Sustaining sustainability: Creating a systems science in a fragmented academy and polarized world

Sustainability Science: The Emerging Paradigm and the Urban Environment

Volumn , Issue , 2011, Pages 21-58

  Sterman, John D ^a  

^a MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

Ecological footprint; Limits to growth; Mental models; Overconsumption; Sustainability; System dynamics

Indexed keywords

EID: 84929570696     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4614-3188-6_2     Document Type: Chapter

References (81)

1. Adelman MA (1993) The economics of petroleum supply. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
2. Alley R, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W et al (2003) Abrupt climate change. Science 299:2005-2010
3. Axelrod R (1976) The structure of decision: the cognitive maps of political elites. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
4. Bahn P, Flenley J (1992) Easter Island, Earth Island. Thames and Hudson, London, UK
5. Bäumer D, Vogel B (2007) An unexpected pattern of distinct weekly periodicities in climatological variables in Germany. Geophy Res Lett 34:L03819
6. Booth Sweeney L, Sterman JD (2000) Bathtub dynamics: initial results of a systems thinking inventory. System Dyn Rev 16:249-294
7. Booth Sweeney L, Sterman JD (2007) Thinking about systems: students' and their teachers' conceptions of natural and social systems. System Dyn Rev 23:285-312
8. Buehler R, Griffin D, Ross M (2002) Inside the planning fallacy: the causes and consequences of optimistic rime predictions. In: Gilovich T, Griffin D, Kahneman D (eds) Heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
9. Cerveny R, Balling R (1998) Weekly cycles of air pollutants, precipitation, and tropical cyclones in the coastal NW Atlantic region. Nature 394:561-563
10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. http://www.ipcc.ch
11. Cronin M, Gonzalez C, Sterman J (2009) Why don't well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens. Organ Behav Hum Decis Proc 108:116-130
12. Daly H (1991) Steady-state economics, 2nd edn. Island Press, Washington, DC
13. Daly H, Townsend K (1993) Valuing the earth: economics, ecology, ethics. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
14. DeGraaf J, Wann D, Naylor T (2005) Affluenza: the all-consuming epidemic, 2nd edn. Berrett-Kohler, San Francisco, CA
15. Diamond J (2005) Collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed. Viking, New York, NY
16. Dörner D (1980) On the difficulties people have in dealing with complexity. Simulations Games 11:87-106
17. Dörner D (1996) The logic of failure. Metropolitan Books/Henry Holt, New York, NY
18. FAO (2008) The state of worldfisheries and aquaculture 2008. UN Food Agric Organ, Rome
19. Faro D, McGill A, Hastie R (2010) Naïve theories of causal force and compression of elapsed time judgments. J Pers Soc Psychol 98:683-701
20. Festinger L (1957) A theory of cognitive dissonance. Row, Peterson, Evanston, IL
21. Fiddaman T (2002) Exploring policy options with a behavioral climate-economy model. System Dyn Rev 18:243-267
22. Fong I, Drlica K (2003) Reemergence of established pathogens in the 21st century. Kluwer/Plenum, New York, NY
23. Forrester JW (1969) Urban dynamics. Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA
24. Forrester JW (1971a) Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technol Rev 73:52-68
25. Forrester JW (1971b) World dynamics. Pegasus Communications, Waltham, MA
26. Forster P, Solomon S (2003) Observations of a 'weekend effect' in diurnal temperature range. PNAS 100:11225-11230
27. Hardin G (1968) The tragedy of the commons. Science 162:1243-1248
28. Hoffman M, Hilton-Taylor C, Angulo A et al (2010) The impact of conservation on the status of the world's vertebrates. Science 300:1503-1509
29. Horn S, Sharkey P, Tracy D et al (1996) Intended and unintended consequences of HMO costcontainment strategies: results from the managed care outcomes project. Am J Manag Care 2:253-264
30. Huxley T (1883) Inaugural address. Fisheries exhibition, London http://aleph0.clarku.edu/huxley/SM5/fish.html
31. Kahneman D, Diener E, Schwarz N (1999) Well-being: the foundations of hedonic psychology. Russell Sage, New York, NY
32. Kirch P (1997) Microcosmic histories: island perspectives on 'global' change. Am Anthropol 99:30-42
33. Kurlansky M (1997) Cod: a biography of thefish that changed the world. Penguin, New York, NY
34. Laux P, Kunstmann H (2008) Detection of regional weekly weather cycles across Europe. Environ Res Lett 3:044005
35. Layard R (2005) Happiness: lessons from a new science. Penguin Press, New York, NY
36. McKibben B (2010) Earth. Times Books/Henry Holt, New York, NY
37. Meadows D, Randers J, Meadows D (2004) The limits to growth: the thirty year update. Chelsea
38. Green, White River Junction, VT Meehl GA, Washington WM, Collins WD et al (2005) How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science 307:1769-1772
39. Moxnes E (2000) Not only the tragedy of the commons: misperceptions of feedback and policies for sustainable development. System Dyn Rev 16:325-348
