sea ice predictability in the rapidly changing Arctic environment of the Community Climate System Model, version 3, Clim. Dynam., 36, 1239-1253, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0792-4, 2010.
29. Holland, M. M., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Kay, J., and Vavrus, S.: Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1-4, doi:10.1002/grl.50410, 2013.
30. Jin, E. K., Kinter, J. L., Wang, B., Park, C.-K., Kang, I.-S., Kirtman, B. P., Kug, J.-S., Kumar, A., Luo, J.-J., Schemm, J., Shukla, J., and Yamagata, T.: Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Clim. Dynam., 31, 647-664, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3, 2008.
31. Johns, T. C., Durman, C. F., Banks, H. T., Roberts, M. J., McLaren, A. J., Ridley, J. K., Senior, C. A., Williams, K. D., Jones, A., Rickard, G. J., Cusack, S., Ingram, W. J., Crucifix, M., Sexton, D. M. H., Joshi, M. M., Dong, B.-W., Spencer, H., Hill, R. S. R., Gregory, J. M., Keen, A. B., Pardaens, A. K., Lowe, J. A., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Stark, S., and Searl, Y.: The new Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM1): Evaluation of coupled simulations, J. Climate, 19, 1327-1353, 2006.
32. Jung, T., Kasper, M. A., Semmler, T., and Serrar, S.: Arctic influence on subseasonal midlatitude prediction, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3676-3680, doi:10.1002/2014GL059961, 2014.
33. Jung, T., Gordon, N. D., Bauer, P., Bromwich, D. H., Chevallier, M., Day, J. J., Dawson, J., Doblas-Reyes, F., Fairall, C, Goessling, H. F., Holland, M., Inoue, J., Iversen, T., Klebe, S., Lemke, P., Losch, M., Makshtas, A., Mills, B., Nurmi, P., Perovich, D., Reid, P., Renfrew, I. A., Smith, G., Svensson, G., Tolstykh, M., and Yang, Q.: Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00246.1, online first, 2016.
34. Jungclaus, J. H., Fischer, N., Haak, H., Lohmann, K., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., and von Storch, J. S.: Characteristics of the ocean simulations in the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) the ocean component of the MPIEarth system model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 422-446, doi:10.1002/jame.20023, 2013.
35. Koenigk, T. and Mikolajewicz, U.: Seasonal to interannual climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes in a global coupled model, Clim. Dynam., 32, 783-798, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0419-1, 2009.
36. Massonnet, F., Fichefet, T., and Goosse, H.: Prospects for improved seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions from multivariate data assimilation, Ocean Model., 88, 16-25, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.12.013, 2015.
37. Merryfield, W. J., Lee, W.-S., Boer, G. J., Kharin, V. V., Scinocca, J. F., Flato, G. M., Ajayamohan, R. S., Fyfe, J. C., Tang, Y., and Polavarapu, S.: The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Models and Initialization, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 2910-2945, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00216.1, 2013.
38. Msadek, R., Vecchi, G. A., Winton, M., and Gudgel, R. G.: Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5208-5215, doi:10.1002/2014GL060799, 2014.
39. Notz, D., Haumann, F. A., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., and Marotzke, J.: Arctic sea-ice evolution as modeled by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth system model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 173-194, doi:10.1002/jame.20016, 2013.
40. Notz, D., Jahn, A., Holland, M., Hunke, E., Massonnet, F., Stroeve, J., Tremblay, B., and Vancoppenolle, M.: Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-67, in review, 2016.
41. Peterson, K. A., Arribas, A., Hewitt, H. T., Keen, A. B., Lea, D. J., and McLaren, A. J.: Assessing the forecast skill of Arctic sea ice extent in the GloSea4 seasonal prediction system, Clim. Dynam., doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2190-9, 2014.
42. Pohlmann, H., Botzet, M., Latif, M., Roesch, A., Wild, M., and Tschuck, P.: Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM, J. Climate, 17, 4463-4472, doi:10.1175/3209.1, 2004.
43. Rayner, N. A., Parker, D. E., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Rowell, D. P., Kent, E. C., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003.
44. Schröder, D., Feltham, D. L., Flocco, D., and Tsamados, M.: September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction, Nature Clim. Change, 4, 353-357, doi:10.1038/nclimate2203, 2014.
45. Schweiger, A., Lindsay, R., Zhang, J., Steele, M., Stern, H., and Kwok, R.: Uncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C00D06, doi:10.1029/2011JC007084, 2011.
46. Serreze, M. C. and Strove, J.: Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting, Philos. T. R. Soc. A., 373, 20140159, doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0159, 2015.
47. Shaffrey, L. C., Stevens, I., Norton, W. A., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Harle, J. D., Jrrar, A., Stevens, D. P., Woodage, M. J., Demory, M. E., Donners, J., Clark, D. B., Clayton, A., Cole, J. W., Wilson, S. S., Connolley, W. M., Davies, T. M., Iwi, A. M., Johns, T. C., King, J. C., New, A. L., Slingo, J. M., Slingo, A., Steenman-Clark, L., and Martin, G. M.: U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model-Model Description and Basic Evaluation, J. Climate, 22, 1861-1896, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2508.1, 2009.
48. Shi, W., Schaller, N., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T. N., and Weisheimer, A.: Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1554-1559, doi:10.1002/2014GL062829, 2015.
49. Sidorenko, D., Rackow, T., Jung, T., Semmler, T., Barbi, D., Danilov, S., Dethloff, K., Dorn, W., Fieg, K., Goessling, H. F., Handorf, D., Harig, S., Hiller, W., Juricke, S., Losch, M., Schröter, J., Sein, D. V., and Wang, Q.: Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part I: model formulation and mean climate, Clim. Dynam., 44, 757-780, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2290-6, 2014.
50. Sigmond, M., Fyfe, J. C., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., and Merryfield, W. J.: Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 529-534, doi:10.1002/grl.50129, 2013.
51. Smith, D. M., Cusack, S., Colman, A. W., Folland, C. K., Harris, G. R., and Murphy, J. M.: Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model, Science, 317, 796-799, doi:10.1126/science.1139540, 2007.
52. Stephenson, S. R., Smith, L. C., Brigham, L. W., and Agnew, J. A.: Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access, Clim. Change, 118, 885-899, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0685-0, 2013.
53. Tietsche, S., Notz, D., Jungclaus, J. H., and Marotzke, J.: Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2511-2526, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1698-8, 2013.
54. Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Guemas, V., Hurlin, W. J. E., Keeley, S. P., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Collins, M., and Hawkins, E.: Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1035-1043, doi:10.1002/2013GL058755, 2014.
55. Tietsche, S., Hawkins, E., and Day, J. J.: Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate, J. Climate, 29, 331-346, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0421.1, 2016.
56. Wang, W., Chen, M., and Kumar, A.: Seasonal Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent from a Coupled Dynamical Forecast System, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 1375-1394, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00057.1, 2013.
57. Watanabe, M., Suzuki, T., O'ishi, R., Komuro, Y., Watanabe, S., Emori, S., Takemura, T., Chikira, M., Ogura, T., Sekiguchi, M., Takata, K., Yamazaki, D., Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Hasumi, H., Tatebe, H., and Kimoto, M.: Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity, J. Climate, 23, 6312-6335, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1, 2010.