Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volumn 82, Issue , 2016, Pages 7-20

  Mallampalli, Varun Rao ^a   Mavrommati, Georgia ^b   Thompson, Jonathan ^c   Duveneck, Matthew ^c   Meyer, Spencer ^d   Ligmann Zielinska, Arika ^e   Druschke, Caroline Gottschalk ^f   Hychka, Kristen ^f   Kenney, Melissa A ^g   Kok, Kasper ^h   Borsuk, Mark E ^a  

^a DARTMOUTH COLLEGE   (United States)

^b DARTMOUTH COLLEGE   (United States)

^c HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d YALE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^e MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND   (United States)

^g UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^h WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Agent based model; Bayesian network; Fuzzy cognitive map; Participatory process; Socio ecological scenarios; System dynamics

Indexed keywords

AUTONOMOUS AGENTS; BAYESIAN NETWORKS; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTATIONAL METHODS; ECOLOGY; ECONOMICS;

AGENT-BASED MODEL; FUZZY COGNITIVE MAP; PARTICIPATORY PROCESS; SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL; SYSTEM DYNAMICS;

LAND USE;

EID: 84973160974     PISSN: 13648152     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.011     Document Type: Article

References (89)

1. Aalders I. Modeling land-use decision behavior with Bayesian belief networks. Ecol. Soc. 2008, 13(1):16.
2. Abildtrup J., Audsley E., Fekete-Farkas M., Giupponi C., Gylling M., Rosato P., Rounsevell M. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach. Environ. Sci. Policy 2006, 9(2):101-115.
3. Ahlqvist O. A parameterized representation of uncertain conceptual spaces. Trans. GIS 2004, 8(4):493-514.
4. Alcamo J. The SAS approach: combining qualitative and quantitative knowledge in environmental scenarios. Environmetal Futures. The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis 2009, 123-150. Elsevier. A. Joseph (Ed.).
5. Alcamo J., Acosta-Michlik L., Carius A., Eierdanz F., Klein R., Krömker D., Tänzler D. A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought. Reg. Environ. Change 2008, 8(4):137-149.
6. Barnaud C., Van Paassen A., Trebuil G., Promburom T., Bousquet F. Dealing with power games in a companion modelling process: lessons from community water management in Thailand highlands. J. Agric. Educ. Ext. 2010, 16(1):55-74.
7. Barreteau O., Antona M., d'Aquino P., Aubert S., Boissau S., Bousquet F., Daré W., Etienne M., Le Page C., Mathevet R. Our companion modelling approach. J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 2003, 6(2):1.
8. Barreteau O., Bousquet F., Attonaty J.-M. Role-playing games for opening the black box of multi-agent systems: method and lessons of its application to Senegal river Valley irrigated systems. J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 2001, 4(2):5.
9. Barton D.N., Kuikka S., Varis O., Uusitalo L., Henriksen H.J., Borsuk M., de la Hera A., Farmani R., Johnson S., Linnell J.D. Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management. Integr. Environ. Assess. Manag. 2012, 8(3):418-429.
10. Becu N., Neef A., Schreinemachers P., Sangkapitux C. Participatory computer simulation to support collective decision-making: potential and limits of stakeholder involvement. Land Use Policy 2008, 25(4):498-509.
11. Borsuk M.E., Stow C.A., Reckhow K.H. A Bayesian network of eutrophication models for synthesis, prediction, and uncertainty analysis. Ecol. Model. 2004, 173(2):219-239.
12. Bousquet F., Barreteau O., Le Page C., Mullon C., Weber J. An environmental modelling approach: the use of multi-agent simulations. Advances in Environmental and Ecological Modelling 1999, 113-122. Elsevier, Paris. F. Blasco, A. Weil (Eds.).
13. Campbell D.J., Palutikof J. Allocation of Land Resources in Semi-arid Areas: a Simulation Based on the East African Experience 1978, Discussion Paper 262, Institute for Development Studies, University of Nairobi, Nairobi.
14. Carpenter S.R., Booth E.G., Gillon S., Kucharik C.J., Loheide S., Mase A.S., Motew M., Qiu J., Rissman A.R., Seifert J. Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin. USA. Ecol. Soc. 2015, 20(2):10.
15. Cash D., Clark W.C., Alcock F., Dickson N.M., Eckley N., Jäger J. Salience, Credibility, Legitimacy and Boundaries: Linking Research, Assessment and Decision Making 2002, Harvard University.
16. Castella J.-C., Kam S.P., Quang D.D., Verburg P.H., Hoanh C.T. Combining top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches of land use/cover change to support public policies: application to sustainable management of natural resources in northern Vietnam. Land Use Policy 2007, 24(3):531-545.
