Inherent sea ice predictability in the rapidly changing Arctic environment of the Community Climate System Model, version 3

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 36, Issue 7, 2011, Pages 1239-1253

  Holland, Marika M ^a   Bailey, David A ^a   Vavrus, Steve ^b  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; CLIMATE MODELING; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ICE COVER; ICE THICKNESS; PREDICTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SEA ICE;

ARCTIC;

EID: 79851500076     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0792-4     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Arzel O, Fichefet T, Goosse H (2006) Sea ice evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries as simulated by current AOGCMs. Ocean Model 12: 401-415.
2. Bitz CM, Roe GH (2004) A mechanism for the high rate of sea-ice thinning in the Arctic Ocean. J Clim 17: 3622-3631.
3. Bitz CM, Holland MM, Hunke E, Moritz RE (2005) Maintenance of the sea-ice edge. J Clim 18: 2903-2921.
4. Bonan GB et al (2002) The land surface climatology of the Community Land Model coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. J Clim 15: 3123.
5. Bourke RH, Garrett RP (1987) Sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Cold Reg Sci Tech 13: 259-280.
6. Briegleb BP, Bitz CM, Hunke EC, Lipscomb WH, Holland MM, Schramm JL, Moritz RE (2004) Scientific description of the sea ice component in the Community Climate System Model, version 3. NCAR Tech Note. NCAAR/TN-463+STR.
7. Collins WD et al (2006a) The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3. J Clim 19: 2122-2143.
8. Collins WD et al (2006b) The formulation and atmospheric simulation of the Community Atmospheric Model: CAM3. J Clim 19: 2144-2161.
9. Deser C, Tomas RA, Peng S (2007) The transient atmospheric circulation response to north Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies. J Clim 20: 4751-4767. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI4278. 1.
10. Döscher R, Wyser K, Meier HEM, Qian M, Redler R (2009) Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0567-y.
11. Drobot SD, Maslanik JA (2002) A practical method for long-range forecasting of ice severity in the Beaufort Sea. Geophys Res Lett 29(8): 1213. doi: 10. 1029/2001GL014173.
12. Drobot SD, Maslanik JA, Fowler C (2006) A long-range forecast of Arctic summer sea-ice minimum extent. Geophys Res Lett 33. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026216.
13. Fetterer F, Knowles K, Meier W, Savoie M (2002) Updated 2007: sea ice index. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Digital media.
14. Francis JA, Hunter E (2007) Changes in the fabric of the Arctic's greenhouse blanket. Environ Res Lett 2. doi: 10. 1088/1748-9326/2/4/045011.
15. Gent PR, McWilliams JC (1990) Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models. J Phys Oceanogr 20: 150-155.
16. Gerdes R, Koberle C (2007) Comparison of Arctic sea ice thickness variability in IPCC climate of the 20th century experiments and in ocean-sea ice hindcasts. J Geophys Res 112: C04S13. doi: 10. 1029/2006JC003616.
17. Goosse H, Arzel O, Bitz CM, de Montety A, Vancoppenolle M (2009) Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate. Geophys Res Lett 36: L23702. doi: 10. 1029/2009GL040546.
18. Holland MM, Bitz CM, Tremblay B (2006a) Future abrupt reductions in the Summer Arctic sea ice. Geophys Res Lett 33: L23503. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL028024.
19. Holland MM, Bitz CM, Hunke EC, Lipscomb WH, Schramm JL (2006b) Influence of the sea ice thickness distribution on Polar Climate in CCSM3. J Clim 19: 2398-2414.
20. Holland MM, Serreze MC, Stroeve J (2008a) The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-008-0493-4.
21. Holland MM, Bitz CM, Tremblay B, Bailey DA (2008b) The role of natural versus forced change in future rapid summer Arctic ice loss. In: DeWeaver ET, Bitz CM, Tremblay L-B (eds) Arctic sea ice decline: observations, projections, mechanisms, and implications. Geophys Monogr Ser, vol 180. AGU, Washington, pp 133-150.
22. Hunke EC, Dukowicz JK (1997) An elastic-viscous-plastic model for sea ice dynamics. J Phys Oceanogr 27: 1849-1867.
23. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 pp.
