Recipe for disaster how the dynamic ingredients of risk and exposure are changing the tornado disaster landscape

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 97, Issue 5, 2016, Pages 817-820

  Ashley, Walker S ^a   Strader, Stephen M ^a  

^a NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DISASTERS; TORNADOES;

DYNAMIC VARIABLES; NATIONAL LEVEL;

RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84973468807     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00150.1     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (88)

1. Abbey, R., Jr., and T. Fujita, 1975: Use of tornado path lengths and gradations of damage to assess tornado intensity probabilities. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Severe and Local Storms, Norman, OK, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 286-293.
2. -, and -, 1979: The DAPPLE method for computing tornado hazard probabilities: Refinements and theoretical considerations. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kansas City, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 241-248.
3. Agee, E., and S. Childs, 2014: Adjustments in tornado counts, F-scale intensity, and path width for assessing significant tornado destruction. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 1494-1505, doi:10.1175/JAMC -D-13-0235.1.
4. Anderson, C. J., C. K. Wikle, Q. Zhou, and J. A. Royle, 2007: Population influences on tornado reports in the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 571-579, doi:10.1175/WAF997.1.
5. Ashley, W. S., 2007: Spatial and temporal analysis of tornado fatalities in the United States: 1880-2005. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 1214-1228, doi:10.1175/2007WAF2007004.1.
6. -, A. J. Krmenec, and R. Schwantes, 2008: Vulnerability due to nocturnal tornadoes. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 795-807, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222132.1.
7. -, S. Strader, T. Rosencrants, and A. J. Krmenec, 2014: Spatiotemporal changes in tornado hazard exposure: The case of the expanding bull's-eye effect in Chicago, Illinois. Wea. Climate Soc., 6, 175-193, doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00047.1.
8. Atkins, N. T., K. M. Butler, K. R. Flynn, and R. M. Wakimoto, 2014: An integrated damage, visual, and radar analysis of the 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, EF5 tornado. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 1549-1561, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00033.1.
9. Birkmann, J., 2013: Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. 2nd ed. United Nations University Press, 720 pp.
10. -, and Coauthors, 2013: Scenarios for vulnerability: Opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk. Climatic Change, 133, 53-68, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2.
11. Boruff, B. J., J. A. Easoz, S. D. Jones, H. R. Landry, J. D. Mitchem, and S. L. Cutter, 2003: Tornado hazards in the United States. Climate Res., 24, 103-117, doi:10.3354/cr024103.
12. Bouwer, L. M., 2011: Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 39-46, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1.
13. Brooks, H. E., 2004: On the relationship of tornado path length and width to intensity. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 310-319, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2004)0190310:OT ROTP2.0.CO;2.
14. - , 2013: Severe thunderstorms and climate change. Atmos. Res., 123, 129-138, doi:10.1016/j .atmosres.2012.04.002.
15. -, and C. A. Doswell III, 2002: Deaths in the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado from a historical perspective. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 354-361, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2002)0170354:DITMOC 2.0.CO;2.
16. - , - , and M. P. Kay, 2003: Climatological estimates of local daily tornado probability. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 626-640, doi:10.1175/1520 -0434(2003)0180626:CEOLDT2.0.CO;2.
17. -, G. W. Carbin, and P. T. Marsh, 2014: Increased variability of tornado occurrence in the United States. Science, 346, 349-352, doi:10.1126/science.1257460.
18. Brown, D. G., K. M. Johnson, T. R. Loveland, and D. M. Theobald, 2005: Rural land-use trends in the conterminous United States, 1950-2000. Ecol. Appl., 15, 1851-1863, doi:10.1890/03-5220.
19. Bryant, B. P., and A. L. Westerling, 2014: Scenarios for future wildfire risk in California: Links between changing demography, land use, climate, and wildfire. Environmetrics, 25, 454-471, doi:10.1002/env.2280.
20. Burby, R. J., R. E. Deyle, D. R. Godschalk, and R. B. Olshansky, 2000: Creating hazard resilient communities through land-use planning. Nat. Hazards Rev., 1, 99-106, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2000)1:2(99).
21. Burgess, D., and Coauthors, 2014: 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, tornado: Damage survey and analysis. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 1229-1237, doi:10.1175/WAF -D-14-00039.1.