17. Castella J.-C., Trung T.N., Boissau S. Participatory simulation of land-use changes in the northern mountains of Vietnam: the combined use of an agent-based model, a role-playing game, and a geographic information system. Ecol. Soc. 2005, 10(1):27.
18. Commere R. Le développement local en milieu rural 1989, 221. Université de Saint.
19. Cornelissen A., Van den Berg J., Koops W., Grossman M., Udo H. Assessment of the contribution of sustainability indicators to sustainable development: a novel approach using fuzzy set theory. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2001, 86(2):173-185.
20. D'Aquino P., Barreteau O., Etienne M., Boissau S., Aubert S., Bousquet F., Le Page C., Daré W. The Role Playing Games in an ABM participatory modeling process: outcomes from five different experiments carried out in the last five years, Integrated assessment and decision support. 1st Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society 2002, 24-27. iEMSs, Lugano, Switzerland.
21. D'Aquino P., Le Page C., Bousquet F., Bah A. Using self-designed role-playing games and a multi-agent system to empower a local decision-making process for land use management: the SelfCormas experiment in Senegal. J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 2003, 6(3).
22. Diniz F.H., Kok K., Hoogstra-Klein M.A., Arts B. Mapping future changes in livelihood security and environmental sustainability based on perceptions of small farmers in the Brazilian Amazon. Ecol. Soc. 2015, 20(2):26.
23. Dubrovsky M., Simon K., Stuch B., Kok K., Harrison P. Report on the European Driving Force Database for Use in the Integrated Assessment Platform, the CLIMSAVE Project Climate Change Integrated Assessment Methodology for Cross-sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe 2011.
24. Dumrongrojwatthana P., Le Page C., Gajaseni N., Trébuil G. Co-constructing an agent-based model to mediate land use conflict between herders and foresters in northern Thailand. J. Land Use Sci. 2011, 6(2-3):101-120.
25. Dung L., Hoanh C.T., Le Page C., Bousquet F., Gajaseni N. Facilitating dialogue between aquaculture and agriculture: lessons from role-playing games with farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Water Policy 2009, 11:80-93.
26. Etienne M., Du Toit D.R., Pollard S. ARDI: a co-construction method for participatory modeling in natural resources management. Ecol. Soc. 2011, 16(1):44.
27. Ford F.A. Modeling the Environment: an Introduction to System Dynamics Models of Environmental Systems 1999, Island Press, Washington, DC.
28. Gerst M., Wang P., Borsuk M. Discovering plausible energy and economic futures under global change using multidimensional scenario discovery. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 44:76-86.
29. Geyer-Schulz A. Fuzzy Rule-based Expert Systems and Genetic Machine Learning 1995, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg.
30. Goguen J.A. The logic of inexact concepts. Synthese 1969, 19(3):325-373.
31. Gray S.A., Gray S., De Kok J.L., Helfgott A.E., O'Dwyer B., Jordan R., Nyaki A., Analyzing F. Using fuzzy cognitive mapping as a participatory approach to analyze change, preferred states, and perceived resilience of social-ecological systems. Ecol. Soc. 2015, 20(2):11.
32. Houet T., Aguejdad R., Doukari O., Battaia G., Clarke K. Description and Validation of a "non Path-dependent" Model for Projecting Contrasting Urban Growth Futures 2016, European Journal of Geography, Cybergeo.
33. Janssen M.A. Agent-based modelling. Model. Ecol. Econ. 2005, 1:155-172.
34. Jensen F.V. Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs. Statistics for Engineering and Information Science 2001, Springer, Verlag New York. 2 ed.
35. Jetter A.J., Kok K. Fuzzy cognitive maps for futures studies-A methodological assessment of concepts and methods. Futures 2014, 61:45-57.
36. Kelly R.A., Jakeman A.J., Barreteau O., Borsuk M.E., ElSawah S., Hamilton S.H., Henriksen H.J., Kuikka S., Maier H.R., Rizzoli A.E. Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management. Environ. Model. Softw. 2013, 47:159-181.
37. Kemp-Benedict E. Converting qualitative assessments to quantitative assumptions: Bayes' rule and the pundit's wager. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2010, 77(1):167-171.
38. Kemp-Benedict E. Going from Narrative to Number: Indicator-driven Scenario Quantification, Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies 2013, 123-131. Springer, New York.
39. Kok K. The potential of fuzzy cognitive maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil. Glob. Environ. Change 2009, 19(1):122-133.
40. Kok K., Bärlund I., Flörke M., Holman I., Gramberger M., Sendzimir J., Stuch B., Zellmer K. European participatory scenario development: strengthening the link between stories and models. Clim. Change 2015, 128(3-4):187-200.