24. Jochum M, Danabasoglu G, Holland M, Kwon YO, Large WG (2008) Ocean viscosity and climate. J Geophys Res 113. doi: 10. 1029/2007JC004515.
25. Kauker F, Kaminski T, Karcher M, Giering R, Gerdes R, Voßbec M (2009) Adjoint analysis of the 2007 all time Arctic sea-ice minimum. Geophys Res Lett 36. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL036323.
26. Kay JE, L'Ecuyer T, Gettleman A, Stephens G, O'Dell C (2008) The contribution of cloud and radiation anomalies to the 2007 Arctic sea ice extent minimum. Geophys Res Lett 35: L08503. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL033451.
27. Koenigk T, Mikolajewicz U (2008) Seasonal to interannual climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes in a global coupled model. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-008-0419-1.
28. Large WG, McWilliams JC, Doney SC (1994) Ocean vertical mixing: a review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization. Rev Geophys 32: 363-403.
29. Lindsay RW, Zhang J, Schweiger AJ, Steele MA (2008) Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean. J Geophys Res 113: C02023. doi: 10. 1029/2007JC004259.
30. Lindsay RW, Zhang J, Schweiger A, Steele M, Stern H (2009) Arctic sea ice retreat in 2007 follows thinning trend. J Clim 22: 165-176.
31. Bitz CM, Lipscomb WH (1999) An energy-conserving thermodynamic model of sea ice. J Geophys Res 104: 15669-15677.
32. Lipscomb WH (2001) Remapping the thickness distribution in sea ice models. J Geophys Res 106(13): 13989-14000.
33. Maslanik JA, Fowler C, Stroeve J, Drobot S, Zwally J, Yi D, Emery W (2007) A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: increased potential for rapid, extensive sea-ice loss. Geophys Res Lett 34: L24501. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL032043.
34. Meehl GA et al (2006) Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J Clim 19(11): 2597-2616.
35. Overland JE, Spillane MC, Soreide NN (2004) Integrated analysis of physical and biological pan-arctic change. Clim Change 63: 291-322.
36. Pohlmann H, Botzet M, Latif M, Roesch A, Wild M, Tschuck P (2004) Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM. J Clim 17: 4463-4472.
37. Rothrock DA, Zhang J, Yu Y (2003) The arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: a consistent view from observations and models. J Geophys Res 108(C3): 3038 (28-37). doi: 10. 1029/2001JC001208.
38. Schweiger AJ, Zhang J, Lindsay RW, Steele M (2008) Did unusually sunny skies help drive the record sea ice minimum of 2007? Geophys Res Lett 35: L10503. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL033463.
39. Serreze MC, Holland MM, Stroeve J (2007) Perspectives on the Arctic's shrinking sea-ice cover. Science 315: 1533-1536.
40. Smith R, Gent P (2004) Reference manual for the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM2. 0 and 3. 0). LAUR-02-2484. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos.
41. Stroeve JC, Holland MM, Meier W, Scambos T, Serreze MC (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: faster than forecast. Geophys Res Lett 34: L09501. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL029703.
42. Stroeve J, Serreze M, Drobot S, Gearhead S, Holland M, Maslanik J, Meier W, Scambos T (2008) Arctic sea ice plummets in 2007. EOS 89(2): 13-14.
43. Thorndike AS, Rothrock DS, Maykut GA, Colony R (1975) Thickness distribution of sea ice. J Geophys Res 80: 4501-4513.
44. Walsh JE (1980) Empirical orthogonal functions and the statistical predictability of sea ice extent. In: Pritchard RS (ed) Sea ice processes and models. University of Washington Press, Seattle, pp 373-384.
45. Zhang X, Walsh JE (2006) Toward a seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean: scenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations. J Clim 19: 1730-1747.
46. Zhang J, Steele M, Lindsay R, Schweiger A, Morison J (2008a) Ensemble 1-year predictions of Arctic sea ice for the spring and summer of 2008. Geophys Res Lett 35: L08502. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL033244.
47. Zhang J, Lindsay R, Steele M, Schweiger A (2008b) What drove the dramatic retreat of Arctic sea ice during summer 2007? Geophys Res Lett 35: L11505. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL034005.