22. Coleman, T. A., and P. G. Dixon, 2014: An objective analysis of tornado risk in the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 366-376, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-13-00057.1.
23. Cutter, S. L., C. T. Emrich, J. J. Webb, and D. Morath, 2009: Social vulnerability to climate variability hazards: A review of the literature. Hazard Vulnerability Institute, Dept. of Geography, University of South Carolina, 44 pp.
24. Diffenbaugh, N. S., M. Scherer, and R. J. Trapp, 2013: Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 16 361-16 366, doi:10.1073 /pnas.1307758110.
25. Dixon, P. G., and A. E. Mercer, 2012: Reply to "Comments on 'Tornado risk analysis: Is Dixie Alley an extension of Tornado Alley?'" Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 408-410, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00219.1.
26. -, -, J. Choi, and J. S. Allen, 2011: Tornado risk analysis: Is Dixie Alley an extension of Tornado Alley? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 433-441, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3102.1.
27. Doswell, C. A., III, 2007: Small sample size and data quality issues illustrated using tornado occurrence data. Electron. J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (5). [Available online at www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm /article/viewarticle/26/27.]
28. -, and D. W. Burgess, 1988: On some issues of United States tornado climatology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 495-501, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1988)1160495:OS IOUS2.0.CO;2.
29. -, A. R. Moller, and H. E. Brooks, 1999: Storm spotting and public awareness since the first tornado forecasts of 1948. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 544-557, doi:10.1175/1520 -0434(1999)0140544:SSAPAS2.0.CO;2.
30. -, H. E. Brooks, and N. Doztek, 2009: On the implementation of the enhanced Fujita scale in the USA. Atmos. Res., 93, 554-563, doi:10.1016/j .atmosres.2008.11.003.
31. -, G. W. Carbin, and H. E. Brooks, 2012: The tornadoes of spring 2011 in the USA: An historical perspective. Weather, 67, 88-94, doi:10.1002/wea.1902.
32. Elsner, J. B., S. C. Elsner, and T. H. Jagger, 2015: The increasing efficiency of tornado days in the United States. Climate Dyn., 45, 651-659, doi:10.1007 /s00382-014-2277-3.
33. Farney, T. J., and P. G. Dixon, 2015: Variability of tornado climatology across the continental United States. Int. J. Climatol., 35, 2993-3006, doi:10.1002/joc.4188.
34. Field, C. B., and Coauthors, Eds., 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press, 582 pp.
35. Fujita, T. T., 1987: U.S. tornadoes: Part 1: 70-year statistics. SMRP Research Paper SMRP-RP-218, 133 pp.
36. -, 1993: Plainfield tornado of August 28, 1990. The Tornado: Its Structure, Dynamics, Prediction and Hazards, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 79, Amer. Geophys. Union, 1-17.
37. Gagan, J. P., A. Gerard, and J. Gordon, 2010: A historical and statistical comparison of "Tornado Alley" to "Dixie Alley." Natl. Wea. Dig., 34 (2), 145-155.
38. Gensini, V. A., and W. S. Ashley, 2011: Climatology of potentially severe convective environments from North American Regional Reanalysis. Electron. J. Severe Storms Meteor., 6 (8). [Available online at www.ejssm .org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/viewArticle/85.]
39. -, and T. L. Mote, 2014: Estimations of hazardous convective weather in the United States using dynamical downscaling. J. Climate, 27, 6581-6589, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00777.1.
40. -, and -, 2015: Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3. Climatic Change, 129, 307-321, doi:10.1007/s10584-014 -1320-z.
41. -, C. A. Ramseyer, and T. L. Mote, 2014: Future convective environments using NARCCAP. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1699-1705, doi:10.1002/joc.3769.
42. Godschalk, D., T. Beatley, P. Berke, D. Brower, and E. J. Kaiser, 1998: Natural Hazard Mitigation: Recasting Disaster Policy and Planning. Island Press, 591 pp.
43. Grazulis, T. P., 1993: Significant Tornadoes: 1680-1991. Environmental Films, 1326 pp.
44. Hall, S. G., and W. S. Ashley, 2008: The effects of urban sprawl on the vulnerability to a significant tornado impact in northeastern Illinois. Nat. Hazards Rev., 9, 209-219, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527 -6988(2008)9:4(209).