41. Kosko B. Fuzzy cognitive maps. Int. J. Man Mach. Stud. 1986, 24(1):65-75.
42. Lamarque P., Artaux A., Barnaud C., Dobremez L., Nettier B., Lavorel S. Taking into account farmers' decision making to map fine-scale land management adaptation to climate and socio-economic scenarios. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2013, 119:147-157.
43. Le Page C., Naivinit W., Trébuil G., Gajaseni N. Companion Modelling with Rice Farmers to Characterise and Parameterise an Agent-based Model on the Land/water Use and Labour Migration in Northeast Thailand, Empirical Agent-based Modelling-challenges and Solutions 2014, 207-221. Springer.
44. Ligmann-Zielinska A., Jankowski P. Agent-based models as laboratories for spatially explicit planning policies. Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des. 2007, 34(2):316-335.
45. Lucieer A., Kraak M.-J. Interactive and visual fuzzy classification of remotely sensed imagery for exploration of uncertainty. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 2004, 18(5):491-512.
46. Marcot B.G., Holthausen R.S., Raphael M.G., Rowland M.M., Wisdom M.J. Using Bayesian belief networks to evaluate fish and wildlife population viability under land management alternatives from an environmental impact statement. For. Ecol. Manag. 2001, 153(1):29-42.
47. Marcot B.G., Steventon J.D., Sutherland G.D., McCann R.K. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation. Can. J. For. Res. 2006, 36(12):3063-3074.
48. Martin G., Felten B., Duru M. Forage rummy: a game to support the participatory design of adapted livestock systems. Environ. Model. Softw. 2011, 26(12):1442-1453.
49. Mavrommati G., Baustian M., Dreelin E. Coupling socioeconomic and lake systems for sustainability: a conceptual analysis using lake St. Clair region as a case study. AMBIO 2014, 43(3):275-287.
50. McDaniels T., Mills T., Gregory R., Ohlson D. Using expert judgments to explore robust alternatives for forest management under climate change. Risk Anal. 2012, 32:2098-2112.
51. Meadows D., Fiddaman T., Shannon D. Fish Banks. Institute for Policy and Social Science Research 1989, University of New Hampshire, Durham.
52. Meyer S.R., Johnson M.L., Lilieholm R.J., Cronan C.S. Development of a stakeholder-driven spatial modeling framework for strategic landscape planning using Bayesian networks across two urban-rural gradients in Maine, USA. Ecol. Model. 2014, 291:42-57.
53. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystems and Human Well-being: a Framework for Assessment, Millenium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems and Human Well-being 2003, 266. World Resources Institute, Washington.
54. Morgan M.G., Henrion M., Small M. Uncertainty: a Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis 1992, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
55. Naivinit W., Le Page C., Trébuil G., Gajaseni N. Participatory agent-based modeling and simulation of rice production and labor migrations in Northeast Thailand. Environ. Model. Softw. 2010, 25(11):1345-1358.
56. Nakicenovic N., Swart R. Special report on emissions scenarios 2000, 612. Cambridge University Press. 1, Cambridge, UK. N. Nakicenovic, R. Swart (Eds.).
57. Onigkeit J., Lübkert B., Alcamo J. Quantitative Model Drivers for the GLOWA Jordan River Scenarios 2007, 3. Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kurt-Wolters Strasse.
58. Pak M.V., Brieva D.C. Designing and implementing a role-playing game: a tool to explain factors, decision making and landscape transformation. Environ. Model. Softw. 2010, 25(11):1322-1333.
59. Parker D.C., Berger T., Manson S.M., Use L. Agent-based Models of Land-use and Land-cover Change: Report and Review of an International Workshop, October 4-7, 2001 2002, LUCC Focus 1 Office, Irvine, California, USA.
60. Parker D.C., Entwisle B., Rindfuss R.R., Vanwey L.K., Manson S.M., Moran E., An L., Deadman P., Evans T.P., Linderman M. Case studies, cross-site comparisons, and the challenge of generalization: comparing agent-based models of land-use change in frontier regions. J. Land Use Sci. 2008, 3(1):41-72.
61. Parker D.C., Manson S.M., Janssen M.A., Hoffmann M.J., Deadman P. Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 2003, 93(2):314-337.
62. Patel M., Kok K., Rothman D.S. Participatory scenario construction in land use analysis: an insight into the experiences created by stakeholder involvement in the Northern Mediterranean. Land Use Policy 2007, 24(3):546-561.
63. Pearl J. Bayesian networks: a model of self-activated memory for evidential reasoning. 7th Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Computer Science Department 1985, University of California, Irvine, 329-324.
