메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 25, Issue 6, 2014, Pages 454-471

Scenarios for future wildfire risk in California: Links between changing demography, land use, climate, and wildfire

Author keywords

Climate; Fire; Risk; Scenario; Spatial; Wildfire; Wildland urban interface; WUI

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DEMOGRAPHY; FUTURE PROSPECT; LAND USE; POPULATION GROWTH; RESIDENT POPULATION; RISK ASSESSMENT; SPATIAL RESOLUTION; VULNERABILITY; WILDFIRE;

EID: 84908258383     PISSN: 11804009     EISSN: 1099095X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/env.2280     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (35)

References (55)
  • 1
    • 0036825760 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: a broad perspective
    • Allen CD, Savage M, Falk DA, Suckling KF, Swetnam TW, et al. 2002. Ecological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: a broad perspective. Ecological Applications 12(5): 1418-1433.
    • (2002) Ecological Applications , vol.12 , Issue.5 , pp. 1418-1433
    • Allen, C.D.1    Savage, M.2    Falk, D.A.3    Suckling, K.F.4    Swetnam, T.W.5
  • 4
    • 0042212684 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Archived 1996 version
    • California Board of Forestry. 1996. California Fire Plan. Archived 1996 version available at: http://cdfdata.fire.ca.gov/fire_er/fpp_planning_cafireplan.
    • (1996) California Fire Plan
  • 5
    • 84908226263 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CAL FIRE jurisdiction fires, acres, dollar damage, and structures destroyed.
    • Accessed October 26, 2011.
    • California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. 2011. CAL FIRE jurisdiction fires, acres, dollar damage, and structures destroyed. Fact sheet. http:// www.fire.ca.gov/communications/downloads/fact_sheets/firestats.pdf. Accessed October 26, 2011.
    • (2011) Fact sheet
  • 6
    • 79953736083 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change scenarios and sea level rise estimates for the California 2009 climate change scenarios assessment
    • California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500-2009-014-F, 64 pages, August 2009.
    • Cayan DR, Tyree M, Dettinger M, Hidalgo H, Das T, Maurer E, Bromirski P, Graham N, Flick R. 2009. Climate change scenarios and sea level rise estimates for the California 2009 climate change scenarios assessment. California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500-2009-014-F, 64 pages, August 2009.
    • (2009)
    • Cayan, D.R.1    Tyree, M.2    Dettinger, M.3    Hidalgo, H.4    Das, T.5    Maurer, E.6    Bromirski, P.7    Graham, N.8    Flick, R.9
  • 11
    • 0036704539 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime
    • Guyette RP, Muzika RM, Dey DC. 2002. Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime. Ecosystems 5: 472-486.
    • (2002) Ecosystems , vol.5 , pp. 472-486
    • Guyette, R.P.1    Muzika, R.M.2    Dey, D.C.3
  • 12
    • 22244470106 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental US
    • Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP. 2005. Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental US. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6(3): 330-336.
    • (2005) Journal of Hydrometeorology , vol.6 , Issue.3 , pp. 330-336
    • Hamlet, A.F.1    Lettenmaier, D.P.2
  • 14
    • 42449139646 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-season climate synchronized historical fires in dry forests (1650-1900)
    • Northern Rockies,U.S.A Ecology
    • Heyerdahl EK, Morgan P, Riser JP. 2008. Multi-season climate synchronized historical fires in dry forests (1650-1900), northern Rockies,U.S.A. Ecology 89: 705-716.
    • (2008) , vol.89 , pp. 705-716
    • Heyerdahl, E.K.1    Morgan, P.2    Riser, J.P.3
  • 15
    • 84855342793 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical analysis of large wildfires.
    • Chapter 4 Economics of Forest Disturbance: Wildfires, Storms, and Pests, TP Holmes, JP Prestemon, KL Abt (eds). Forestry Sciences, XIV. Springer: Dordrecht, The Netherlands
    • Holmes TP, Hugget RJ, Westerling AL. 2008. Statistical analysis of large wildfires. Chapter 4 Economics of Forest Disturbance: Wildfires, Storms, and Pests, Vol 79, TP Holmes, JP Prestemon, KL Abt (eds). Forestry Sciences, XIV. Springer: Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 422. ISBN: 978-1-4020-4369-7.