45. Huggel, C., D. Stone, M. Auffhammer, and G. Hansen, 2013: Loss and damage attribution. Nat. Climate Change, 3, 694-696, doi:10.1038/nclimate1961.
46. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 1465 pp. [Available online at www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report /ar5/wg3/ipcc-wg3-ar5-full.pdf.]
47. Karstens, C. D., W. A. Gallus Jr., B. D. Lee, and C. A. Finley, 2013: Analysis of tornado-induced tree fall using aerial photography from the Joplin, Missouri, and Tuscaloosa-Birmingham, Alabama, tornadoes of 2011. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 1049-1068, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0206.1.
48. Knupp, K. R., and Coauthors, 2014: Meteorological overview of the devastating 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 1041-1062, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00229.1.
49. Maloney, M. C., and B. L. Preston, 2014: A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications. Climate Risk Manage., 2, 26-41, doi:10.1016/j. crm.2014.02.004.
50. Mann, M. L., P. Berck, M. A. Moritz, E. Batllori, J. G. Baldwin, C. K. Gately, and D. R. Cameron, 2014: Modeling residential development in California from 2000 to 2050: Integrating wildfire risk, wildland and agricultural encroachment. Land Use Policy, 41, 438-452, doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.06.020.
51. Marsh, P. T., and H. E. Brooks, 2012: Comments on "Tornado risk analysis: Is Dixie Alley an extension of Tornado Alley?" Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 405-407, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00200.1.
52. Merrell, D., K. M. Simmons, and D. Sutter, 2002: Taking shelter: Estimating the safety benefits of tornado safe rooms. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 619-625, doi:10.1175/1520 -0434(2002)0170619:TSETSB2.0.CO;2.
53. Mohleji, S., and R. Pielke Jr., 2014: Reconciliation of trends in global and regional economic losses from weather events: 1980-2008. Nat. Hazards Rev., 15, 04014009, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527 -6996.0000141.
54. Morss, R., O. Wilhelmi, G. A. Meehl, and L. Dilling, 2011: Improving societal outcomes of extreme weather in a changing climate: An integrated perspective. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 36, 1-25, doi:10.1146 /annurev-environ-060809-100145.
55. NCDC, 2015: Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: Overview. [Available online at www.ncdc.noaa .gov/billions/.]
56. Paton, D., and D. Johnston, 2006: Disaster Resilience: An Integrated Approach. Thomas Books, 320 pp.
57. Patterson, L. A., and M. W. Doyle, 2009: Assessing effectiveness of national flood policy through spatiotemporal monitoring of socioeconomic exposure. J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc., 45, 237-252, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00275.x.
58. Paul, B. K., 2011: Environmental Hazards: Contexts, Perspectives and Management. Wiley, 334 pp.
59. Pearce, L., 2003: Disaster management and community planning, and public participation: How to achieve sustainable hazard mitigation. Nat. Hazards, 28, 211-228, doi:10.1023/A:1022917721797.
60. Pielke, R. A., Jr., J. Gratz, C. W. Landsea, D. Collins, M. A. Saunders, and R. Musulin, 2008: Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900-2005. Nat. Hazards Rev., 9, 29-42, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527 -6988(2008)9:1(29).
61. Preston, B. L., 2013: Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment. Global Environ. Change, 23, 719-732, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.02.009.
62. -, E. J. Yuen, and R. M. Westaway, 2011: Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: A review of approaches, benefits, and risks. Sustainability Sci., 6, 177-202, doi:10.1007/s11625-011-0129-1.
63. Prevatt, D., and Coauthors, 2012: Making the case for improved structural design: Tornado outbreaks of 2011. Leadership Manage. Eng., 12, 254-270, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)LM.1943-5630.0000192.
64. Ramsdell, J., Jr., J. Rishel, and A. Buslik, 2007: Tornado climatology of the contiguous United States. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Rep. NUREG/CR-4461, Revision 2, PNNL-15112, Revision 1, 246 pp. [Available online at http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs /ML0708/ML070810400.pdf.]
65. Reinhold, T., and B. Ellingwood, 1982: Tornado damage risk assessment. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Rep. NUREG/CR-2944, 61 pp.
66. Rosencrants, T. D., and W. S. Ashley, 2015: Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five U.S. metropolitan areas. Nat. Hazards, 78, 121-140, doi:10.1007 /s11069-015-1704-z.