40. National Research Council (2010) Hidden costs of energy: unpriced consequences of energy production and use. National Academies Press, Washington, DC
41. Nordhaus W (1992) An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Science 258:1315-1319
42. O'Neill B, Oppenheimer M (2002) Dangerous climate impacts and the Kyoto protocol. Science 296:1971-1972
43. Ostrom E (2010) Beyond markets and states: polycentric governance of complex economic systems. Am Econ Rev 100:641-672
44. Palumbi S (2001) Humans as the world's greatest evolutionary force. Science 293:1786-1790
45. Pauly D (1995) Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome offisheries. Trends Ecol Evol 10:430
46. Pereira H, Leadeley P, Proenca V et al (2010) Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science 330:1496-1500
47. Plous S (1993) The psychology of judgment and decision making. McGraw Hill, New York, NY
48. Princen T, Maniates M, Conca K (2002) Confronting consumption. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
49. Repenning N, Sterman J (2001) Nobody ever gets credit forfixing problems that never happened: creating and sustaining process improvement. California Management Review 43(4):64-88.
50. Rockström J et al (2009) A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461:472-475
51. Rosenberg A, Bolster W, Alexander K et al (2004) The history of ocean resources: modeling cod biomass using historical records. Frontiers Ecol Environ 3:84-90
52. Rosenthal R, Jacobson L (1968) Pygmalion in the classroom: teacher expectation and pupil's intellectual development, Expanded edn. Irvington Publishers/Ardent Media, Norwalk, CT
53. Schor J (2010) Plenitude: The new economics of true wealth. New York: Penguin.
54. Senge P, Smith B, Schley S, Laur J (2008) The necessary revolution. Doubleday, New York, NY
55. Simon J (1996) The ultimate resource 2. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
56. Solomon S, Plattner G-K, Knutti R, Friedlingstein P (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. PNAS 106:1704-1709
57. Stachowicz J, Terwin J, Whitlatch R, Osman R (2002) Linking climate change and biological invasions: ocean warming facilitates nonindigenous species invasions. PNAS 99:15497-15500
58. Steadman D (1995) Prehistoric extinctions of Pacific island birds: biodiversity meets zooarchaeology. Science 267:1123-1131
59. Sterman JD (1989) Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment. Manag Sci 35:321-339
60. Sterman JD (1994) Learning in and about complex systems. System Dyn Rev 10:291-330
61. Sterman JD (2000) Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, New York, NY
62. Sterman JD (2002) All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist. System Dyn Rev 18:501-531
63. Sterman JD (2008) Risk communication on climate: mental models and mass balance. Science 322:532-533
64. Sterman JD (2010) Does formal system dynamics training improve people's understanding of accumulation? System Dyn Rev 26:316-334
65. Sterman JD, Booth Sweeney L (2007) Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults' mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter. Clim Change 80:213-238
66. Suzuki D (2007) The sacred balance: rediscovering our place in nature, 3rd edn. Greystone Books, New York, NY
67. Tengs T, Ahma S, Savage J et al (2005) The AMA proposal to mandate nicotine reduction in cigarettes: a simulation of the population health impacts. Prevent Med 40:170-180
68. Thomas C, Cameron A, Green R et al (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145-148
69. United Nations (2011) World population prospects: the 2010 revision. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.html. Accessed 29 March 2012
70. US Forest Service (2003) Influence of forest structure on wildfire behavior and the severity of its effects. http://www.fs.fed.us/projects/hfi/science.shtml. Accessed 29 March 2012
71. Victor P (2008) Managing without growth. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK
72. Wackernagel M, Schulz N, Deumling D et al (2002) Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy. PNAS 99:9266-9271
73. Wagenaar W (1978) Intuitive prediction of growth. In: Burkhardt D, Ittelson W (eds) Environmental assessment of socioeconomic systems. Plenum, New York, NY
74. Wagenaar W, Sagaria S (1975) Misperception of exponential growth. Percept Psychophys 18:416-422
75. Webster D (2002) The fall of the ancient Maya. Thames and Hudson, New York, NY
76. Whybrow P (2005) American mania: when more is not enough. WW Norton, New York, NY
77. Wigley T (2005) The climate change commitment. Science 307:1766-1769
78. Wilmshurst J, Hunt T, Lipo C, Anderson A (2011) High-precision radiocarbon dating shows recent and rapid initial human colonization of East Polynesia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(5):1815-1820
79. Wilde G (2002) Target risk 2: a new psychology of safety and health. PDE Publications, New York, NY
80. World Bank (2010) http://databank.worldbank.org. Accessed 29 March 2012
81. World Commission on Dams (2000) Dams and development. Earthscan, London, UK