    • (2008) , vol.79 , pp. 422
    • Holmes, T.P.1    Hugget, R.J.2    Westerling, A.L.3
  • 16
    • 84894234951 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100
    • Hurteau MD, Westerling AL, Wiedinmyer C, Bryant BP. 2014. Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100. Environmental Science and Technology 48(4): 2298-2304, DOI: 10.1021/es4050133.
    • (2014) Environmental Science and Technology , vol.48 , Issue.4 , pp. 2298-2304
    • Hurteau, M.D.1    Westerling, A.L.2    Wiedinmyer, C.3    Bryant, B.P.4
  • 20
    • 4043114494 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of past, present, and future fire regimes on North American mediterranean shrublands
    • Veblen TT, Baker WL, Montenegro G, Swetnam TW (eds). Springer-Verlag: New York
    • Keeley JE, Fotheringham CJ. 2003. Impact of past, present, and future fire regimes on North American mediterranean shrublands. In Fire and climatic change in temperate ecosystems of the western Americas, Veblen TT, Baker WL, Montenegro G, Swetnam TW (eds). Springer-Verlag: New York; 218-262.
    • (2003) Fire and climatic change in temperate ecosystems of the western Americas , pp. 218-262
    • Keeley, J.E.1    Fotheringham, C.J.2
  • 21
    • 0030812880 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature
    • Kimball JS, Running SW, Nemani R. 1997. An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 85: 87-98.
    • (1997) Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , vol.85 , pp. 87-98
    • Kimball, J.S.1    Running, S.W.2    Nemani, R.3
  • 22
    • 65249122534 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global Pyrogeography: The Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire
    • Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Van Dorn J, Hayhoe K. 2009. Global Pyrogeography: The Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLoS ONE 4(4):e5102, DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102.
    • (2009) PLoS ONE , vol.4 , Issue.4 , pp. e5102
    • Krawchuk, M.A.1    Moritz, M.A.2    Parisien, M.-A.3    van Dorn, J.4    Hayhoe, K.5
  • 23
    • 79955545121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient
    • Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA. 2011. Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient. Ecology 92: 121-132.
    • (2011) Ecology , vol.92 , pp. 121-132
    • Krawchuk, M.A.1    Moritz, M.A.2
  • 24
    • 1642344724 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California
    • Lenihan JM. Drapek R, Bachelet D, Neilson RP. 2003. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California. Ecological Applications 13: 1667-1681, DOI:10.1890/025295.
    • (2003) Ecological Applications , vol.13 , pp. 1667-1681
    • Lenihan, J.M.1    Drapek, R.2    Bachelet, D.3    Neilson, R.P.4
  • 25
    • 0028602239 scopus 로고
    • A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models
    • Liang X, Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Burges SJ. 1994. A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. Journal of Geophysical Research 99(D7): 14,415-14,428.
    • (1994) Journal of Geophysical Research , vol.99 , Issue.D7 , pp. 14415-14428
    • Liang, X.1    Lettenmaier, D.P.2    Wood, E.F.3    Burges, S.J.4
  • 26
    • 66149164353 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate and ecoprovince fire area burned in western U.S. Ecoprovinces 1916-2003.
    • Littell, JS, McKenzie D, Peterson DL, Westerling AL. 2009. Climate and ecoprovince fire area burned in western U.S. Ecoprovinces 1916-2003. Ecological Applications 19(4): 1003-1021.
    • (2009) Ecological Applications , vol.19 , Issue.4 , pp. 1003-1021
    • Littell, J.S.1    McKenzie, D.2    Peterson, D.L.3    Westerling, A.L.4
  • 27
    • 0037113274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A long-term hydrologically-based data set of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States
    • Maurer EP, Wood AW, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP, Nijssen B. 2002. A long-term hydrologically-based data set of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. Journal of Climate 15: 3237-3251.