67. Schaefer, J. T., D. L. Kelly, and R. F. Abbey, 1986: A minimum assumption tornado-hazard probability model. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 25, 1934-1945, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1986)0251934:AMATHP 2.0.CO;2.
68. Shafer, C. M., and C. A. Doswell III, 2010: A multivariate index for ranking and classifying severe weather outbreaks. Electron. J. Severe Storms Meteor., 5 (1). [Available online at http://ejssm.org/ojs/index.php /ejssm/article/viewArticle/62.]
69. Simmons, K. M., and D. Sutter, 2007: Tornado shelters and the housing market. Constr. Manage. Econ., 25, 1119-1126, doi:10.1080/01446190701618299.
70. -, and -, 2011: The Economic and Societal Impact of Tornadoes. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 282 pp.
71. -, -, and R. Pielke Jr., 2013: Normalized tornado damage in the United States: 1950-2011. Environ. Hazards, 12, 132-147, doi:10.1080/17477891.2012 .738642.
72. -, P. Kovacs, and G. A. Kopp, 2015: Tornado damage mitigation: Benefit-cost analysis of enhanced building codes in Oklahoma. Wea. Climate Soc., 7, 169-178, doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00032.1.
73. Smith, A., and J. Matthews, 2015: Quantifying uncertainty and variable sensitivity within the U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disaster cost estimates. Nat. Hazards, 77, 1829-1851, doi:10.1007 /s11069-015-1678-x.
74. Smith, B. T., R. L. Thompson, J. S. Grams, C. Broyles, and H. E. Brooks, 2012: Convective modes for significant severe thunderstorms in the contiguous United States. Part I: Storm classification and climatology. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1114-1135, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-11-00115.1.
75. Strader, S. M., W. Ashley, A. Irizarry, and S. Hall, 2015a: A climatology of tornado intensity assessments. Meteor. Appl., 22, 513-524, doi:10.1002/met.1482.
76. -, -, and J. Walker, 2015b: Changes in volcanic hazard exposure in the Northwest USA from 1940 to 2100. Nat. Hazards, 77, 1365-1392, doi:10.1007 /s11069-015-1658-1.
77. Theobald, D. M., 2005: Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecol. Soc., 10 (1), 32. [Available online at www.ecologyandsociety .org/vol10/iss1/art32/.]
78. Tippett, M. K., 2014: Changing volatility of U.S. annual tornado reports. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 6956-6961, doi:10.1002/2014GL061347.
79. -, A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo, 2012: Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02801, doi:10.1029/2011GL050368.
80. -, J. T. Allen, V. A. Gensini, and H. E. Brooks, 2015: Climate and hazardous convective weather. Curr. Climate Change Rep., 1, 60-73, doi:10.1007/s40641 -015-0006-6.
81. Trapp, R. J., and H. E. Brooks, 2013: Regional characterization of tornado activity. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 654-659, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0173.1.
82. -, B. A. Halvorson, and N. S. Diffenbaugh, 2007b: Telescoping, multimodel approaches to evaluate extreme convective weather under future climates. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D20109, doi:10.1029/2006JD008345.
83. -, E. D. Robinson, M. E. Baldwin, N. S. Diffenbaugh, and B. R. J. Schwedler, 2011: Regional climate of hazardous convective weather through high-resolution dynamical downscaling. Climate Dyn., 37, 677-688, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0826-y.
84. U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010: Housing units, 2010. Accessed 1 May 2015. [Available online at http:// quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/meta/long-HSG030210 .htm.]
85. Verbout, S. M., H. E. Brooks, L. M. Leslie, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Evolution of the U.S. tornado database: 1954-2003. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 86-93, doi:10.1175 /WAF910.1.
86. Visser, H., A. C. Petersen, and W. Ligtvoet, 2014: On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change. Climatic Change, 125, 461-477, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1179-z.
87. Widen, H. M., and Coauthors, 2013: Adjusted tornado probabilities. Electron. J. Severe Storms Meteor., 8 (7). [Available online at http://ejssm.org/ojs/index.php /ejssm/article/view/131.]
88. Wurman, J., C. Alexander, P. Robinson, and Y. Richardson, 2007: Low-level winds in tornadoes and potential catastrophic tornado impacts in urban areas. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 31-46, doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-1-31.