64. Promper C., Puissant A., Malet J.-P., Glade T. Analysis of land cover changes in the past and the future as contribution to landslide risk scenarios. Appl. Geogr. 2014, 53:11-19.
65. Rosato P., Giupponi C. What future for Mediterranean agriculture? A proposal to integrate socio-economics in climate change scenarios, Climate Change in the Mediterranean. Socio-economic Perspectives of Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation 2003, 133-158. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, Cheltenham, UK.
66. Saaty T.L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resources Allocation 1980, Mcgraw-Hill McLean, Virginia.
67. Saaty T.L., Rogers P.C. Higher education in the United States (1985-2000): scenario construction using a hierarchical framework with eigenvector weighting. Socio Econ. Plan. Sci. 1976, 10(6):251-263.
68. Sayer J., Sunderland T., Ghazoul J., Pfund J.-L., Sheil D., Meijaard E., Venter M., Boedhihartono A.K., Day M., Garcia C. Ten principles for a landscape approach to reconciling agriculture, conservation, and other competing land uses. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2013, 110(21):8349-8356.
69. Schmitt Olabisi L.K., Kapuscinski A.R., Johnson K.A., Reich P.B., Stenquist B., Draeger K.J. Using scenario visioning and participatory system dynamics modeling to investigate the future: lessons from Minnesota 2050. Sustainability 2010, 2(8):2686-2706.
70. Seppelt R., Dormann C.F., Eppink F.V., Lautenbach S., Schmidt S. A quantitative review of ecosystem service studies: approaches, shortcomings and the road ahead. J. Appl. Ecol. 2011, 48(3):630-636.
71. Shaftel F.R., Shaftel G.A. Role-playing for Social Values 1967, John Wiley, New York.
72. Sleeter B.M., Sohl T.L., Bouchard M.A., Reker R.R., Soulard C.E., Acevedo W., Griffith G.E., Sleeter R.R., Auch R.F., Sayler K.L. Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales. Glob. Environ. Change 2012, 22(4):896-914.
73. Sohl T.L., Sayler K.L., Bouchard M.A., Reker R.R., Friesz A.M., Bennett S.L., Sleeter B.M., Sleeter R.R., Wilson T., Soulard C. Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States. Ecol. Appl. 2014, 24(5):1015-1036.
74. Souchère V., Millair L., Echeverria J., Bousquet F., Le Page C., Etienne M. Co-constructing with stakeholders a role-playing game to initiate collective management of erosive runoff risks at the watershed scale. Environ. Model. Softw. 2010, 25(11):1359-1370.
75. Sterman J.D. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World 2000, McGraw-Hill, Irwin, Boston.
76. Sterman J.D. Sustaining Sustainability: Creating a Systems Science in a Fragmented Academy and Polarized World, Sustainability Science 2012, 21-58. Springer, New York.
77. Strager M.P., Rosenberger R.S. Incorporating stakeholder preferences for land conservation: weights and measures in spatial MCA. Ecol. Econ. 2006, 58(1):79-92.
78. Swart R.J., Raskin P., Robinson J. The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Glob. Environ. Change 2004, 14(2):137-146.
79. Thompson J.R., Wiek A., Swanson F.J., Carpenter S.R., Fresco N., Hollingsworth T., Spies T.A., Foster D.R. Scenario studies as a synthetic and integrative research activity for long-term ecological research. BioScience 2012, 62(4):367-376.
80. Uusitalo L. Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. Ecol. Model. 2007, 203(3):312-318.
81. van Vliet M., Kok K., Veldkamp T. Linking stakeholders and modellers in scenario studies: the use of fuzzy cognitive maps as a communication and learning tool. Futures 2010, 42(1):1-14.
82. Verburg P.H., Overmars K.P. Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landsc. Ecol. 2009, 24(9):1167-1181.
83. Voinov A., Bousquet F. Modelling with stakeholders. Environ. Model. Softw. 2010, 25(11):1268-1281.
84. Volkery A., Ribeiro T., Henrichs T., Hoogeveen Y. Your vision or my model? Lessons from participatory land use scenario development on a European scale. Syst. Pract. Action Res. 2008, 21(6):459-477.
85. Washington-Ottombre C., Pijanowski B., Campbell D., Olson J., Maitima J., Musili A., Kibaki T., Kaburu H., Hayombe P., Owango E. Using a role-playing game to inform the development of land-use models for the study of a complex socio-ecological system. Agric. Syst. 2010, 103(3):117-126.
86. Welp M., de la Vega-Leinert A., Stoll-Kleemann S., Jaeger C.C. Science-based stakeholder dialogues: theories and tools. Glob. Environ. Change 2006, 16(2):170-181.
87. Yu W., Zang S., Wu C., Liu W., Na X. Analyzing and modeling land use land cover change (LUCC) in the Daqing City, China. Appl. Geogr. 2011, 31(2):600-608.
88. Zadeh L.A. Fuzzy sets. Inf. Control 1965, 8(3):338-353.
89. Zimmermann H.J. Fuzzy set theory. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Comput. Stat. 2010, 2(3):317-332.