    • (2002) Journal of Climate , vol.15 , pp. 3237-3251
    • Maurer, E.P.1    Wood, A.W.2    Adam, J.C.3    Lettenmaier, D.P.4    Nijssen, B.5
  • 28
    • 77954224193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The utility of daily large-scale climate data in the assessment of climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California
    • Maurer EP, Hidalgo HG, Das T, Dettinger MD, Cayan DR. 2010. The utility of daily large-scale climate data in the assessment of climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14: 1125-1138.
    • (2010) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences , vol.14 , pp. 1125-1138
    • Maurer, E.P.1    Hidalgo, H.G.2    Das, T.3    Dettinger, M.D.4    Cayan, D.R.5
  • 29
    • 58849125704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantitative evidence for increasing forest fire severity in the Sierra Nevada and southern cascade mountains
    • California and Nevada, USA Ecosystems
    • Miller JD, Safford HD, Crimmins M, Thode AE. 2009. Quantitative evidence for increasing forest fire severity in the Sierra Nevada and southern cascade mountains, California and Nevada, USA. Ecosystems 12: 16-32.
    • (2009) , vol.12 , pp. 16-32
    • Miller, J.D.1    Safford, H.D.2    Crimmins, M.3    Thode, A.E.4
  • 30
    • 18544397365 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The multi-institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and partners in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system
    • Mitchell KE et al. 2004. The multi-institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and partners in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: D07S90, DOI:10.1029/2003JD003823.
    • (2004) Journal of Geophysical Research , vol.109 , pp. D07S90
    • Mitchell, K.E.1
  • 32
    • 42449136241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-season climate synchronized forest fires throughout the 20th century
    • Morgan P, Heyerdahl EK, Gibson CE. 2008. Multi-season climate synchronized forest fires throughout the 20th century, northern Rockies, U.S.A. Ecology 89: 717-728.
    • (2008) Northern Rockies, U.S.AEcology , vol.89 , pp. 717-728
    • Morgan, P.1    Heyerdahl, E.K.2    Gibson, C.E.3
  • 34
    • 84957790817 scopus 로고
    • Natural evaporation from open-water, bare soil, and grass
    • Penman HL. 1948. Natural evaporation from open-water, bare soil, and grass. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A193(1032): 120-146.
    • (1948) Proceedings of the Royal Society of London , vol.193 A , Issue.1032 , pp. 120-146
    • Penman, H.L.1
  • 35
    • 84879071168 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future humidity trends over the western United States in global climate models and the variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system
    • Pierce DW, Westerling AL, Oyler J. 2013. Future humidity trends over the western United States in global climate models and the variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17(5): 1833-1850.
    • (2013) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences , vol.17 , Issue.5 , pp. 1833-1850
    • Pierce, D.W.1    Westerling, A.L.2    Oyler, J.3
  • 36
    • 34548203181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical model for forecasting monthly large wildfire events in the Western United States
    • Preisler HK, Westerling AL. 2007. Statistical model for forecasting monthly large wildfire events in the Western United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46: 1020-1030.
    • (2007) Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology , vol.46 , pp. 1020-1030
    • Preisler, H.K.1    Westerling, A.L.2
  • 40
    • 34948855458 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California's forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands
    • Stephens SL, Martin RE, Clinton NE. 2007. Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California's forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands. Forest Ecology and Management 251: 205-216.
    • (2007) Forest Ecology and Management , vol.251 , pp. 205-216
    • Stephens, S.L.1    Martin, R.E.2    Clinton, N.E.3
  • 42
    • 77649294520 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strategic Issues Panel on Fire Suppression Costs. (April 20, 2007)
    • Strategic Issues Panel on Fire Suppression Costs. 2004. Large fire suppression costs-strategies for cost management. Available at (April 20, 2007): http:// www.fireplan.gov/ resources/2004.html.
    • (2004) Large fire suppression costs-strategies for cost management
  • 43
    • 0024880320 scopus 로고
    • Do one percent of the forest fires cause ninety-nine percent of the damage?
    • Strauss D, Bednar L, Mees R. 1989. Do one percent of the forest fires cause ninety-nine percent of the damage? Forest Science 35: 319-328.
    • (1989) Forest Science , vol.35 , pp. 319-328
    • Strauss, D.1    Bednar, L.2    Mees, R.3
  • 44
    • 77949645934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-millennial fire history of the giant forest
    • Sequoia national park, California, USA Fire Ecology
    • Swetnam TW, Baisan CH, Caprio AC, Brown PM, Touchan R, Anderson RS, Hallett DJ. 2009. Multi-millennial fire history of the giant forest, sequoia national park, California, USA. Fire Ecology 5(3): 120-150, DOI: 10.4996/fireecology.0503120.
    • (2009) , vol.5 , Issue.3 , pp. 120-150
    • Swetnam, T.W.1    Baisan, C.H.2    Caprio, A.C.3    Brown, P.M.4    Touchan, R.5    Anderson, R.S.6    Hallett, D.J.7
  • 46
    • 27444446443 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020
    • Theobald D. 2005. Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecology and Society 10(1): 32.
    • (2005) Ecology and Society , vol.10 , Issue.1 , pp. 32
    • Theobald, D.1
  • 47
    • 84878752608 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Urban growth in California: projecting growth in California (2000-2050) under six alternative policy scenarios and assessing impacts to future dispersal corridors, fire threats, and climate-sensitive agriculture
    • California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC- 500-2012-009.
    • Thorne J, Bjorkman J, Roth N. 2012. Urban growth in California: projecting growth in California (2000-2050) under six alternative policy scenarios and assessing impacts to future dispersal corridors, fire threats, and climate-sensitive agriculture. California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC- 500-2012-009.
    • (2012)
    • Thorne, J.1    Bjorkman, J.2    Roth, N.3
  • 48
    • 0033594096 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation
    • Thornton PE. Running SW. 1999. An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 93: 211-228.
    • (1999) Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , vol.93 , pp. 211-228
    • Thornton, P.E.1    Running, S.W.2
  • 49
    • 0012213629 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of continental scale digital elevation models and extraction of hydrographic features
    • Santa Fe, New Mexico, January 21-26, 1996. National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis: Santa Barbara, California.
    • Verdin KL, Greenlee SK. 1996. Development of continental scale digital elevation models and extraction of hydrographic features. In Proceedings, Third International Conference/Workshop on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling, Santa Fe, New Mexico, January 21-26, 1996. National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis: Santa Barbara, California.
    • (1996) Proceedings, Third International Conference/Workshop on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling
    • Verdin, K.L.1    Greenlee, S.K.2
  • 50
    • 84908248705 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wildfires. Chapter 8 in Climate Change Science and Policy
    • Schneider SH, Mastrandrea MD, Rosencranz A, Kuntz-Duriseti K (eds). Island Press: Washington, DC, USA.
    • Westerling AL. 2010. Wildfires. Chapter 8 in Climate Change Science and Policy, Schneider SH, Mastrandrea MD, Rosencranz A, Kuntz-Duriseti K (eds). Island Press: Washington, DC, USA.
    • (2010)
    • Westerling, A.L.1
  • 51
    • 58149135583 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and wildfire in California
    • Westerling AL, Bryant BP. 2008. Climate change and wildfire in California. Climatic Change 87: s231-249, DOI:10.1007/s10584-007-9363-z.
    • (2008) Climatic Change , vol.87 , pp. s231-s249
    • Westerling, A.L.1    Bryant, B.P.2
  • 53
    • 33747586378 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Warming and earlier spring increases western U.S. Forest wildfire activity.
    • Westerling AL, Hidalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increases western U.S. Forest wildfire activity. Science 313: 940-943, DOI:10.1126/science.1128834.
    • (2006) Science , vol.313 , pp. 940-943
    • Westerling, A.L.1    Hidalgo, H.G.2    Cayan, D.R.3    Swetnam, T.W.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.